Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Benefit of pulmonary vein isolation guided by loss of pace capture on the ablation line: results from a prospective 2-center randomized trial.

OBJECTIVES This study was conducted to determine if an additional procedural endpoint of unexcitability (UE) to pacing along the ablation line reduces recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial tachycardia (AT) after radiofrequency catheter ablation. BACKGROUND AF/AT recurrence is common after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI). METHODS We included 102 patients from 2 centers (age 63 ± 10 years; 33 women; left atrium 38 ± 7 mm; left ventricular ejection fraction 61 ± 6%) with symptomatic paroxysmal AF. A 3-dimensional mapping system and circumferential mapping catheter were used in all patients for PVI. In group 1 (n = 50), the procedural endpoint was bidirectional block across the ablation line. In group 2 (n = 52), additional UE to bipolar pacing at an output of 10 mA and 2-ms pulse width was required. The primary endpoint was freedom from any AF/AT (>30 s) after discontinuation of antiarrhythmic drugs. RESULTS Procedural endpoints were successfully achieved in all patients. Procedure duration was significantly longer in group 2 (185 ± 58 min vs. 139 ± 57 min; p < 0.001); however, fluoroscopy times were not different (23 ± 9 min vs. 23 ± 9 min; p = 0.49). After a follow-up of 12 months in all patients, 26 patients (52%) in group 1 versus 43 (82.7%) in group 2 were free from any AF/AT (p = 0.001) after a single procedure. No major complications occurred. CONCLUSIONS The use of pacing to ensure UE along the PVI line markedly improved near-term single-procedure success, compared with demonstration of bidirectional block alone. This additional endpoint significantly improved patient outcomes after PVI. (Unexcitability Along the Ablation as an Endpoint for Atrial Fibrillation Ablation; NCT01724437).

Optimizing the size of the area surveyed for monitoring a Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) population in the Swiss Alps by means of photographic capture-recapture

We studied the influence of surveyed area size on density estimates by means of camera-trapping in a low-density felid population (1-2 individuals/100 km(2) ). We applied non-spatial capture-recapture (CR) and spatial CR (SCR) models for Eurasian lynx during winter 2005/2006 in the northwestern Swiss Alps by sampling an area divided into 5 nested plots ranging from 65 to 760 km(2) . CR model density estimates (95% CI) for models M0 and Mh decreased from 2.61 (1.55-3.68) and 3.6 (1.62-5.57) independent lynx/100 km(2) , respectively, in the smallest to 1.20 (1.04-1.35) and 1.26 (0.89-1.63) independent lynx/100 km(2) , respectively, in the largest area surveyed. SCR model density estimates also decreased with increasing sampling area but not significantly. High individual range overlaps in relatively small areas (the edge effect) is the most plausible reason for this positive bias in the CR models. Our results confirm that SCR models are much more robust to changes in trap array size than CR models, thus avoiding overestimation of density in smaller areas. However, when a study is concerned with monitoring population changes, large spatial efforts (area surveyed ≥760 km(2) ) are required to obtain reliable and precise density estimates with these population densities and recapture rates.

The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores

Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom-up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top-down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non-harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.

Neutron capture on Pt isotopes in iron meteorites and the Hf–W chronology of core formation in planetesimals

The short-lived 182Hf–182W isotope system can provide powerful constraints on the timescales of planetary core formation, but its application to iron meteorites is hampered by neutron capture reactions on W isotopes resulting from exposure to galactic cosmic rays. Here we show that Pt isotopes in magmatic iron meteorites are also affected by capture of (epi)thermal neutrons and that the Pt isotope variations are correlated with variations in 182W/184W. This makes Pt isotopes a sensitive neutron dosimeter for correcting cosmic ray-induced W isotope shifts. The pre-exposure 182W/184W derived from the Pt–W isotope correlations of the IID, IVA and IVB iron meteorites are higher than most previous estimates and are more radiogenic than the initial 182W/184W of Ca–Al-rich inclusions (CAI). The Hf–W model ages for core formation range from +1.6±1.0 million years (Ma; for the IVA irons) to +2.7±1.3 Ma after CAI formation (for the IID irons), indicating that there was a time gap of at least ∼1 Ma between CAI formation and metal segregation in the parent bodies of some iron meteorites. From the Hf–W ages a time limit of <1.5–2 Ma after CAI formation can be inferred for the accretion of the IID, IVA and IVB iron meteorite parent bodies, consistent with earlier conclusions that the accretion of differentiated planetesimals predated that of most chondrite parent bodies.

Thermal neutron capture effects in radioactive and stable nuclide systems

Neutron capture effects in meteorites and lunar surface samples have been successfully used in the past to study exposure histories and shielding conditions. In recent years, however, it turned out that neutron capture effects produce a nuisance for some of the short-lived radionuclide systems. The most prominent example is the 182Hf-182W system in iron meteorites, for which neutron capture effects lower the 182W/184W ratio, thereby producing too old apparent ages. Here, we present a thorough study of neutron capture effects in iron meteorites, ordinary chondrites, and carbonaceous chondrites, whereas the focus is on iron meteorites. We study in detail the effects responsible for neutron production, neutron transport, and neutron slowing down and find that neutron capture in all studied meteorite types is not, as usually expected, exclusively via thermal neutrons. In contrast, most of the neutron capture in iron meteorites is in the epithermal energy range and there is a significant contribution from epithermal neutron capture even in stony meteorites. Using sophisticated particle spectra and evaluated cross section data files for neutron capture reactions we calculate the neutron capture effects for Sm, Gd, Cd, Pd, Pt, and Os isotopes, which all can serve as neutron-dose proxies, either in stony or in iron meteorites. In addition, we model neutron capture effects in W and Ag isotopes. For W isotopes, the GCR-induced shifts perfectly correlate with Os and Pt isotope shifts, which therefore can be used as neutron-dose proxies and permit a reliable correction. We also found that GCR-induced effects for the 107Pd-107Ag system can be significant and need to be corrected, a result that is in contrast to earlier studies.

Capture of activity-induced ultrastructural changes at synapses by high-pressure freezing of brain tissue.

Electron microscopy (EM) allows for the simultaneous visualization of all tissue components at high resolution. However, the extent to which conventional aldehyde fixation and ethanol dehydration of the tissue alter the fine structure of cells and organelles, thereby preventing detection of subtle structural changes induced by an experiment, has remained an issue. Attempts have been made to rapidly freeze tissue to preserve native ultrastructure. Shock-freezing of living tissue under high pressure (high-pressure freezing, HPF) followed by cryosubstitution of the tissue water avoids aldehyde fixation and dehydration in ethanol; the tissue water is immobilized in ∼50 ms, and a close-to-native fine structure of cells, organelles and molecules is preserved. Here we describe a protocol for HPF that is useful to monitor ultrastructural changes associated with functional changes at synapses in the brain but can be applied to many other tissues as well. The procedure requires a high-pressure freezer and takes a minimum of 7 d but can be paused at several points.