A Bootstrap Test for the Probability of Ruin in the Compound Poisson Risk Process

In this article we propose a bootstrap test for the probability of ruin in the compound Poisson risk process. We adopt the P-value approach, which leads to a more complete assessment of the underlying risk than the probability of ruin alone. We provide second-order accurate P-values for this testing problem and consider both parametric and nonparametric estimators of the individual claim amount distribution. Simulation studies show that the suggested bootstrap P-values are very accurate and outperform their analogues based on the asymptotic normal approximation.

The strategies of the Theileria parasite: a new twist in host-pathogen interactions

Theileria parasites infect and transform cells of the ruminant immune system. Continuous proliferation and survival of Theileria-transformed cells involves the well-orchestrated activation of several host-cell signalling pathways. Constitutive NF-kappa B (nuclear factor kappa B) activation is accomplished by recruiting the IKK (I kappa B kinase) complex, a central regulator of NF-kappa B pathways, to the surface of the transforming schizont, where it becomes permanently activated. Constitutive activation of the PI-3K-PKB [phosphoinositide 3-kinase-(Akt) protein kinase B] pathway is likely to be indirect and is essential for continuous proliferation. Theileria-transformed T cells express a range of anti-apoptotic proteins that can be expected to provide protection against apoptosis induced by death receptors, as well as cellular control mechanisms that are mobilised to eliminate cells that entered a cycle of uncontrolled proliferation.

Cellular mechanisms of burst firing-mediated long-term depression in rat neocortical pyramidal cells

During wakefulness and sleep, neurons in the neocortex emit action potentials tonically or in rhythmic bursts, respectively. However, the role of synchronized discharge patterns is largely unknown. We have recently shown that pairings of excitatory postsynaptic potentials (EPSPs) and action potential bursts or single spikes lead to long-term depression (burst-LTD) or long-term potentiation, respectively. In this study, we elucidate the cellular mechanisms of burst-LTD and characterize its functional properties. Whole-cell patch-clamp recordings were obtained from layer V pyramidal cells in somatosensory cortex of juvenile rats in vitro and composite EPSPs and EPSCs were evoked extracellularly in layers II/III. Repetitive burst-pairings led to a long-lasting depression of EPSPs and EPSCs that was blocked by inhibitors of metabotropic glutamate group 1 receptors, phospholipase C, protein kinase C (PKC) and calcium release from the endoplasmic reticulum, and that required an intact machinery for endocytosis. Thus, burst-LTD is induced via a Ca2+- and phosphatidylinositol-dependent activation of PKC and expressed through phosphorylation-triggered endocytosis of AMPA receptors. Functionally, burst-LTD is inversely related to EPSP size and bursts dominate single spikes in determining the sign of synaptic plasticity. Thus burst-firing constitutes a signal by which coincident synaptic inputs are proportionally downsized. Overall, our data thus suggest a mechanism by which synaptic weights can be reconfigured during non-rapid eye movement sleep.

The role of epistasis in the manifestation of heterosis: a systems-oriented approach

Heterosis is widely used in breeding, but the genetic basis of this biological phenomenon has not been elucidated. We postulate that additive and dominance genetic effects as well as two-locus interactions estimated in classical QTL analyses are not sufficient for quantifying the contributions of QTL to heterosis. A general theoretical framework for determining the contributions of different types of genetic effects to heterosis was developed. Additive x additive epistatic interactions of individual loci with the entire genetic background were identified as a major component of midparent heterosis. On the basis of these findings we defined a new type of heterotic effect denoted as augmented dominance effect di* that comprises the dominance effect at each QTL minus half the sum of additive x additive interactions with all other QTL. We demonstrate that genotypic expectations of QTL effects obtained from analyses with the design III using testcrosses of recombinant inbred lines and composite-interval mapping precisely equal genotypic expectations of midparent heterosis, thus identifying genomic regions relevant for expression of heterosis. The theory for QTL mapping of multiple traits is extended to the simultaneous mapping of newly defined genetic effects to improve the power of QTL detection and distinguish between dominance and overdominance.

