Hepatitis C in HIV-infected individuals: a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimated prevalence in Africa.

INTRODUCTION Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is recommended for all HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, data on epidemiologic characteristics of HCV infection in resource-limited settings are scarce. METHODS We searched PubMed and EMBASE for studies assessing the prevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected individuals in Africa and extracted data on laboratory methods used. Prevalence estimates from individual studies were combined for each country using random-effects meta-analysis. The importance of study design, population and setting as well as type of test (anti-HCV antibody tests and polymerase chain reactions) was examined with meta-regression. RESULTS Three randomized controlled trials, 28 cohort studies and 121 cross-sectional analyses with 108,180 HIV-infected individuals from 35 countries were included. The majority of data came from outpatient populations (55%), followed by blood donors (15%) and pregnant women (14%). Based on estimates from 159 study populations, anti-HCV positivity prevalence ranged between 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-4.7) in Southern Africa and 42.3% (95% CI 4.1-80.5) in North Africa. Study design, type of setting and age distribution did not influence this prevalence significantly. The prevalence of replicating HCV infection, estimated from data of 29 cohorts, was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.6). Ten studies from nine countries reported the HCV genotype of 74 samples, 53% were genotype 1, 24% genotype 2, 14% genotype 4 and 9% genotypes 3, 5 or 6. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies is high in HIV-infected patients in Africa, but replicating HCV infection is rare and varies widely across countries.

Placebo-controlled trials of Chinese herbal medicine and conventional medicine - comparative study

BACKGROUND: Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) is increasingly used in the West, but the evidence on its effectiveness is a matter of debate. We compared the characteristics, study quality and results of clinical trials of CHM and conventional medicine. METHODS: Comparative study of placebo-controlled trials of CHM and conventional medicine. Eleven bibliographic databases and searches by hand of 48 Chinese-language journals. Conventional medicine trials matched for condition and type of outcome were randomly selected from the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (issue 1, 2003). Trials described as double-blind, with adequate generation of allocation sequence and adequate concealment of allocation, were assumed to be of high quality. Data were analysed using funnel plots and multivariable meta-regression models. RESULTS: 136 CHM trials (119 published in Chinese, 17 published in English) and 136 matched conventional medicine trials (125 published in English) were analysed. The quality of Chinese-language CHM trials tended to be lower than that of English-language CHM trials and conventional medicine trials. Three (2%) CHM trials and 10 (7%) conventional medicine trials were of high quality. In all groups, smaller trials showed more beneficial treatment effects than larger trials. CHM trials published in Chinese showed considerably larger effects than CHM trials published in English (adjusted ratio of ORs 0.29, 95% confidence intervals 0.17-0.52). CONCLUSIONS: Biases are present both in placebo-controlled trials of CHM and conventional medicine, but may be most pronounced in CHM trials published in Chinese-language journals. Only few CHM trials of adequate methodology exist and the effectiveness of CHM therefore remains poorly documented.

Transcutaneous electrostimulation for osteoarthritis of the knee

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis is the most common form of joint disease and the leading cause of pain and physical disability in the elderly. Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS), interferential current stimulation and pulsed electrostimulation are used widely to control both acute and chronic pain arising from several conditions, but some policy makers regard efficacy evidence as insufficient. OBJECTIVES: To compare transcutaneous electrostimulation with sham or no specific intervention in terms of effects on pain and withdrawals due to adverse events in patients with knee osteoarthritis. SEARCH STRATEGY: We updated the search in CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and PEDro up to 5 August 2008, checked conference proceedings and reference lists, and contacted authors. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials that compared transcutaneously applied electrostimulation with a sham intervention or no intervention in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted data using standardised forms and contacted investigators to obtain missing outcome information. Main outcomes were pain and withdrawals or dropouts due to adverse events. We calculated standardised mean differences (SMDs) for pain and relative risks for safety outcomes and used inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. The analysis of pain was based on predicted estimates from meta-regression using the standard error as explanatory variable. MAIN RESULTS: In this update we identified 14 additional trials resulting in the inclusion of 18 small trials in 813 patients. Eleven trials used TENS, four interferential current stimulation, one both TENS and interferential current stimulation, and two pulsed electrostimulation. The methodological quality and the quality of reporting was poor and a high degree of heterogeneity among the trials (I(2) = 80%) was revealed. The funnel plot for pain was asymmetrical (P < 0.001). The predicted SMD of pain intensity in trials as large as the largest trial was -0.07 (95% CI -0.46 to 0.32), corresponding to a difference in pain scores between electrostimulation and control of 0.2 cm on a 10 cm visual analogue scale. There was little evidence that SMDs differed on the type of electrostimulation (P = 0.94). The relative risk of being withdrawn or dropping out due to adverse events was 0.97 (95% CI 0.2 to 6.0). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In this update, we could not confirm that transcutaneous electrostimulation is effective for pain relief. The current systematic review is inconclusive, hampered by the inclusion of only small trials of questionable quality. Appropriately designed trials of adequate power are warranted.

