Drivers of collaboration to mitigate climate change: An illustration of Swiss climate policy over 15 years

Climate change mitigation policy is driven by scientific knowledge and involves actors from the international, national and local decision-making levels. This multi-level and cross-sectoral context requires collaborative management when designing mitigation solutions over time and space. But collaboration in general policymaking settings, and particularly in the complex domain of climate mitigation, is not an easy task. This paper addresses the question of what drives collaboration among collective actors involved in climate mitigation policy. We wish to investigate whether common beliefs or power structures influence collaboration among actors. We adopt a longitudinal approach to grasp differences between the early and more advanced stages of mitigation policy design. We use survey data to investigate actors’ collaboration, beliefs and power, and apply a Stochastic Actor-oriented Model for network dynamics to three subsequent networks in Swiss climate policy between 1995 and 2012. Results show that common beliefs among actors, as well as formal power structures, have a higher impact on collaboration relations than perceived power structures. Furthermore, those effects hold true for decision-making about initial mitigation strategies, but less so for the implementation of those measures.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more than climate

Modeling of future water systems at the regional scale is a difficult task due to the complexity of current structures (multiple competing water uses, multiple actors, formal and informal rules) both temporally and spatially. Representing this complexity in the modeling process is a challenge that can be addressed by an interdisciplinary and holistic approach. The assessment of the water system of the Crans-Montana-Sierre area (Switzerland) and its evolution until 2050 were tackled by combining glaciological, hydrogeological, and hydrological measurements and modeling with the evaluation of water use through documentary, statistical and interview-based analyses. Four visions of future regional development were co-produced with a group of stakeholders and were then used as a basis for estimating future water demand. The comparison of the available water resource and the water demand at monthly time scale allowed us to conclude that for the four scenarios socioeconomic factors will impact on the future water systems more than climatic factors. An analysis of the sustainability of the current and future water systems based on four visions of regional development allowed us to identify those scenarios that will be more sustainable and that should be adopted by the decision-makers. The results were then presented to the stakeholders through five key messages. The challenges of communicating the results in such a way with stakeholders are discussed at the end of the article.

Determination of Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinolic acid A (Δ9-THCA-A) in whole blood and plasma by LC–MS/MS and application in authentic samples from drivers suspected of driving under the influence of cannabis

Delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinolic acid A (THCA-A) is the biosynthetic precursor of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in cannabis plants, and has no psychotropic effects. THCA-A can be detected in blood and urine, and several metabolites have been identified. THCA-A was also shown to be incorporated in hair by side stream smoke to a minor extent, but incorporation via blood stream or sweat seems unlikely. The detection of THCA-A in biological fluids may serve as a marker for differentiating between the intake of prescribed THC medication – containing only pure THC – and cannabis products containing THC besides THC-acid A and other cannabinoids. However, the knowledge about its usefulness in forensic cases is very limited. The aim of the present work was the development of a reliable method for THCA-A determination in human blood or plasma using LC–MS/MS and application to cases of driving under the influence of drugs. Fifty eight (58) authentic whole blood and the respective plasma samples were collected from drivers suspected of driving under the influence of cannabis from the region of Bern (Switzerland). Samples were first tested for THC, 11-OH-THC and THC-COOH, and then additionally for THCA-A. For this purpose, the existing LC–MS/MS method was modified and validated, and found to be selective and linear over a range of 1.0 to 200 ng/mL (the correlation coefficients were above 0.9980 in all validation runs). Limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) were 0.3 ng/mL and 1.0 ng/mL respectively. Intra- and inter-assay accuracy were equal or better than 90% and intra- and inter-assay precision were equal or better than 11.1%. The mean extraction efficiencies were satisfactory being equal or higher than 85.4%. THCA-A was stable in whole blood samples after 3 freeze/thaw cycles and storage at 4 °C for 7 days. Re-injection (autosampler) stability was also satisfactory. THC was present in all blood samples with levels ranging from 0.7 to 51 ng/mL. THCA-A concentrations ranged from 1.0 to 496 ng/mL in blood samples and from 1.4 to 824 ng/mL in plasma samples. The plasma:blood partition coefficient had a mean value of 1.7 (±0.21, SD). No correlation was found between the degree of intoxication or impairment stated in the police protocols or reports of medical examinations and the detected THCA-A-concentration in blood.

