A unification of models for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies

Studies of diagnostic accuracy require more sophisticated methods for their meta-analysis than studies of therapeutic interventions. A number of different, and apparently divergent, methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic studies have been proposed, including two alternative approaches that are statistically rigorous and allow for between-study variability: the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) model (Rutter and Gatsonis, 2001) and bivariate random-effects meta-analysis (van Houwelingen and others, 1993), (van Houwelingen and others, 2002), (Reitsma and others, 2005). We show that these two models are very closely related, and define the circumstances in which they are identical. We discuss the different forms of summary model output suggested by the two approaches, including summary ROC curves, summary points, confidence regions, and prediction regions.

Reduced neuronal efficacy in progressive mild cognitive impairment: a prospective fMRI study on visuospatial processing

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) often refers to the preclinical stage of dementia, where the majority develop Alzheimer's disease (AD). Given that neurodegenerative burden and compensatory mechanisms might exist before accepted clinical symptoms of AD are noticeable, the current prospective study aimed to investigate the functioning of brain regions in the visuospatial networks responsible for preclinical symptoms in AD using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Eighteen MCI patients were evaluated and clinically followed for approximately 3 years. Five progressed to AD (PMCI) and eight remained stable (SMCI). Thirteen age-, gender- and education-matched controls also participated. An angle discrimination task with varying task demands was used. Brain activation patterns as well as task demand-dependent and -independent signal changes between the groups were investigated by using an extended general linear model including individual performance (reaction time [RT]) of each single trial. Similar behavioral (RT and accuracy) responses were observed between MCI patients and controls. A network of bilateral activations, e.g. dorsal pathway, which increased linearly with increasing task demand, was engaged in all subjects. Compared with SMCI patients and controls, PMCI patients showed a stronger relation between task demand and brain activity in left superior parietal lobules (SPL) as well as a general task demand-independent increased activation in left precuneus. Altered brain function can be detected at a group level in individuals that progress to AD before changes occur at the behavioral level. Increased parietal activation in PMCI could reflect a reduced neuronal efficacy due to accumulating AD pathology and might predict future clinical decline in patients with MCI.

Relationship between inflammation and cognitive function in obstructive sleep apnea

OBJECTIVES: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) can have adverse effects on cognitive functioning, mood, and cardiovascular functioning. OSA brings with it disturbances in sleep architecture, oxygenation, sympathetic nervous system function, and inflammatory processes. It is not clear which of these mechanisms is linked to the decrease in cognitive functioning. This study examined the effect of inflammatory parameters on cognitive dysfunction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-nine patients with untreated sleep apnea were evaluated by polysomnography and completed a battery of neuropsychological tests. After the first night of evaluation in the sleep laboratory, blood samples were taken for analysis of interleukin 6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), and soluble TNF receptor 1 (sTNF-R1). RESULTS: sTNF-R1 significantly correlated with cognitive dysfunction. In hierarchical linear regression analysis, measures of obstructive sleep apnea severity explained 5.5% of the variance in cognitive dysfunction (n.s.). After including sTNF-R1, percentage of variance explained by the full model increased more than threefold to 19.6% (F = 2.84, df = 3, 36, p = 0.05). Only sTNF-R1 had a significant individual relationship with cognitive dysfunction (beta = 0.376 t = 2.48, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: sTNF-R1 as a marker of chronic inflammation may be associated with diminished neuropsychological functioning in patients with OSA.

