East Asian ethnolinguistic phylogeography

A polyphyletic understanding of Asian linguistic diversity was first propagated in 1823. Since 1901, various scholars have proposed larger linguistic phyla uniting two or more recognised Asian language families. The most recent proposal in this tradition, Starosta’s 2001 East Asian phylum, comprising the Trans-Himalayan, Hmong-Mien, Austroasiatic, Austronesian and Kradai language families, is reassessed in light of linguistic and non-linguistic evidence. Ethnolinguistically informed inferences based on Asian Y chromosomal phylogeography lead to a reconstruction of various episodes of ethnolinguistic prehistory which lie beyond the linguistic event horizon, i.e. at a time depth empirically inaccessible to historical linguistics. The Father Tongue correlation in population genetics, the evidence for refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum and the hypothesis of language families having arisen as the result of demographic bottlenecks in prehistory are shown to be crucial to an understanding of the ethnogenesis of East Asian linguistic phyla. The prehistory of several neighbouring Asian language families is discussed, and the Centripetal Migration model is opposed to the Farming Language Dispersal theory.

A prehistoric thoroughfare between the Ganges and the Himalayas

The greater Himalayan region, including the Tibetan plateau in the north and the Gangetic plain in the south, served as the principal prehistoric thoroughfare for the peopling of East and Southeast Asia. The descendants of ancient migrants through this region ultimately settled lands as far away as New Zealand, Madagascar and the Americas. Several of the keys to understanding the ethnogenesis of human diversity in Asia include the Father Tongue correlation, possible refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum and the hypothesis that language families may have arisen as the result of demographic bottlenecks in prehistory. Ethnolinguistically informed inferences based on Asian Y chromosomal phylogeography permit a reconstruction of episodes of ethnolinguistic prehistory which lie beyond the linguistic event horizon, i.e. beyond the time depth empirically accessible to historical linguistics. The origins of the language families which make up the hypothetical Uralo-Siberian and East Asian linguistic phyla are argued to have lain in the northeastern corner of the Indian subcontinent. Several other Asian language families are shown to be tied to the subcontinent. The Centripetal Migration model, which assumes that migrations in quest of a better life unfolded in both centrifugal and centripetal directions with respect to technologically more advanced centres of civilisation, is opposed to the Farming Language Dispersal theory, which assumes that all linguistic dispersals were driven by agricultural centrifugal migration.

Propositional and situational representations of text

Two informationally equivalent texts were constructed which described a fictitious town, emphasizing its spatial layout. In one version (Survey text), spatial information was in geographic terms, while in the other version (Route text), the equivalent information was provided in the form of directions for driving through the town. Subjects recalled these texts and verified old as well as inference statements. In Experiment I, subjects were able to recall the texts quite well, while showing little ability to use the information they had acquired to make inferences about spatial relations in the town which had not been directly stated in the text. With simpler texts, subjects in Experiment II were able to make infereces, especially when the form of the question corresponded to the version of the text they had read. It was concluded that free recall depended on the construction of a propositional textbase during comprehension, while inferences required a situation model, either in the form of a mental map or a procedural representation of the town. It could be shown that the form of the situation model depended on both the representation invited by the text and subject biases.

Die mentale Repräsentation von verbalen Ortsbeschreibungen

Studied the mental representation of verbally described spatial layouts. Human subjects: 36 normal Swiss adolescents and adults. Two informationally equivalent texts describing the same fictitious town were constructed and presented to different groups. Spatial information was given in geographic terms in the survey text and in the form of directions for driving through the town in the route text. After learning the texts Ss had to verify the route (forward vs backward) and survey inferences.