How involved are they really? A comparative network analysis of the institutional drivers of local actor inclusion

Different socio-economic and environmental drivers lead local communities in mountain regions to adapt land use practices and engage in protection policies. The political system also has to develop new approaches to adapt to those drivers. Local actors are the target group of those policy approaches, and the question arises of if and how much those actors are consulted or even integrated into the design of local land use and protection policies. This article addresses this question by comparing seven different case studies in Swiss mountain regions. Through a formal social network analysis, the inclusion of local actors in collaborative policy networks is investigated and compared to the involvement of other stakeholders representing the next higher sub-national or national decisional levels. Results show that there is a significant difference (1) in how local actors are embedded compared to other stakeholders; and (2) between top-down versus bottom-up designed policy processes.

Institutions as key drivers of collective action in WUAs [Water User Associations] of Uzbekistan

This paper presents a multifactor approach for performance assessment of Water Users Associations (WUAs) in Uzbekistan in order to identify the drivers for improved and effi cient performance of WUAs. The study was carried out in the Fergana Valley where the WUAs were created along the South Fergana Main Canal during the last 10 years. The farmers and the employees of 20 WUAs were questioned about the WUAs’ activities and the quantitative and qualitative data were obtained. This became a base for the calculation of 36 indicators divided into 6 groups: Water supply, technical conditions, economic conditions, social and cultural conditions, organizational conditions and information conditions. All the indicators assessed with a differentiated point system adjusted for subjectivity of several of them give the total maximal result for the associations of 250 point. The WUAs of the Fergana Valley showed the score between 145 and 219 points, what refl ects a highly diverse level of the WUAs performance in the region. The analysis of the indicators revealed that the key points of the WUA’s success are the organizational and institutional conditions including the participatory factors and awareness of both the farmers and employees about the work of WUA. The research showed that the low performance of the WUAs is always explained by the low technical and economic conditions along with weak organization and information dissemination conditions. It is clear that it is complicated to improve technical and economic conditions immediately because they are cost-based and cost-induced. However, it is possible to improve the organizational conditions and to strengthen the institutional basis via formal and information institutions which will gradually lead to improvement of economic and technical conditions of WUAs. Farmers should be involved into the WUA Governance and into the process of making common decisions and solving common problems together via proper institutions. Their awareness can also be improved by leading additional trainings for increasing farmers’ agronomic and irrigation knowledge, teaching them water saving technologies and acquainting them with the use of water measuring equipment so it can bring reliable water supply, transparent budgeting and adequate as well as equitable water allocation to the water users.

Explaining car drivers' intention to prevent road-traffic noise: An application of the Norm Activation Model

Strengthening car drivers’ intention to prevent road-traffic noise is a first step toward noise abatement through voluntary change of behavior. We analyzed predictors of this intention based on the norm activation model (i.e., personal norm, problem awareness, awareness of consequences, social norm, and value orientations). Moreover, we studied the effects of noise exposure, noise sensitivity, and noise annoyance on problem awareness. Data came from 1,002 car drivers who participated in a two-wave longitudinal survey over 4 months. Personal norm had a large prospective effect on intention, even when the previous level of intention was controlled for, and mediated the effect of all other variables on intention. Almost 60% of variance in personal norm was explained by problem awareness, social norm, and biospheric value orientation. The effects of noise sensitivity and noise exposure on problem awareness were small and mediated by noise annoyance. We propose four communication strategies for strengthening the intention to prevent road-traffic noise in car drivers.

Non-illness-related factors contributing to traffic safety in older drivers: a litterature review

Background/Study Context: Older drivers are at increased risk of becoming involved in car crashes. Contrary to well-studied illness-related factors contributing to crash risk, the non-illness-related factors that can influence safety of older drivers are underresearched. METHODS: Here, the authors review the literature on non-illness-related factors influencing driving in people over age 60. We identified six safety-relevant factors: road infrastructure, vehicle characteristics, traffic-related knowledge, accuracy of self-awareness, personality traits, and self-restricted driving. RESULTS: The literature suggests that vehicle preference, the quality of traffic-related knowledge, the location and time of traffic exposure, and personality traits should all be taken into account when assessing fitness-to-drive in older drivers. Studies indicate that self-rating of driving skills does not reliably predict fitness-to-drive. CONCLUSIONS: Most factors discussed are adaptable or accessible to training and collectively may have the potential to increase traffic safety for older drivers and other road users.

Synoptic drivers of 400 years of summer temperature and precipitation variability on Mt. Olympus, Greece

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.

