Hepatitis C: a changing epidemic.

Approximately 3% of the world population is estimated to have a chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and 500,000 individuals die from its consequences yearly. Persons who inject drugs (PWID) bear the majority of the disease burden in high-income countries. Drug substitution programmes have helped reduce HCV transmissions among PWID. However, recent epidemics of sexually transmitted HCV infections in HIV-infected men who have sex with men demonstrated the changing nature of the HCV epidemic. HCV therapy is undergoing a revolution, as new interferon-free, oral treatments eradicate HCV infections in almost all treated patients. As a consequence, the eradication of HCV has become a matter of debate and is becoming an important future public health target. However, for this to be achieved, many challenges need to be addressed, including the poor uptake of HCV testing, the high cost of the new antiviral combinations and the high frequency of re-infections after treatment in some populations.

Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND Estimates of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-infected population are important to understand the HIV epidemic and to plan interventions, including "test-and-treat" strategies. METHODS We developed a multi-state back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis, and the undiagnosed population by CD4 count strata, using surveillance data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses. The HIV incidence curve was modelled using cubic splines. The model was tested on simulated data and applied to surveillance data on men who have sex with men in The Netherlands. RESULTS The number of HIV infections could be estimated accurately using simulated data, with most values within the 95% confidence intervals of model predictions. When applying the model to Dutch surveillance data, 15,400 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15,000, 16,000) men who have sex with men were estimated to have been infected between 1980 and 2011. HIV incidence showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks around 1985 and 2005 and a decline in recent years. Mean time to diagnosis was 6.1 (95% CI = 5.8, 6.4) years between 1984 and 1995 and decreased to 2.6 (2.3, 3.0) years in 2011. By the end of 2011, 11,500 (11,000, 12,000) men who have sex with men in The Netherlands were estimated to be living with HIV, of whom 1,750 (1,450, 2,200) were still undiagnosed. Of the undiagnosed men who have sex with men, 29% (22, 37) were infected for less than 1 year, and 16% (13, 20) for more than 5 years. CONCLUSIONS This multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data.

Impact of the Ebola epidemic on general and HIV care in Macenta, Forest Guinea, 2014.

OBJECTIVE The current Ebola epidemic massively affected the Macenta district in Forest Guinea. We aimed at investigating its impact on general and HIV care at the only HIV care facility in the district. DESIGN Prospective observational single-facility study. METHODS Routinely collected data on use of general hospital services and HIV care were linked to Ebola surveillance data published by the Guinea Ministry of Health. In addition, we compared retention among HIV-infected patients enrolled into care in the first semesters of 2013 and 2014. RESULTS Throughout 2014, service offer was continuous and unaltered at the facility. During the main epidemic period (August-December 2014), compared with the same period of 2013, there were important reductions in attendance at the primary care outpatient clinic (-40%), in HIV tests done (-46%), in new diagnoses of tuberculosis (-53%) and in patients enrolled into HIV care (-47%). There was a smaller reduction in attendance at the HIV follow-up clinic (-11%). Kaplan-Meier estimates of retention were similar among the patients enrolled into care in 2014 and 2013. In a multivariable Cox regression analysis, the year of enrolment was not associated with attrition (hazard ratio 1.02; 95% confidence interval: 0.72-1.43). CONCLUSION The Ebola epidemic resulted in an important decrease in utilization of the facility despite unaltered service offer. Effects on care of HIV-positive patients enrolled prior to the epidemic were limited. HIV care in such circumstances is challenging, but not impossible.

Genetic stability of Schmallenberg virus in vivo during an epidemic, and in vitro, when passaged in the highly susceptible porcine SK-6 cell line

