Mortality of patients lost to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programmes in resource-limited settings: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The retention of patients in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes is an important issue in resource-limited settings. Loss to follow up can be substantial, but it is unclear what the outcomes are in patients who are lost to programmes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Indian Medlars Centre (IndMed) and African Index Medicus (AIM) databases and the abstracts of three conferences for studies that traced patients lost to follow up to ascertain their vital status. Main outcomes were the proportion of patients traced, the proportion found to be alive and the proportion that had died. Where available, we also examined the reasons why some patients could not be traced, why patients found to be alive did not return to the clinic, and the causes of death. We combined mortality data from several studies using random-effects meta-analysis. Seventeen studies were eligible. All were from sub-Saharan Africa, except one study from India, and none were conducted in children. A total of 6420 patients (range 44 to 1343 patients) were included. Patients were traced using telephone calls, home visits and through social networks. Overall the vital status of 4021 patients could be ascertained (63%, range across studies: 45% to 86%); 1602 patients had died. The combined mortality was 40% (95% confidence interval 33%-48%), with substantial heterogeneity between studies (P<0.0001). Mortality in African programmes ranged from 12% to 87% of patients lost to follow-up. Mortality was inversely associated with the rate of loss to follow up in the programme: it declined from around 60% to 20% as the percentage of patients lost to the programme increased from 5% to 50%. Among patients not found, telephone numbers and addresses were frequently incorrect or missing. Common reasons for not returning to the clinic were transfer to another programme, financial problems and improving or deteriorating health. Causes of death were available for 47 deaths: 29 (62%) died of an AIDS defining illness. CONCLUSIONS: In ART programmes in resource-limited settings a substantial minority of adults lost to follow up cannot be traced, and among those traced 20% to 60% had died. Our findings have implications both for patient care and the monitoring and evaluation of programmes.

Early serum procalcitonin, interleukin-6, and 24-hour lactate clearance: useful indicators of septic infections in severely traumatized patients

BACKGROUND: Elevated lactate and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels were shown to correlate with mortality and multiple organ dysfunction in severely traumatized patients. The purpose of this study was to test whether an association exists between 24-hour lactate clearance, IL-6 and procalcitonin (PCT) levels, and the development of infectious complications in trauma patients. METHODS: A total of 1757 consecutive trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 16 admitted over a 10-year period were retrospectively analyzed over a 21-day period. Exclusion criteria included death within 72 h of admission (24.5%), late admission > 12 h after injury (16%), and age < 16 years (0.5%). Data are stated as the median (range). RESULTS: Altogether, 1032 trauma patients (76.2% male) with an average age of 38 years, a median ISS of 29 (16-75), and an Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score of 14 (0-40) were evaluated. The in-hospital mortality (>3 days) was 10%. Patients with insufficient 24-hour lactate clearance had a high rate of overall mortality and infections. Elevated early serum procalcitonin on days 1 to 5 after trauma was strongly associated with the subsequent development of sepsis (p < 0.01) but not with nonseptic infections. The kinetics of IL-6 were similar to those of PCT but did differentiate between infected and noninfected patients after day 5. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that elevated early procalcitonin and IL-6 levels and inadequate 24-hour lactate clearance help identify trauma patients who develop septic and nonseptic infectious complications. Definition of specific cutoff values and early monitoring of these parameters may help direct early surgical and antibiotic therapy and reduce infectious mortality.

Occupational exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and DNA damage by industry: a nationwide study in Germany

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and DNA damage were analyzed in coke oven (n = 37), refractory (n = 96), graphite electrode (n = 26), and converter workers (n = 12), whereas construction workers (n = 48) served as referents. PAH exposure was assessed by personal air sampling during shift and biological monitoring in urine post shift (1-hydroxypyrene, 1-OHP and 1-, 2 + 9-, 3-, 4-hydroxyphenanthrenes, SigmaOHPHE). DNA damage was measured by 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodGuo) and DNA strand breaks in blood post shift. Median 1-OHP and SigmaOHPHE were highest in converter workers (13.5 and 37.2 microg/g crea). The industrial setting contributed to the metabolite concentrations rather than the air-borne concentration alone. Other routes of uptake, probably dermal, influenced associations between air-borne concentrations and levels of PAH metabolites in urine making biomonitoring results preferred parameters to assess exposure to PAH. DNA damage in terms of 8-oxo-dGuo and DNA strand breaks was higher in exposed workers compared to referents ranking highest for graphite-electrode production. The type of industry contributed to genotoxic DNA damage and DNA damage was not unequivocally associated to PAH on the individual level most likely due to potential contributions of co-exposures.

