27 resultados para systems-based simulation


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OBJECTIVE: In search of an optimal compression therapy for venous leg ulcers, a systematic review and meta-analysis was performed of randomized controlled trials (RCT) comparing compression systems based on stockings (MCS) with divers bandages. METHODS: RCT were retrieved from six sources and reviewed independently. The primary endpoint, completion of healing within a defined time frame, and the secondary endpoints, time to healing, and pain were entered into a meta-analysis using the tools of the Cochrane Collaboration. Additional subjective endpoints were summarized. RESULTS: Eight RCT (published 1985-2008) fulfilled the predefined criteria. Data presentation was adequate and showed moderate heterogeneity. The studies included 692 patients (21-178/study, mean age 61 years, 56% women). Analyzed were 688 ulcerated legs, present for 1 week to 9 years, sizing 1 to 210 cm(2). The observation period ranged from 12 to 78 weeks. Patient and ulcer characteristics were evenly distributed in three studies, favored the stocking groups in four, and the bandage group in one. Data on the pressure exerted by stockings and bandages were reported in seven and two studies, amounting to 31-56 and 27-49 mm Hg, respectively. The proportion of ulcers healed was greater with stockings than with bandages (62.7% vs 46.6%; P < .00001). The average time to healing (seven studies, 535 patients) was 3 weeks shorter with stockings (P = .0002). In no study performed bandages better than MCS. Pain was assessed in three studies (219 patients) revealing an important advantage of stockings (P < .0001). Other subjective parameters and issues of nursing revealed an advantage of MCS as well. CONCLUSIONS: Leg compression with stockings is clearly better than compression with bandages, has a positive impact on pain, and is easier to use.

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Type III secretion systems of Gram-negative bacteria are specific export machineries for virulence factors which allow their translocation to eukaryotic cells. Since they correlate with bacterial pathogenicity, their presence is used as a general indicator of bacterial virulence. By comparing the genetic relationship of the major type III secretion systems we found the family of genes encoding the inner-membrane channel proteins represented by the Yersinia enterocolitica lcrD (synonym yscV) and its homologous genes from other species an ideal component for establishing a general detection approach for type III secretion systems. Based on the genes of the lcrD family we developed gene probes for Gram-negative human, animal and plant pathogens. The probes comprise lcrD from Y. enterocolitica, sepA from enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, invA from Salmonella typhimurium, mxiA from Shigella sonnei, as well as hrcV from Erwinia amylovora. In addition we included as a control probe the flhA gene from E. coli K-12 to validate our approach. FlhA is part of the flagellar export apparatus which shows a high degree of similarity with type III secretions systems, but is not involved in pathogenicity. The probes were evaluated by screening a series of pathogenic as well as non-pathogenic bacteria. The probes detected type III secretion in pathogens where such systems were either known or were expected to be present, whereas no positive hybridization signals could be found in non-pathogenic Gram-negative bacteria. Gram-positive bacteria were devoid of known type III secretion systems. No interference due to the genetic similarity between the type III secretion system and the flagellar export apparatus was observed. However, potential type III secretion systems could be detected in bacteria where no such systems have been described yet. The presented approach provides therefore a useful tool for the assessment of the virulence potential of bacterial isolates of human, animal and plant origin. Moreover, it is a powerful means for a first safety assessment of poorly characterized strains intended to be used in biotechnological applications.

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Mapping ecosystem services (ES) and their trade-offs is a key requirement for informed decision making for land use planning and management of natural resources that aim to move towards increasing the sustainability of landscapes. The negotiations of the purposes of landscapes and the services they should provide are difficult as there is an increasing number of stakeholders active at different levels with a variety of interests present on one particular landscape.Traditionally, land cover data is at the basis for mapping and spatial monitoring of ecosystem services. In light of complex landscapes it is however questionable whether land cover per se and as a spatial base unit is suitable for monitoring and management at the meso-scale. Often the characteristics of a landscape are defined by prevalence, composition and specific spatial and temporal patterns of different land cover types. The spatial delineation of shifting cultivation agriculture represents a prominent example of a land use system with its different land use intensities that requires alternative methodologies that go beyond the common remote sensing approaches of pixel-based land cover analysis due to the spatial and temporal dynamics of rotating cultivated and fallow fields.Against this background we advocate that adopting a landscape perspective to spatial planning and decision making offers new space for negotiation and collaboration, taking into account the needs of local resource users, and of the global community. For this purpose we introduce landscape mosaicsdefined as new spatial unit describing generalized land use types. Landscape mosaics have allowed us to chart different land use systems and land use intensities and permitted us to delineate changes in these land use systems based on changes of external claims on these landscapes. The underlying idea behindthe landscape mosaics is to use land cover data typically derived from remote sensing data and to analyse and classify spatial patterns of this land cover data using a moving window approach. We developed the landscape mosaics approach in tropical, forest dominated landscapesparticularly shifting cultivation areas and present examples ofour work from northern Laos, eastern Madagascarand Yunnan Province in China.

