Plasma environment of a weak comet – Predictions for Comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko from multifluid-MHD and Hybrid models

The interaction of a comet with the solar wind undergoes various stages as the comet’s activity varies along its orbit. For a comet like 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, the target comet of ESA’s Rosetta mission, the various features include the formation of a Mach cone, the bow shock, and close to perihelion even a diamagnetic cavity. There are different approaches to simulate this complex interplay between the solar wind and the comet’s extended neutral gas coma which include magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and hybrid-type models. The first treats the plasma as fluids (one fluid in basic single fluid MHD) and the latter treats the ions as individual particles under the influence of the local electric and magnetic fields. The electrons are treated as a charge-neutralizing fluid in both cases. Given the different approaches both models yield different results, in particular for a low production rate comet. In this paper we will show that these differences can be reduced when using a multifluid instead of a single-fluid MHD model and increase the resolution of the Hybrid model. We will show that some major features obtained with a hybrid type approach like the gyration of the cometary heavy ions and the formation of the Mach cone can be partially reproduced with the multifluid-type model.

Comparison of 3D kinetic and hydrodynamic models to ROSINA-COPS measurements of the neutral coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) is a Jupiter-family comet and the object of investigation of the European Space Agency mission Rosetta. This report presents the first full 3D simulation results of 67P’s neutral gas coma. In this study we include results from a direct simulation Monte Carlo method, a hydrodynamic code, and a purely geometric calculation which computes the total illuminated surface area on the nucleus. All models include the triangulated 3D shape model of 67P as well as realistic illumination and shadowing conditions. The basic concept is the assumption that these illumination conditions on the nucleus are the main driver for the gas activity of the comet. As a consequence, the total production rate of 67P varies as a function of solar insolation. The best agreement between the model and the data is achieved when gas fluxes on the night side are in the range of 7% to 10% of the maximum flux, accounting for contributions from the most volatile components. To validate the output of our numerical simulations we compare the results of all three models to in situ gas number density measurements from the ROSINA COPS instrument. We are able to reproduce the overall features of these local neutral number density measurements of ROSINA COPS for the time period between early August 2014 and January 1 2015 with all three models. Some details in the measurements are not reproduced and warrant further investigation and refinement of the models. However, the overall assumption that illumination conditions on the nucleus are at least an important driver of the gas activity is validated by the models. According to our simulation results we find the total production rate of 67P to be constant between August and November 2014 with a value of about 1 × 10²⁶ molecules s⁻¹.

Approaches for the vaccination and treatment of Neospora caninum infections in mice and ruminant models.

Neospora caninum is a leading cause of abortion in cattle, and is thus an important veterinary health problem of high economic significance. Vaccination has been considered a viable strategy to prevent bovine neosporosis. Different approaches have been investigated, and to date the most promising results have been achieved with live-attenuated vaccines. Subunit vaccines have also been studied, and most of them represented components that are functionally involved in (i) the physical interaction between the parasite and its host cell during invasion or (ii) tachyzoite-to-bradyzoite stage conversion. Drugs have been considered as an option to limit the effects of vertical transmission of N. caninum. Promising results with a small panel of compounds in small laboratory animal models indicate the potential value of a chemotherapeutical approach for the prevention of neosporosis in ruminants. For both, vaccines and drugs, the key for success in preventing vertical transmission lies in the application of bioactive compounds that limit parasite proliferation and dissemination, without endangering the developing fetus not only during an exogenous acute infection but also during recrudescence of a chronic infection. In this review, the current status of vaccine and drug development is presented and novel strategies against neosporosis are discussed.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

Simulator training on pulsatile vascular models significantly improves surgical skills and the quality of carotid patch plasty

Vascular surgeons perform numerous highly sophisticated and delicate procedures. Due to restrictions in training time and the advent of endovascular techniques, new concepts including alternative environments for training and assessment of surgical skills are required. Over the past decade, training on simulators and synthetic models has become more sophisticated and lifelike. This study was designed to evaluate the impact of a 3-day intense training course in open vascular surgery on both specific and global vascular surgical skills.