Computer technology applications in surgical implant dentistry: a systematic review

PURPOSE: To assess the literature on accuracy and clinical performance of computer technology applications in surgical implant dentistry. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Electronic and manual literature searches were conducted to collect information about (1) the accuracy and (2) clinical performance of computer-assisted implant systems. Meta-regression analysis was performed for summarizing the accuracy studies. Failure/complication rates were analyzed using random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary estimates of 12-month proportions. RESULTS: Twenty-nine different image guidance systems were included. From 2,827 articles, 13 clinical and 19 accuracy studies were included in this systematic review. The meta-analysis of the accuracy (19 clinical and preclinical studies) revealed a total mean error of 0.74 mm (maximum of 4.5 mm) at the entry point in the bone and 0.85 mm at the apex (maximum of 7.1 mm). For the 5 included clinical studies (total of 506 implants) using computer-assisted implant dentistry, the mean failure rate was 3.36% (0% to 8.45%) after an observation period of at least 12 months. In 4.6% of the treated cases, intraoperative complications were reported; these included limited interocclusal distances to perform guided implant placement, limited primary implant stability, or need for additional grafting procedures. CONCLUSION: Differing levels and quantity of evidence were available for computer-assisted implant placement, revealing high implant survival rates after only 12 months of observation in different indications and a reasonable level of accuracy. However, future long-term clinical data are necessary to identify clinical indications and to justify additional radiation doses, effort, and costs associated with computer-assisted implant surgery.

A systematic review on the accuracy and the clinical outcome of computer-guided template-based implant dentistry

Introduction: The aim of this systematic review was to analyze the dental literature regarding accuracy and clinical application in computer-guided template-based implant dentistry. Materials and methods: An electronic literature search complemented by manual searching was performed to gather data on accuracy and surgical, biological and prosthetic complications in connection with computer-guided implant treatment. For the assessment of accuracy meta-regression analysis was performed. Complication rates are descriptively summarized. Results: From 3120 titles after the literature search, eight articles met the inclusion criteria regarding accuracy and 10 regarding the clinical performance. Meta-regression analysis revealed a mean deviation at the entry point of 1.07 mm (95% CI: 0.76-1.22 mm) and at the apex of 1.63 mm (95% CI: 1.26-2 mm). No significant differences between the studies were found regarding method of template production or template support and stabilization. Early surgical complications occurred in 9.1%, early prosthetic complications in 18.8% and late prosthetic complications in 12% of the cases. Implant survival rates of 91-100% after an observation time of 12-60 months are reported in six clinical studies with 537 implants mainly restored immediately after flapless implantation procedures. Conclusion: Computer-guided template-based implant placement showed high implant survival rates ranging from 91% to 100%. However, a considerable number of technique-related perioperative complications were observed. Preclinical and clinical studies indicated a reasonable mean accuracy with relatively high maximum deviations. Future research should be directed to increase the number of clinical studies with longer observation periods and to improve the systems in terms of perioperative handling, accuracy and prosthetic complications.

