What percentage of people in the general population satisfies the current clinical at-risk criteria of psychosis?

The clinical validity of at-risk criteria of psychosis had been questioned based on epidemiological studies that have reported much higher prevalence and annual incidence rates of psychotic-like experiences (PLEs as assessed by either self rating questionnaires or layperson interviews) in the general population than of the clinical phenotype of psychotic disorders (van Os et al., 2009). Thus, it is unclear whether “current at-risk criteria reflect behaviors so common among adolescents and young adults that a valid distinction between ill and non-ill persons is difficult” (Carpenter, 2009). We therefore assessed the 3-month prevalence of at-risk criteria by means of telephone interviews in a randomly drawn general population sample from the at-risk age segment (age 16–35 years) in the Canton Bern, Switzerland. Eighty-five of 102 subjects had valid phone numbers, 21 of these subjects refused (although 6 of them signaled willingness to participate at a later time), 4 could not be contacted. Sixty subjects (71% of the enrollment fraction) participated. Two participants met exclusion criteria (one for being psychotic, one for lack of language skills). Twenty-two at-risk symptoms were assessed for their prevalence and severity within the 3 months prior to the interview by trained clinical raters using (i) the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS; Miller et al., 2002) for the evaluation of 5 attenuated psychotic and 3 brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (APS, BLIPS) as well as state-trait criteria of the ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria and (ii) the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Adult version (SPI-A; Schultze-Lutter et al., 2007) for the evaluation of the 14 basic symptoms included in COPER and COGDIS (Schultze-Lutter et al., 2008). Further, psychiatric axis I diagnoses were assessed by means of the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview, M.I.N.I. (Sheehan et al., 1998), and psychosocial functioning by the Scale of Occupational and Functional Assessment (SOFAS; APA, 1994). All interviewees felt ‘rather’ or ‘very’ comfortable with the interview. Of the 58 included subjects, only 1 (2%) fulfilled APS criteria by reporting the attenuated, non-delusional idea of his mind being literally read by others at a frequency of 2–3 times a week that had newly occurred 6 weeks ago. BLIPS, COPER, COGDIS or state-trait UHR criteria were not reported. Yet, twelve subjects (21%) described sub-threshold at-risk symptoms: 7 (12%) reported APS relevant symptoms but did not meet time/frequency criteria of APS, and 9 (16%) reported COPER and/or COGDIS relevant basic symptoms but at an insufficient frequency or as a trait lacking increase in severity; 4 of these 12 subjects reported both sub-threshold APS and sub-threshold basic symptoms. Table 1 displays type and frequency of the sub-threshold at-risk symptoms.

Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Protocol for a population-based study of rheumatic heart disease prevalence and cardiovascular outcomes among schoolchildren in Nepal

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in developing countries. The reported prevalence rates of RHD are highly variable and mainly attributable to differences in the sensitivity of either clinical screening to detect advanced heart disease or echocardiographic evaluation where disease is diagnosed earlier across a continuous spectrum. The clinical significance of diagnosis of subclinical RHD by echocardiographic screening and early implementation of secondary prevention has not been clearly established. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The authors designed a cross-sectional survey to determine the prevalence of RHD in children from private and public schools between the age of 5 and 15 years in urban and rural areas of Eastern Nepal using both cardiac auscultation and echocardiographic evaluation. Children with RHD will be treated with secondary prevention and enrolled in a prospective cohort study. The authors will compare the prevalence rates by cardiac auscultation and echocardiography, determine risk factors associated with diagnosis and progression of RHD, investigate social and economic barriers for receiving adequate cardiac care and assess clinical outcomes with regular medical surveillance as a function of stage of disease at the time of diagnosis. Prospective clinical studies investigating the impact of secondary prevention for subclinical RHD on long-term clinical outcome will be of central relevance for future health resource utilisation in developing countries. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was considered ethically uncritical and was given an exempt status by the ethics committee at University of Bern, Switzerland. The study has been submitted to the National Nepal Health Research Council and was registered with http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01550068). The study findings will be reported in peer-reviewed publications. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01550068.

