Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Real-life results of balloon kyphoplasty for vertebral compression fractures from the SWISSspine registry

BACKGROUND CONTEXT The Swiss Federal Office of Public Health mandated a nationwide health technology assessment-registry for balloon kyphoplasty (BKP) for decision making on reimbursement of these interventions. The early results of the registry led to a permanent coverage of BKP by basic health insurance. The documentation was continued for further evidence generation. PURPOSE This analysis reports on the 1 year results of patients after BKP treatment. STUDY DESIGN Prospective multicenter observational case series. PATIENT SAMPLE The data on 625 cases with 819 treated vertebrae were documented from March 2005 to May 2012. OUTCOME MEASURES Surgeon-administered outcome instruments were primary intervention form for BKP and the follow-up form; patient self-reported measures were EuroQol-5D questionnaire, North American Spine Society outcome instrument /Core Outcome Measures Index (including visual analog scale), and a comorbidity questionnaire. Outcome measures were back pain, medication, quality of life (QoL), cement extrusions, and new fractures within the first postoperative year. METHODS Data were recorded preoperatively and at 3 to 6-month and 1-year follow-ups. Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used for comparison of pre- with postoperative measurements. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors with a significant influence on the outcome. RESULTS Seventy percent of patients were women with mean age of 71 years (range, 18-91 years); mean age of men was 65 years (range, 15-93 years). Significant and clinically relevant reduction of back pain, improvement of QoL, and reduction of pain killer consumption was seen within the first postoperative year. Preoperative back pain decreased from 69.3 to 29.0 at 3 to 6-month and remained unchanged at 1-year follow-ups. Consequently, QoL improved from 0.23 to 0.71 and 0.75 at the same follow-up intervals. The overall vertebra-based cement extrusion rates with and without extrusions into intervertebral discs were 22.1% and 15.3%, respectively. Symptomatic cement extrusions with radiculopathy were five (0.8%). A new vertebral fracture within a year from the BKP surgery was observed in 18.4% of the patients. CONCLUSIONS The results of the largest observational study for BKP so far are consistent with published randomized trials and systematic reviews. In this routine health care setting, BKP is safe and effective in reducing pain, improving QoL, and lowering pain_killer consumption and has an acceptable rate of cement extrusions. Postoperative outcome results show clear and significant clinical improvement at early follow-up that remain stable during the first postoperative year.

Reactive mass transport modelling of a three-dimensional vertical fault zone with a finger-like convective flow regime

For a three-dimensional vertically-oriented fault zone, we consider the coupled effects of fluid flow, heat transfer and reactive mass transport, to investigate the patterns of fluid flow, temperature distribution, mineral alteration and chemically induced porosity changes. We show, analytically and numerically, that finger-like convection patterns can arise in a vertically-oriented fault zone. The onset and patterns of convective fluid flow are controlled by the Rayleigh number which is a function of the thermal properties of the fluid and the rock, the vertical temperature gradient, and the height and the permeability of the fault zone. Vigorous fluid flow causes low temperature gradients over a large region of the fault zone. In such a case, flow across lithological interfaces becomes the most important mechanism for the formation of sharp chemical reaction fronts. The degree of rock buffering, the extent and intensity of alteration, the alteration mineralogy and in some cases the formation of ore deposits are controlled by the magnitude of the flow velocity across these compositional interfaces in the rock. This indicates that alteration patterns along compositional boundaries in the rock may provide some insights into the convection pattern. The advective mass and heat exchanges between the fault zone and the wallrock depend on the permeability contrast between the fault zone and the wallrock. A high permeability contrast promotes focussed convective flow within the fault zone and diffusive exchange of heat and chemical reactants between the fault zone and the wallrock. However, a more gradual permeability change may lead to a regional-scale convective flow system where the flow pattern in the fault affects large-scale fluid flow, mass transport and chemical alteration in the wallrocks