A model of osteoporosis impact in Switzerland 2000-2020

The aim of our study was to develop a modeling framework suitable to quantify the incidence, absolute number and economic impact of osteoporosis-attributable hip, vertebral and distal forearm fractures, with a particular focus on change over time, and with application to the situation in Switzerland from 2000 to 2020. A Markov process model was developed and analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. A demographic scenario provided by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and various Swiss and international data sources were used as model inputs. Demographic and epidemiologic input parameters were reproduced correctly, confirming the internal validity of the model. The proportion of the Swiss population aged 50 years or over will rise from 33.3% in 2000 to 41.3% in 2020. At the total population level, osteoporosis-attributable incidence will rise from 1.16 to 1.54 per 1,000 person-years in the case of hip fracture, from 3.28 to 4.18 per 1,000 person-years in the case of radiographic vertebral fracture, and from 0.59 to 0.70 per 1,000 person-years in the case of distal forearm fracture. Osteoporosis-attributable hip fracture numbers will rise from 8,375 to 11,353, vertebral fracture numbers will rise from 23,584 to 30,883, and distal forearm fracture numbers will rise from 4,209 to 5,186. Population-level osteoporosis-related direct medical inpatient costs per year will rise from 713.4 million Swiss francs (CHF) to CHF946.2 million. These figures correspond to 1.6% and 2.2% of Swiss health care expenditures in 2000. The modeling framework described can be applied to a wide variety of settings. It can be used to assess the impact of new prevention, diagnostic and treatment strategies. In Switzerland incidences of osteoporotic hip, vertebral and distal forearm fracture will rise by 33%, 27%, and 19%, respectively, between 2000 and 2020, if current prevention and treatment patterns are maintained. Corresponding absolute fracture numbers will rise by 36%, 31%, and 23%. Related direct medical inpatient costs are predicted to increase by 33%; however, this estimate is subject to uncertainty due to limited availability of input data.

Knowledge Transfer Processes in the IS Offshore Outsourcing Transition: A Conceptual Model

Despite promising cost saving potential, many offshore software projects fail to realize the expected benefits. A frequent source of failure lies in the insufficient transfer of knowledge during the transition phase. Former literature has reported cases where some domains of knowledge were successfully transferred to vendor personnel whereas others were not. There is further evidence that the actual knowledge transfer processes often vary from case to case. This raises the question whether there is a systematic relationship between the chosen knowledge transfer process and know-ledge transfer success. This paper introduces a dynamic perspective that distinguishes different types of knowledge transfer processes explaining under which circumstances which type is deemed most appropriate to successfully transfer knowledge. Our paper draws on knowledge transfer literature, the Model of Work-Based Learning and theories from cognitive psychology to show how characteristics of know-ledge and the absorptive capacity of knowledge recipients fit particular knowledge transfer processes. The knowledge transfer processes are conceptualized as combinations of generic knowledge transfer activities. This results in six gestalts of know-ledge transfer processes, each representing a fit between the characteristics of the knowledge process and the characteristics of the knowledge to be transferred and the absorptive capacity of the knowledge recipient.

Designed ankyrin repeat proteins: a new approach to mimic complex antigens for diagnostic purposes?

Inhibitory antibodies directed against coagulation factor VIII (FVIII) can be found in patients with acquired and congenital hemophilia A. Such FVIII-inhibiting antibodies are routinely detected by the functional Bethesda Assay. However, this assay has a low sensitivity and shows a high inter-laboratory variability. Another method to detect antibodies recognizing FVIII is ELISA, but this test does not allow the distinction between inhibitory and non-inhibitory antibodies. Therefore, we aimed at replacing the intricate antigen FVIII by Designed Ankyrin Repeat Proteins (DARPins) mimicking the epitopes of FVIII inhibitors. As a model we used the well-described inhibitory human monoclonal anti-FVIII antibody, Bo2C11, for the selection on DARPin libraries. Two DARPins were selected binding to the antigen-binding site of Bo2C11, which mimic thus a functional epitope on FVIII. These DARPins inhibited the binding of the antibody to its antigen and restored FVIII activity as determined in the Bethesda assay. Furthermore, the specific DARPins were able to recognize the target antibody in human plasma and could therefore be used to test for the presence of Bo2C11-like antibodies in a large set of hemophilia A patients. These data suggest, that our approach might be used to isolate epitopes from different sets of anti-FVIII antibodies in order to develop an ELISA-based screening assay allowing the distinction of inhibitory and non-inhibitory anti-FVIII antibodies according to their antibody signatures.