HHV-8 seroprevalence: a global view

BACKGROUND Human herpes virus 8 (HHV-8) is the underlying infectious cause of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and other proliferative diseases; that is, primary effusion lymphoma and multicentric Castleman disease. In regions with high HHV-8 seroprevalence in the general population, KS accounts for a major burden of disease. Outside these endemic regions, HHV-8 prevalence is high in men who have sex with men (MSM) and in migrants from endemic regions. We aim to conduct a systematic literature review and meta-analysis in order 1) to define the global distribution of HHV-8 seroprevalence (primary objective) and 2) to identify risk factors for HHV-8 infection, with a focus on HIV status (secondary objective). METHODS/DESIGN We will include observational studies reporting data on seroprevalence of HHV-8 in children and/or adults from any region in the world. Case reports and case series as well as any studies with fewer than 50 participants will be excluded. We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, and relevant conference proceedings without language restriction. Two reviewers will independently screen the identified studies and extract data on study characteristics and quality, study population, risk factors, and reported outcomes, using a standardized form. For the primary objective we will pool the data using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. For the secondary objective (association of HIV and HHV-8) we aim to pool odds ratios for the association of HIV and HHV-8 using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. Sub-group analyses and meta-regression analyses will be used to explore sources of heterogeneity, including factors such as geographical region, calendar years of recruitment, age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, different risk groups for sexually and parenterally transmitted infections (MSM, sex workers, hemophiliacs, intravenous drug users), comorbidities such as organ transplantation and malaria, test(s) used to measure HHV-8 infection, study design, and study quality. DISCUSSION Using the proposed systematic review and meta-analysis, we aim to better define the global seroprevalence of HHV-8 and its associated risk factors. This will improve the current understanding of HHV-8 epidemiology, and could suggest measures to prevent HHV-8 infection and to reduce its associated cancer burden.

Effekte spezifischer Interventionen im Sportunterricht auf die exekutiven Funktionen von Primarschulkindern

Einleitung Die Annahme, dass Sport nicht nur positive Effekte auf die körperliche Gesundheit, sondern auch auf die kognitive Leistung haben kann, konnte anhand experimenteller Studien mit Erwachsenen weitgehend bestätigt werden. Ob dieselben Effekte auch bei Kindern und Jugendlichen vorzufinden sind, kann mit Blick auf die mangelnde empirische Evidenz in dieser Altersgruppe kaum zufriedenstellend beantwortet werden (Chang et al., 2012). Will man zudem der Frage nach den Wirkmechanismen nachgehen, sind Unter-suchungsdesigns angezeigt, die theoriegeleitet verschiedene Sportinterventionen mit unterschiedlichen Beanspruchungsmodalitäten kombinieren. So ist unter der Annahme der cardiovascular fitness hypothesis (Etnier et al., 2006) zur gezielten Förderung der kognitiven Leistungsfähigkeit ein systematisches Ausdauertraining sinnvoll, während theoretische Ansätze, die neurophysiologische Korrelate zur Erklärung des Zusammenhangs zwischen Sport und Kognition heranziehen (Diamond, 2000) eher kognitiv sowie koordinativ anspruchsvolle Sportangebote nahelegen würden. Daher geht der vorliegende Beitrag der Frage nach, ob spezifisch konzipierte langfristige Interventionen im Sportunterricht einen spezifischen Effekt auf die kognitive Leistungsfähigkeit von Primarschulkindern haben können. Methode Im Rahmen der quasiexperimentellen Längsschnittstudie „Sport und Kognition“ (SpuK_5.0) wurden insgesamt 250 Schülerinnen und Schüler von 16 fünften Klassen untersucht. Während knapp zwei Monaten absolvierten je vier Klassen während zwei Lektionen des obligatorischen Sportunterrichts entweder ein spielsportbezogenes EF-Training oder ein Ausdauertraining resp. ein kognitives oder kein spezifisches Training (Kontrollgruppe mit regulärem Sportunterricht). Durch die Konzeption dieser vier Experi-mentalbedingungen wurde sichergestellt, dass alle vier möglichen Kombinationen aus hoher resp. niedriger kognitiver und körperlicher Beanspruchung im Design repräsentiert waren. Ergebnisse und Diskussion Im Beitrag werden erste Ergebnisse der noch laufendenden SpuK_5.0-Studie vorgestellt und vor dem Hintergrund aktueller theoretischer Annahmen zu den zugrundeliegenden Wirkmechanismen diskutiert. Literatur Chang, Y. K., Labban, J. D., Gapin, J. I., & Etnier, J. L. (2012). The effects of acute exercise on cognitive performance: A meta-analysis. Brain Research, 1453, 87-101. Diamond, A. (2000). Close interrelation of motor development and cognitive development and of the cere-bellum and prefrontal cortex. Child Development, 71, 44-56. Etnier, J. L., Nowell, P. M., Landers, D. M., & Sibley, B. A. (2006). A meta-regression to examine the rela-tionship between aerobic fitness and cognitive performance. BRAIN RESEARCH, 52, 119-130.

