77 resultados para risk analysis


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Background: Body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for endometrial cancer. We quantified the risk and investigated whether the association differed by use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), menopausal status, and histologic type. Methods: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (1966 to December 2009) to identify prospective studies of BMI and incident endometrial cancer. We did random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regressions, and generalized least square regressions for trend estimations assuming linear, and piecewise linear, relationships. Results: Twenty-four studies (17,710 cases) were analyzed; 9 studies contributed to analyses by HRT, menopausal status, or histologic type, all published since 2003. In the linear model, the overall risk ratio (RR) per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.52–1.68), P < 0.0001. In the piecewise model, RRs compared with a normal BMI were 1.22 (1.19–1.24), 2.09 (1.94–2.26), 4.36 (3.75–5.10), and 9.11 (7.26–11.51) for BMIs of 27, 32, 37, and 42 kg/m2, respectively. The association was stronger in never HRT users than in ever users: RRs were 1.90 (1.57–2.31) and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.06–1.31) with P for interaction ¼ 0.003. In the piecewise model, the RR in never users was 20.70 (8.28–51.84) at BMI 42 kg/m2, compared with never users at normal BMI. The association was not affected by menopausal status (P ¼ 0.34) or histologic type (P ¼ 0.26). Conclusions: HRT use modifies the BMI-endometrial cancer risk association. Impact: These findings support the hypothesis that hyperestrogenia is an important mechanism underlying the BMI-endometrial cancer association, whilst the presence of residual risk in HRT users points to the role of additional systems. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(12); 3119–30.

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Unexplained differences between classes of antihypertensive drugs in their effectiveness in preventing stroke might be due to class effects on intraindividual variability in blood pressure. We did a systematic review to assess any such effects in randomised controlled trials.

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Obesity is a multifactorial trait, which comprises an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of the current work is to study the complex etiology beneath obesity and identify genetic variations and/or factors related to nutrition that contribute to its variability. To this end, a set of more than 2300 white subjects who participated in a nutrigenetics study was used. For each subject a total of 63 factors describing genetic variants related to CVD (24 in total), gender, and nutrition (38 in total), e.g. average daily intake in calories and cholesterol, were measured. Each subject was categorized according to body mass index (BMI) as normal (BMI ≤ 25) or overweight (BMI > 25). Two artificial neural network (ANN) based methods were designed and used towards the analysis of the available data. These corresponded to i) a multi-layer feed-forward ANN combined with a parameter decreasing method (PDM-ANN), and ii) a multi-layer feed-forward ANN trained by a hybrid method (GA-ANN) which combines genetic algorithms and the popular back-propagation training algorithm.

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The efficacy of durable polymer drug-eluting stents (DES) is delivered at the expense of delayed healing of the stented vessel. Biodegradable polymer DES aim to avoid this shortcoming and may potentially improve long-term clinical outcomes, with benefit expected to accrue over time. We sought to compare long-term outcomes in patients treated with biodegradable polymer DES vs. durable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents (SES).

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Background In Switzerland there are about 150,000 equestrians. Horse related injuries, including head and spinal injuries, are frequently treated at our level I trauma centre. Objectives To analyse injury patterns, protective factors, and risk factors related to horse riding, and to define groups of safer riders and those at greater risk Methods We present a retrospective and a case-control survey at conducted a tertiary trauma centre in Bern, Switzerland. Injured equestrians from July 2000 - June 2006 were retrospectively classified by injury pattern and neurological symptoms. Injured equestrians from July-December 2008 were prospectively collected using a questionnaire with 17 variables. The same questionnaire was applied in non-injured controls. Multiple logistic regression was performed, and combined risk factors were calculated using inference trees. Results Retrospective survey A total of 528 injuries occured in 365 patients. The injury pattern revealed as follows: extremities (32%: upper 17%, lower 15%), head (24%), spine (14%), thorax (9%), face (9%), pelvis (7%) and abdomen (2%). Two injuries were fatal. One case resulted in quadriplegia, one in paraplegia. Case-control survey 61 patients and 102 controls (patients: 72% female, 28% male; controls: 63% female, 37% male) were included. Falls were most frequent (65%), followed by horse kicks (19%) and horse bites (2%). Variables statistically significant for the controls were: Older age (p = 0.015), male gender (p = 0.04) and holding a diploma in horse riding (p = 0.004). Inference trees revealed typical groups less and more likely to suffer injury. Conclusions Experience with riding and having passed a diploma in horse riding seem to be protective factors. Educational levels and injury risk should be graded within an educational level-injury risk index.

