Family change theory: A preliminary evaluation on the basis of recent cross-cultural studies

Family change theory (Kagitcibasi, 1996, 2007) is an approach which can be used to explain how modernisation and globalisation processes affect the family. The most important assumption of the theory is that when traditional interdependent cultures modernise, they need not necessarily develop in the direction of the independent family model typical of Western individualistic societies. Instead, they may develop towards a family model of emotional interdependence that combines continuing emotional interdependencies in the family with declining material interdependencies and with rising personal autonomy. In this chapter a preliminary evaluation of the empirical status of family change theory is given based on a review of recent cross-cultural studies. It will be shown to what extent the few studies that have been systematically conducted in this respect have found results either supporting or not supporting aspects ofthe theory, and where the strengths and problems of this research lie.

Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” Humlum et al. [Glob. Planet. Change 100: 51–69.]: Isotopes ignored

A recent study relying purely on statistical analysis of relatively short time series suggested substantial re-thinking of the traditional view about causality explaining the detected rising trend of atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) concentrations. If these results are well-justified then they should surely compel a fundamental scientific shift in paradigms regarding both atmospheric greenhouse warming mechanism and global carbon cycle. However, the presented work suffers from serious logical deficiencies such as, 1) what could be the sink for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, if neither the atmosphere nor the ocean – as suggested by the authors – plays a role? 2) What is the alternative explanation for ocean acidification if the ocean is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere? Probably the most provocative point of the commented study is that anthropogenic emissions have little influence on atmCO2 concentrations. The authors have obviously ignored the reconstructed and directly measured carbon isotopic trends of atmCO2 (both δ13C, and radiocarbon dilution) and the declining O2/N2 ratio, although these parameters provide solid evidence that fossil fuel combustion is the major source of atmCO2 increase throughout the Industrial Era.

Agroecosystem resilience and farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts on cocoa farms in Alto Beni, Bolivia

Cocoa-based small-scale agriculture is the most important source of income for most farming families in the region of Alto Beni in the sub-humid foothills of the Andes. Cocoa is grown in cultivation systems of varying ecological complexity. The plantations are highly susceptible to climate change impacts. Local cocoa producers mention heat waves, droughts, floods and plant diseases as the main impacts affecting plants and working conditions, and they associate these impacts with global climate change. From a sustainable regional development point of view, cocoa farms need to become more resilient in order to cope with the climate change related effects that are putting cocoa-based livelihoods at risk. This study assesses agroecosystem resilience under three different cocoa cultivation systems (successional agroforestry, simple agroforestry and common practice monocultures). In a first step, farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts were assessed and eight indicators of agroecological resilience were derived in a transdisciplinary process (focus groups and workshop) based on farmers’ and scientists’ knowledge. These indicators (soil organic matter, depth of Ah horizon, soil bulk density, tree species diversity, crop varieties diversity, ant species diversity, cocoa yields and infestation of cocoa trees with Moniliophthora perniciosa) were then surveyed on 15 cocoa farms and compared for the three different cultivation systems. Parts of the socio-economic aspects of resilience were covered by evaluating the role of cocoa cooperatives and organic certification in transitioning to more resilient cocoa farms (interviews with 15 cocoa farmers combined with five expert interviews). Agroecosystem resilience was higher under the two agroforestry systems than under common practice monoculture, especially under successional agroforestry. Both agroforestry systems achieved higher cocoa yields than common practice monoculture due to agroforestry farmers’ enhanced knowledge regarding cocoa cultivation. Knowledge sharing was promoted by local organizations facilitating organic certification. These organizations were thus found to enhance the social process of farmers’ integration into cooperatives and their reorientation toward organic principles and diversified agroforestry.

Bounds for the probability generating functional of a Gibbs point process

We derive explicit lower and upper bounds for the probability generating functional of a stationary locally stable Gibbs point process, which can be applied to summary statistics such as the F function. For pairwise interaction processes we obtain further estimates for the G and K functions, the intensity, and higher-order correlation functions. The proof of the main result is based on Stein's method for Poisson point process approximation.