[Pathways-to-Care for First-Episode psychotic patients--an overview of international studies]

A longer duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) as well as of untreated illness (DUI) was found to be associated with a negative course of psychosis. Thus, increasing efforts are made to reduce the DUP and provide adequate treatment as early as possible. But, in order to overcome obstacles to early help-seeking, these have to be identified first. Thus, an overview on initial help-seeking behaviour and predictors of DUP is given. Across 25 identified studies, the DUP, at about one year on average, is still unfavourably long and includes on average of three help-seeking contacts prior to the initiation of adequate treatment. Since negative factors in pathways-to-care involve features on all relevant levels (patient, social environment and health-care system), an optimisation of pathways-to-care will require the integration of services and continuous awareness programmes targeting the general population and mental health-care professionals.

Association between conventional risk factors and different ultrasound-based markers of atherosclerosis at carotid and femoral levels in a middle-aged population

Ultrasound detection of sub-clinical atherosclerosis (ATS) may help identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Most studies evaluated intima-media thickness (IMT) at carotid level. We compared the relationships between main cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and five indicators of ATS (IMT, mean and maximal plaque thickness, mean and maximal plaque area) at both carotid and femoral levels. Ultrasound was performed on 496 participants aged 45-64 years randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles. 73.4 % participants had ≥ 1 plaque (IMT thickening ≥ 1.2 mm) at carotid level and 67.5 % at femoral level. Variance (adjusted R2) contributed by age, sex and CVRF (smoking, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes) in predicting any of the ATS markers was larger at femoral than carotid level. At both carotid and femoral levels, the association between CVRF and ATS was stronger based on plaque-based markers than IMT. Our findings show that the associations between CVRF and ATS markers were stronger at femoral than carotid level, and with plaque-based markers rather than IMT. Pending comparison of these markers using harder cardiovascular endpoints, our findings suggest that markers based on plaque morphology assessed at femoral artery level might be useful cardiovascular risk predictors.

Association of rs1182 polymorphism of the DYT1 gene with primary dystonia in Chinese population

The deletion mutation of glutamate codon (GAG) in the TOR1A gene is a major cause of primary generalized dystonia. Recent genetic studies suggest that the rs1182 polymorphism in the same gene may represent a risk factor for primary dystonia. However, this finding has been inconsistent. Furthermore, no data on such an association in a Chinese population have been published.

Concomitant Vascular Reconstruction During Pancreatectomy for Malignant Disease: A Propensity Score-Adjusted, Population-Based Trend Analysis Involving 10 206 Patients

OBJECTIVE To assess trends in the frequency of concomitant vascular reconstructions (VRs) from 2000 through 2009 among patients who underwent pancreatectomy, as well as to compare the short-term outcomes between patients who underwent pancreatic resection with and without VR. DESIGN Single-center series have been conducted to evaluate the short-term and long-term outcomes of VR during pancreatic resection. However, its effectiveness from a population-based perspective is still unknown. Unadjusted, multivariable, and propensity score-adjusted generalized linear models were performed. SETTING Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2000 through 2009. PATIENTS A total of 10 206 patients were involved. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence of VR during pancreatic resection, perioperative in-hospital complications, and length of hospital stay. RESULTS Overall, 10 206 patients were included in this analysis. Of these, 412 patients (4.0%) underwent VR, with the rate increasing from 0.7% in 2000 to 6.0% in 2009 (P < .001). Patients who underwent pancreatic resection with VR were at a higher risk for intraoperative (propensity score-adjusted odds ratio, 1.94; P = .001) and postoperative (propensity score-adjusted odds ratio, 1.36; P = .008) complications, while the mortality and median length of hospital stay were similar to those of patients without VR. Among the 25% of hospitals with the highest surgical volume, patients who underwent pancreatic surgery with VR had significantly higher rates of postoperative complications and mortality than patients without VR. CONCLUSIONS The frequency of VR during pancreatic surgery is increasing in the United States. In contrast with most single-center analyses, this population-based study demonstrated that patients who underwent VR during pancreatic surgery had higher rates of adverse postoperative outcomes than their counterparts who underwent pancreatic resection only. Prospective studies incorporating long-term outcomes are warranted to further define which patients benefit from VR.

