Comparative carbon cycle dynamics of the present and last interglacial

Changes in temperature and carbon dioxide during glacial cycles recorded in Antarctic ice cores are tightly coupled. However, this relationship does not hold for interglacials. While climate cooled towards the end of both the last (Eemian) and present (Holocene) interglacials, CO₂ remained stable during the Eemian while rising in the Holocene. We identify and review twelve biogeochemical mechanisms of terrestrial (vegetation dynamics and CO₂ fertilization, land use, wild fire, accumulation of peat, changes in permafrost carbon, subaerial volcanic outgassing) and marine origin (changes in sea surface temperature, carbonate compensation to deglaciation and terrestrial biosphere regrowth, shallow-water carbonate sedimentation, changes in the soft tissue pump, and methane hydrates), which potentially may have contributed to the CO₂ dynamics during interglacials but which remain not well quantified. We use three Earth System Models (ESMs) of intermediate complexity to compare effects of selected mechanisms on the interglacial CO₂ and δ¹³ CO₂ changes, focusing on those with substantial potential impacts: namely carbonate sedimentation in shallow waters, peat growth, and (in the case of the Holocene) human land use. A set of specified carbon cycle forcings could qualitatively explain atmospheric CO₂ dynamics from 8ka BP to the pre-industrial. However, when applied to Eemian boundary conditions from 126 to 115 ka BP, the same set of forcings led to disagreement with the observed direction of CO₂ changes after 122 ka BP. This failure to simulate late-Eemian CO₂ dynamics could be a result of the imposed forcings such as prescribed CaCO₃ accumulation and/or an incorrect response of simulated terrestrial carbon to the surface cooling at the end of the interglacial. These experiments also reveal that key natural processes of interglacial CO₂ dynamics eshallow water CaCO₃ accumulation, peat and permafrost carbon dynamics are not well represented in the current ESMs. Global-scale modeling of these long-term carbon cycle components started only in the last decade, and uncertainty in parameterization of these mechanisms is a main limitation in the successful modeling of interglacial CO₂ dynamics.

Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies — not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.

The Potential of Tariff Policy for Climate Change Mitigation: Legal and Economic Analysis

This paper addresses a potential role that tariffs and tariff policy can play in encouraging countries to take part in a multilateral effort to mitigate climate change. It begins by assessing whether increasing tariffs on products from energy intensive or polluting industries amounts to a violation of WTO rules and whether protectionism in this case can be differentiated from genuine environmental concerns. It then argues that while lowering tariffs for environmental goods can serve as a carrot to promote dissemination of cleaner technologies, tariff deconsolidation is a legitimate stick to encourage polluting countries to move towards an international climate agreement. The paper further explores this view by undertaking a partialequilibrium simulation analysis to examine the impact of a unilateral unit increase in tariffs on the imports of the most carbon-intensive products from countries not committed to climate polices. Our results suggest that the committed importing countries would have to raise their tariffs only slightly to effect a significant decline in the imports of these products from the non-committed countries. For instance, a unit increase in the simple average applied tariffs on the imports of these carbon-intensive products in 2005 from our sample of non-committed exporting countries would reduce the imports of these products by an average 32.6% in Australia, 178% in Canada, 195% in the EU, 271% in Japan and 62% in the US, therebysuggesting the effectiveness of such a measure in pushing countries towards a global climate policy.

The Arduous Process of Climate Change Negotiations: How Science Can Facilitate the Desired Outcome

Effective interaction between climate science and policy is important for moving climate negotiations forward to reach an ambitious global climate change deal. Lack of progress in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations during recent years is a good reason for taking a closer look at the process of climate science–policy interaction to identify and eliminate existing shortcomings hindering climate policymaking. This paper examines the current state of climate science–policy interaction and suggests ways to integrate scientific input into the UNFCCC process more effectively. Suggestions relate to improvement in institutional structures, processes and procedures of the UNFCCC and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), quality of scientific input, credibility of scientific message and public awareness of climate change.