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Long-term electrocardiography (ECG) featuring adequate atrial and ventricular signal quality is highly desirable. Routinely used surface leads are limited in atrial signal sensitivity and recording capability impeding complete ECG delineation, i.e. in the presence of supraventricular arrhythmias. Long-term esophageal ECG might overcome these limitations but requires a dedicated lead system and recorder design. To this end, we analysed multiple-lead esophageal ECGs with respect to signal quality by describing the ECG waves as a function of the insertion level, interelectrode distance, electrode shape and amplifier's input range. The results derived from clinical data show that two bipolar esophageal leads, an atrial lead with short (15 mm) interelectrode distance and a ventricular lead with long (80 mm) interelectrode distance provide non-inferior ventricular signal strength and superior atrial signal strength compared to standard surface lead II. High atrial signal slope in particular is observed with the atrial esophageal lead. The proposed esophageal lead system in combination with an increased recorder input range of ±20 mV minimizes signal loss due to excessive electrode motion typically observed in esophageal ECGs. The design proposal might help to standardize long-term esophageal ECG registrations and facilitate novel ECG classification systems based on the independent detection of ventricular and atrial electrical activity.

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Textbooks divide between human memory systems based on consciousness. Hippocampus is thought to support only conscious encoding, while neocortex supports both conscious and unconscious encoding. We tested whether processing modes, not consciousness, divide between memory systems in three neuroimaging experiments with 11 amnesic patients (mean age = 45.55 years, standard deviation = 8.74, range = 23-60) and 11 matched healthy control subjects. Examined processing modes were single item versus relational encoding with only relational encoding hypothesized to depend on hippocampus. Participants encoded and later retrieved either single words or new relations between words. Consciousness of encoding was excluded by subliminal (invisible) word presentation. Amnesic patients and controls performed equally well on the single item task activating prefrontal cortex. But only the controls succeeded on the relational task activating the hippocampus, while amnesic patients failed as a group. Hence, unconscious relational encoding, but not unconscious single item encoding, depended on hippocampus. Yet, three patients performed normally on unconscious relational encoding in spite of amnesia capitalizing on spared hippocampal tissue and connections to language cortex. This pattern of results suggests that processing modes divide between memory systems, while consciousness divides between levels of function within a memory system.

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BACKGROUND Because computed tomography (CT) has advantages for visualizing the manifestation of necrosis and local complications, a series of scoring systems based on CT manifestations have been developed for assessing the clinical outcomes of acute pancreatitis (AP), including the CT severity index (CTSI), modified CTSI, etc. Despite the internationally accepted CTSI having been successfully used to predict the overall mortality and disease severity of AP, recent literature has revealed the limitations of the CTSI. Using the Delphi method, we establish a new scoring system based on retrocrural space involvement (RCSI), and compared its effectiveness at evaluating the mortality and severity of AP with that of the CTSI. METHODS We reviewed CT images of 257 patients with AP taken within 3-5 days of admission in 2012. The RCSI scoring system, which includes assessment of infectious conditions involving the retrocrural space and the adjacent pleural cavity, was established using the Delphi method. Two radiologists independently assessed the RCSI and CTSI scores. The predictive points of the RCSI and CTSI scoring systems in evaluating the mortality and severity of AP were estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The RCSI score can accurately predict the mortality and disease severity. The area under the ROC curve for the RCSI versus CTSI score was 0.962±0.011 versus 0.900±0.021 for predicting the mortality, and 0.888±0.025 versus 0.904±0.020 for predicting the severity of AP. Applying ROC analysis to our data showed that a RCSI score of 4 was the best cutoff value, above which mortality could be identified. CONCLUSION The Delphi method was innovatively adopted to establish a scoring system to predict the clinical outcome of AP. The RCSI scoring system can predict the mortality of AP better than the CTSI system, and the severity of AP equally as well.

