17 resultados para distribution (probability theory)
Resumo:
Numerical calculations describing weathering of the Poços de Caldas alkaline complex (Minas Gerais, Brazil) by infiltrating groundwater are carried out for time spans up to two million years in the absence of pyrite, and up to 500,000 years with pyrite present. Deposition of uranium resulting from infiltration of oxygenated, uranium bearing groundwater through the hydrothermally altered phonolitic host rock at the Osamu Utsumi uranium mine is also included in the latter calculation. The calculations are based on the quasi-stationary state approximation to mass conservation equations for pure advective transport. This approximation enables the prediction of solute concentrations, mineral abundances and porosity as functions of time and distance over geologic time spans. Mineral reactions are described by kinetic rate laws for both precipitation and dissolution. Homogeneous equilibrium is assumed to be maintained within the aqueous phase. No other constraints are imposed on the calculations other than the initial composition of the unaltered host rock and the composition of the inlet fluid, taken as rainwater modified by percolation through a soil zone. The results are in qualitative agreement with field observations at the Osamu Utsumi uranium mine. They predict a lateritic cover followed by a highly porous saprolitic zone, a zone of oxidized rock with pyrite replaced by iron-hydroxide, a sharp redox front at which uranium is deposited, and the reduced unweathered host rock. Uranium is deposited in a narrow zone located on the reduced side of the redox front in association with pyrite, in agreement with field observations. The calculations predict the formation of a broad dissolution front of primary kaolinite that penetrates deep into the host rock accompanied by the precipitation of secondary illite. Secondary kaolinite occurs in a saprolitic zone near the surface and in the vicinity of the redox front. Gibbsite forms a bi-modal distribution consisting of a maximum near the surface followed by a thin tongue extending downward into the weathered profile in agreement with field observations. The results are found to be insensitive to the kinetic rate constants used to describe mineral reactions.
Resumo:
We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.