A point mutation in cpsE renders Streptococcus pneumoniae nonencapsulated and enhances its growth, adherence and competence

BackgroundThe polysaccharide capsule is a major virulence factor of the important human pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae. However, S. pneumoniae strains lacking capsule do occur.ResultsHere, we report a nasopharyngeal isolate of Streptococcus pneumoniae composed of a mixture of two phenotypes; one encapsulated (serotype 18C) and the other nonencapsulated, determined by serotyping, electron microscopy and fluorescence isothiocyanate dextran exclusion assay.By whole genome sequencing, we demonstrated that the phenotypes differ by a single nucleotide base pair in capsular gene cpsE (C to G change at gene position 1135) predicted to result in amino acid change from arginine to glycine at position 379, located in the cytoplasmic, enzymatically active, region of this transmembrane protein. This SNP is responsible for loss of capsule production as the phenotype is transferred with the capsule operon. The nonencapsulated variant is superior in growth in vitro and is also 117-fold more adherent to and more invasive into Detroit 562 human epithelial cells than the encapsulated variant.Expression of six competence pathway genes and one competence-associated gene was 11 to 34-fold higher in the nonencapsulated variant than the encapsulated and transformation frequency was 3.7-fold greater.ConclusionsWe identified a new single point mutation in capsule gene cpsE of a clinical S. pneumoniae serotype 18C isolate sufficient to cause loss of capsule expression resulting in the co-existence of the encapsulated and nonencapsulated phenotype. The mutation caused phenotypic changes in growth, adherence to epithelial cells and transformability. Mutation in capsule gene cpsE may be a way for S. pneumoniae to lose its capsule and increase its colonization potential.

Effect of high-intensity statin therapy on atherosclerosis in non-infarct-related coronary arteries (IBIS-4): a serial intravascular ultrasonography study

AIM The effect of long-term high-intensity statin therapy on coronary atherosclerosis among patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is unknown. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of high-intensity statin therapy on plaque burden, composition, and phenotype in non-infarct-related arteries of STEMI patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS AND RESULTS Between September 2009 and January 2011, 103 STEMI patients underwent intravascular ultrasonography (IVUS) and radiofrequency ultrasonography (RF-IVUS) of the two non-infarct-related epicardial coronary arteries (non-IRA) after successful primary PCI. Patients were treated with high-intensity rosuvastatin (40 mg/day) throughout 13 months and serial intracoronary imaging with the analysis of matched segments was available for 82 patients with 146 non-IRA. The primary IVUS end-point was the change in per cent atheroma volume (PAV). After 13 months, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) had decreased from a median of 3.29 to 1.89 mmol/L (P < 0.001), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels had increased from 1.10 to 1.20 mmol/L (P < 0.001). PAV of the non-IRA decreased by -0.9% (95% CI: -1.56 to -0.25, P = 0.007). Patients with regression in at least one non-IRA were more common (74%) than those without (26%). Per cent necrotic core remained unchanged (-0.05%, 95% CI: -1.05 to 0.96%, P = 0.93) as did the number of RF-IVUS defined thin cap fibroatheromas (124 vs. 116, P = 0.15). CONCLUSION High-intensity rosuvastatin therapy over 13 months is associated with regression of coronary atherosclerosis in non-infarct-related arteries without changes in RF-IVUS defined necrotic core or plaque phenotype among STEMI patients.

Gibbs point process approximation: Total variation bounds using Stein's method

We obtain upper bounds for the total variation distance between the distributions of two Gibbs point processes in a very general setting. Applications are provided to various well-known processes and settings from spatial statistics and statistical physics, including the comparison of two Lennard-Jones processes, hard core approximation of an area interaction process and the approximation of lattice processes by a continuous Gibbs process. Our proof of the main results is based on Stein's method. We construct an explicit coupling between two spatial birth-death processes to obtain Stein factors, and employ the Georgii-Nguyen-Zessin equation for the total bound.

Development and validation of a quantitative method to assess pedicle screw loosening in posterior spine instrumentation on plain radiographs.

PURPOSE Currently, the diagnosis of pedicle screw (PS) loosening is based on a subjectively assessed halo sign, that is, a radiolucent line around the implant wider than 1 mm in plain radiographs. We aimed at development and validation of a quantitative method to diagnose PS loosening on radiographs. METHODS Between 11/2004 and 1/2010 36 consecutive patients treated with thoraco-lumbar spine fusion with PS instrumentation without PS loosening were compared with 37 other patients who developed a clinically manifesting PS loosening. Three different angles were measured and compared regarding their capability to discriminate the loosened PS over the postoperative course. The inter-observer invariance was tested and a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was performed. RESULTS The angle measured between the PS axis and the cranial endplate was significantly different between the early and all later postoperative images. The Spearman correlation coefficient for the measurements of two observers at each postoperative time point ranged between 0.89 at 2 weeks to 0.94 at 2 months and 1 year postoperative. The angle change of 1.9° between immediate postoperative and 6-month postoperative was 75% sensitive and 89% specific for the identification of loosened screws (AUC = 0.82). DISCUSSION The angle between the PS axis and the cranial endplate showed good ability to change in PS loosening. A change of this angle of at least 2° had a relatively high sensitivity and specificity to diagnose screw loosening.