Assessment of population structure by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in goat breeds

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) may be used in biodiversity studies and commercial tasks like traceability, paternity testing and selection for suitable genotypes. Twenty-seven SNPs were characterized and genotyped on 250 individuals belonging to eight Italian goat breeds. Multilocus genotype data were used to infer population structure and assign individuals to populations. To estimate the number of groups (K) to test in population structure analysis we used likelihood values and variance of the bootstrap samples, deriving optimal K from a drop in the likelihood and a rise in the variance plots against K.

Canine neurological diseases in a referral hospital population between 1989 and 2000 in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES: To merge clinical information from partly overlapping medical record databases of the Small Animal Teaching Hospital of the Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Berne. To describe the frequencies and localisations of neurological diseases in dogs, as well as their age, gender, breed and geographical distributions. METHODS: In this retrospective study, a new database, with specific variables and a diagnosis key list 'VITAMIN D', was created and defined. A total of 4497 dogs (average of 375 per year) with a well-documented neurological disease were included in the study. A key list for the diagnoses was developed and applied to either the presumptive or the clinical and neurohistopathological diagnosis, with a serial number, a code for localisation and a code for differential diagnoses. RESULTS: Approximately 1159 dogs (26 per cent) had a neurohistopathological diagnosis confirmed, 1431 (32 per cent) had a clinical diagnosis confirmed and 1491 (33 per cent) had a presumptive diagnosis. The most frequent breeds were mixed-breed dogs (577 of 4497, 13 per cent), followed by German shepherd dogs (466 of 4497, 10 per cent). The most common localisations were the forebrain (908 of 4497, 20 per cent) and the spinal cord at the thoracolumbar area (840 of 4497, 19 per cent). Most dogs were diagnosed with degenerative diseases (38 per cent), followed by inflammatory/infectious diseases (14 per cent). The highest number of submissions originated from geographic regions around the referral hospital and from regions with higher human population densities. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: By defining closed-list fields and allocating all data to the corresponding fields, a standardised database that can be used for further studies was generated. The analysis of this study gives examples of the possible uses of a standardised database.

Accuracy of B-type natriuretic peptide tests to exclude congestive heart failure: systematic review of test accuracy studies

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major public health problem. The use of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) tests shows promising diagnostic accuracy. Herein, we summarize the evidence on the accuracy of BNP tests in the diagnosis of CHF and compare the performance of rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and standard radioimmunosorbent assay (RIA) tests. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and the reference lists of included studies, and we contacted experts. Data were extracted on the study population, the type of test used, and methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and summary ROC curves were produced and negative likelihood ratios pooled. Random-effect meta-analysis and metaregression were used to combine data and explore sources of between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: Nineteen studies describing 22 patient populations (9 ELISA and 13 RIA) and 9093 patients were included. The diagnosis of CHF was verified by echocardiography, radionuclide scan, or echocardiography combined with clinical criteria. The pooled negative likelihood ratio overall from random-effect meta-analysis was 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.23). It was lower for the ELISA test (0.12; 95% CI, 0.09-0.16) than for the RIA test (0.23; 95% CI, 0.16-0.32). For a pretest probability of 20%, which is typical for patients with suspected CHF in primary care, a negative result of the ELISA test would produce a posttest probability of 2.9%; a negative RIA test, a posttest probability of 5.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The use of BNP tests to rule out CHF in primary care settings could reduce demand for echocardiography. The advantages of rapid ELISA tests need to be balanced against their higher cost.

