Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in AIDS-free HIV-1-infected patients: a collaborative analysis of 18 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND: The CD4 cell count at which combination antiretroviral therapy should be started is a central, unresolved issue in the care of HIV-1-infected patients. In the absence of randomised trials, we examined this question in prospective cohort studies. METHODS: We analysed data from 18 cohort studies of patients with HIV. Antiretroviral-naive patients from 15 of these studies were eligible for inclusion if they had started combination antiretroviral therapy (while AIDS-free, with a CD4 cell count less than 550 cells per microL, and with no history of injecting drug use) on or after Jan 1, 1998. We used data from patients followed up in seven of the cohorts in the era before the introduction of combination therapy (1989-95) to estimate distributions of lead times (from the first CD4 cell count measurement in an upper range to the upper threshold of a lower range) and unseen AIDS and death events (occurring before the upper threshold of a lower CD4 cell count range is reached) in the absence of treatment. These estimations were used to impute completed datasets in which lead times and unseen AIDS and death events were added to data for treated patients in deferred therapy groups. We compared the effect of deferred initiation of combination therapy with immediate initiation on rates of AIDS and death, and on death alone, in adjacent CD4 cell count ranges of width 100 cells per microL. FINDINGS: Data were obtained for 21 247 patients who were followed up during the era before the introduction of combination therapy and 24 444 patients who were followed up from the start of treatment. Deferring combination therapy until a CD4 cell count of 251-350 cells per microL was associated with higher rates of AIDS and death than starting therapy in the range 351-450 cells per microL (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.04-1.57). The adverse effect of deferring treatment increased with decreasing CD4 cell count threshold. Deferred initiation of combination therapy was also associated with higher mortality rates, although effects on mortality were less marked than effects on AIDS and death (HR 1.13, 0.80-1.60, for deferred initiation of treatment at CD4 cell count 251-350 cells per microL compared with initiation at 351-450 cells per microL). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that 350 cells per microL should be the minimum threshold for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, and should help to guide physicians and patients in deciding when to start treatment.

Zidovudine impairs immunological recovery on first-line antiretroviral therapy: collaborative analysis of cohort studies in southern Africa

OBJECTIVES Zidovudine (ZDV) is recommended for first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. ZDV may, however, lead to anemia and impaired immunological response. We compared CD4+ cell counts over 5 years between patients starting ART with and without ZDV in southern Africa. DESIGN Cohort study. METHODS Patients aged at least 16 years who started first-line ART in South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, or Lesotho were included. We used linear mixed-effect models to compare CD4+ cell count trajectories between patients on ZDV-containing regimens and patients on other regimens, censoring follow-up at first treatment change. Impaired immunological recovery, defined as a CD4+ cell count below 100 cells/μl at 1 year, was assessed in logistic regression. Analyses were adjusted for baseline CD4+ cell count and hemoglobin level, age, sex, type of regimen, viral load monitoring, and calendar year. RESULTS A total of 72,597 patients starting ART, including 19,758 (27.2%) on ZDV, were analyzed. Patients on ZDV had higher CD4+ cell counts (150 vs.128 cells/μl) and hemoglobin level (12.0 vs. 11.0 g/dl) at baseline, and were less likely to be women than those on other regimens. Adjusted differences in CD4+ cell counts between regimens containing and not containing ZDV were -16 cells/μl [95% confidence interval (CI) -18 to -14] at 1 year and -56 cells/μl (95% CI -59 to -52) at 5 years. Impaired immunological recovery was more likely with ZDV compared to other regimens (odds ratio 1.40, 95% CI 1.22-1.61). CONCLUSION In southern Africa, ZDV is associated with inferior immunological recovery compared to other backbones. Replacing ZDV with another nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor could avoid unnecessary switches to second-line ART.