Models with Plants, Microorganisms and Viruses for Basic Research in Homeopathy

Most criticism about homeopathy concerns the lack of a scientific basis and theoretical models. In order to be accepted as a valid part of medical practice, a wellstructured research strategy for homeopathy is needed. This is often hampered by methodological problems as well as by gross underinvestment in the required academic resources. Fundamental research could make important contributions to our understanding of the homeopathic and high dilutions mechanisms of action. Since the pioneering works of Kolisko on wheat germination (Kolisko, 1923) and Junker on growth of microorganisms (paramecium, yeast, fungi) (Junker, 1928), a number of experiments have been performed either with healthy organisms (various physiological aspects of growth) or with artificially diseased organisms, which may react more markedly to homeopathic treatments than healthy ones. In the latter case, the preliminary stress may be either abiotic, e.g. heavy metals, or biotic, e.g. fungal and viral pathogens or nematode infection. Research has also been carried out into the applicability of homeopathic principles to crop growth and disease control (agrohomeopathy): because of the extreme dilutions used, the environmental impact is low and such treatments are well suited to the holistic approach of sustainable agriculture (Betti et al., 2006). Unfortunately, as Scofield reported in an extensive critical review (Scofield, 1984), there is little firm evidence to support the reliability of the reported results, due to poor experimental methodology and inadequate statistical analysis. Moreover, since there is no agricultural homeopathic pharmacopoeia, much work is required to find suitable remedies, potencies and dose levels.

Hierarchical modeling gave plausible estimates of associations between metabolic syndrome and components of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.

Replications of fundamental research models in ultra high dilutions 1994 and 2015 - update on a bibliometric study

INTRODUCTION This paper focuses exclusively on experimental models with ultra high dilutions (i.e. beyond 10(-23)) that have been submitted to replication scrutiny. It updates previous surveys, considers suggestions made by the research community and compares the state of replication in 1994 with that in 2015. METHODS Following literature research, biochemical, immunological, botanical, cell biological and zoological studies on ultra high dilutions (potencies) were included. Reports were grouped into initial studies, laboratory-internal, multicentre and external replications. Repetition could yield either comparable, or zero, or opposite results. The null-hypothesis was that test and control groups would not be distinguishable (zero effect). RESULTS A total of 126 studies were found. From these, 28 were initial studies. When all 98 replicative studies were considered, 70.4% (i.e. 69) reported a result comparable to that of the initial study, 20.4% (20) zero effect and 9.2% (9) an opposite result. Both for the studies until 1994 and the studies 1995-2015 the null-hypothesis (dominance of zero results) should be rejected. Furthermore, the odds of finding a comparable result are generally higher than of finding an opposite result. Although this is true for all three types of replication studies, the fraction of comparable studies diminishes from laboratory-internal (total 82.9%) to multicentre (total 75%) to external (total 48.3%), while the fraction of opposite results was 4.9%, 10.7% and 13.8%. Furthermore, it became obvious that the probability of an external replication producing comparable results is bigger for models that had already been further scrutinized by the initial researchers. CONCLUSIONS We found 28 experimental models which underwent replication. In total, 24 models were replicated with comparable results, 12 models with zero effect, and 6 models with opposite results. Five models were externally reproduced with comparable results. We encourage further replications of studies in order to learn more about the model systems used.

Global models of planet formation and evolution

Despite the strong increase in observational data on extrasolar planets, the processes that led to the formation of these planets are still not well understood. However, thanks to the high number of extrasolar planets that have been discovered, it is now possible to look at the planets as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical formation models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis where synthetic planetary populations are generated and compared to the actual population. The key element of the population synthesis method is a global model of planet formation and evolution. These models directly predict observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disc, linking two important classes of astrophysical objects. To do so, global models build on the simplified results of many specialized models that address one specific physical mechanism. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disc (of gas and solids), those that describe one (proto)planet (its solid core, gaseous envelope and atmosphere), and finally those that describe the interactions (orbital migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches taken in different global models, discuss the links between specialized and global models, and identify physical processes that require improved descriptions in future work. We then shortly address important results of planetary population synthesis like the planetary mass function or the mass-radius relationship. With these statistical results, the global effects of physical mechanisms occurring during planet formation and evolution become apparent, and specialized models describing them can be put to the observational test. Owing to their nature as meta models, global models depend on the results of specialized models, and therefore on the development of the field of planet formation theory as a whole. Because there are important uncertainties in this theory, it is likely that the global models will in future undergo significant modifications. Despite these limitations, global models can already now yield many testable predictions. With future global models addressing the geophysical characteristics of the synthetic planets, it should eventually become possible to make predictions about the habitability of planets based on their formation and evolution.