Does population screening for Chlamydia trachomatis raise anxiety among those tested? Findings from a population based chlamydia screening study

BACKGROUND: The advent of urine testing for Chlamydia trachomatis has raised the possibility of large-scale screening for this sexually transmitted infection, which is now the most common in the United Kingdom. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of an invitation to be screened for chlamydia and of receiving a negative result on levels of anxiety, depression and self-esteem. METHODS: 19,773 men and women aged 16 to 39 years, selected at random from 27 general practices in two large city areas (Bristol and Birmingham) were invited by post to send home-collected urine samples or vulvo-vaginal swabs for chlamydia testing. Questionnaires enquiring about anxiety, depression and self-esteem were sent to random samples of those offered screening: one month before the dispatch of invitations; when participants returned samples; and after receiving a negative result. RESULTS: Home screening was associated with an overall reduction in anxiety scores. An invitation to participate did not increase anxiety levels. Anxiety scores in men were lower after receiving the invitation than at baseline. Amongst women anxiety was reduced after receipt of negative test results. Neither depression nor self-esteem scores were affected by screening. CONCLUSION: Postal screening for chlamydia does not appear to have a negative impact on overall psychological well-being and can lead to a decrease in anxiety levels among respondents. There is, however, a clear difference between men and women in when this reduction occurs.

Vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty: a systematic review of 69 clinical studies

STUDY DESIGN: Systematic literature review. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the safety and efficacy of vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty using the data presented in published clinical studies, with respect to patient pain relief, restoration of mobility and vertebral body height, complication rate, and incidence of new adjacent vertebral fractures. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty have been gaining popularity for treating vertebral fractures. Current reviews provide an overview of the procedures but are not comprehensive and tend to rely heavily on personal experience. This article aimed to compile all available data and evaluate the clinical outcome of the 2 procedures. METHODS: This is a systematic review of all the available data presented in peer-reviewed published clinical trials. The methodological quality of included studies was evaluated, and data were collected targeting specific standard measurements. Where possible, a quantitative aggregation of the data was performed. RESULTS: A large proportion of subjects had some pain relief, including 87% with vertebroplasty and 92% with kyphoplasty. Vertebral height restoration was possible using kyphoplasty (average 6.6 degrees ) and for a subset of patients using vertebroplasty (average 6.6 degrees ). Cement leaks occurred for 41% and 9% of treated vertebrae for vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty, respectively. New fractures of adjacent vertebrae occurred for both procedures at rates that are higher than the general osteoporotic population but approximately equivalent to the general osteoporotic population that had a previous vertebral fracture. CONCLUSIONS: The problem with stating definitely that vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty are safe and effective procedures is the lack of comparative, blinded, randomized clinical trials. Standardized evaluative methods should be adopted.

Epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic evaluation of population screening for genital chlamydial infection

OBJECTIVES: To investigate epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic aspects of chlamydia screening in non-genitourinary medicine settings. METHODS: Linked studies around a cross-sectional population-based survey of adult men and women invited to collect urine and (for women) vulvovaginal swab specimens at home and mail these to a laboratory for testing for Chlamydia trachomatis. Specimens were used in laboratory evaluations of an amplified enzyme immunoassay (PCE EIA) and two nucleic acid amplification tests [Cobas polymerase chain reaction (PCR), Becton Dickinson strand displacement amplification (SDA)]. Chlamydia-positive cases and two negative controls completed a risk factor questionnaire. Chlamydia-positive cases were invited into a randomised controlled trial of partner notification strategies. Samples of individuals testing negative completed psychological questionnaires before and after screening. In-depth interviews were conducted at all stages of screening. Chlamydia transmission and cost-effectiveness of screening were investigated in a transmission dynamic model. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: General population in the Bristol and Birmingham areas of England. In total, 19,773 women and men aged 16-39 years were randomly selected from 27 general practice lists. RESULTS: Screening invitations reached 73% (14,382/19,773). Uptake (4731 participants), weighted for sampling, was 39.5% (95% CI 37.7, 40.8%) in women and 29.5% (95% CI 28.0, 31.0%) in men aged 16-39 years. Chlamydia prevalence (219 positive results) in 16-24 year olds was 6.2% (95% CI 4.9, 7.8%) in women and 5.3% (95% CI 4.4, 6.3%) in men. The case-control study did not identify any additional factors that would help target screening. Screening did not adversely affect anxiety, depression or self-esteem. Participants welcomed the convenience and privacy of home-sampling. The relative sensitivity of PCR on male urine specimens was 100% (95% CI 89.1, 100%). The combined relative sensitivities of PCR and SDA using female urine and vulvovaginal swabs were 91.8% (86.1, 95.7, 134/146) and 97.3% (93.1, 99.2%, 142/146). A total of 140 people (74% of eligible) participated in the randomised trial. Compared with referral to a genitourinary medicine clinic, partner notification by practice nurses resulted in 12.4% (95% CI -3.7, 28.6%) more patients with at least one partner treated and 22.0% (95% CI 6.1, 37.8%) more patients with all partners treated. The health service and patients costs (2005 prices) of home-based postal chlamydia screening were 21.47 pounds (95% CI 19.91 pounds, 25.99) per screening invitation and 28.56 pounds (95% CI 22.10 pounds, 30.43) per accepted offer. Preliminary modelling found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (2003 prices) comparing screening men and women annually to no screening in the base case of 27,000 pounds/major outcome averted at 8 years. If estimated screening uptake and pelvic inflammatory disease incidence were increased, the cost-effectiveness ratio fell to 3700 pounds/major outcome averted. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive screening for chlamydia in women and men using home-collected specimens was feasible and acceptable. Chlamydia prevalence rates in men and women in the general population are similar. Nucleic acid amplification tests can be used on first-catch urine specimens and vulvovaginal swabs. The administrative costs of proactive screening were similar to those for opportunistic screening. Using empirical estimates of screening uptake and incidence of complications, screening was not cost-effective.