Life expectancies of South African adults starting antiretroviral treatment: collaborative analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND Few estimates exist of the life expectancy of HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the life expectancy of patients starting ART in South Africa and compare it with that of HIV-negative adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS Data were collected from six South African ART cohorts. Analysis was restricted to 37,740 HIV-positive adults starting ART for the first time. Estimates of mortality were obtained by linking patient records to the national population register. Relative survival models were used to estimate the excess mortality attributable to HIV by age, for different baseline CD4 categories and different durations. Non-HIV mortality was estimated using a South African demographic model. The average life expectancy of men starting ART varied between 27.6 y (95% CI: 25.2-30.2) at age 20 y and 10.1 y (95% CI: 9.3-10.8) at age 60 y, while estimates for women at the same ages were substantially higher, at 36.8 y (95% CI: 34.0-39.7) and 14.4 y (95% CI: 13.3-15.3), respectively. The life expectancy of a 20-y-old woman was 43.1 y (95% CI: 40.1-46.0) if her baseline CD4 count was ≥ 200 cells/µl, compared to 29.5 y (95% CI: 26.2-33.0) if her baseline CD4 count was <50 cells/µl. Life expectancies of patients with baseline CD4 counts ≥ 200 cells/µl were between 70% and 86% of those in HIV-negative adults of the same age and sex, and life expectancies were increased by 15%-20% in patients who had survived 2 y after starting ART. However, the analysis was limited by a lack of mortality data at longer durations. CONCLUSIONS South African HIV-positive adults can have a near-normal life expectancy, provided that they start ART before their CD4 count drops below 200 cells/µl. These findings demonstrate that the near-normal life expectancies of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART in high-income countries can apply to low- and middle-income countries as well. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Prognosis of Children with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Collaborative Analysis of Treatment Programs

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models for children starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa are lacking. We developed models to estimate the probability of death during the first year receiving ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We analyzed data from children ≤10 years old who started ART in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia or Zimbabwe from 2004-2010. Children lost to follow-up or transferred were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the first year of ART. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4%, age, WHO clinical stage, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) and anemia and one without CD4%, because it is not routinely measured in many programs. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: Among 12655 children, 877 (6.9%) died in the first year of ART. 1780 children were lost to follow-up/transferred and excluded from main analyses; 10875 children were included. With the CD4% model probability of death at 1 year ranged from 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5-2.3) in children 5-10 years with CD4% ≥10%, WHO stage I/II, WAZ ≥-2 and without severe anemia to 46.3% (95% CI: 38.2-55.2) in children <1 year with CD4% <5%, stage III/IV, WAZ< -3 and severe anemia. The corresponding range for the model without CD4% was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.8-2.7) to 33.4% (95% CI: 28.2-39.3). Agreement between predicted and observed mortality was good (C-statistics=0.753 and 0.745 for models with and without CD4% respectively). CONCLUSION: These models may be useful to counsel children/caregivers, for program planning and to assess program outcomes after allowing for differences in patient disease severity characteristics.

When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%. METHODS AND FINDINGS ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3) (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

New Technologies and Concepts for Rehabilitation in the Acute Phase of Stroke: A Collaborative Matrix

The process of developing a successful stroke rehabilitation methodology requires four key components: a good understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying this brain disease, clear neuroscientific hypotheses to guide therapy, adequate clinical assessments of its efficacy on multiple timescales, and a systematic approach to the application of modern technologies to assist in the everyday work of therapists. Achieving this goal requires collaboration between neuroscientists, technologists and clinicians to develop well-founded systems and clinical protocols that are able to provide quantitatively validated improvements in patient rehabilitation outcomes. In this article we present three new applications of complementary technologies developed in an interdisciplinary matrix for acute-phase upper limb stroke rehabilitation – functional electrical stimulation, arm robot-assisted therapy and virtual reality-based cognitive therapy. We also outline the neuroscientific basis of our approach, present our detailed clinical assessment protocol and provide preliminary results from patient testing of each of the three systems showing their viability for patient use.

HIV encephalopathy: incidence, definition and pathogenesis. Results of a Swiss collaborative study

The incidence of HIV encephalopathies was determined in an ongoing consecutive autopsy study. Among 345 patients who died from AIDS in Switzerland during 1981-1990, 68 (19%) showed morphological evidence of HIV encephalopathy. Two major histopathological manifestations were observed. Progressive diffuse leukoencephalopathy (PDL) was present in 33 cases and is characterized by a diffuse loss of myelin staining in the deep white matter of the cerebral and cerebellar hemispheres, with scattered multinucleated giant cells but little or no inflammatory reaction. Multinucleated giant cell encephalitis (MGCE) was diagnosed in 32 cases; it's hallmarks are accumulations of multinucleated giant cells with prominent inflammatory reaction and focal necroses. In 3 patients both types of lesions overlapped. Brain tissue from 27 patients was analyzed for the presence of HIV gag sequences using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with primers encoding a 109 base pair segment of the viral gene. Amplification succeeded in all patients with clinical and histopathological evidence for HIV encephalopathy but was absent in AIDS patients with opportunistic bacterial, parasitic and/or viral infections. Potential mechanisms by which HIV exerts it's adverse effects on the human CNS are discussed.