[Urinary specific gravity--comparative measurements using reagent strips and refractometer in 340 morning urine samples]

The specific gravity of urine (SG) indicates the number and weight of solute particles in urine; its measurement is helpful in interpreting proteinuria detected by dipstick tests and in monitoring adequate hydration in patients with nephrolithiasis. Four methods for measuring SG or osmolality of urine are currently available (depression of the freezing-point, urometry, refractometry, cation exchange on a reagent strip). Using a recently developed reagent strip, we have measured SG in morning urines of 340 non-selected outpatients and compared the results with SG measurements by refractometry of the same urines. In 86.2% of all urines, a good positive correlation between SG measured by reagent strip and refractometry was noted (r = 0.913, p = 0.0001). In 13.8% of the urines, however, the SG measured by reagent strip deviated by more than +/- 5 from the value obtained by refractometry; in 90% of these urines, glucosuria (reagent strip values too low or too high), proteinuria (values too high), or bacteriuria/leukocyturia (values too low or too high) could be found. In alkaline urine (pH > 7.0), SG values obtained by reagent strip have to be corrected by +5.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND Monitoring of HIV viral load in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined the cost-effectiveness of qualitative point-of-care viral load tests (POC-VL) in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN Mathematical model based on longitudinal data from the Gugulethu and Khayelitsha township ART programmes in Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS Cohorts of patients on ART monitored by POC-VL, CD4 cell count or clinically were simulated. Scenario A considered the more accurate detection of treatment failure with POC-VL only, and scenario B also considered the effect on HIV transmission. Scenario C further assumed that the risk of virologic failure is halved with POC-VL due to improved adherence. We estimated the change in costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, ICERs) of POC-VL compared with CD4 and clinical monitoring. RESULTS POC-VL tests with detection limits less than 1000 copies/ml increased costs due to unnecessary switches to second-line ART, without improving survival. Assuming POC-VL unit costs between US$5 and US$20 and detection limits between 1000 and 10,000 copies/ml, the ICER of POC-VL was US$4010-US$9230 compared with clinical and US$5960-US$25540 compared with CD4 cell count monitoring. In Scenario B, the corresponding ICERs were US$2450-US$5830 and US$2230-US$10380. In Scenario C, the ICER ranged between US$960 and US$2500 compared with clinical monitoring and between cost-saving and US$2460 compared with CD4 monitoring. CONCLUSION The cost-effectiveness of POC-VL for monitoring ART is improved by a higher detection limit, by taking the reduction in new HIV infections into account and assuming that failure of first-line ART is reduced due to targeted adherence counselling.

A survey of paediatric HIV programmatic and clinical management practices in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa--the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA)

INTRODUCTION There are limited data on paediatric HIV care and treatment programmes in low-resource settings. METHODS A standardized survey was completed by International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS paediatric cohort sites in the regions of Asia-Pacific (AP), Central Africa (CA), East Africa (EA), Southern Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) to understand operational resource availability and paediatric management practices. Data were collected through January 2010 using a secure, web-based software program (REDCap). RESULTS A total of 64,552 children were under care at 63 clinics (AP, N=10; CA, N=4; EA, N=29; SA, N=10; WA, N=10). Most were in urban settings (N=41, 65%) and received funding from governments (N=51, 81%), PEPFAR (N=34, 54%), and/or the Global Fund (N=15, 24%). The majority were combined adult-paediatric clinics (N=36, 57%). Prevention of mother-to-child transmission was integrated at 35 (56%) sites; 89% (N=56) had access to DNA PCR for infant diagnosis. African (N=40/53) but not Asian sites recommended exclusive breastfeeding up until 4-6 months. Regular laboratory monitoring included CD4 (N=60, 95%), and viral load (N=24, 38%). Although 42 (67%) sites had the ability to conduct acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smears, 23 (37%) sites could conduct AFB cultures and 18 (29%) sites could conduct tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing. Loss to follow-up was defined as >3 months of lost contact for 25 (40%) sites, >6 months for 27 sites (43%) and >12 months for 6 sites (10%). Telephone calls (N=52, 83%) and outreach worker home visits to trace children lost to follow-up (N=45, 71%) were common. CONCLUSIONS In general, there was a high level of patient and laboratory monitoring within this multiregional paediatric cohort consortium that will facilitate detailed observational research studies. Practices will continue to be monitored as the WHO/UNAIDS Treatment 2.0 framework is implemented.