Adapting agricultural water governance to climate change: Experiences from Germany, Spain and California

This study describes and discusses initiatives taken by public (water) agencies in the state of Brandenburg in Germany, the state of California in the USA and the Ebro River Basin in Spain in response to the challenges which climate change poses for the agricultural water sector. The drivers and actors and the process of changing agricultural water governance are its particular focus. The assumptions discussed are: (i) the degree of planned and anticipatory top-down implementation processes decreases if actions are more decentralized and are introduced at the regional and local level; (ii) the degree of autonomous and responsive adaptation approaches seems to grow with actions at a lower administrative level. Looking at processes of institutional change, a variety of drivers and actors are at work such as changing perceptions of predicted climate impacts; international obligations which force politicians to take action; socio-economic concerns such as the cost of not taking action; the economic interests of the private sector. Drivers are manifold and often interact and, in many cases, reforms in the sector are driven by and associated with larger reform agendas. The results of the study may serve as a starting point in assisting water agencies in developing countries with the elaboration of coping strategies for tackling climate change-induced risks related to agricultural water management.

Neural change following different memory training approaches in very preterm born children - A pilot study.

OBJECTIVE There is mixed evidence regarding neural change following cognitive training. Brain activation increase, decrease, or a combination of both may occur. We investigated training-induced neural change using two different memory training approaches. METHODS Very preterm born children (aged 7-12 years) were randomly allocated to a memory strategy training, an intensive working memory practice or a waiting control group. Before and immediately after the trainings and the waiting period, brain activation during a visual working memory task was measured using fMRI and cognitive performance was assessed. RESULTS Following both memory trainings, there was a significant decrease of fronto-parietal brain activation and a significant increase of memory performance. In the control group, no neural or performance change occurred after the waiting period. CONCLUSION These pilot data point towards a training-related decrease of brain activation, independent of the training approach. Our data highlight the high training-induced plasticity of the child's brain during development.

Performance of HBsAg point-of-care tests for detection of diagnostic escape-variants in clinical samples

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B viruses (HBV) harboring mutations in the a-determinant of the Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) are associated with reduced reactivity of HBsAg assays. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of three HBsAg point-of-care tests for the detection of HBsAg of viruses harboring HBsAg mutations. STUDY DESIGN A selection of 50 clinical plasma samples containing HBV with HBsAg mutations was used to evaluate the performance of three HBsAg point-of-care tests (Vikia(®), bioMérieux, Marcy-L'Étoile, France. Alere Determine HBsAg™, Iverness Biomedical Innovations, Köln, Germany. Quick Profile™, LumiQuick Diagnostics, California, USA) and compared to the ARCHITECT HBsAg Qualitative(®) assay (Abbott Laboratories, Sligo, Ireland). RESULTS The sensitivity of the point-of-care tests ranged from 98% to 100%. The only false-negative result occurred using the Quick Profile™ assay with a virus harboring a D144A mutation. CONCLUSIONS The evaluated point-of-care tests revealed an excellent sensitivity in detecting HBV samples harboring HBsAg mutations.

Regularity conditions in the realisability problem in applications to point processes and random closed sets

We study existence of random elements with partially specified distributions. The technique relies on the existence of a positive ex-tension for linear functionals accompanied by additional conditions that ensure the regularity of the extension needed for interpreting it as a probability measure. It is shown in which case the extens ion can be chosen to possess some invariance properties. The results are applied to the existence of point processes with given correlation measure and random closed sets with given two-point covering function or contact distribution function. It is shown that the regularity condition can be efficiently checked in many cases in order to ensure that the obtained point processes are indeed locally finite and random sets have closed realisations.

Research for Mitigating Syndromes of Global Change: Research for Mitigating Syndromes of Global Change. A Transdisciplinary Appraisal of Selected Regions of the World to Prepare Development-Oriented Research Partnerships

The present publication is the final outcome of the "Syndrome Pre-SynthesisProject" (SPSP), a preparatory project initiated in 2001 to pave the way for the NCCR North-South. The SPSP applied a transdisciplinary approach to identify research partnerships for development in 8 regions of the world. The primary aim of the present publication is to present an initial synthesis of core problems in each region, of the status and focus of related research, and of corresponding new research needs. Based on the results of this participatory process, the NCCR North-South programme has followed up on the outcomes of the regional syntheses by identifying future research aims along the general lines determined in the workshops.