The structure of psychopathological symptoms and the associations with DSM-diagnoses in treatment seeking individuals

BACKGROUND: Research on comorbidity of psychiatric disorders identifies broad superordinate dimensions as underlying structure of psychopathology. While a syndrome-level approach informs diagnostic systems, a symptom-level approach is more likely to represent the dimensional components within existing diagnostic categories. It may capture general emotional, cognitive or physiological processes as underlying liabilities of different disorders and thus further develop dimensional-spectrum models of psychopathology. METHODS: Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to examine the structure of psychopathological symptoms assessed with the Brief Symptom Inventory in two outpatient samples (n=3171), including several correlated-factors and bifactor models. The preferred models were correlated with DSM-diagnoses. RESULTS: A model containing eight correlated factors for depressed mood, phobic fear, aggression, suicidal ideation, nervous tension, somatic symptoms, information processing deficits, and interpersonal insecurity, as well a bifactor model fit the data best. Distinct patterns of correlations with DSM-diagnoses identified a) distress-related disorders, i.e., mood disorders, PTSD, and personality disorders, which were associated with all correlated factors as well as the underlying general distress factor; b) anxiety disorders with more specific patterns of correlations; and c) disorders defined by behavioural or somatic dysfunctions, which were characterised by non-significant or negative correlations with most factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified emotional, somatic, cognitive, and interpersonal components of psychopathology as transdiagnostic psychopathological liabilities. These components can contribute to a more accurate description and taxonomy of psychopathology, may serve as phenotypic constructs for further aetiological research, and can inform the development of tailored general and specific interventions to treat mental disorders.

Does a Pre-Treatment Diagnostic Interview Affect the Outcome of Internet-Based Self-Help for Social Anxiety Disorder? A Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies suggest that Internet-based self-help treatments are effective in treating anxiety disorders. Trials evaluating such interventions differ in their screening procedures and in the amount of clinician contact in the diagnostic assessment phase. The present study evaluates the impact of a pre-treatment diagnostic interview on the outcome of an Internet-based treatment for Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD). METHOD: One hundred and nine participants seeking treatment for SAD were randomized to either an interview-group (IG, N = 53) or to a non-interview group (NIG, N = 56). All participants took part in the same 10-week cognitive-behavioural unguided self-help programme. Before receiving access to the programme, participants of the IG underwent a structured diagnostic interview. Participants of the NIG started directly with the programme. RESULTS: Participants in both groups showed significant and substantial improvement on social anxiety measures from pre- to post-assessment (d IG = 1.30-1.63; d NIG = 1.00-1.28) and from pre- to 4-month follow-up assessment (d IG = 1.38-1.87; d NIG = 1.10-1.21). Significant between-groups effects in favour of the IG were found on secondary outcome measures of depression and general distress (d = 0.18-0.42). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that Internet-based self-help is effective in treating SAD, whether or not a diagnostic interview is involved. However, the pre-treatment interview seems to facilitate change on secondary outcomes such as depression and general distress.

A Stratified Model for Psychosis Prediction in Clinical Practice

Objective: Impaired cognition is an important dimension in psychosis and its at-risk states. Research on the value of impaired cognition for psychosis prediction in at-risk samples, however, mainly relies on study-specific sample means of neurocognitive tests, which unlike widely available general test norms are difficult to translate into clinical practice. The aim of this study was to explore the combined predictive value of at-risk criteria and neurocognitive deficits according to test norms with a risk stratification approach. Method: Potential predictors of psychosis (neurocognitive deficits and at-risk criteria) over 24 months were investigated in 97 at-risk patients. Results: The final prediction model included (1) at-risk criteria (attenuated psychotic symptoms plus subjective cognitive disturbances) and (2) a processing speed deficit (digit symbol test). The model was stratified into 4 risk classes with hazard rates between 0.0 (both predictors absent) and 1.29 (both predictors present). Conclusions: The combination of a processing speed deficit and at-risk criteria provides an optimized stratified risk assessment. Based on neurocognitive test norms, the validity of our proposed 3 risk classes could easily be examined in independent at-risk samples and, pending positive validation results, our approach could easily be applied in clinical practice in the future.

