Prediction of water–rock interaction and porosity evolution in a granitoid-hosted enhanced geothermal system, using constraints from the 5 km Basel-1 well

Numerical simulations based on plans for a deep geothermal system in Basel, Switzerland are used here to understand chemical processes that occur in an initially dry granitoid reservoir during hydraulic stimulation and long-term water circulation to extract heat. An important question regarding the sustainability of such enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), is whether water–rock reactions will eventually lead to clogging of flow paths in the reservoir and thereby reduce or even completely block fluid throughput. A reactive transport model allows the main chemical reactions to be predicted and the resulting evolution of porosity to be tracked over the expected 30-year operational lifetime of the system. The simulations show that injection of surface water to stimulate fracture permeability in the monzogranite reservoir at 190 °C and 5000 m depth induces redox reactions between the oxidised surface water and the reduced wall rock. Although new calcite, chlorite, hematite and other minerals precipitate near the injection well, their volumes are low and more than compensated by those of the dissolving wall-rock minerals. Thus, during stimulation, reduction of injectivity by mineral precipitation is unlikely. During the simulated long-term operation of the system, the main mineral reactions are the hydration and albitization of plagioclase, the alteration of hornblende to an assemblage of smectites and chlorites and of primary K-feldspar to muscovite and microcline. Within a closed-system doublet, the composition of the circulated fluid changes only slightly during its repeated passage through the reservoir, as the wall rock essentially undergoes isochemical recrystallization. Even after 30 years of circulation, the calculations show that porosity is reduced by only ∼0.2%, well below the expected fracture porosity induced by stimulation. This result suggests that permeability reduction owing to water–rock interaction is unlikely to jeopardize the long-term operation of deep, granitoid-hosted EGS systems. A peculiarity at Basel is the presence of anhydrite as fracture coatings at ∼5000 m depth. Simulated exposure of the circulating fluid to anhydrite induces a stronger redox disequilibrium in the reservoir, driving dissolution of ferrous minerals and precipitation of ferric smectites, hematite and pyrite. However, even in this scenario the porosity reduction is at most 0.5%, a value which is unproblematic for sustainable fluid circulation through the reservoir.

An Early-Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events Based on Fusion of Adaptive Prediction Models

Introduction: Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia / hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy. Methods: The EWS is based on the combination of data-driven online adaptive prediction models and a warning algorithm. Three modeling approaches have been investigated: (i) autoregressive (ARX) models, (ii) auto-regressive with an output correction module (cARX) models, and (iii) recurrent neural network (RNN) models. The warning algorithm performs postprocessing of the models′ outputs and issues alerts if upcoming hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events are detected. Fusion of the cARX and RNN models, due to their complementary prediction performances, resulted in the hybrid autoregressive with an output correction module/recurrent neural network (cARN)-based EWS. Results: The EWS was evaluated on 23 T1DM patients under SAP therapy. The ARX-based system achieved hypoglycemic (hyperglycemic) event prediction with median values of accuracy of 100.0% (100.0%), detection time of 10.0 (8.0) min, and daily false alarms of 0.7 (0.5). The respective values for the cARX-based system were 100.0% (100.0%), 17.5 (14.8) min, and 1.5 (1.3) and, for the RNN-based system, were 100.0% (92.0%), 8.4 (7.0) min, and 0.1 (0.2). The hybrid cARN-based EWS presented outperforming results with 100.0% (100.0%) prediction accuracy, detection 16.7 (14.7) min in advance, and 0.8 (0.8) daily false alarms. Conclusion: Combined use of cARX and RNN models for the development of an EWS outperformed the single use of each model, achieving accurate and prompt event prediction with few false alarms, thus providing increased safety and comfort.

Towards a treaty instrument on marine genetic resources

Marine genetic resources other than fish and mammals are of increasing commercial interest and importance in genetic engineering, but fail being properly addressed in the law of the sea and in international economic law. The paper analyses the implication of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Convention on Biodiversity, the WTO Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights and related instruments under the auspices of WIPO. The paper argues that the triangle of these agreements does not adequately address marine genetic resources in particular in the high seas. Neither concerns of protecting biodiversity nor of access and benefit sharing find appropriate answers commensurate to the commercial potential of marine genetic resources. The paper suggests developing an instrument inspired by, and comparable to, the mechanisms developed by the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture. The instrument would grant facilitated access to marine genetic resources and offer a more detailed set of rules with respect to the sharing of benefits resulting from their use, thereby addressing the existing legal gaps in a comprehensive way.

