Does ‘better’ discounting lead to ‘worse’ outcomes in long-run decisions? The dilemma of hyperbolic discounting

The shortcomings of conventional discounting, especially in the context of long-run environmental problems, have been extensively discussed in the literature. Recently, hyperbolic discounting, i. e. discounting at declining instead of constant discount rates, has attracted a lot of interest among both scientists and politicians. Although there are compelling arguments for employing hyperbolic discounting, there are also pitfalls, which have to be pointed out. In this paper I show that the problem of time-inconsistency, an inherent characteristics of hyperbolic discounting, leads to a potential clash between economic efficiency and intergenerational equity. As an example, I refer to the weak progress in the controlling of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto protocol. As the problem of time-inconsistency cannot be solved on economic grounds alone, there is a need for an intergenerational moral commitment.

Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

Elemental and Lead Isotopic Data of Copper Finds from the Singen Cemetery, Germany – a Methodological Approach to Investigate Early Bronze Age Trade Networks

We report a trace element - Pb isotope analytical (LIA) database on the "Singen Copper", a peculiar type of copper found in the North Alpine realm, from its type locality, the Early Bronze Age Singen Cemetery (Germany). What distinguishes “Singen Copper” from other coeval copper types? (i) is it a discrete metal lot with a uniform provenance (if so, can its provenance be constrained)? (ii) was it manufactured by a special, unique metallurgical process that can be discriminated from others? Trace element concentrations can give clues on the ore types that were mined, but they can be modified (more or less intentionally) by metallurgical operations. A more robust indicator are the ratios of chemically similar elements (e.g. Co/Ni, Bi/Sb, etc.), since they should remain nearly constant during metallurgical operations, and are expected to behave homogeneously in each mineral of a given mining area, but their partition amongst the different mineral species is known to cause strong inter-element fractionations. We tested the trace element ratio pattern predicted by geochemical arguments on the Brixlegg mining area. Brixlegg itself is not compatible with the Singen Copper objects, and we only report it because it is a rare instance of a mining area for which sufficient trace element analyses are available in the literature. We observe that As/Sb in fahlerz varies by a factor 1.8 above/below median; As/Sb in enargite varies by a factor of 2.5 with a 10 times higher median. Most of the 102 analyzed metal objects from Singen are Sb-Ni-rich, corresponding to “antimony-nickel copper” of the literature. Other trace element concentrations vary by > 100 times, ratios by factors > 50. Pb isotopic compositions are all significantly different from each other. They do not form a single linear array and require > 3 ore batches that certainly do not derive from one single mining area. Our data suggest a heterogeneous provenance of “Singen copper”. Archaeological information limits the scope to Central European sources. LIA requires a diverse supply network from many mining localities, including possibly Brittany. Trace element ratios show more heterogeneity than LIA; this can be explained either by deliberate selection of one particular ore mineral (from very many sources) or by processing of assorted ore minerals from a smaller number of sources, with the unintentional effect that the quality of the copper would not be constant, as the metallurgical properties of alloys would vary with trace element concentrations.

Avoidable hospitalizations in Switzerland: a small area analysis on regional variation, density of physicians, hospital supply and rurality.

BACKGROUND Avoidable hospitalizations (AH) are hospital admissions for diseases and conditions that could have been prevented by appropriate ambulatory care. We examine regional variation of AH in Switzerland and the factors that determine AH. METHODS We used hospital service areas, and data from 2008-2010 hospital discharges in Switzerland to examine regional variation in AH. Age and sex standardized AH were the outcome variable, and year of admission, primary care physician density, medical specialist density, rurality, hospital bed density and type of hospital reimbursement system were explanatory variables in our multilevel poisson regression. RESULTS Regional differences in AH were as high as 12-fold. Poisson regression showed significant increase of all AH over time. There was a significantly lower rate of all AH in areas with more primary care physicians. Rates increased in areas with more specialists. Rates of all AH also increased where the proportion of residences in rural communities increased. Regional hospital capacity and type of hospital reimbursement did not have significant associations. Inconsistent patterns of significant determinants were found for disease specific analyses. CONCLUSION The identification of regions with high and low AH rates is a starting point for future studies on unwarranted medical procedures, and may help to reduce their incidence. AH have complex multifactorial origins and this study demonstrates that rurality and physician density are relevant determinants. The results are helpful to improve the performance of the outpatient sector with emphasis on local context. Rural and urban differences in health care delivery remain a cause of concern in Switzerland.

Studying changes in life circumstances and personality: It's about time

Most theories of personality development posit that changes in life circumstances (e.g. due to major life events) can lead to changes in personality, but few studies have examined the exact time course of these changes. In this article, we argue that time needs to be considered explicitly in theories and empirical studies on personality development. We discuss six notions on the role of time in personality development. First, people can differ before the event. Second, change can be non-linear and discontinuous. Third, change can be reversible. Fourth, change can occur before the event. Fifth, control groups are needed to disentangle age-related and event-related changes. Sixth, we need to move beyond examining single major life events and study the effects of non-normative events, non-events, multiple events, and minor events on personality. We conclude by summarizing the methodological and theoretical implications of these notions.