A framework for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale

The International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) is striving towards substantively improving our ability to robustly understand historical land surface air temperature change at all scales. A key recently completed first step has been collating all available records into a comprehensive open access, traceable and version-controlled databank. The crucial next step is to maximise the value of the collated data through a robust international framework of benchmarking and assessment for product intercomparison and uncertainty estimation. We focus on uncertainties arising from the presence of inhomogeneities in monthly mean land surface temperature data and the varied methodological choices made by various groups in building homogeneous temperature products. The central facet of the benchmarking process is the creation of global-scale synthetic analogues to the real-world database where both the "true" series and inhomogeneities are known (a luxury the real-world data do not afford us). Hence, algorithmic strengths and weaknesses can be meaningfully quantified and conditional inferences made about the real-world climate system. Here we discuss the necessary framework for developing an international homogenisation benchmarking system on the global scale for monthly mean temperatures. The value of this framework is critically dependent upon the number of groups taking part and so we strongly advocate involvement in the benchmarking exercise from as many data analyst groups as possible to make the best use of this substantial effort.

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant-functional types and land-cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling

We present quantitative reconstructions of regional vegetation cover in north-western Europe, western Europe north of the Alps, and eastern Europe for five time windows in the Holocene around 6k, 3k, 0.5k, 0.2k, and 0.05k calendar years before present (bp)] at a 1 degrees x1 degrees spatial scale with the objective of producing vegetation descriptions suitable for climate modelling. The REVEALS model was applied on 636 pollen records from lakes and bogs to reconstruct the past cover of 25 plant taxa grouped into 10 plant-functional types and three land-cover types evergreen trees, summer-green (deciduous) trees, and open land]. The model corrects for some of the biases in pollen percentages by using pollen productivity estimates and fall speeds of pollen, and by applying simple but robust models of pollen dispersal and deposition. The emerging patterns of tree migration and deforestation between 6k bp and modern time in the REVEALS estimates agree with our general understanding of the vegetation history of Europe based on pollen percentages. However, the degree of anthropogenic deforestation (i.e. cover of cultivated and grazing land) at 3k, 0.5k, and 0.2k bp is significantly higher than deduced from pollen percentages. This is also the case at 6k in some parts of Europe, in particular Britain and Ireland. Furthermore, the relationship between summer-green and evergreen trees, and between individual tree taxa, differs significantly when expressed as pollen percentages or as REVEALS estimates of tree cover. For instance, when Pinus is dominant over Picea as pollen percentages, Picea is dominant over Pinus as REVEALS estimates. These differences play a major role in the reconstruction of European landscapes and for the study of land cover-climate interactions, biodiversity and human resources.

The Career Satisfaction Scale: Longitudinal measurement invariance and latent growth analysis

The present research analyses the adequacy of the widely used Career Satisfaction Scale (CSS; Greenhaus, Parasuraman, & Wormley, 1990) for measuring change over time. We used data of a sample of 1,273 professionals over a 5-year time period. First, we tested longitudinal measurement invariance of the CSS. Second, we analysed changes in career satisfaction by means of multiple indicator latent growth modelling (MLGM). Results revealed that the CSS can be reliably used in mean change analyses. Altogether, career satisfaction was relatively stable over time; however, we found significant variance in intra-individual growth trajectories and a negative correlation between the initial level of and changes in career satisfaction. Professionals who were initially highly satisfied became less satisfied over time. Theoretical and practical implications with respect to the construct of career satisfaction and its development over time (i.e., alpha, beta, and gamma change) are discussed.

Outcome study of real-time MR-guided cervical periradicular injection therapy in an open 1.0 Tesla MRI system

PURPOSE To evaluate the accuracy, safety, and efficacy of cervical nerve root injection therapy using magnetic resonance guidance in an open 1.0 T MRI system. METHODS Between September 2009 and April 2012, a total of 21 patients (9 men, 12 women; mean age 47.1 ± 11.1 years) underwent MR-guided cervical periradicular injection for cervical radicular pain in an open 1.0 T system. An interactive proton density-weighted turbo spin echo (PDw TSE) sequence was used for real-time guidance of the MR-compatible 20-gauge injection needle. Clinical outcome was evaluated on a verbal numeric rating scale (VNRS) before injection therapy (baseline) and at 1 week and 1, 3, and 6 months during follow-up. RESULTS All procedures were technically successful and there were no major complications. The mean preinterventional VNRS score was 7.42 and exhibited a statistically significant decrease (P < 0.001) at all follow-up time points: 3.86 ± 1.53 at 1 week, 3.21 ± 2.19 at 1 month, 2.58 ± 2.54 at 3 months, and 2.76 ± 2.63 at 6 months. At 6 months, 14.3 % of the patients reported complete resolution of radicular pain and 38.1 % each had either significant (4-8 VNRS score points) or mild (1-3 VNRS score points) relief of pain; 9.5 % experienced no pain relief. CONCLUSION Magnetic resonance fluoroscopy-guided periradicular cervical spine injection is an accurate, safe, and efficacious treatment option for patients with cervical radicular pain. The technique may be a promising alternative to fluoroscopy- or CT-guided injections of the cervical spine, especially in young patients and in patients requiring repeat injections.