Recommendations for the use of ultrasound in rheumatoid arthritis: literature review and SONAR score experience

Ultrasound (US) has become a useful tool in the detection of early disease, differential diagnosis, guidance of treatment decisions and treatment monitoring of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In 2008, the Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism (SONAR) group was established to promote the use of US in inflammatory arthritis in clinical practice. A scoring system was developed and taught to a large number of Swiss rheumatologists who already contributed to the Swiss Clinical Quality Management (SCQM) database, a national patient register. This paper intends to give a Swiss consensus about best clinical practice recommendations for the use of US in RA on the basis of the current literature knowledge and experience with the Swiss SONAR score. Literature research was performed to collect data on current evidence. The results were discussed among specialists of the Swiss university centres and private practice, following a structured procedure. Musculoskelatal US was found to be very helpful in establishing the diagnosis and monitoring the evolution of RA, and to be a reliable tool if used by experienced examiners. It influences treatment decisions such as continuing, intensifying or stepping down therapy. The definite modalities of integrating US into the diagnosis and monitoring of RA treatments will be defined within a few years. There are, however, strong arguments to use US findings as of today in daily clinical care. Some practical recommendations about the use of US in RA, focusing on the diagnosis and the use of the SONAR score, are proposed.

A Link Quality and Geographical-aware Routing Protocol for Video Transmission in Mobile IoT

Wireless mobile sensor networks are enlarging the Internet of Things (IoT) portfolio with a huge number of multimedia services for smart cities. Safety and environmental monitoring multimedia applications will be part of the Smart IoT systems, which aim to reduce emergency response time, while also predicting hazardous events. In these mobile and dynamic (possible disaster) scenarios, opportunistic routing allows routing decisions in a completely distributed manner, by using a hop- by-hop route decision based on protocol-specific characteristics, and a predefined end-to-end path is not a reliable solution. This enables the transmission of video flows of a monitored area/object with Quality of Experience (QoE) support to users, headquarters or IoT platforms. However, existing approaches rely on a single metric to make the candidate selection rule, including link quality or geographic information, which causes a high packet loss rate, and reduces the video perception from the human standpoint. This article proposes a cross-layer Link quality and Geographical-aware Opportunistic routing protocol (LinGO), which is designed for video dissemination in mobile multimedia IoT environments. LinGO improves routing decisions using multiple metrics, including link quality, geographic loca- tion, and energy. The simulation results show the benefits of LinGO compared with well-known routing solutions for video transmission with QoE support in mobile scenarios.

Cellular Photo Digital Breathalyzer for Monitoring Alcohol Use: A Pilot Study

Background: Monitoring alcohol use is important in numerous situations. Direct ethanol metabolites, such as ethyl glucuronide (EtG), have been shown to be useful tools in detecting alcohol use and documenting abstinence. For very frequent or continuous control of abstinence, they lack practicability. Therefore, devices measuring ethanol itself might be of interest. This pilot study aims at elucidating the usability and accuracy of the cellular photo digital breathalyzer (CPDB) compared to self-reports in a naturalistic setting. Method: 12 social drinkers were included. Subjects used a CPDB 4 times daily, kept diaries of alcohol use and submitted urine for EtG testing over a period of 5 weeks. Results: In total, the 12 subjects reported 84 drinking episodes. 1,609 breath tests were performed and 55 urine EtG tests were collected. Of 84 drinking episodes, CPDB detected 98.8%. The compliance rate for breath testing was 96%. Of the 55 EtG tests submitted, 1 (1.8%) was positive. Conclusions: The data suggest that the CPDB device holds promise in detecting high, moderate, and low alcohol intake. It seems to have advantages compared to biomarkers and other Monitoring devices. The preference for CPDB by the participants might explain the high compliance. Further studies including comparison with biomarkers and transdermal devices are needed.