Perennial Snow and Ice Variations (2000-2008) in the Arctic Circumpolar Land Area from Satellite Observations

Perennial snow and ice (PSI) extent is an important parameter of mountain environments with regard to its involvement in the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. We investigated interannual variations of PSI in nine mountain regions of interest (ROI) between 2000 and 2008. For that purpose, a novel MODIS data set processed at the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing at 250 m spatial resolution was utilized. The extent of PSI exhibited significant interannual variations, with coefficients of variation ranging from 5% to 81% depending on the ROI. A strong negative relationship was found between PSI and positive degree-days (threshold 0°C) during the summer months in most ROIs, with linear correlation coefficients (r) being as low as r = −0.90. In the European Alps and Scandinavia, PSI extent was significantly correlated with annual net glacier mass balances, with r = 0.91 and r = 0.85, respectively, suggesting that MODIS-derived PSI extent may be used as an indicator of net glacier mass balances. Validation of PSI extent in two land surface classifications for the years 2000 and 2005, GLC-2000 and Globcover, revealed significant discrepancies of up to 129% for both classifications. With regard to the importance of such classifications for land surface parameterizations in climate and land surface process models, this is a potential source of error to be investigated in future studies. The results presented here provide an interesting insight into variations of PSI in several ROIs and are instrumental for our understanding of sensitive mountain regions in the context of global climate change assessment.

An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250

Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus, can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations, estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate, potassium, and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680, following an extremely dry period AD 1540-1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540-1680, the increase in fire activity AD 1600-1680, and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600-1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years, despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions.

Carbon pools and poverty peaks in Lao PDR

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhancing forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) is heavily promoted in Laos. REDD+ is often perceived as an opportunity to jointly address climate change and poverty and, therefore, could come timely for Laos to combine its prominent national target of poverty eradication with global climate mitigation efforts. Countrywide planning of the right approaches to REDD+ combined with poverty alleviation requires knowledge of the spatial combination of poverty and carbon stocks at the national level. This study combined spatial information on carbon stored in vegetation and on poverty and created carbon-poverty typologies for the whole country at the village level. We found that 11% of the villages of Laos have high to very high average village-level carbon stock densities and a predominantly poor population. These villages cover 20% of the territory and are characterized by low population density. Shifting cultivation areas in the northwestern parts of the country have a higher carbon mitigation potential than areas in the central and eastern highlands due to a more favorable climate. Finally, we found that in Laos the majority (58%) of poor people live in areas with low carbon stock densities without major potential to store carbon. Accordingly, REDD+ cannot be considered a core instrument for poverty alleviation. The carbon-poverty typologies presented here provide answers to basic questions related to planning and managing of REDD+. They could serve as a starting point for the design of systems to monitor both socioeconomic and environmental development at the national level.

Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

Description of the ERA-CLIM historical upper-air data

Historical, i.e. pre-1957, upper-air data are a valuable source of information on the state of the atmosphere, in some parts of the world dating back to the early 20th century. However, to date, reanalyses have only partially made use of these data, and only of observations made after 1948. Even for the period between 1948 (the starting year of the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis) and the International Geophysical Year in 1957 (the starting year of the ERA-40 reanalysis), when the global upper-air coverage reached more or less its current status, many observations have not yet been digitised. The Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network (CHUAN) already compiled a large collection of pre-1957 upper-air data. In the framework of the European project ERA-CLIM (European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations), significant amounts of additional upper-air data have been catalogued (> 1.3 million station days), imaged (> 200 000 images) and digitised (> 700 000 station days) in order to prepare a new input data set for upcoming reanalyses. The records cover large parts of the globe, focussing on, so far, less well covered regions such as the tropics, the polar regions and the oceans, and on very early upper-air data from Europe and the US. The total number of digitised/inventoried records is 61/101 for moving upper-air data, i.e. data from ships, etc., and 735/1783 for fixed upper-air stations. Here, we give a detailed description of the resulting data set including the metadata and the quality checking procedures applied. The data will be included in the next version of CHUAN. The data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.821222

Chronology of Lake El'gygytgyn sediments – a combined magnetostratigraphic, palaeoclimatic and orbital tuning study based on multi-parameter analyses

A 318-metre-long sedimentary profile drilled by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) at Site 5011-1 in Lake El’gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic, has been analysed for its sedimentologic response to global climate modes by chronostratigraphic methods. The 12 km wide lake is sited off-centre in an 18 km large crater that was created by the impact of a meteorite 3.58 Ma ago. Since then sediments have been continuously deposited. For establishing their chronology, major reversals of the earth’s magnetic field provided initial tie points for the age model, confirming that the impact occurred in the earliest geomagnetic Gauss chron. Various stratigraphic parameters, reflecting redox conditions at the lake floor and climatic conditions in the catchment were tuned synchronously to Northern Hemisphere insolation variations and the marine oxygen isotope stack, respectively. Thus, a robust age model comprising more than 600 tie points could be defined. It could be shown that deposition of sediments in Lake El’gygytgyn occurred in concert with global climatic cycles. The upper �160m of sediments represent the past 3.3 Ma, equivalent to sedimentation rates of 4 to 5 cm ka−1, whereas the lower 160m represent just the first 0.3 Ma after the impact, equivalent to sedimentation rates in the order of 45 cm ka−1. This study also provides orbitally tuned ages for a total of 8 tephras deposited in Lake El’gygytgyn.