Improved detection of amnestic MCI by means of discriminative vector quantization of single-trial cognitive ERP responses

Cognitive event-related potentials (ERPs) are widely employed in the study of dementive disorders. The morphology of averaged response is known to be under the influence of neurodegenerative processes and exploited for diagnostic purposes. This work is built over the idea that there is additional information in the dynamics of single-trial responses. We introduce a novel way to detect mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from the recordings of auditory ERP responses. Using single trial responses from a cohort of 25 amnestic MCI patients and a group of age-matched controls, we suggest a descriptor capable of encapsulating single-trial (ST) response dynamics for the benefit of early diagnosis. A customized vector quantization (VQ) scheme is first employed to summarize the overall set of ST-responses by means of a small-sized codebook of brain waves that is semantically organized. Each ST-response is then treated as a trajectory that can be encoded as a sequence of code vectors. A subject's set of responses is consequently represented as a histogram of activated code vectors. Discriminating MCI patients from healthy controls is based on the deduced response profiles and carried out by means of a standard machine learning procedure. The novel response representation was found to improve significantly MCI detection with respect to the standard alternative representation obtained via ensemble averaging (13% in terms of sensitivity and 6% in terms of specificity). Hence, the role of cognitive ERPs as biomarker for MCI can be enhanced by adopting the delicate description of our VQ scheme.

Latrepirdine improves cognition and arrests progression of neuropathology in an Alzheimer's mouse model

Latrepirdine (Dimebon) is a pro-neurogenic, antihistaminic compound that has yielded mixed results in clinical trials of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease, with a dramatically positive outcome in a Russian clinical trial that was unconfirmed in a replication trial in the United States. We sought to determine whether latrepirdine (LAT)-stimulated amyloid precursor protein (APP) catabolism is at least partially attributable to regulation of macroautophagy, a highly conserved protein catabolism pathway that is known to be impaired in brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). We utilized several mammalian cellular models to determine whether LAT regulates mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) and Atg5-dependent autophagy. Male TgCRND8 mice were chronically administered LAT prior to behavior analysis in the cued and contextual fear conditioning paradigm, as well as immunohistological and biochemical analysis of AD-related neuropathology. Treatment of cultured mammalian cells with LAT led to enhanced mTOR- and Atg5-dependent autophagy. Latrepirdine treatment of TgCRND8 transgenic mice was associated with improved learning behavior and with a reduction in accumulation of Aβ42 and α-synuclein. We conclude that LAT possesses pro-autophagic properties in addition to the previously reported pro-neurogenic properties, both of which are potentially relevant to the treatment and/or prevention of neurodegenerative diseases. We suggest that elucidation of the molecular mechanism(s) underlying LAT effects on neurogenesis, autophagy and behavior might warranty the further study of LAT as a potentially viable lead compound that might yield more consistent clinical benefit following the optimization of its pro-neurogenic, pro-autophagic and/or pro-cognitive activities.

Dominance of chemokine ligand 2 and matrix metalloproteinase-2 and -9 and suppression of pro-inflammatory cytokines in the epidural compartment after intervertebral disc extrusion in a canine model

BACKGROUND CONTEXT In canine intervertebral disc (IVD) disease, a useful animal model, only little is known about the inflammatory response in the epidural space. PURPOSE To determine messenger RNA (mRNA) expressions of selected cytokines, chemokines, and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) qualitatively and semiquantitatively over the course of the disease and to correlate results to neurologic status and outcome. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING Prospective study using extruded IVD material of dogs with thoracolumbar IVD extrusion. PATIENT SAMPLE Seventy affected and 13 control (24 samples) dogs. OUTCOME MEASURES Duration of neurologic signs, pretreatment, neurologic grade, severity of pain, and outcome were recorded. After diagnostic imaging, decompressive surgery was performed. METHODS Messenger RNA expressions of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interferon (IFN)γ, MMP-2, MMP-9, chemokine ligand (CCL)2, CCL3, and three housekeeping genes was determined in the collected epidural material by Panomics 2.0 QuantiGene Plex technology. Relative mRNA expression and fold changes were calculated. Relative mRNA expression was correlated statistically to clinical parameters. RESULTS Fold changes of TNF, IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IFNγ, and CCL3 were clearly downregulated in all stages of the disease. MMP-9 was downregulated in the acute stage and upregulated in the subacute and chronic phase. Interleukin-8 was upregulated in acute cases. MMP-2 showed mild and CCL2 strong upregulation over the whole course of the disease. In dogs with severe pain, CCL3 and IFNγ were significantly higher compared with dogs without pain (p=.017/.020). Dogs pretreated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs revealed significantly lower mRNA expression of IL-8 (p=.017). CONCLUSIONS The high CCL2 levels and upregulated MMPs combined with downregulated T-cell cytokines and suppressed pro-inflammatory genes in extruded canine disc material indicate that the epidural reaction is dominated by infiltrating monocytes differentiating into macrophages with tissue remodeling functions. These results will help to understand the pathogenic processes representing the basis for novel therapeutic approaches. The canine IVD disease model will be rewarding in this process.