Regulation of human growth hormone receptor gene transcription by triiodothyronine (T3)

In this study the hypothesis that triiodothyronine (T3) and growth hormone (GH) may have some direct or indirect effect on the regulation of GH-receptor/GH-binding protein (GHR/GHBP) gene transcription was tested. Different concentrations of T3 (0, 0.5, 2, 10 nmol/l) and GH (0, 10, 150 ng/ml) were added to human hepatoma (HuH7) cells cultured in serum-free hormonally-defined medium for 0, 1 and 2 h. Thereafter GHR/GHBP mRNA expression was quantitatively assessed by using PCR amplification. GH at a concentration of 10 ng/ml resulted in a significant increase of GHR/GHBP gene expression whereas a supraphysiological concentration of GH (150 ng/ml) caused a significant decrease of GHR/GHBP mRNA levels. The simultaneous addition of 0.5 nmol/l T3 to the variable concentrations of GH did not modify GHR/GHBP mRNA levels whereas the addition of 2 nmol/l up-regulated GHR/GHBP gene expression already after 1 h, an increase which was even more marked when 10 nmol/l of T3 was added. Interestingly, there was a positive correlation between the increase of GHR/GHBP mRNA levels and the T3 concentration used (r: 0.8). In addition, nuclear run-on experiments and GHBP determinations were performed which confirmed the changes in GHR/GHBP mRNA levels. Cycloheximide (10 microg/ml) did not alter transcription rate following GH addition but blocked GHR/GHBP gene transcription in T3 treated cells indicating that up-regulation of GHR/GHBP gene transcription caused by T3 requires new protein synthesis and is, therefore, dependent on indirect mechanisms. In conclusion, we present data showing that T3 on its own has a stimulatory effect on GHR/GHBP gene transcription which is indirect and additive to the GH-induced changes.

What are the metacognitive costs of young children's overconfidence?

Children typically hold very optimistic views of their own skills but so far, only a few studies have investigated possible correlates of the ability to predict performance accurately. Therefore, this study examined the role of individual differences in performance estimation accuracy as a global metacognitive index for different monitoring and control skills (item-level judgments of learning [JOLs] and confidence judgments [CJs]), metacognitive control processes (allocation of study time and control of answers), and executive functions (cognitive flexibility, inhibition, working memory) in 6-year-olds (N=93). The three groups of under estimators, realists and over estimators differed significantly in their monitoring and control abilities: the under estimators outperformed the over estimators by showing a higher discrimination in CJs between correct and incorrect recognition. Also, the under estimators scored higher on the adequate control of incorrectly recognized items. Regarding the interplay of monitoring and control processes, under estimators spent more time studying items with low JOLs, and relied more systematically on their monitoring when controlling their recognition compared to over estimators. At the same time, the three groups did not differ significantly from each other in their executive functions. Overall, results indicate that differences in performance estimation accuracy are systematically related to other global and item-level metacognitive monitoring and control abilities in children as young as six years of age, while no meaningful association between performance estimation accuracy and executive functions was found.

Consistent estimation of the fixed effects ordered logit model

The paper considers panel data methods for estimating ordered logit models with individual-specific correlated unobserved heterogeneity. We show that a popular approach is inconsistent, whereas some consistent and efficient estimators are available, including minimum distance and generalized method-of-moment estimators. A Monte Carlo study reveals the good properties of an alternative estimator that has not been considered in econometric applications before, is simple to implement and almost as efficient. An illustrative application based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel confirms the large negative effect of unemployment on life satisfaction that has been found in the previous literature.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Clinical results with two different methods of root-end preparation and filling in apical surgery: mineral trioxide aggregate and adhesive resin composite