A comparison between 2D and 3D cephalometry on CBCT scans of human skulls

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether measurements on conventional cephalometric radiographs are comparable with 3D measurements on 3D models of human skulls, derived from cone beam CT (CBCT) data. A CBCT scan and a conventional cephalometric radiograph were made of 40 dry skulls. Standard cephalometric software was used to identify landmarks on both the 2D images and the 3D models. The same operator identified 17 landmarks on the cephalometric radiographs and on the 3D models. All images and 3D models were traced five times with a time-interval of 1 week and the mean value of repeated measurements was used for further statistical analysis. Distances and angles were calculated. Intra-observer reliability was good for all measurements. The reproducibility of the measurements on the conventional cephalometric radiographs was higher compared with the reproducibility of measurements on the 3D models. For a few measurements a clinically relevant difference between measurements on conventional cephalometric radiographs and 3D models was found. Measurements on conventional cephalometric radiographs can differ significantly from measurements on 3D models of the same skull. The authors recommend that 3D tracings for longitudinal research are not used in cases were there are only 2D records from the past.

Standard intracranial in vivo animal models of delayed cerebral vasospasm

Animal models provide a basis for clarifying the complex pathogenesis of delayed cerebral vasospasm (DCVS) and for screening of potential therapeutic approaches. Arbitrary use of experimental parameters in current models can lead to results of uncertain relevance. The aim of this work was to identify and analyze the most consistent and feasible models and their parameters for each animal.

The genetic basis of craniofacial and dental abnormalities

The embryonic head development, including the formation of dental structures, is a complex and delicate process guided by specific genetic programs. Genetic changes and environmental factors can disturb the execution of these programs and result in abnormalities in orofacial and dental structures. Orofacial clefts and hypodontia/ oligodontia are examples of such abnormalities frequently seen in dental clinics. An insight into the mechanisms and genes involved in the formation of orofacial and dental structures has been gradually gained by genetic analysis of families and by the use of experimental vertebrate models such as the mouse and chick models. The development of novel clinical therapies for orofacial and dental pathological conditions depends very much on a detailed knowledge of the molecular and cellular processes that are involved in head formation.

Functional Imaging of Pheochromocytoma with Ga-DOTATOC and C-HED in a Genetically Defined Rat Model of Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia

Rats affected by the MENX multitumor syndrome develop pheochromocytoma (100%). Pheochromocytomas are uncommon tumors and animal models are scarce, hence the interest in MENX rats to identify and preclinically evaluate novel targeted therapies. A prerequisite for such studies is a sensitive and noninvasive detection of MENXassociated pheochromocytoma. We performed positron emission tomography (PET) to determine whether rat pheochromocytomas are detected by tracers used in clinical practice, such as 68Ga-DOTATOC (somatostatin analogue) or (11)C-Hydroxyephedrine (HED), a norepinephrine analogue. We analyzed four affected and three unaffected rats. The PET scan findings were correlated to histopathology and immunophenotype of the tumors, their proliferative index, and the expression of genes coding for somatostatin receptors or the norepinephrine transporter. We observed that mean 68Ga-DOTATOC standard uptake value (SUV) in adrenals of affected animals was 23.3 ± 3.9, significantly higher than in control rats (15.4 ± 7.9; P = .03). The increase in mean tumor-to-liver ratio of (11)C-HED in the MENX-affected animals (1.6 ± 0.5) compared to controls (0.7 ± 0.1) was even more significant (P = .0016). In a unique animal model, functional imaging depicting two pathways important in pheochromocytoma biology discriminated affected animals from controls, thus providing the basis for future preclinical work with MENX rats.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.