Landscape mosaics maps as a basis for spatial assessment and negotiation of ecosystem services and their trade-offs at the meso-scale: Examples from Laos, Madagascar and China

Mapping ecosystem services (ES) and their trade-offs is a key requirement for informed decision making for land use planning and management of natural resources that aim to move towards increasing the sustainability of landscapes. The negotiations of the purposes of landscapes and the services they should provide are difficult as there is an increasing number of stakeholders active at different levels with a variety of interests present on one particular landscape.Traditionally, land cover data is at the basis for mapping and spatial monitoring of ecosystem services. In light of complex landscapes it is however questionable whether land cover per se and as a spatial base unit is suitable for monitoring and management at the meso-scale. Often the characteristics of a landscape are defined by prevalence, composition and specific spatial and temporal patterns of different land cover types. The spatial delineation of shifting cultivation agriculture represents a prominent example of a land use system with its different land use intensities that requires alternative methodologies that go beyond the common remote sensing approaches of pixel-based land cover analysis due to the spatial and temporal dynamics of rotating cultivated and fallow fields.Against this background we advocate that adopting a landscape perspective to spatial planning and decision making offers new space for negotiation and collaboration, taking into account the needs of local resource users, and of the global community. For this purpose we introduce landscape mosaicsdefined as new spatial unit describing generalized land use types. Landscape mosaics have allowed us to chart different land use systems and land use intensities and permitted us to delineate changes in these land use systems based on changes of external claims on these landscapes. The underlying idea behindthe landscape mosaics is to use land cover data typically derived from remote sensing data and to analyse and classify spatial patterns of this land cover data using a moving window approach. We developed the landscape mosaics approach in tropical, forest dominated landscapesparticularly shifting cultivation areas and present examples ofour work from northern Laos, eastern Madagascarand Yunnan Province in China.

Characterization of small ruminant lentivirus A4 subtype isolates and assessment of their pathogenic potential in naturally infected goats.

BACKGROUND Small ruminant lentiviruses escaping efficient serological detection are still circulating in Swiss goats in spite of a long eradication campaign that essentially eliminated clinical cases of caprine arthritis encephalitis in the country. This strongly suggests that the circulating viruses are avirulent for goats.To test this hypothesis, we isolated circulating viruses from naturally infected animals and tested the in vitro and in vivo characteristics of these field isolates. METHODS Viruses were isolated from primary macrophage cultures. The presence of lentiviruses in the culture supernatants was monitored by reverse transcriptase assay. Isolates were passaged in different cells and their cytopathogenic effects monitored by microscopy. Proviral load was quantified by real-time PCR using customized primer and probes. Statistical analysis comprised Analysis of Variance and Bonferroni Multiple Comparison Test. RESULTS The isolated viruses belonged to the small ruminant lentiviruses A4 subtype that appears to be prominent in Switzerland. The 4 isolates replicated very efficiently in macrophages, displaying heterogeneous phenotypes, with two isolates showing a pronounced cytopathogenicity for these cells. By contrast, all 4 isolates had a poor replication capacity in goat and sheep fibroblasts. The proviral loads in the peripheral blood and, in particular, in the mammary gland were surprisingly high compared to previous observations. Nevertheless, these viruses appear to be of low virulence for goats except for the mammary gland were histopathological changes were observed. CONCLUSIONS Small ruminant lentiviruses continue to circulate in Switzerland despite a long and expensive caprine arthritis encephalitis virus eradication campaign. We isolated 4 of these lentiviruses and confirmed their phylogenetic association with the prominent A4 subtype. The pathological and histopathological analysis of the infected animals supported the hypothesis that these A4 viruses are of low pathogenicity for goats, with, however, a caveat about the potentially detrimental effects on the mammary gland. Moreover, the high proviral load detected indicates that the immune system of the animals cannot control the infection and this, combined with the phenotypic plasticity observed in vitro, strongly argues in favour of a continuous and precise monitoring of these SRLV to avoid the risk of jeopardizing a long eradication campaign.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Monitoring Strategies for Antiretroviral Therapy of HIV Infected Patients in Resource-Limited Settings: Software Tool.

