Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Ultrasonic acoustic emissions in drought-stressed trees - more than signals from cavitation?

Ultrasonic acoustic emission (UAE) in trees is often related to collapsing water columns in the flow path as a result of tensions that are too strong (cavitation). However, in a decibel (dB) range below that associated with cavitation, a close relationship was found between UAE intensities and stem radius changes. • UAE was continuously recorded on the stems of mature field-grown trees of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens) at a dry inner-Alpine site in Switzerland over two seasons. The averaged 20-Hz records were related to microclimatic conditions in air and soil, sap-flow rates and stem-radius fluctuations de-trended for growth (ΔW). • Within a low-dB range (27 ± 1 dB), UAE regularly increased and decreased in a diurnal rhythm in parallel with ΔW on cloudy days and at night. These low-dB emissions were interrupted by UAE abruptly switching between the low-dB range and a high-dB range (36 ± 1 dB) on clear, sunny days, corresponding to the widely supported interpretation of UAE as sound from cavitations. • It is hypothesized that the low-dB signals in drought-stressed trees are caused by respiration and/or cambial growth as these physiological activities are tissue water-content dependent and have been shown to produce courses of CO2 efflux similar to our courses of ΔW and low-dB UAE.