Schmallenberg virus (SBV), an arthropod-borne orthobunyavirus was first detected in 2011 in cattle suffering from diarrhea and fever. The most severe impact of an SBV infection is the induction of malformations in newborns and abortions. Between 2011 and 2013 SBV spread throughout Europe in an unprecedented epidemic wave. SBV contains a tripartite genome consisting of the three negative-sense RNA segments L, M, and S. The virus is usually isolated from clinical samples by inoculation of KC (insect) or BHK-21 (mammalian) cells. Several virus passages are required to allow adaptation of SBV to cells in vitro. In the present study, the porcine SK-6 cell line was used for isolation and passaging of SBV. SK-6 cells proved to be more sensitive to SBV infection and allowed to produce higher titers more rapidly as in BHK-21 cells after just one passage. No adaptation was required. In order to determine the in vivo genetic stability of SBV during an epidemic spread of the virus the nucleotide sequence of the genome from seven SBV field isolates collected in summer 2012 in Switzerland was determined and compared to other SBV sequences available in GenBank. A total of 101 mutations, mostly transitions randomly dispersed along the L and M segment were found when the Swiss isolates were compared to the first SBV isolated late 2011 in Germany. However, when these mutations were studied in detail, a previously described hypervariable region in the M segment was identified. The S segment was completely conserved among all sequenced SBV isolates. To assess the in vitro genetic stability of SBV, three isolates were passage 10 times in SK-6 cells and sequenced before and after passaging. Between two and five nt exchanges per genome were found. This low in vitro mutation rate further demonstrates the suitability of SK-6 cells for SBV propagation.

Tackling of unhealthy diets, physical inactivity, and obesity: health effects and cost-effectiveness

The obesity epidemic is spreading to low-income and middle-income countries as a result of new dietary habits and sedentary ways of life, fuelling chronic diseases and premature mortality. In this report we present an assessment of public health strategies designed to tackle behavioural risk factors for chronic diseases that are closely linked with obesity, including aspects of diet and physical inactivity, in Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. England was included for comparative purposes. Several population-based prevention policies can be expected to generate substantial health gains while entirely or largely paying for themselves through future reductions of health-care expenditures. These strategies include health information and communication strategies that improve population awareness about the benefits of healthy eating and physical activity; fiscal measures that increase the price of unhealthy food content or reduce the cost of healthy foods rich in fibre; and regulatory measures that improve nutritional information or restrict the marketing of unhealthy foods to children. A package of measures for the prevention of chronic diseases would deliver substantial health gains, with a very favourable cost-effectiveness profile.

Impact of obesity on stroke outcome after intravenous thrombolysis

Obesity is an established risk factor for stroke and has reached epidemic proportions. However, its impact on intravenous thrombolysis applied for acute ischemic stroke is not well known. We aimed to compare the clinical outcome and safety after intravenous thrombolysis in obese (body mass index ≥30 kg/m²) and nonobese (body mass index <30 kg/m²) patients with ischemic stroke.

Combining spatial-temporal and phylogenetic analysis approaches for improved understanding on global H5N1 transmission

Background Since late 2003, the highly pathogenic influenza A H5N1 had initiated several outbreak waves that swept across the Eurasia and Africa continents. Getting prepared for reassortment or mutation of H5N1 viruses has become a global priority. Although the spreading mechanism of H5N1 has been studied from different perspectives, its main transmission agents and spread route problems remain unsolved. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on a compilation of the time and location of global H5N1 outbreaks from November 2003 to December 2006, we report an interdisciplinary effort that combines the geospatial informatics approach with a bioinformatics approach to form an improved understanding on the transmission mechanisms of H5N1 virus. Through a spherical coordinate based analysis, which is not conventionally done in geographical analyses, we reveal obvious spatial and temporal clusters of global H5N1 cases on different scales, which we consider to be associated with two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Then through an interdisciplinary study of both geographic and phylogenetic analysis, we obtain a H5N1 spreading route map. Our results provide insight on competing hypotheses as to which avian hosts are responsible for the spread of H5N1. Conclusions/Significance We found that although South China and Southeast Asia may be the virus pool of avian flu, East Siberia may be the source of the H5N1 epidemic. The concentration of migratory birds from different places increases the possibility of gene mutation. Special attention should be paid to East Siberia, Middle Siberia and South China for improved surveillance of H5N1 viruses and monitoring of migratory birds.