Human alveolar echinococcosis after fox population increase, Switzerland

We analyzed databases spanning 50 years, which included retrospective alveolar echinococcosis (AE) case finding studies and databases of the 3 major centers for treatment of AE in Switzerland. A total of 494 cases were recorded. Annual incidence of AE per 100,000 population increased from 0.12-0.15 during 1956-1992 and a mean of 0.10 during 1993-2000 to a mean of 0.26 during 2001-2005. Because the clinical stage of the disease did not change between observation periods, this increase cannot be explained by improved diagnosis. Swiss hunting statistics suggested that the fox population increased 4-fold from 1980 through 1995 and has persisted at these higher levels. Because the period between infection and development of clinical disease is long, the increase in the fox population and high Echinococcus multilocularis prevalence rates in foxes in rural and urban areas may have resulted in an emerging epidemic of AE 10-15 years later.

Population pharmacokinetics of sevoflurane in conjunction with the AnaConDa: toward target-controlled infusion of volatiles into the breathing system

BACKGROUND: The Anesthetic Conserving Device (AnaConDa) uncouples delivery of a volatile anesthetic (VA) from fresh gas flow (FGF) using a continuous infusion of liquid volatile into a modified heat-moisture exchanger capable of adsorbing VA during expiration and releasing adsorbed VA during inspiration. It combines the simplicity and responsiveness of high FGF with low agent expenditures. We performed in vitro characterization of the device before developing a population pharmacokinetic model for sevoflurane administration with the AnaConDa, and retrospectively testing its performance (internal validation). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighteen females and 20 males, aged 31-87, BMI 20-38, were included. The end-tidal concentrations were varied and recorded together with the VA infusion rates into the device, ventilation and demographic data. The concentration-time course of sevoflurane was described using linear differential equations, and the most suitable structural model and typical parameter values were identified. The individual pharmacokinetic parameters were obtained and tested for covariate relationships. Prediction errors were calculated. RESULTS: In vitro studies assessed the contribution of the device to the pharmacokinetic model. In vivo, the sevoflurane concentration-time courses on the patient side of the AnaConDa were adequately described with a two-compartment model. The population median absolute prediction error was 27% (interquartile range 13-45%). CONCLUSION: The predictive performance of the two-compartment model was similar to that of models accepted for TCI administration of intravenous anesthetics, supporting open-loop administration of sevoflurane with the AnaConDa. Further studies will focus on prospective testing and external validation of the model implemented in a target-controlled infusion device.