Time-Resolved Ultra–High Resolution Optical Coherence Tomography for Real-Time Monitoring of Selective Retina Therapy

Purpose: Selective retina therapy (SRT) is a novel treatment for retinal pathologies, solely targeting the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). During SRT, the detection of an immediate tissue reaction is challenging as tissue effects remain limited to intracellular RPE photodisruption. Time-resolved ultra-high axial resolution optical coherence tomography (OCT) is thus evaluated for the monitoring of dynamic optical changes at and around the RPE during SRT. Methods: An experimental OCT system with an ultra-high axial resolution of 1.78 µm was combined with an SRT system and time-resolved OCT M-scans of the target area were recorded from four patients undergoing SRT. OCT scans were analyzed and OCT morphology was correlated with findings in fluorescein angiography, fundus photography and cross-sectional OCT. Results: In cases where the irradiation caused RPE damage proven by fluorescein angiography, the lesions were well discernible in time-resolved OCT images but remained invisible in fundus photography and cross-sectional OCT acquired after treatment. If RPE damage was introduced, all applied SRT pulses led to detectable signal changes in the time-resolved OCT images. The extent of optical signal variation seen in the OCT data appeared to scale with the applied SRT pulse energy. Conclusion: The first clinical results proved that successful SRT irradiation induces detectable changes in the OCT M-scan signal while it remains invisible in conventional ophthalmoscopic imaging. Thus, real-time high-resolution OCT is a promising modality to monitor and analyze tissue effects introduced by selective retina therapy and may be used to guide SRT in an automatic feedback mode.

Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

The distinction between real and fictional worlds: Investigating individual differences in fantasy understanding

In this paper, two studies are reported in which children’s ability to distinguish reality from fantasy was investigated. In Experiment 1, children of different ages made pairwise comparisons of 12 pictures of fictional figures and 3 photographs of real people by evaluating on a 6-point scale how easily these figures could meet each other. The results revealed that fantasy/reality distinction develops with age: 7–8-year-old showed a fundamental categorical distinction (comparable to that of adults) whereas 3–4-year-old treated the real world like one of many worlds. In Experiment 2, we took an individual differences approach and tested 116 4–5-year-old who performed the same fantasy task. In addition, they were presented with theory-of-mind tasks and tests measuring non-verbal intelligence and language skills. The results showed that, after statistically controlling for age, non-verbal intelligence, and language skills, theory-of-mind abilities still significantly contributed to the prediction of fantasy understanding.

From quantum to classical dynamics: The relativistic O ( N ) model in the framework of the real-time functional renormalization group

We investigate the transition from unitary to dissipative dynamics in the relativistic O(N) vector model with the λ(φ2)2 interaction using the nonperturbative functional renormalization group in the real-time formalism. In thermal equilibrium, the theory is characterized by two scales, the interaction range for coherent scattering of particles and the mean free path determined by the rate of incoherent collisions with excitations in the thermal medium. Their competition determines the renormalization group flow and the effective dynamics of the model. Here we quantify the dynamic properties of the model in terms of the scale-dependent dynamic critical exponent z in the limit of large temperatures and in 2≤d≤4 spatial dimensions. We contrast our results to the behavior expected at vanishing temperature and address the question of the appropriate dynamic universality class for the given microscopic theory.