INTRODUCTION: The aim of apical surgery is to hermetically seal the root canal system after root-end resection, thereby enabling periradicular healing. The objective of this nonrandomized prospective clinical study was to report results of 2 different root-end preparation and filling methods, ie, mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA) and an adhesive resin composite (Retroplast). METHODS: The study included 353 consecutive cases with endodontic lesions limited to the periapical area. Root-end cavities were prepared with sonic microtips and filled with MTA (n = 178), or alternatively, a shallow concavity was prepared in the cut root face, with subsequent placement of an adhesive resin composite (Retroplast) (n = 175). Patients were recalled after 1 year. Cases were defined as healed when no clinical signs or symptoms were present and radiographs demonstrated complete or incomplete (scar tissue) healing of previous radiolucencies. RESULTS: The overall rate of healed cases was 85.5%. MTA-treated teeth demonstrated a significantly (P = .003) higher rate of healed cases (91.3%) compared with Retroplast-treated teeth (79.5%). Within the MTA group, 89.5%-100% of cases were classified as healed, depending on the type of treated tooth. In contrast, more variable rates ranging from 66.7%-100% were found in the Retroplast group. In particular, mandibular premolars and molars demonstrated considerably lower rates of healed cases when treated with Retroplast. CONCLUSIONS: MTA can be recommended for root-end filling in apical surgery, irrespective of the type of treated tooth. Retroplast should be used with caution for root-end sealing in apical surgery of mandibular premolars and molars.

Inhibition of direct and indirect TLR-mediated activation of human NK cells by low molecular weight dextran sulfate

NK cells express toll-like receptors (TLR) that recognize conserved pathogen or damage associated molecular patterns and play a fundamental role in innate immunity. Low molecular weight dextran sulfate (DXS), known to inhibit the complement system, has recently been reported by us to inhibit TLR4-induced maturation of human monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MoDC). In this study, we investigated the capability of DXS to interfere with human NK cell activation triggered directly by TLR2 agonists or indirectly by supernatants of TLR4-activated MoDC. Both TLR2 agonists and supernatants of TLR4-activated MoDC activated NK cells phenotypically, as demonstrated by the analysis of NK cell activation markers (CD56, CD25, CD69, NKp30, NKp44, NKp46, DNAM-1 and NKG2D), and functionally as shown by increased NK cell degranulation (CD107a surface expression) and IFN-gamma secretion. DXS prevented the up-regulation of NK cell activation markers triggered by TLR2 ligands or supernatants of TLR4-activated MoDC and dose-dependently abrogated NK cell degranulation and IFN-gamma secretion. In summary our results suggest that DXS may be a useful reagent to inhibit the direct and indirect TLR-mediated activation of NK cells.

Heart valve sound of various mechanical composite grafts, and the impact on patients' quality of life

The closing sounds of mechanical heart valves can be disturbing for patients and their closest relatives. Although some investigations into mechanical heart valve sounds have been performed, the particularities of the valve sound when it is attached to a vascular prosthesis to replace the aortic root and the ascending aorta has not been studied to date. The study aim was to compare the closing sounds of three various mechanical composite graft prostheses, and to analyze the impact of such sounds on the patients' quality of life.

Operator variability using different polishing methods and surface geometry of a nanohybrid composite

This study evaluated the operator variability of different finishing and polishing techniques. After placing 120 composite restorations (Tetric EvoCeram) in plexiglassmolds, the surface of the specimens was roughened in a standardized manner. Twelve operators with different experience levels polished the specimens using the following finishing/polishing procedures: method 1 (40 ?m diamond [40D], 15 ?m diamond [15D], 42 ?m silicon carbide polisher [42S], 6 ?m silicon carbide polisher [6S] and Occlubrush [O]); method 2 (40D, 42S, 6S and O); method 3 (40D, 42S, 6S and PoGo); method 4 (40D, 42S and PoGo) and method 5 (40D, 42S and O). The mean surface roughness (Ra) was measured with a profilometer. Differences between the methods were analyzed with non-parametric ANOVA and pairwise Wilcoxon signed rank tests (?=0.05). All the restorations were qualitatively assessed using SEM. Methods 3 and 4 showed the best polishing results and method 5 demonstrated the poorest. Method 5 was also most dependent on the skills of the operator. Except for method 5, all of the tested procedures reached a clinically acceptable surface polish of Ra?0.2 ?m. Polishing procedures can be simplified without increasing variability between operators and without jeopardizing polishing results.

