46 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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Aims The effects of a system based on minimally trained first responders (FR) dispatched simultaneously with the emergency medical services (EMS) of the local hospital in a mixed urban and rural area in Northwestern Switzerland were examined. Methods and results In this prospective study 500 voluntary fire fighters received a 4-h training in basic-life-support using automated-external-defibrillation (AED). FR and EMS were simultaneously dispatched in a two-tier rescue system. During the years 2001–2008, response times, resuscitation interventions and outcomes were monitored. 1334 emergencies were included. The FR reached the patients (mean age 60.4 ± 19 years; 65% male) within 6 ± 3 min after emergency calls compared to 12 ± 5 min by the EMS (p < 0.0001). Seventy-six percent of the 297 OHCAs occurred at home. Only 3 emergencies with resuscitation attempts occurred at the main railway station equipped with an on-site AED. FR were on the scene before arrival of the EMS in 1166 (87.4%) cases. Of these, the FR used AED in 611 patients for monitoring or defibrillation. CPR was initiated by the FR in 164 (68.9% of 238 resuscitated patients). 124 patients were defibrillated, of whom 93 (75.0%) were defibrillated first by the FR. Eighteen patients (of whom 13 were defibrillated by the FR) were discharged from hospital in good neurological condition. Conclusions Minimally trained fire fighters integrated in an EMS as FR contributed substantially to an increase of the survival rate of OHCAs in a mixed urban and rural area.

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It is generally difficult to establish a timeline for the appearance of different technologies and tools during human cultural evolution. Here I use stochastic character mapping of discrete traits using human mtDNA phylogenies rooted to the Reconstructed Sapiens Reference Sequence (RSRS) as a model to address this question. The analysis reveals that the ancestral state of Homo sapiens was hunting, using material innovations that included bows and arrows, stone axes and spears. However, around 80,000 y before present, a transition occurred, from this ancestral hunting tradition, toward the invention of protective weapons such as shields, the appearance of ritual fighting as a socially accepted behavior and the construction of war canoes for the fast transport of large numbers of warriors. This model suggests a major cultural change, during the Palaeolithic, from hunters to warriors. Moreover, in the light of the recent Out of Africa Theory, it suggests that the “Out of Africa Tribe” was a tribe of warriors that had developed protective weapons such as shields and used big war canoes to travel the sea coast and big rivers in raiding expeditions.

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The behavior of sample components whose pI values are outside the pH gradient established by 101 hypothetical biprotic carrier ampholytes covering a pH 6-8 range was investigated by computer simulation under constant current conditions with concomitant constant electroosmosis toward the cathode. Data obtained with the sample being applied between zones of carrier ampholytes and on the anodic side of the carrier ampholytes were studied and found to evolve into zone structures comprising three regions between anolyte and catholyte. The focusing region with the pH gradient is bracketed by two isotachopheretic zone structures comprising selected sample and carrier components as isotachophoretic zones. The isotachophoretic structures electrophoretically migrate in opposite direction and their lengths increase with time due to the gradual isotachophoretic decay at the pH gradient edges. Due to electroosmosis, however, the overall pattern is being transported toward the cathode. Sample components whose pI values are outside the established pH gradient are demonstrated to form isotachophoretic zones behind the leading cation of the catholyte (components with pI values larger than 8) and the leading anion of the anolyte (components with pI values smaller than 6). Amphoteric compounds with appropriate pI values or nonamphoteric components can act as isotachophoretic spacer compounds between sample compounds or between the leader and the sample with the highest mobility. The simulation data obtained provide for the first time insight into the dynamics of amphoteric sample components that do not focus within the established pH gradient.