Palynological richness and evenness: insights from the taxa accumulation curve

Palynology provides the opportunity to make inferences on changes in diversity of terrestrial vegetation over long time scales. The often coarse taxonomic level achievable in pollen analysis, differences in pollen production and dispersal, and the lack of pollen source boundaries hamper the application of diversity indices to palynology. Palynological richness, the number of pollen types at a constant pollen count, is the most robust and widely used diversity indicator for pollen data. However, this index is also influenced by the abundance distribution of pollen types in sediments. In particular, where the index is calculated by rarefaction analysis, information on taxonomic richness at low abundance may be lost. Here we explore information that can be extracted from the accumulation of taxa over consecutive samples. The log-transformed taxa accumulation curve can be broken up into linear sections with different slope and intersect parameters, describing the accumulation of new taxa within the section. The breaking points may indicate changes in the species pool or in the abundance of high versus low pollen producers. Testing this concept on three pollen diagrams from different landscapes, we find that the break points in the taxa accumulation curves provide convenient zones for identifying changes in richness and evenness. The linear regressions over consecutive samples can be used to inter- and extrapolate to low or extremely high pollen counts, indicating evenness and richness in taxonomic composition within these zones. An evenness indicator, based on the rank-order-abundance is used to assist in the evaluation of the results and the interpretation of the fossil records. Two central European pollen diagrams show major changes in the taxa accumulation curves for the Lateglacial period and the time of human induced land-use changes, while they do not indicate strong changes in the species pool with the onset of the Holocene. In contrast, a central Swedish pollen diagram shows comparatively little change, but high richness during the early Holocene forest establishment. Evenness and palynological richness are related for most periods in the three diagrams, however, sections before forest establishment and after forest clearance show high evenness, which is not necessarily accompanied by high palynological richness, encouraging efforts to separate the two.

A framework for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale

The International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) is striving towards substantively improving our ability to robustly understand historical land surface air temperature change at all scales. A key recently completed first step has been collating all available records into a comprehensive open access, traceable and version-controlled databank. The crucial next step is to maximise the value of the collated data through a robust international framework of benchmarking and assessment for product intercomparison and uncertainty estimation. We focus on uncertainties arising from the presence of inhomogeneities in monthly mean land surface temperature data and the varied methodological choices made by various groups in building homogeneous temperature products. The central facet of the benchmarking process is the creation of global-scale synthetic analogues to the real-world database where both the "true" series and inhomogeneities are known (a luxury the real-world data do not afford us). Hence, algorithmic strengths and weaknesses can be meaningfully quantified and conditional inferences made about the real-world climate system. Here we discuss the necessary framework for developing an international homogenisation benchmarking system on the global scale for monthly mean temperatures. The value of this framework is critically dependent upon the number of groups taking part and so we strongly advocate involvement in the benchmarking exercise from as many data analyst groups as possible to make the best use of this substantial effort.

THE EFFECTS OF IRRADIATION ON HOT JOVIAN ATMOSPHERES: HEAT REDISTRIBUTION AND ENERGY DISSIPATION

Hot Jupiters, due to the proximity to their parent stars, are subjected to a strong irradiating flux that governs their radiative and dynamical properties. We compute a suite of three-dimensional circulation models with dual-band radiative transfer, exploring a relevant range of irradiation temperatures, both with and without temperature inversions. We find that, for irradiation temperatures T irr lsim 2000 K, heat redistribution is very efficient, producing comparable dayside and nightside fluxes. For T irr ≈ 2200-2400 K, the redistribution starts to break down, resulting in a high day-night flux contrast. Our simulations indicate that the efficiency of redistribution is primarily governed by the ratio of advective to radiative timescales. Models with temperature inversions display a higher day-night contrast due to the deposition of starlight at higher altitudes, but we find this opacity-driven effect to be secondary compared to the effects of irradiation. The hotspot offset from the substellar point is large when insolation is weak and redistribution is efficient, and decreases as redistribution breaks down. The atmospheric flow can be potentially subjected to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (as indicated by the Richardson number) only in the uppermost layers, with a depth that penetrates down to pressures of a few millibars at most. Shocks penetrate deeper, down to several bars in the hottest model. Ohmic dissipation generally occurs down to deeper levels than shock dissipation (to tens of bars), but the penetration depth varies with the atmospheric opacity. The total dissipated Ohmic power increases steeply with the strength of the irradiating flux and the dissipation depth recedes into the atmosphere, favoring radius inflation in the most irradiated objects. A survey of the existing data, as well as the inferences made from them, reveals that our results are broadly consistent with the observational trends.