High Resolution Transmission Spectroscopy as a Diagnostic for Jovian Exoplanet Atmospheres: Constraints from Theoretical Models

We present high resolution transmission spectra of giant planet atmospheres from a coupled 3-D atmospheric dynamics and transmission spectrum model that includes Doppler shifts which arise from winds and planetary motion. We model jovian planets covering more than two orders of magnitude in incident flux, corresponding to planets with 0.9 to 55 day orbital periods around solar-type stars. The results of our 3-D dynamical models reveal certain aspects of high resolution transmission spectra that are not present in simple 1-D models. We find that the hottest planets experience strong substellar to anti-stellar (SSAS) winds, resulting in transmission spectra with net blue shifts of up to 3 km s−1, whereas less irradiated planets show almost no net Doppler shifts. Compared to 1-D models, peak line strengths are significantly reduced for the hottest atmospheres owing to Doppler broadening from a combination of rotation (which is faster for close-in planets under the assumption of tidal locking) and atmospheric winds. Finally, high resolution transmission spectra may be useful in studying the atmospheres of exoplanets with optically thick clouds since line cores for very strong transitions should remain optically thick to very high altitude. High resolution transmission spectra are an excellent observational test for the validity of 3-D atmospheric dynamics models, because they provide a direct probe of wind structures and heat circulation. Ground-based exoplanet spectroscopy is currently on the verge of being able to verify some of our modeling predictions, most notably the dependence of SSAS winds on insolation. We caution that interpretation of high resolution transmission spectra based on 1-D atmospheric models may be inadequate, as 3-D atmospheric motions can produce a noticeable effect on the absorption signatures.

From Similes to Allegory: The Deconstruction of Chariot Imagery in Early Buddhist Texts, Analyzed with Cognitive Metaphor Theory

The presentation will start by unfolding the various layers of chariot imagery in early Indian sources, namely, chariots as vehicles of gods such as the sun (sūrya), i.e. as symbol of cosmic stability; chariots as symbols of royal power and social prestige e.g. of Brahmins; and, finally, chariots as metaphors for the “person”, the “mind” and the “way to liberation” (e.g., Kaṭ.-Up. III.3; Maitr.-Up. II. 6). In Buddhist and non-Buddhist sources, chariots are in certain aspects used as a metaphor for the (old) human body (e.g., Caraka-S., Vi.3.37-38; D II.100; D II.107); apart from that, there is, of course, mention of the “real” use of chariots in sports, cults, journey, and combat. The most prominent example of the Buddhist use of chariot imagery is its application as a model for the person (S I.134 f.; Milindapañha, ed. Trenckner, 26), i.e., for highlighting the “non-substantial self”. There are, however, other significant examples of the usage of chariot imagery in early Buddhist texts. Of special interest are those cases in which chariot metaphors were applied in order to explain how the ‘self’ may proceed on the way to salvation – with ‘mindfulness’ or the ‘self’ as charioteer, with ‘wisdom’ and ‘confidence’ as horses etc. (e.g. S I. 33; S V.7; Dhp 94; or the Nārada-Jātaka, No. 545, verses 181-190). One might be tempted to say that these instances reaffirm the traditional soteriology of a substantial “progressing soul”. Taking conceptual metaphor analysis as a tool, I will, in contrast, argue that there is a special Buddhist use of this metaphor. Indeed, at first sight, it seems to presuppose a non-Buddhist understanding (the “self” as charioteer; the chariot as vehicle to liberation, etc.). Yet, it will be argued that in these cases the chariot imagery is no longer fully “functional”. The Buddhist usage may, therefore, best be described as a final allegorical phase of the chariot-imagery, which results in a thorough deconstruction of the “chariot” itself.