Mobility and bandwidth prediction in virtualized LTE systems: Architecture and challenges

Long Term Evolution (LTE) represents the fourth generation (4G) technology which is capable of providing high data rates as well as support of high speed mobility. The EU FP7 Mobile Cloud Networking (MCN) project integrates the use of cloud computing concepts in LTE mobile networks in order to increase LTE's performance. In this way a shared distributed virtualized LTE mobile network is built that can optimize the utilization of virtualized computing, storage and network resources and minimize communication delays. Two important features that can be used in such a virtualized system to improve its performance are the user mobility and bandwidth prediction. This paper introduces the architecture and challenges that are associated with user mobility and bandwidth prediction approaches in virtualized LTE systems.

A novel clinical scoring system for outcome prediction in dogs with acute kidney injury managed by hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND No reliable tool to predict outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) exists. HYPOTHESIS A statistically derived scoring system can accurately predict outcome in dogs with AKI managed with hemodialysis. ANIMALS One hundred and eighty-two client-owned dogs with AKI. METHODS Logistic regression analyses were performed initially on clinical variables available on the 1st day of hospitalization for relevance to outcome. Variables with P< or = .1 were considered for further analyses. Continuous variables outside the reference range were divided into quartiles to yield quartile-specific odds ratios (ORs) for survival. Models were developed by incorporating weighting factors assigned to each quartile based on the OR, using either the integer value of the OR (Model A) or the exact OR (Models B or C, when the etiology was known). A predictive score for each model was calculated for each dog by summing all weighting factors. In Model D, actual values for continuous variables were used in a logistic regression model. Receiver-operating curve analyses were performed to assess sensitivities, specificities, and optimal cutoff points for all models. RESULTS Higher scores were associated with decreased probability of survival (P < .001). Models A, B, C, and D correctly classified outcomes in 81, 83, 87, and 76% of cases, respectively, and optimal sensitivities/specificities were 77/85, 81/85, 83/90 and 92/61%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The models allowed outcome prediction that corresponded with actual outcome in our cohort. However, each model should be validated further in independent cohorts. The models may also be useful to assess AKI severity.

RADIX: a minimal-resources rapid-access drilling system

Determining the expected age at a potential ice-core drilling site on a polar ice sheet generally depends on a combination of information from remote-sensing methods, estimates of current accumulation and modelling. This poses irreducible uncertainties in retrieving an undisturbed ice core of the desired age. Although recently perfected radar techniques will improve the picture of the ice sheet below future drilling sites, rapid prospective drillings could further increase the success of deep drilling projects. Here we design and explore a drilling system for a minimum-size rapid-access hole. The advantages of a small hole are the low demand for drilling fluid, low overall weight of the equipment, fast installing and de-installing and low costs. We show that, in theory, drilling of a 20mm hole to a depth of 3000m is possible in ~4 days. First concepts have been realized and verified in the field. Both the drill cuttings and the hole itself can be used to characterize the properties of the ice sheet and its potential to provide a trustworthy palaeo-record. A candidate drilling site could be explored in ~2 weeks, which would enable the characterization of several sites in one summer season.

THEODORE, a two-step heating system for the EC/OC determination of radiocarbon (14C) in the environment

Measurements of 14C in the organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) fractions, respectively, of fine aerosol particles bear the potential to apportion anthropogenic and biogenic emission sources. For this purpose, the system THEODORE (two-step heating system for the EC/OC determination of radiocarbon in the environment) was developed. In this device, OC and EC are transformed into carbon dioxide in a stream of oxygen at 340 and 650 �C, respectively, and reduced to filamentous carbon. This is the target material for subsequent accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C measurements, which were performed on sub-milligram carbon samples at the PSI/ETH compact 500 kV AMS system. Quality assurance measurements of SRM 1649a, Urban Dust, yielded a fraction of modern fM in total carbon (TC) of 0.522 ±0.018 (n ¼ 5, 95% confidence level) in agreement with reported values. The results for OC and EC are 0.70± 0.05 (n ¼ 3) and 0.066 ± 0.020 (n ¼ 4), respectively.

Energy Export Restrictions in the WTO Between Resources Nationalism and Sustainable Development

This chapter aims at contributing to the trade and energy debate by focusing on the specific issue of export restrictions. It starts from the premise that a balanced and efficient regulation of export barriers in the energy sector would contribute to tackle emerging energy concerns such as energy security and the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies in light of the challenge of climate change mitigation. It assesses the adequacy of existing WTO rules on export restric­tions and accordingly identifies the main gaps and inconsistencies inherent in the current disciplines from an energy-specific perspective. Finally, it discusses the merits of an energy-specific approach to advance existing disciplines in the most deficient area of export duties based on the systematisation of the Russian ‘model’. Such approach could raise the overall level of commitments in the energy sector while still allowing for the systemic applicability of GATT environmental exceptions in a manner consistent with the principle of sus­tainable development recognised in the Preamble of the WTO Agreement.