Federalism and the Concept of Political Territoriality: Towards an Analytical Framework for Comparative Territorial Politics

The core issues comparative territorial politics addresses are how and why territory is used to delimit, maintain, or create political power; and with what kind of consequences for efficiency (output) and legitimacy (input). The aim of this article is to integrate various research strands into the comparative study of territorial politics, with federal studies at its core. As an example of a conceptual payoff, ‘political territoriality’ refers the observer to three dimensions of the strategic use of areal boundaries for political power. By focusing on territory as a key variable of political systems, the actors, processes and institutions are first analytically separated and continuously measured, enhancing internal validity, and then theoretically integrated, which allows more valid external inferences than classic, legal-institutionalist federal studies. After discussing the boundaries and substance of comparative territorial politics as a federal discipline, political territoriality is developed towards an analytical framework applicable to politics at any governmental level. The claims are modest: political territoriality does not serve so much as an explanatory concept as rather an ‘attention-directing device’ for federal studies.

Associative processing and paranormal belief

In the present study we introduce a novel task for the quantitative assessment of both originality and speed of individual associations. This 'BAG' (Bridge-the-Associative-Gap) task was used to investigate the relationships between creativity and paranormal belief. Twelve strong 'believers' and 12 strong 'skeptics' in paranormal phenomena were selected from a large student population (n > 350). Subjects were asked to produce single-word associations to word pairs. In 40 trials the two stimulus words were semantically indirectly related and in 40 other trials the words were semantically unrelated. Separately for these two stimulus types, response commonalities and association latencies were calculated. The main finding was that for unrelated stimuli, believers produced associations that were more original (had a lower frequency of occurrence in the group as a whole) than those of the skeptics. For the interpretation of the result we propose a model of association behavior that captures both 'positive' psychological aspects (i.e., verbal creativity) and 'negative' aspects (susceptibility to unfounded inferences), and outline its relevance for psychiatry. This model suggests that believers adopt a looser response criterion than skeptics when confronted with 'semantic noise'. Such a signal detection view of the presence/absence of judgments for loose semantic relations may help to elucidate the commonalities between creative thinking, paranormal belief and delusional ideation.

Logical omniscience as infeasibility

Logical theories for representing knowledge are often plagued by the so-called Logical Omniscience Problem. The problem stems from the clash between the desire to model rational agents, which should be capable of simple logical inferences, and the fact that any logical inference, however complex, almost inevitably consists of inference steps that are simple enough. This contradiction points to the fruitlessness of trying to solve the Logical Omniscience Problem qualitatively if the rationality of agents is to be maintained. We provide a quantitative solution to the problem compatible with the two important facets of the reasoning agent: rationality and resource boundedness. More precisely, we provide a test for the logical omniscience problem in a given formal theory of knowledge. The quantitative measures we use are inspired by the complexity theory. We illustrate our framework with a number of examples ranging from the traditional implicit representation of knowledge in modal logic to the language of justification logic, which is capable of spelling out the internal inference process. We use these examples to divide representations of knowledge into logically omniscient and not logically omniscient, thus trying to determine how much information about the reasoning process needs to be present in a theory to avoid logical omniscience.

How need for cognition affects the processing of achievement-related information

The present article analyzed, how need for cognition (NFC) influences the formation of performance expectancies. When processing information, individuals with lower NFC often rely on salient information and shortcuts compared to individuals higher in NFC. We assume that these preferences of processing will also make individuals low in NFC more responsive to salient achievement-related cues because the processing of salient cues is cognitively less demanding than the processing of non-salient cues. Therefore, individuals lower in NFC should tend to draw wider ranging inferences from salient achievement-related information. In a sample of N = 197 secondary school students, achievement-related feedback (grade on an English examination) affected changes in expectancies in non-corresponding academic subjects (e.g., expectation of final grade in mathematics or history) when NFC was lower, whereas for students with higher NFC, changes in expectancies in non-corresponding academic subjects were not affected.