Efficacy of topical tacrolimus for oral lichen planus: real-life experience in a retrospective cohort of patients with a review of the literature

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Management of oral lichen planus (OLP) is challenging and therapeutic options are limited. The use of topical tacrolimus has shown promising results. We reviewed our daily life experience with topical tacrolimus in OLP patients. METHODS This retrospective unicentre study included all 21 patients with OLP, which were evaluated over a 53-month period and treated with topical tacrolimus. Patients were initially given a topical preparation of 0.1% tacrolimus twice daily. The response to treatment was assessed using a 4-point scale at month 2 and 6: complete response of affected area (CR), major remission (>50%, MR), partial remission (25-50%, PR) and either no response (<25%) or worsening. The pain score was also assessed using a 3-point scale. RESULTS Four of 21 patients (19%) showed a CR at month 2, whereas at month 6, 7 (33%) had a CR. For patients who reported MR (n = 2) and PR (n = 8) at month 2, the therapy was continued. Of those, at 6 months, three patients showed a CR, while four maintained a PR. The pain score improved during treatment. After 2 months of therapy, eight of 10 patients with an initial high pain score achieved a significant improvement. In patients starting with moderate pain an improvement was observed in one of seven patients. Overall, for three patients there was a complete loss of pain, while in nine there was a reduction. Except for transitory burning sensation and altered taste sensation, no relevant side-effects were reported. CONCLUSION This retrospective analysis confirms that topical tacrolimus is a valuable therapeutic option in severe or treatment-resistant OLP. Our findings in daily practice suggested nevertheless that the efficacy of topical tacrolimus is overestimated with regard to both complete response and pain reduction.

Computational fluid dynamics modelling in cardiovascular medicine.

This paper reviews the methods, benefits and challenges associated with the adoption and translation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling within cardiovascular medicine. CFD, a specialist area of mathematics and a branch of fluid mechanics, is used routinely in a diverse range of safety-critical engineering systems, which increasingly is being applied to the cardiovascular system. By facilitating rapid, economical, low-risk prototyping, CFD modelling has already revolutionised research and development of devices such as stents, valve prostheses, and ventricular assist devices. Combined with cardiovascular imaging, CFD simulation enables detailed characterisation of complex physiological pressure and flow fields and the computation of metrics which cannot be directly measured, for example, wall shear stress. CFD models are now being translated into clinical tools for physicians to use across the spectrum of coronary, valvular, congenital, myocardial and peripheral vascular diseases. CFD modelling is apposite for minimally-invasive patient assessment. Patient-specific (incorporating data unique to the individual) and multi-scale (combining models of different length- and time-scales) modelling enables individualised risk prediction and virtual treatment planning. This represents a significant departure from traditional dependence upon registry-based, population-averaged data. Model integration is progressively moving towards 'digital patient' or 'virtual physiological human' representations. When combined with population-scale numerical models, these models have the potential to reduce the cost, time and risk associated with clinical trials. The adoption of CFD modelling signals a new era in cardiovascular medicine. While potentially highly beneficial, a number of academic and commercial groups are addressing the associated methodological, regulatory, education- and service-related challenges.

Modelling the impact of deferring HCV treatment on liver-related complications in HIV coinfected men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Hepatitis C (HCV) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in people who live with HIV. In many countries, access to direct acting antiviral agents to treat HCV is restricted to individuals with advanced liver disease (METAVIR stage F3 or F4). Our goal was to estimate the long term impact of deferring HCV treatment for men who have sex with men (MSM) who are coinfected with HIV and often have multiple risk factors for liver disease progression. METHODS We developed an individual-based model of liver disease progression in HIV/HCV coinfected men who have sex with men. We estimated liver-related morbidity and mortality as well as the median time spent with replicating HCV infection when individuals were treated in liver fibrosis stages F0, F1, F2, F3 or F4 on the METAVIR scale. RESULTS The percentage of individuals who died of liver-related complications was 2% if treatment was initiated in F0 or F1. It increased to 3% if treatment was deferred until F2, 7% if it was deferred until F3 and 22% if deferred until F4. The median time individuals spent with replicating HCV increased from 5 years if treatment was initiated in F2 to almost 15 years if it was deferred until F4. CONCLUSIONS Deferring HCV therapy until advanced liver fibrosis is established could increase liver-related morbidity and mortality in HIV/HCV coinfected individuals, and substantially prolong the time individuals spend with replicating HCV infection.