Early Improvement As a Predictor of Later Response to Antipsychotics in Schizophrenia: A Diagnostic Test Review

OBJECTIVE How long clinicians should wait before considering an antipsychotic ineffective and changing treatment in schizophrenia is an unresolved clinical question. Guidelines differ substantially in this regard. The authors conducted a diagnostic test meta-analysis using mostly individual patient data to assess whether lack of improvement at week 2 predicts later nonresponse. METHOD The search included EMBASE, MEDLINE, BIOSIS, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant articles, supplemented by requests to authors of all relevant studies. The main outcome was prediction of nonresponse, defined as <50% reduction in total score on either the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) or Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) (corresponding to at least much improved) from baseline to endpoint (4-12 weeks), by <20% PANSS or BPRS improvement (corresponding to less than minimally improved) at week 2. Secondary outcomes were absent cross-sectional symptomatic remission and <20% PANSS or BPRS reduction at endpoint. Potential moderator variables were examined by meta-regression. RESULTS In 34 studies (N=9,460) a <20% PANSS or BPRS reduction at week 2 predicted nonresponse at endpoint with a specificity of 86% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 90%. Using data for observed cases (specificity=86%, PPV=85%) or lack of remission (specificity=77%, PPV=88%) yielded similar results. Conversely, using the definition of <20% reduction at endpoint yielded worse results (specificity=70%, PPV=55%). The test specificity was significantly moderated by a trial duration of <6 weeks, higher baseline illness severity, and shorter illness duration. CONCLUSIONS Patients not even minimally improved by week 2 of antipsychotic treatment are unlikely to respond later and may benefit from a treatment change.

A modified test for small-study effects in meta-analyses of controlled trials with binary endpoints

Publication bias and related bias in meta-analysis is often examined by visually checking for asymmetry in funnel plots of treatment effect against its standard error. Formal statistical tests of funnel plot asymmetry have been proposed, but when applied to binary outcome data these can give false-positive rates that are higher than the nominal level in some situations (large treatment effects, or few events per trial, or all trials of similar sizes). We develop a modified linear regression test for funnel plot asymmetry based on the efficient score and its variance, Fisher's information. The performance of this test is compared to the other proposed tests in simulation analyses based on the characteristics of published controlled trials. When there is little or no between-trial heterogeneity, this modified test has a false-positive rate close to the nominal level while maintaining similar power to the original linear regression test ('Egger' test). When the degree of between-trial heterogeneity is large, none of the tests that have been proposed has uniformly good properties.

Risk of adverse effects of intensified treatment in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis

While the benefits of intensified insulin treatment in insulin-dependent (Type 1) diabetes mellitus (IDDM) are well recognized, the risks have not been comprehensively characterized. We examined the risk of severe hypoglycaemia, ketoacidosis, and death in a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. The MEDLINE database, reference lists, and specialist journals were searched electronically or by hand to identify relevant studies with at least 6 months of follow-up and the monitoring of glycaemia by glycosylated haemoglobin measurements. Logistic regression was used for calculation of combined odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The influence of covariates was examined by including covariate-by-treatment interaction terms. Methodological study quality was assessed and sensitivity analyses were performed. Fourteen trials were identified. These contributed 16 comparisons with 1028 patients allocated to intensified and 1039 allocated to conventional treatment. A total of 846 patients suffered at least one episode of severe hypoglycaemia, 175 patients experienced ketoacidosis and 26 patients died. The combined odds ratio (95% CI) for hypoglycaemia was 2.99 (2.45-3.64), for ketoacidosis 1.74 (1.27-2.38) and for death from all causes 1.40 (0.65-3.01). The risk of severe hypoglycaemia was determined by the degree of normalization of glycaemia achieved (p=0.005 for interaction term), with the results from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) in line with the other trials. Ketoacidosis risk depended on the type of intensified treatment used. Odds ratios (95% CI) were 7.20 (2.95-17.58) for exclusive use of pumps, 1.13 (0.15-8.35) for multiple daily injections and 1.28 (0.90-1.83) for trials offering a choice between the two (p = 0.004 for interaction). Mortality was significantly (p = 0.007) increased for causes potentially associated with acute complications (7 vs 0 deaths, 5 deaths attributed to ketoacidosis, and 2 sudden deaths), and non-significantly (p = 0.16) decreased for macrovascular causes (3 vs 8 deaths). We conclude that there is a substantial risk of severe adverse effects associated with intensified insulin treatment. Mortality from acute metabolic causes is increased; however, this is largely counterbalanced by a reduction in cardiovascular mortality. The excess of severe hypoglycemia in the DCCT is not exceptional. Multiple daily injection schemes may be safer than treatment with insulin pumps.