Symptom-based subtypes of depression and their psychosocial correlates: A person-centered approach focusing on the influence of sex

BACKGROUND: Reducing the complexity of major depressive disorder by symptom-based subtypes constitutes the basis of more specific treatments. To date, few studies have empirically derived symptom subtypes separated by sex, although the impact of sex has been widely accepted in depression research. METHODS: The community-based sample included 373 males and 443 females from the Zurich Program for Sustainable Development of Mental Health Services (ZInEP) manifesting depressive symptoms in the past 12 months. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was performed separately by sex to extract sex-related depression subtypes. The subtypes were characterized by psychosocial characteristics. RESULTS: Three similar subtypes were found in both sexes: a severe typical subtype (males: 22.8%; females: 35.7%), a severe atypical subtype (males: 17.4%; females: 22.6%), and a moderate subtype (males: 25.2%; females: 41.8%). In males, two additional subgroups were identified: a severe irritable/angry-rejection sensitive (IARS) subtype (30%) comprising the largest group, and a small psychomotor retarded subtype (4%). Males belonging to the severe typical subtype exhibited the lowest masculine gender role orientation, while females of the typical subtype showed more anxiety disorders. The severe atypical subtype was associated with eating disorders in both sexes and with alcohol/drug abuse/dependence in females. In contrast, alcohol/drug abuse/dependence was associated with the severe IARS subtype in males. LIMITATIONS:The study had a cross-sectional design, allowing for no causal inferences. CONCLUSIONS:This study contributes to a better understanding of sex-related depression subtypes, which can be well distinguished on the basis of symptom profiles. This provides the base for future research investigating the etiopathogenesis and effective treatment of the heterogeneous depression disorder.

The ancestry of Tibetan

The Tibeto-Burman linguistic phylum was identified in 1823. However, the term “Tibeto-Burman” was later used with two different mean- ings, one by scholars following Klaproth’s polyphyletic framework and another by scholars operating within the Indo-Chinese paradigm. Yet the enduring failure of Sino-Tibetanists to produce any evidence for the Indo-Chinese phylogenetic model compels us to conclude that there is no such language family as Sino-Tibetan. Instead, Tibetan forms part of the Trans-Himalayan linguistic phylum, or Tibeto-Burman in Klaproth’s sense. Robert Shafer coined the terms “Bodic” and “Bodish” for subgroups including Tibetan and languages with varying degrees of linguistic propin- quity to Tibetan, and Nicolas Tournadre has also recently coined the term “Tibetic.” What are Tibetic, Bodish, and Bodic? Which languages are the closest relatives of Tibetan? What do we know about the structure of the Trans-Himalayan linguistic phylum as a whole? Based on the phylogeny of the language family, which inferences can be made about the ethnolinguis- tic prehistory of the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding regions?

Great expectations: what can fMRI research tell us about psychological phenomena?

Expectations for what functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can offer psychophysiology vary greatly. Overreaching enthusiasm such as the idea that fMRI can reveal lies and political attitudes are as common as the opinion that fMRI, in its current form, is useless for the advancement of psychological theories. Errors in the inferences being drawn from fMRI data may be contributing to each of these extreme positions, so the present paper addresses these several common inferential errors and describes some of the potential of fMRI for psychophysiological theory and research.

Effect of low count sums on quantitative environmental reconstructions: an example using subfossil chironomids

The concentrations of chironomid remains in lake sediments are very variable and, therefore, chironomid stratigraphies often include samples with a low number of counts. Thus, the effect of low count sums on reconstructed temperatures is an important issue when applying chironomid‐temperature inference models. Using an existing data set, we simulated low count sums by randomly picking subsets of head capsules from surface‐sediment samples with a high number of specimens. Subsequently, a chironomid‐temperature inference model was used to assess how the inferred temperatures are affected by low counts. The simulations indicate that the variability of inferred temperatures increases progressively with decreasing count sums. At counts below 50 specimens, a further reduction in count sum can cause a disproportionate increase in the variation of inferred temperatures, whereas at higher count sums the inferences are more stable. Furthermore, low count samples may consistently infer too low or too high temperatures and, therefore, produce a systematic error in a reconstruction. Smoothing reconstructed temperatures downcore is proposed as a possible way to compensate for the high variability due to low count sums. By combining adjacent samples in a stratigraphy, to produce samples of a more reliable size, it is possible to assess if low counts cause a systematic error in inferred temperatures.