BACKGROUND The cost-effectiveness of routine viral load (VL) monitoring of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) depends on various factors that differ between settings and across time. Low-cost point-of-care (POC) tests for VL are in development and may make routine VL monitoring affordable in resource-limited settings. We developed a software tool to study the cost-effectiveness of switching to second-line ART with different monitoring strategies, and focused on POC-VL monitoring. METHODS We used a mathematical model to simulate cohorts of patients from start of ART until death. We modeled 13 strategies (no 2nd-line, clinical, CD4 (with or without targeted VL), POC-VL, and laboratory-based VL monitoring, with different frequencies). We included a scenario with identical failure rates across strategies, and one in which routine VL monitoring reduces the risk of failure. We compared lifetime costs and averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). We developed an Excel tool to update the results of the model for varying unit costs and cohort characteristics, and conducted several sensitivity analyses varying the input costs. RESULTS Introducing 2nd-line ART had an ICER of US$1651-1766/DALY averted. Compared with clinical monitoring, the ICER of CD4 monitoring was US$1896-US$5488/DALY averted and VL monitoring US$951-US$5813/DALY averted. We found no difference between POC- and laboratory-based VL monitoring, except for the highest measurement frequency (every 6 months), where laboratory-based testing was more effective. Targeted VL monitoring was on the cost-effectiveness frontier only if the difference between 1st- and 2nd-line costs remained large, and if we assumed that routine VL monitoring does not prevent failure. CONCLUSION Compared with the less expensive strategies, the cost-effectiveness of routine VL monitoring essentially depends on the cost of 2nd-line ART. Our Excel tool is useful for determining optimal monitoring strategies for specific settings, with specific sex-and age-distributions and unit costs.

The 1985 catastrophic drainage of a moraine-dammed lake, Khumbu Himal, Nepal: cause and consequences

On 4 August 1985 Dig Tsho, a moraine-dammed glacial lake in the Khumbu area of eastern Nepal, burst above Thame. For the region close to the origin of the outbreak the consequences were catastrophic. The destruction of a newly built hydroelectricp ower plant, 14 bridges, about 30 houses, and many hectares of valuable arable land, as well as a heavily damaged trail network, resulted from 5 million m3 of water plummetting down the Bhote Kosi and Dudh Kosi valleys. The breaching of the moraine was triggered by wave action following an ice avalanche of 150,000 m3 into the lake. The surge had a peak discharge of 1,600 m3/sec; 3 million m3 of debris were moved within a distance of less than 40 km. However, only 10-15 percent of the material left the region as suspended load. The potential hazard of glacial lakes persists and increases. A hazard assessment including an identificationo f source areas and subsequent monitoring of glacial lakes is proposed. It should be incorporated into any development concept for the Himalayan region.

Soil and land information: How to support decision-making?

Soils are fundamental to ensuring water, energy and food security. Within the context of sus- tainable food production, it is important to share knowledge on existing and emerging tech- nologies that support land and soil monitoring. Technologies, such as remote sensing, mobile soil testing, and digital soil mapping, have the potential to identify degraded and non- /little-responsive soils, and may also provide a basis for programmes targeting the protection and rehabilitation of soils. In the absence of such information, crop production assessments are often not based on the spatio-temporal variability in soil characteristics. In addition, uncertain- ties in soil information systems are notable and build up when predictions are used for monitor- ing soil properties or biophysical modelling. Consequently, interpretations of model-based results have to be done cautiously. As such they provide a scientific, but not always manage- able, basis for farmers and/or policymakers. In general, the key incentives for stakeholders to aim for sustainable management of soils and more resilient food systems are complex at farm as well as higher levels. The same is true of drivers of soil degradation. The decision- making process aimed at sustainable soil management, be that at farm or higher level, also in- volves other goals and objectives valued by stakeholders, e.g. land governance, improved envi- ronmental quality, climate change adaptation and mitigation etc. In this dialogue session we will share ideas on recent developments in the discourse on soils, their functions and the role of soil and land information in enhancing food system resilience.

Science to practice: Can diffusion-weighted MR imaging findings be used as biomarkers to monitor the progression of renal fibrosis?

In an experimental murine model of unilateral ureteral obstruction, Togao et al demonstrated that diffusion-weighted (DW) magnetic resonance (MR) imaging can depict and enable monitoring of abnormal changes in the progression of renal fibrosis; because these microstructural changes are complex and multifactorial, future studies focused on their specificity should be performed before they are applied in clinical trials.