RISK OF SHUNT-DEPENDENT HYDROCEPHALUS AFTER OCCLUSION OF RUPTURED INTRACRANIAL ANEURYSMS BY SURGICAL CLIPPING OR ENDOVASCULAR COILING: A SINGLE-INSTITUTION SERIES AND META-ANALYSIS

OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of shunt-dependent hydrocephalus after treatment of ruptured intracranial aneurysms by clipping versus coiling. METHODS: We analyzed 596 patients prospectively added to our database from July of 1999 to November of 2005 concerning the risk of shunt dependency after clipping versus coiling. Factors analyzed included age; sex; Hunt and Hess grade; Fisher grade; acute hydrocephalus; intraventricular hemorrhage; angiographic vasospasm; and number, size, and location of aneurysms. In addition, a meta-analysis of available data from the literature was performed identifying four studies with quantitative data on the frequency of clip, coil, and shunt dependency. RESULTS: The institutional series revealed Hunt and Hess grade, Fisher grade, acute hydrocephalus, intraventricular hemorrhage, and angiographic vasospasm as significant (P < 0.05) risk factors for shunt dependency after a univariate analysis. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, we isolated intraventricular hemorrhage, acute hydrocephalus, and angiographic vasospasm as independent, significant risk factors for shunt dependency. The meta-analysis, including the current data, revealed a significantly higher risk for shunt dependency after coiling than after clipping (P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Clipping of a ruptured aneurysm may be associated with a lower risk for developing shunt dependency, possibly by clot removal. This might influence long-term outcome and surgical decision making.

Sexual transmission of HIV according to viral load and antiretroviral therapy: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES: To synthesize the evidence on the risk of HIV transmission through unprotected sexual intercourse according to viral load and treatment with combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and conference abstracts from 1996-2009. We included longitudinal studies of serodiscordant couples reporting on HIV transmission according to plasma viral load or use of ART and used random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary transmission rates [with 95% confidence intervals, (CI)]. If there were no transmission events we estimated an upper 97.5% confidence limit. RESULTS: We identified 11 cohorts reporting on 5021 heterosexual couples and 461 HIV-transmission events. The rate of transmission overall from ART-treated patients was 0.46 (95% CI 0.19-1.09) per 100 person-years, based on five events. The transmission rate from a seropositive partner with viral load below 400 copies/ml on ART, based on two studies, was zero with an upper 97.5% confidence limit of 1.27 per 100 person-years, and 0.16 (95% CI 0.02-1.13) per 100 person-years if not on ART, based on five studies and one event. There were insufficient data to calculate rates according to the presence or absence of sexually transmitted infections, condom use, or vaginal or anal intercourse. CONCLUSION: Studies of heterosexual discordant couples observed no transmission in patients treated with ART and with viral load below 400 copies/ml, but data were compatible with one transmission per 79 person-years. Further studies are needed to better define the risk of HIV transmission from patients on ART.

Effect of initial treatment strategy on survival of patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Several treatment strategies are available for adults with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma, but studies assessing two alternative standards of care-increased dose bleomycin, etoposide, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (BEACOPPescalated), and doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD)-were not powered to test differences in overall survival. To guide treatment decisions in this population of patients, we did a systematic review and network meta-analysis to identify the best initial treatment strategy. METHODS We searched the Cochrane Library, Medline, and conference proceedings for randomised controlled trials published between January, 1980, and June, 2013, that assessed overall survival in patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma given BEACOPPbaseline, BEACOPPescalated, BEACOPP variants, ABVD, cyclophosphamide (mechlorethamine), vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (C[M]OPP), hybrid or alternating chemotherapy regimens with ABVD as the backbone (eg, COPP/ABVD, MOPP/ABVD), or doxorubicin, vinblastine, mechlorethamine, vincristine, bleomycin, etoposide, and prednisone combined with radiation therapy (the Stanford V regimen). We assessed studies for eligibility, extracted data, and assessed their quality. We then pooled the data and used a Bayesian random-effects model to combine direct comparisons with indirect evidence. We also reconstructed individual patient survival data from published Kaplan-Meier curves and did standard random-effects Poisson regression. Results are reported relative to ABVD. The primary outcome was overall survival. FINDINGS We screened 2055 records and identified 75 papers covering 14 eligible trials that assessed 11 different regimens in 9993 patients, providing 59 651 patient-years of follow-up. 1189 patients died, and the median follow-up was 5·9 years (IQR 4·9-6·7). Included studies were of high methodological quality, and between-trial heterogeneity was negligible (τ(2)=0·01). Overall survival was highest in patients who received six cycles of BEACOPPescalated (HR 0·38, 95% credibility interval [CrI] 0·20-0·75). Compared with a 5 year survival of 88% for ABVD, the survival benefit for six cycles of BEACOPPescalated is 7% (95% CrI 3-10)-ie, a 5 year survival of 95%. Reconstructed individual survival data showed that, at 5 years, BEACOPPescalated has a 10% (95% CI 3-15) advantage over ABVD in overall survival. INTERPRETATION Six cycles of BEACOPPescalated significantly improves overall survival compared with ABVD and other regimens, and thus we recommend this treatment strategy as standard of care for patients with access to the appropriate supportive care.