[Pharmacotherapy of hyperthyreosis--adverse drug reactions]

The antithyroid drugs mainly include thioimidazole (carbimazole, methimazole=thiamazole) and propylthiouracil. After absorption, carbimazole is rapidly metabolized to methimazole and thus switching between these two drugs should not be considered in case of side effects. Furthermore, in case of side effects, sometimes even cross reactions between thioimidazoles and propylthiouracil occur. Common and typical adverse reactions of antithyroid drugs include dose dependent hypothyroidism and thus thyroid function should be repeatedly checked while the patient is on antithyroid drugs. Furthermore, pruritus and rash may develop. In this case, one might try to switch from thioimidazoles to propylthiouracil or vice versa. Antithyroid drugs may cause mild dose dependent neutropenia or severe allergy-mediated agranulocytosis, which typically occurs during the first three months of treatment, has an incidence of 3 per 10,000 patients and cross reactivity between thioimidazoles to propylthiouracil may occur. Rarely, antithyroid drugs can cause aplastic anemia. Mainly propylthiouracil, but sometimes also methimazole may lead to an asymptomatic transient increase in liver enzymes or to severe, even lethal liver injury of cholestatic or hepatocellular pattern. Since propylthiouracil associated liver injury was observed increasingly among children and adolescent, it has been suggested to prefer thioimidazoles for these patients. Because of these potential serious adverse effects, physicians should advise patients to immediately seek medical help if they get a fever or sore throat or malaise, abdominal complaints or jaundice, respectively. Furthermore, arthralgias may develop in 1-5% of patients under both antithyroid drugs. Since arthralgias may be the first symptom of more serious immunologic side effects, it is recommended to stop the antithyroid drug in this case. Drug induced polyarthritis mainly develops during the first month of therapy, whereas ANCA-positive vasculitis is generally observed only after long term exposure to propylthiouracil or very rarely with the thioimidazoles. The teratogenic risk of the thioimidazoles is somewhat higher (Aplasia cutis congenita), that is why one generally recommends preferring propylthiouracil during pregnancy. During breast feeding both, thioimidazoles or propylthiouracil, may be administered. Nowadays, perchlorate is only used short term in case of latent hyperthyroidism before administering iodine-containing contrast agents. Therefore, the known side effects, which usually are only observed after long term treatment, are not an issue any more.

Adjunctive dexamethasone affects the expression of genes related to inflammation, neurogenesis and apoptosis in infant rat pneumococcal meningitis

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the most common pathogen causing non-epidemic bacterial meningitis worldwide. The immune response and inflammatory processes contribute to the pathophysiology. Hence, the anti-inflammatory dexamethasone is advocated as adjuvant treatment although its clinical efficacy remains a question at issue. In experimental models of pneumococcal meningitis, dexamethasone increased neuronal damage in the dentate gyrus. Here, we investigated expressional changes in the hippocampus and cortex at 72 h after infection when dexamethasone was given to infant rats with pneumococcal meningitis. Nursing Wistar rats were intracisternally infected with Streptococcus pneumoniae to induce experimental meningitis or were sham-infected with pyrogen-free saline. Besides antibiotics, animals were either treated with dexamethasone or saline. Expressional changes were assessed by the use of GeneChip® Rat Exon 1.0 ST Arrays and quantitative real-time PCR. Protein levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor, cytokines and chemokines were evaluated in immunoassays using Luminex xMAP® technology. In infected animals, 213 and 264 genes were significantly regulated by dexamethasone in the hippocampus and cortex respectively. Separately for the cortex and the hippocampus, Gene Ontology analysis identified clusters of biological processes which were assigned to the predefined categories "inflammation", "growth", "apoptosis" and others. Dexamethasone affected the expression of genes and protein levels of chemokines reflecting diminished activation of microglia. Dexamethasone-induced changes of genes related to apoptosis suggest the downregulation of the Akt-survival pathway and the induction of caspase-independent apoptosis. Signalling of pro-neurogenic pathways such as transforming growth factor pathway was reduced by dexamethasone resulting in a lack of pro-survival triggers. The anti-inflammatory properties of dexamethasone were observed on gene and protein level in experimental pneumococcal meningitis. Further dexamethasone-induced expressional changes reflect an increase of pro-apoptotic signals and a decrease of pro-neurogenic processes. The findings may help to identify potential mechanisms leading to apoptosis by dexamethasone in experimental pneumococcal meningitis.