Consumption and food production in crisis time: Swiss consumption co-operations as farmers at the End of World War I

During the last two years of World War I food supply in Switzerland declined and caused shortcomings in consume, leading to social distress and conflict. Mainly two important factors caused these problems: First, Switzerland was highly dependent on food imports and during the war traditional supply lines faded. Second, weather extremes in the years 1916–1917 caused crop failure all over Europe and North America, which intensified the decline of food trade between the nations. In 1918 a conflict between classic urban consumers, such as workers, and famers erupted due to the food shortcomings and led to a lasting discord between urban and agrarian regions in Switzerland. But there was not only disharmony and conflict between the urban and agrarian regions. As a matter of fact several agents (urban and agrarian) interested in presenting adequate coping strategies to overcome the food shortages developed ideas of alternative ways of food production and supply since 1917. The aim of the paper is to outline these strategies that were undertaken to create a new era of food production that was not solely dependent on the agrarian sector or the import-trade. Actual growing of vegetables in estate areas is an important, but just one, factor of establishing a new system of food production, distribution and consume. The market-leading grocery stores in Switzerland nowadays (Coop and Migros) started their business during that time as co-operatives establishing new forms of distribution and food-production. So the interest of the paper is not only in actual «urban farming», but it wants to share some light on how swiss urban and agrarian spheres overlapped their functions in order to create a modern system of agro food-chains at the beginning of the interwar period.

Efficiency of frost-cracking processes through space and time: An example from the eastern Italian Alps

It is widely accepted that climate has a strong impact and exerts important feedbacks on erosional processes and sediment transport mechanisms. However, the extent at which climate influences erosion is still a matter of debate. In this paper we test whether frost-cracking processes and related temperature variations can influence the sediment production and surface erosion in a small catchment situated in the eastern Italian Alps. To this extent, we first present a geomorphic map of the region that we complement with published 10Be-based denudation rates. We then apply a preexisting heat-flow model in order to analyze the variations of the frost-cracking intensity (FCI) in the study area, which could have controlled the sediment production in the basin. Finally, we compare the model results with the pattern of denudation rates and Quaternary deposits in the geomorphic map. The model results, combined with field observations, mapping, and quantitative geomorphic analyses, reveal that frost-cracking processes have had a primary role in the production of sediment where the intensity of sediment supply has been dictated and limited by the combined effect of temperature variations and conditions of bedrock preservation. These results highlight the importance of a yet poorly understood process for the production of sediment in mountain areas.

Transition from adolescence to adulthood in congenital heart disease - Many roads lead to Rome

More than 90% of children born with heart defects reach adulthood. They continue to require specialized medical care. In most countries, their care has to be transferred from the pediatric care environment to specialized adult clinics. This transfer of care usually occurs at a time when adolescents become young adults. Supporting adolescents and emerging adults with congenital heart disease through transition has been recognized as an important task of their treating teams in recent years. An environment where adolescents feel welcome and where education and patient participation are fostered is crucial. For an optimal transition process, patients, their families and all health care providers need to be involved. Different models for transition programs have emerged, depending on local policies and resources. The authors offer insight into established transition programs in Bern and Zurich, Switzerland. Advantages and challenges of different models of care and transition programs are presented.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland: A nationwide study.

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. It has been hypothesized that infections may be involved and that mini-epidemics thereof could result in space-time clustering of incident cases. Most previous studies support spatio-temporal clustering for leukaemia, while results for other diagnostic groups remain mixed. Few studies have corrected for uneven regional population shifts which can lead to spurious detection of clustering. We examined whether there is space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland identifying cases diagnosed at age <16 years between 1985 and 2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Knox tests were performed on geocoded residence at birth and diagnosis separately for leukaemia, acute lymphoid leukaemia (ALL), lymphomas, tumours of the central nervous system, neuroblastomas and soft tissue sarcomas. We used Baker's Max statistic to correct for multiple testing and randomly sampled time-, sex- and age-matched controls from the resident population to correct for uneven regional population shifts. We observed space-time clustering of childhood leukaemia at birth (Baker's Max p = 0.045) but not at diagnosis (p = 0.98). Clustering was strongest for a spatial lag of <1 km and a temporal lag of <2 years (Observed/expected close pairs: 124/98; p Knox test = 0.003). A similar clustering pattern was observed for ALL though overall evidence was weaker (Baker's Max p = 0.13). Little evidence of clustering was found for other diagnostic groups (p > 0.2). Our study suggests that childhood leukaemia tends to cluster in space-time due to an etiologic factor present in early life.

Redistribution of cobalt and nickel in detached wheat shoots: effects of steam-girdling and of cobalt and nickel supply

Detached wheat shoots (ear with peduncle and flag leaf) were incubated for 4 d in a solution containing 1 mM RbCl and 1 mM SrCl2 as well as 10, 40 or 160 µM NiCl2 and CoCl2. The phloem of some plants was interrupted by steam-girdling the stem below the ear to distinguish between xylem and phloem transport. The phloem-immobile Sr flowed mainly to the leaf lamina and to the glumes via the xylem. The Sr transport was not sensitive to steam-girdling. In contrast, the phloem-mobile Rb accumulated during the incubation time mainly in the stem and the leaf sheath. The Rb transport to the grains was impaired by steam-girdling as well as by elevated Ni and Co concentrations in the incubation solution indicating that Rb was transported via the phloem to the maturing grains and that this transport was affected by the heavy metals. Ni was removed more efficiently from the xylem in the peduncle than Co (but far less efficiently than Rb). It became evident that the two heavy metals can also be transferred from the xylem to the phloem in the stem of wheat and reach the maturing grains via the phloem.