Active surveillance for rheumatic heart disease in endemic regions: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence among children and adolescents

BACKGROUND Rheumatic heart disease accounts for up to 250 000 premature deaths every year worldwide and can be regarded as a physical manifestation of poverty and social inequality. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in endemic countries as assessed by different screening modalities and as a function of age. METHODS We searched Medline, Embase, the Latin American and Caribbean System on Health Sciences Information, African Journals Online, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for population-based studies published between Jan 1, 1993, and June 30, 2014, that reported on prevalence of rheumatic heart disease among children and adolescents (≥5 years to <18 years). We assessed prevalence of clinically silent and clinically manifest rheumatic heart disease in random effects meta-analyses according to screening modality and geographical region. We assessed the association between social inequality and rheumatic heart disease with the Gini coefficient. We used Poisson regression to analyse the effect of age on prevalence of rheumatic heart disease and estimated the incidence of rheumatic heart disease from prevalence data. FINDINGS We included 37 populations in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of rheumatic heart disease detected by cardiac auscultation was 2·9 per 1000 people (95% CI 1·7-5·0) and by echocardiography it was 12·9 per 1000 people (8·9-18·6), with substantial heterogeneity between individual reports for both screening modalities (I(2)=99·0% and 94·9%, respectively). We noted an association between social inequality expressed by the Gini coefficient and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease (p=0·0002). The prevalence of clinically silent rheumatic heart disease (21·1 per 1000 people, 95% CI 14·1-31·4) was about seven to eight times higher than that of clinically manifest disease (2·7 per 1000 people, 1·6-4·4). Prevalence progressively increased with advancing age, from 4·7 per 1000 people (95% CI 0·0-11·2) at age 5 years to 21·0 per 1000 people (6·8-35·1) at 16 years. The estimated incidence was 1·6 per 1000 people (0·8-2·3) and remained constant across age categories (range 2·5, 95% CI 1·3-3·7 in 5-year-old children to 1·7, 0·0-5·1 in 15-year-old adolescents). We noted no sex-related differences in prevalence (p=0·829). INTERPRETATION We found a high prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in endemic countries. Although a reduction in social inequalities represents the cornerstone of community-based prevention, the importance of early detection of silent rheumatic heart disease remains to be further assessed. FUNDING UBS Optimus Foundation.

Anticoagulant vs. antiplatelet therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

AIMS The preferred antithrombotic strategy for secondary prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO) is unknown. We pooled multiple observational studies and used propensity score-based methods to estimate the comparative effectiveness of oral anticoagulation (OAC) compared with antiplatelet therapy (APT). METHODS AND RESULTS Individual participant data from 12 databases of medically treated patients with CS and PFO were analysed with Cox regression models, to estimate database-specific hazard ratios (HRs) comparing OAC with APT, for both the primary composite outcome [recurrent stroke, transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or death] and stroke alone. Propensity scores were applied via inverse probability of treatment weighting to control for confounding. We synthesized database-specific HRs using random-effects meta-analysis models. This analysis included 2385 (OAC = 804 and APT = 1581) patients with 227 composite endpoints (stroke/TIA/death). The difference between OAC and APT was not statistically significant for the primary composite outcome [adjusted HR = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-1.12] or for the secondary outcome of stroke alone (adjusted HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.44-1.27). Results were consistent in analyses applying alternative weighting schemes, with the exception that OAC had a statistically significant beneficial effect on the composite outcome in analyses standardized to the patient population who actually received APT (adjusted HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.99). Subgroup analyses did not detect statistically significant heterogeneity of treatment effects across clinically important patient groups. CONCLUSION We did not find a statistically significant difference comparing OAC with APT; our results justify randomized trials comparing different antithrombotic approaches in these patients.