Climatic variability during the last interglacial inferred from geochemical proxies in the Lake El'gygytgyn sediment record

The Last Interglacial Period (LIP) is often regarded as a good analogue for potential climatic conditions under predicted global warming scenarios. Despite this, there is still debate over the nature, duration and frequency of climatic changes during this period. One particularly contentious issue has been the apparent evidence of climatic instability identified in many marine cores but seemingly lacking from many terrestrial archives, especially within the Arctic, a key region for global climate change research. In this paper, geochemical records from Lake El'gygytgyn, north-eastern Russia, are used to infer past climatic changes during the LIP from within the high Arctic. With a sampling resolution of ~20–~90 years, these records offer the potential for detailed, high-resolution palaeoclimate reconstruction. This study shows that the LIP commenced in central Chukotka ~129 thousand years ago (ka), with the warmest climatic conditions occurring between ~128 and 127 ka before being interrupted by a short-lived cold reversal. Mild climatic conditions then persisted until ~122 ka when a marked reduction in the sedimentation rate suggests a decrease in precipitation. A further climatic deterioration at ~118 ka marks the return to glacial conditions. This study highlights the value of incorporating several geochemical proxies when inferring past climatic conditions, thus providing the potential to identify signals related to environmental change within the catchment. We also demonstrate the importance of considering how changes in sedimentation rate influence proxy records, in order to develop robust palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

Sedimentary evolution and environmental history of Lake Van (Turkey) over the past 600,000 years

The lithostratigraphic framework of Lake Van, eastern Turkey, has been systematically analysed to document the sedimentary evolution and the environmental history of the lake during the past ca 600,000 years. The lithostratigraphy and chemostratigraphy of a 219 m long drill core from Lake Van serves to separate global climate oscillations from local factors caused by tectonic and volcanic activity. An age model was established based on the climatostratigraphic alignment of chemical and lithological signatures, validated by 40Ar/39Ar ages. The drilled sequence consists of ca 76% lacustrine carbonaceous clayey silt, ca 2% fluvial deposits, ca 17% volcaniclastic deposits and 5% gaps. Six lacustrine lithotypes were separated from the fluvial and event deposits, such as volcaniclastics (ca 300 layers) and graded beds (ca 375 layers), and their depositional environments are documented. These lithotypes are: (i) graded beds frequently intercalated with varved clayey silts reflect rising lake-levels during the terminations; (ii) varved clayey silts reflect strong seasonality and an intralake oxic–anoxic boundary, for example, lake-level highstands during interglacials/interstadials; (iii) CaCO3-rich banded sediments are representative of a lowering of the oxic-anoxic boundary, for example, lake-level decreases during glacial inceptions; (iv) CaCO3-poor banded and mottled clayey silts reflect an oxic–anoxic boundary close to the sediment-water interface, for example, lake-level low-stands during glacials/stadials; (v) diatomaceous muds were deposited during the early beginning of the lake as a fresh water system; and (vi) fluvial sands and gravels indicate the initial flooding of the lake basin. The recurrence of lithologies (i) to (iv) follows the past five glacial/interglacial cycles. A 20 m thick disturbed unit reflects an interval of major tectonic activity in Lake Van at ca 414 ka BP.

Estimated strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation during the last deglaciation

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation affects the latitudinal distribution of heat, and is a key component of the climate system. Proxy reconstructions, based on sedimentary Pa-231/Th-230 ratios and the difference between surface-and deep-water radiocarbon ages, indicate that during the last glacial period, the overturning circulation was reduced during millennial-scale periods of cooling(1-5). However, much debate exists over the robustness of these proxies(6-8). Here e combine proxy reconstructions of sea surface and air temperatures and a global climate model to quantitatively estimate changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last glacial period. We find that, relative to the Last Glacial Maximum, the overturning circulation was reduced by approximately 14 Sv during the cold Heinrich event 1. During the Younger Dryas cold event, the overturning circulation was reduced by approximately 12 Sv, relative to the preceding warm interval. These changes are consistent with qualitative estimates of the overturning circulation from sedimentary Pa-231/Th-230 ratios. In addition, we find that the strength of the overturning circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene epoch are indistinguishable within the uncertainty of the reconstruction.