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1 We used simulated and experimental plant populations to analyse mortality-driven pattern formation under size-dependent competition. Larger plants had an advantage under size-asymmetric but not under symmetric competition. Initial patterns were random or clumped. 2 The simulations were individual-based and spatially explicit. Size-dependent competition was modelled with different rules to partition overlapping zones of influence. 3 The experiment used genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana with different morphological plasticity and hence size-dependent competition. Compared with wild types, transgenic individuals over-expressed phytochrome A and had decreased plasticity because of disabled phytochrome-mediated shade avoidance. Therefore, competition among transgenics was more asymmetric compared with wild-types. 4 Density-dependent mortality under symmetric competition did not substantially change the initial spatial pattern. Conversely, simulations under asymmetric competition and experimental patterns of transgenic over-expressors showed patterns of survivors that deviated substantially from random mortality independent of initial patterns. 5 Small-scale initial patterns of wild types were regular rather than random or clumped. We hypothesize that this small-scale regularity may be explained by early shade avoidance of seedlings in their cotyledon stage. 6 Our experimental results support predictions from an individual-based simulation model and support the conclusion that regular spatial patterns of surviving individuals should be interpreted as evidence for strong, asymmetric competitive interactions and subsequent density-dependent mortality.

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OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') compared with ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated ('Option B'). DESIGN Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. METHODS Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10 000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterized the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of antenatal and postnatal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. RESULTS During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared with 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account.

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Cloud Computing has evolved to become an enabler for delivering access to large scale distributed applications running on managed network-connected computing systems. This makes possible hosting Distributed Enterprise Information Systems (dEISs) in cloud environments, while enforcing strict performance and quality of service requirements, defined using Service Level Agreements (SLAs). {SLAs} define the performance boundaries of distributed applications, and are enforced by a cloud management system (CMS) dynamically allocating the available computing resources to the cloud services. We present two novel VM-scaling algorithms focused on dEIS systems, which optimally detect most appropriate scaling conditions using performance-models of distributed applications derived from constant-workload benchmarks, together with SLA-specified performance constraints. We simulate the VM-scaling algorithms in a cloud simulator and compare against trace-based performance models of dEISs. We compare a total of three SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms (one using prediction mechanisms) based on a real-world application scenario involving a large variable number of users. Our results show that it is beneficial to use autoregressive predictive SLA-driven scaling algorithms in cloud management systems for guaranteeing performance invariants of distributed cloud applications, as opposed to using only reactive SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms.

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The traditional Newton method for solving nonlinear operator equations in Banach spaces is discussed within the context of the continuous Newton method. This setting makes it possible to interpret the Newton method as a discrete dynamical system and thereby to cast it in the framework of an adaptive step size control procedure. In so doing, our goal is to reduce the chaotic behavior of the original method without losing its quadratic convergence property close to the roots. The performance of the modified scheme is illustrated with various examples from algebraic and differential equations.

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Syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems currently exploit various sources of health-related data, most of which are collected for purposes other than surveillance (e.g. economic). Several European SyS systems use data collected during meat inspection for syndromic surveillance of animal health, as some diseases may be more easily detected post-mortem than at their point of origin or during the ante-mortem inspection upon arrival at the slaughterhouse. In this paper we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a quasi-Poisson regression (also known as an improved Farrington) algorithm for the detection of disease outbreaks during post-mortem inspection of slaughtered animals. When parameterizing the algorithm based on the retrospective analyses of 6 years of historic data, the probability of detection was satisfactory for large (range 83-445 cases) outbreaks but poor for small (range 20-177 cases) outbreaks. Varying the amount of historical data used to fit the algorithm can help increasing the probability of detection for small outbreaks. However, while the use of a 0·975 quantile generated a low false-positive rate, in most cases, more than 50% of outbreak cases had already occurred at the time of detection. High variance observed in the whole carcass condemnations time-series, and lack of flexibility in terms of the temporal distribution of simulated outbreaks resulting from low reporting frequency (monthly), constitute major challenges for early detection of outbreaks in the livestock population based on meat inspection data. Reporting frequency should be increased in the future to improve timeliness of the SyS system while increased sensitivity may be achieved by integrating meat inspection data into a multivariate system simultaneously evaluating multiple sources of data on livestock health.