Twelve years' detection of respiratory viruses by immunofluorescence in hospitalised children: impact of the introduction of a new respiratory picornavirus assay

Background Direct immunofluorescence assays (DFA) are a rapid and inexpensive method for the detection of respiratory viruses and may therefore be used for surveillance. Few epidemiological studies have been published based solely on DFA and none included respiratory picornaviruses and human metapneumovirus (hMPV). We wished to evaluate the use of DFA for epidemiological studies with a long-term observation of respiratory viruses that includes both respiratory picornaviruses and hMPV. Methods Since 1998 all children hospitalized with respiratory illness at the University Hospital Bern have been screened with DFA for common respiratory viruses including adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B, and parainfluenza virus 1-3. In 2006 assays for respiratory picornaviruses and hMPV were added. Here we describe the epidemiological pattern for these respiratory viruses detected by DFA in 10'629 nasopharyngeal aspirates collected from 8'285 patients during a 12-year period (1998-2010). Results Addition of assays for respiratory picornaviruses and hMPV raised the proportion of positive DFA results from 35% to 58% (p < 0.0001). Respiratory picornaviruses were the most common viruses detected among patients ≥1 year old. The seasonal patterns and age distribution for the studied viruses agreed well with those reported in the literature. In 2010, an hMPV epidemic of unexpected size was observed. Conclusions DFA is a valid, rapid, flexible and inexpensive method. The addition of assays for respiratory picornaviruses and hMPV broadens its range of viral detection. DFA is, even in the "PCR era", a particularly adapted method for the long term surveillance of respiratory viruses in a pediatric population.

Surveillance and simulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie in small ruminants in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: After bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland. RESULTS: In sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.

Gender differences in survival among adult patients starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a multicentre cohort study

Background Increased mortality among men on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been documented but remains poorly understood. We examined the magnitude of and risk factors for gender differences in mortality on ART. Methods and Findings Analyses included 46,201 ART-naïve adults starting ART between January 2002 and December 2009 in eight ART programmes across South Africa (SA). Patients were followed from initiation of ART to outcome or analysis closure. The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were loss to follow-up (LTF), virologic suppression, and CD4+ cell count responses. Survival analyses were used to examine the hazard of death on ART by gender. Sensitivity analyses were limited to patients who were virologically suppressed and patients whose CD4+ cell count reached >200 cells/µl. We compared gender differences in mortality among HIV+ patients on ART with mortality in an age-standardised HIV-negative population. Among 46,201 adults (65% female, median age 35 years), during 77,578 person-years of follow-up, men had lower median CD4+ cell counts than women (85 versus 110 cells/µl, p<0.001), were more likely to be classified WHO stage III/IV (86 versus 77%, p<0.001), and had higher mortality in crude (8.5 versus 5.7 deaths/100 person-years, p<0.001) and adjusted analyses (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.22–1.41). After 36 months on ART, men were more likely than women to be truly LTF (AHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12–1.28) but not to die after LTF (AHR 1.04, 95% CI 0.86–1.25). Findings were consistent across all eight programmes. Virologic suppression was similar by gender; women had slightly better immunologic responses than men. Notably, the observed gender differences in mortality on ART were smaller than gender differences in age-standardised death rates in the HIV-negative South African population. Over time, non-HIV mortality appeared to account for an increasing proportion of observed mortality. The analysis was limited by missing data on baseline HIV disease characteristics, and we did not observe directly mortality in HIV-negative populations where the participating cohorts were located. Conclusions HIV-infected men have higher mortality on ART than women in South African programmes, but these differences are only partly explained by more advanced HIV disease at the time of ART initiation, differential LTF and subsequent mortality, and differences in responses to treatment. The observed differences in mortality on ART may be best explained by background differences in mortality between men and women in the South African population unrelated to the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

Background New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Genetic variations in IL28B and allergic disease in children

Environmental changes affecting the relationship between the developing immune system and microbial exposure have been implicated in the epidemic rise of allergic disease in developed countries. While early developmental differences in T cell function are well-recognised, there is now emerging evidence that this is related to developmental differences in innate immune function. In this study we sought to examine if differences associated with innate immunity contribute to the altered immune programming recognised in allergic children. Here, we describe for the first time, the association of carriage of the T allele of the tagging single nucleotide polymorphism rs12979860 3 kb upstream of IL28B, encoding the potent innate immune modulator type III interferon lambda (IFN-λ3), and allergy in children (p = 0.004; OR 4.56). Strikingly, the association between rs12979860 genotype and allergic disease is enhanced in girls. Furthermore, carriage of the T allele at rs12979860 correlates with differences in the pro-inflammatory profile during the first five years of life suggesting this contributes to the key differences in subsequent innate immune development in children who develop allergic disease. In the context of rising rates of disease, these immunologic differences already present at birth imply very early interaction between genetic predisposition and prenatal environmental influences.