Influence of curing rate on softening in ethanol, degree of conversion, and wear of resin composite

PURPOSE: To investigate the effect of curing rate on softening in ethanol, degree of conversion, and wear of resin composites. METHOD: With a given energy density and for each of two different light-curing units (QTH or LED), the curing rate was reduced by modulating the curing mode. Thus, the irradiation of resin composite specimens (Filtek Z250, Tetric Ceram, Esthet-X) was performed in a continuous curing mode and in a pulse-delay curing mode. Wallace hardness was used to determine the softening of resin composite after storage in ethanol. Degree of conversion was determined by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Wear was assessed by a three-body test. Data were submitted to Levene's test, one and three-way ANOVA, and Tukey HSD test (alpha = 0.05). Results: Immersion in ethanol, curing mode, and material all had significant effects on Wallace hardness. After ethanol storage, resin composites exposed to the pulse-delay curing mode were softer than resin composites exposed to continuous cure (P< 0.0001). Tetric Ceram was the softest material followed by Esthet-X and Filtek Z250 (P< 0.001). Only the restorative material had a significant effect on degree of conversion (P< 0.001): Esthet-X had the lowest degree of conversion followed by Filtek Z250 and Tetric Ceram. Curing mode (P= 0.007) and material (P< 0.001) had significant effect on wear. Higher wear resulted from the pulse-delay curing mode when compared to continuous curing, and Filtek Z250 showed the lowest wear followed by Esthet-X and Tetric Ceram.

Sonographic Assessment of Fetal Cardiac Function: Indirect Measurements of Fetal Cardiac Function, Newer Techniques and Clinical Applications

Noninvasive blood flow measurements based on Doppler ultrasound studies are the main clinical tool for studying the cardiovascular status of fetuses at risk for circulatory compromise. Usually, qualitative analysis of peripheral arteries and in particular clinical situations such as severe growth restriction or volume overload also of venous vessels close to the heart or of flow patterns in the heart is being used to gauge the level of compensation in a fetus. However, quantitative assessment of the driving force of the fetal circulation, the cardiac output remains an elusive goal in fetal medicine. This article reviews the methods for direct and indirect assessment of cardiac function and explains new clinical applications. Part 1 of this review describes the concept of cardiac function and cardiac output and the techniques that have been used to quantify output. Part 2 summarizes the use of arterial and venous Doppler studies in the fetus and gives a detailed description of indirect measurements of cardiac function (like indices derived from the duration of segments of the cardiac cycle) with current examples of their application.

The influence of toothbrushing and coffee staining on different composite surface coatings

The aim of our study is to evaluate the performance of surface sealants and conventional polishing after ageing procedures. Eighty circular composite restorations were performed on extracted human molars. After standardised roughening, the restorations were either sealed with one of three surface sealants (Lasting Touch (LT), BisCover LV (BC), G-Coat Plus (GP) or a dentin adhesive Heliobond (HB)) or were manually polished with silicon polishers (MP) (n = 16). The average roughness (Ra) and colourimetric parameters (CP) (L*a*b*) were evaluated. The specimens underwent an artificial ageing process by thermocycling, staining (coffee) and abrasive (toothbrushing) procedures. After each ageing step, Ra and CP measurements were repeated. A qualitative surface analysis was performed with SEM. The differences between the test groups regarding Ra and CP values were analysed with nonparametric ANOVA analysis (α = 0.05). The lowest Ra values were achieved with HB. BC and GP resulted in Ra values below 0.2 μm (clinically relevant threshold), whereas LT and MP sometimes led to higher Ra values. LT showed a significantly higher discolouration after the first coffee staining, but this was normalised to the other groups after toothbrushing. The differences between the measurements and test groups for Ra and CP were statistically significant. However, the final colour difference showed no statistical difference among the five groups. SEM evaluation showed clear alterations after ageing in all coating groups. Surface sealants and dentin adhesives have the potential to reduce surface roughness but tend to debond over time. Surface sealants can only be recommended for polishing provisional restorations.