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An updated search is performed for gluino, top squark, or bottom squark R-hadrons that have come to rest within the ATLAS calorimeter, and decay at some later time to hadronic jets and a neutralino, using 5.0 and 22.9 fb(-1) of pp collisions at 7 and 8 TeV, respectively. Candidate decay events are triggered in selected empty bunch crossings of the LHC in order to remove pp collision backgrounds. Selections based on jet shape and muon system activity are applied to discriminate signal events from cosmic ray and beam-halo muon backgrounds. In the absence of an excess of events, improved limits are set on gluino, stop, and sbottom masses for different decays, lifetimes, and neutralino masses. With a neutralino of mass 100 GeV, the analysis excludes gluinos with mass below 832 GeV (with an expected lower limit of 731 GeV), for a gluino lifetime between 10 mu s and 1000 s in the generic R-hadron model with equal branching ratios for decays to q (q) over bar(chi) over tilde (0) and g (chi) over tilde (0). Under the same assumptions for the neutralino mass and squark lifetime, top squarks and bottom squarks in the Regge R-hadron model are excluded with masses below 379 and 344 GeV, respectively.

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Due to significant improvement in the pre-hospital treatment of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), an increasing number of initially resuscitated patients are being admitted to hospitals. Because of the limited data available and lack of clear guideline recommendations, experts from the EAPCI and "Stent for Life" (SFL) groups reviewed existing literature and provided practical guidelines on selection of patients for immediate coronary angiography (CAG), PCI strategy, concomitant antiplatelet/anticoagulation treatment, haemodynamic support and use of therapeutic hypothermia. Conscious survivors of OHCA with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) should be treated according to recommendations for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and high-risk non-ST-segment elevation -ACS (NSTE-ACS) without OHCA and should undergo immediate (if STEMI) or rapid (less than two hours if NSTE-ACS) coronary invasive strategy. Comatose survivors of OHCA with ECG criteria for STEMI on the post-resuscitation ECG should be admitted directly to the catheterisation laboratory. For patients without STEMI ECG criteria, a short "emergency department or intensive care unit stop" is advised to exclude non-coronary causes. In the absence of an obvious non-coronary cause, CAG should be performed as soon as possible (less than two hours), in particular in haemodynamically unstable patients. Immediate PCI should be mainly directed towards the culprit lesion if identified. Interventional cardiologists should become an essential part of the "survival chain" for patients with OHCA. There is a need to centralise the care of patients with OHCA to experienced centres.

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Although brand authenticity is gaining increasing interest in academia and managerial practice, empirical studies on its contribution to the branding literature are still limited. The authors therefore conceptually and empirically examine the emergence and outcomes of perceived brand authenticity (PBA). A prior multi-phase scale development process resulted in a 17-item PBA scale to measure its four dimensions of credibility, integrity, symbolism, and longevity. Brand authenticity perceptions are influenced by indexical, existential, and iconic cues, whereby the latter’s influence is moderated by consumers’ level of marketing skepticism. Further, PBA increases emotional brand attachment. This relationship is particularly strong for consumers with a high level of self-authenticity. In addition, PBA effects are stronger in a North American market context compared to a European context.

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Dating lake sediments by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C analysis of terrestrial plant macrofossils overcomes one of the main problems associated with dating bulk sediment samples, i.e., the presence of old organic matter. Even so, many AMS dates from arctic and boreal sites appear to misrepresent the age of the sediment. To understand the nature of these apparent dating anomalies better, we conducted a series of 14C dating experiments using samples from Alaskan and Siberian lake-sediment cores. First, to test whether our analytical procedures introduced a sample-mass bias, we obtained 14C dates for different-sized pieces of single woody macrofossils. In these sample-mass experiments, statistically equivalent ages were found for samples as small as 0.05 mg C. Secondly, to assess whether macrofossil type influenced dating results, we conducted sample-type experiments in which 14C dates were obtained for different macrofossil types sieved from the same depth in the sediment. We dated materials from multiple levels in sediment cores from Upper Capsule Lake (North Slope, northern Alaska) and Grizzly Lake (Copper River Basin, southern Alaska) and from single depths in other records from northern Alaska. In several of the experiments there were significant discrepancies between dates for different plant tissues, and in most cases wood and charcoal were older than other macrofossil types, usually by several hundred years. This pattern suggests that 14C dates for woody macrofossils may misrepresent the age of the sediment by centuries, perhaps because of their longer terrestrial residence time and the potential in-built age of longlived plants. This study identifies why some 14C dates appear to be inconsistent with the overall age-depth trend of a lake-sediment record, and it may guide the selection of 14C samples in future studies.