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Genome-wide association studies and candidate gene studies in ulcerative colitis have identified 18 susceptibility loci. We conducted a meta-analysis of six ulcerative colitis genome-wide association study datasets, comprising 6,687 cases and 19,718 controls, and followed up the top association signals in 9,628 cases and 12,917 controls. We identified 29 additional risk loci (P < 5 × 10(-8)), increasing the number of ulcerative colitis-associated loci to 47. After annotating associated regions using GRAIL, expression quantitative trait loci data and correlations with non-synonymous SNPs, we identified many candidate genes that provide potentially important insights into disease pathogenesis, including IL1R2, IL8RA-IL8RB, IL7R, IL12B, DAP, PRDM1, JAK2, IRF5, GNA12 and LSP1. The total number of confirmed inflammatory bowel disease risk loci is now 99, including a minimum of 28 shared association signals between Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis.

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BACKGROUND: Mortality and morbidity are particularly high in the building industry. The annual rate of non-fatal occupational accidents in Switzerland is 1,133 per 100,000 inhabitants. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the electronic database of a university emergency centre. Between 2001 and 2011, 782 occupational accidents to construction workers were recorded and analysed using specific demographic and medical keywords. RESULTS: Most patients were aged 30-39 (30.4%). 66.4% of the injured workers were foreigners. This is almost twice as high as the overall proportion of foreigners in Switzerland or in the Swiss labour market. 16% of the Swiss construction workers and 8% of the foreign construction workers suffered a severe injury with ISS >15. There was a trend for workers aged 60 and above to suffer an accident with a high ISS (p = 0.089). CONCLUSIONS: As in other European countries, most patients were in their thirties. Older construction workers suffered fewer injuries, although these tended to be more severe. The injuries were evenly distributed through the working days of the week. A special effort should be made that current health and safety measures are understood and applied by foreign and older construction workers.

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To determine to what extent allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (alloHSCT) quantitatively reduces relapse in acute myeloid leukemia with monosomal karyotype (MK-AML) compared with alternative postremission therapy and how it compares with other cytogenetic subcategories.

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Background Falls of elderly people may cause permanent disability or death. Particularly susceptible are elderly patients in rehabilitation hospitals. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify falls prediction tools available for assessing elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. Methods and Findings We searched six electronic databases using comprehensive search strategies developed for each database. Estimates of sensitivity and specificity were plotted in ROC space graphs and pooled across studies. Our search identified three studies which assessed the prediction properties of falls prediction tools in a total of 754 elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. Only the STRATIFY tool was assessed in all three studies; the other identified tools (PJC-FRAT and DOWNTON) were assessed by a single study. For a STRATIFY cut-score of two, pooled sensitivity was 73% (95%CI 63 to 81%) and pooled specificity was 42% (95%CI 34 to 51%). An indirect comparison of the tools across studies indicated that the DOWNTON tool has the highest sensitivity (92%), while the PJC-FRAT offers the best balance between sensitivity and specificity (73% and 75%, respectively). All studies presented major methodological limitations. Conclusions We did not identify any tool which had an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity, or which were clearly better than a simple clinical judgment of risk of falling. The limited number of identified studies with major methodological limitations impairs sound conclusions on the usefulness of falls risk prediction tools in geriatric rehabilitation hospitals.

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American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for the diagnosis and management of heart failure recommend investigating exacerbating conditions such as thyroid dysfunction, but without specifying the impact of different thyroid-stimulation hormone (TSH) levels. Limited prospective data exist on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and heart failure events.

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Noninvasive stress testing might guide the use of aspirin and statins for primary prevention of coronary heart disease, but it is unclear if such a strategy would be cost effective.

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Prognostic assessment is important for the management of patients with a pulmonary embolism (PE). A number of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) have been proposed for stratifying PE mortality risk. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the performance of prognostic CPRs in identifying a low-risk PE.

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The benefit of the coronary collateral circulation (natural bypass network) on survival is well established. However, data derived from smaller studies indicates that coronary collaterals may increase the risk for restenosis after percutaneous coronary interventions. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies was to explore the impact of the collateral circulation on the risk for restenosis.