HIV-1 Transmission During Recent Infection and During Treatment Interruptions as Major Drivers of New Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND  Reducing the fraction of transmissions during recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is essential for the population-level success of "treatment as prevention". METHODS  A phylogenetic tree was constructed with 19 604 Swiss sequences and 90 994 non-Swiss background sequences. Swiss transmission pairs were identified using 104 combinations of genetic distance (1%-2.5%) and bootstrap (50%-100%) thresholds, to examine the effect of those criteria. Monophyletic pairs were classified as recent or chronic transmission based on the time interval between estimated seroconversion dates. Logistic regression with adjustment for clinical and demographic characteristics was used to identify risk factors associated with transmission during recent or chronic infection. FINDINGS  Seroconversion dates were estimated for 4079 patients on the phylogeny, and comprised between 71 (distance, 1%; bootstrap, 100%) to 378 transmission pairs (distance, 2.5%; bootstrap, 50%). We found that 43.7% (range, 41%-56%) of the transmissions occurred during the first year of infection. Stricter phylogenetic definition of transmission pairs was associated with higher recent-phase transmission fraction. Chronic-phase viral load area under the curve (adjusted odds ratio, 3; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-5.48) and time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) start (adjusted odds ratio 1.4/y; 1.11-1.77) were associated with chronic-phase transmission as opposed to recent transmission. Importantly, at least 14% of the chronic-phase transmission events occurred after the transmitter had interrupted ART. CONCLUSIONS  We demonstrate a high fraction of transmission during recent HIV infection but also chronic transmissions after interruption of ART in Switzerland. Both represent key issues for treatment as prevention and underline the importance of early diagnosis and of early and continuous treatment.

Living in Heterogeneous Woodlands – Are Habitat Continuity or Quality Drivers of Genetic Variability in a Flightless Ground Beetle?

Although genetic diversity is one of the key components of biodiversity, its drivers are still not fully understood. While it is known that genetic diversity is affected both by environmental parameters as well as habitat history, these factors are not often tested together. Therefore, we analyzed 14 microsatellite loci in Abax parallelepipedus, a flightless, forest dwelling ground beetle, from 88 plots in two study regions in Germany. We modeled the effects of historical and environmental variables on allelic richness, and found for one of the regions, the Schorfheide-Chorin, a significant effect of the depth of the litter layer, which is a main component of habitat quality, and of the sampling effort, which serves as an inverse proxy for local population size. For the other region, the Schwäbische Alb, none of the potential drivers showed a significant effect on allelic richness. We conclude that the genetic diversity in our study species is being driven by current local population sizes via environmental variables and not by historical processes in the studied regions. This is also supported by lack of genetic differentiation between local populations sampled from ancient and from recent woodlands. We suggest that the potential effects of former fragmentation and recolonization processes have been mitigated by the large and stable local populations of Abax parallelepipedus in combination with the proximity of the ancient and recent woodlands in the studied landscapes.

Drivers of nitrogen leaching from organic layers in Central European beech forests

Background and Aims: The response of forest ecosystems to continuous nitrogen (N) deposition is still uncertain. We investigated imports and exports of dissolved N from mull-type organic layers to identify the controls of N leaching in Central European beech forests under continuous N deposition. Methods: Dissolved N fluxes with throughfall and through mull-type organic layers (litter leachate) were measured continuously in 12 beech forests on calcareous soil in two regions in Germany over three consecutive growing seasons. Results Mean growing season net (i.e. litter leachate – throughfall flux) fluxes of total dissolved N (TDN) from the organic layer were low (2.3 ± 5.6 kg ha −1 ) but varied widely from 12.9 kg ha −1 to –8.3 kg ha −1 . The small increase of dissolved N fluxes during the water passage through mull-type organic layers suggested that high turnover rates coincided with high microbial N assimilation and plant N uptake. Stand basal area had a positive feedback on N fluxes by providing litter for soil organic matter forma- tion. Plant diversity, especially herb diversity, reduced dissolved N fluxes. Soil fauna biomass increased NO3−-N fluxes with litter leachate by stimulating mineralization. Microbial biomass measures were not related to dissolved N fluxes. Conclusions Our results show that dissolved N exports from organic layers contain significant amounts of throughfall-derived N (mainly NO3−-N) that flushes through the organic layer but also highlight that N leaching from organic layers is driven by the complex interplay of plants, animals and microbes. Furthermore, diverse understories reduce N leaching from Central European beech forests.