Structural and Institutional Determinants of Influence Reputation: A Comparison of Collaborative and Adversarial Policy Networks in Decision Making and Implementation

The central assumption in the literature on collaborative networks and policy networks is that political outcomes are affected by a variety of state and nonstate actors. Some of these actors are more powerful than others and can therefore have a considerable effect on decision making. In this article, we seek to provide a structural and institutional explanation for these power differentials in policy networks and support the explanation with empirical evidence. We use a dyadic measure of influence reputation as a proxy for power, and posit that influence reputation over the political outcome is related to vertical integration into the political system by means of formal decision-making authority, and to horizontal integration by means of being well embedded into the policy network. Hence, we argue that actors are perceived as influential because of two complementary factors: (a) their institutional roles and (b) their structural positions in the policy network. Based on temporal and cross-sectional exponential random graph models, we compare five cases about climate, telecommunications, flood prevention, and toxic chemicals politics in Switzerland and Germany. The five networks cover national and local networks at different stages of the policy cycle. The results confirm that institutional and structural drivers seem to have a crucial impact on how an actor is perceived in decision making and implementation and, therefore, their ability to significantly shape outputs and service delivery.

Mortality in patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America. METHODS AND FINDINGS Data from four South African cohorts in which patients lost to follow-up (LTF) could be linked to the national population register to determine vital status were combined with data from Europe and North America. Cumulative mortality, crude and adjusted (for characteristics at ART initiation) mortality rate ratios (relative to South Africa), and predicted mortality rates were described by region at 0-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24, and 24-48 months on ART for the period 2001-2010. Of the adults included (30,467 [South Africa], 29,727 [Europe], and 7,160 [North America]), 20,306 (67%), 9,961 (34%), and 824 (12%) were women. Patients began treatment with markedly more advanced disease in South Africa (median CD4 count 102, 213, and 172 cells/µl in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively). High early mortality after starting ART in South Africa occurred mainly in patients starting ART with CD4 count <50 cells/µl. Cumulative mortality at 4 years was 16.6%, 4.7%, and 15.3% in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively. Mortality was initially much lower in Europe and North America than South Africa, but the differences were reduced or reversed (North America) at longer durations on ART (adjusted rate ratios 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.58, and 1.62, 95% CI 1.27-2.05 between 24 and 48 months on ART comparing Europe and North America to South Africa). While bias due to under-ascertainment of mortality was minimised through death registry linkage, residual bias could still be present due to differing approaches to and frequency of linkage. CONCLUSIONS After accounting for under-ascertainment of mortality, with increasing duration on ART, the mortality rate on HIV treatment in South Africa declines to levels comparable to or below those described in participating North American cohorts, while substantially narrowing the differential with the European cohorts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

A collaborative study on larval excretory/secretory antigens of Toxocara canis for the immunodiagnosis of human toxocariasis with ELISA.

Two batches of excretory/secretory (E/S) antigens from second stage larvae of Toxocara canis maintained in vitro were prepared independently in two different laboratories (Zürich and Basel) and analysed in order to obtain information for future efforts to standardize the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) used for the serodiagnosis of human toxocariasis. SDS-PAGE and "Western-blotting" revealed at least 10 different antigenic components common to the two antigen preparations. However, distinct qualitative and quantitative differences among the two E/S-antigens were observed, since one antigen had a more complex composition than the other. Despite these differences, an accordance of serodiagnosis was obtained in 80% of 25 sera from patients with suspected Toxocara infection tested independently in two different ELISA systems (Basel and Zürich) with the corresponding E/S-antigens. The specificity was 93% as determined (BS-antigen, BS-ELISA) by testing 46 out of 3396 sera from patients with parasitologically proven extra-intestinal helminthic infections. Cross-reactions occurred mainly with sera from patients infected with filariae (5 from 13 cases) exhibiting very high extinction values in their homologous ELISA-system. The reproducibility (intra- and inter-test variations) of two ELISA systems using the corresponding E/S-antigens varied from 5-15%. The results demonstrate that T. canis E/S-antigens may well be applicable for standardization of the ELISA used for the serodiagnosis of human toxocariasis.