The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. Based on energy statistics, we estimate that the global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, 3.0 percent above 2010 levels. We project these emissions will increase by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of Gross World Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. Global net CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change, including deforestation, are more difficult to update annually because of data availability, but combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation and models suggests those net emissions were 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and reached 391.38 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011, increasing 1.70 ± 0.09 ppm yr−1 or 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 in 2011. Estimates from four ocean models suggest that the ocean CO2 sink was 2.6 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, implying a global residual terrestrial CO2 sink of 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

The effect of superiors' exogenous constraints on budget negotiations

In a world characterized by increasing pressure from financial and product markets, the question of how exogenous constraints affect internal coordination and control processes has become increasingly important. This experiment investigates how two exogenous constraints that superiors can face in budget negotiation settings, increased opportunity costs and financial pressure to meet unit targets, affect budget negotiations and subordinate effort. The results show that both constraints induce more cooperation, but in different ways. Financial pressure on the superior leads to more cooperative negotiation behavior by superiors and subordinates than increased opportunity costs. Specifically, subordinates do not take advantage of the superior's increased financial pressure to enforce lower budgets. After negotiation, both constraints strongly mitigate the negative effects of superior budget imposition on subordinate effort because exogenous constraints eliminate the effect of procedural fairness considerations on subordinate effort.

Global carbon budget 2013

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Cosmic-ray exposure ages of pallasites

We analyzed cosmogenic nuclides in metal and/or silicate (primarily olivine) separated from the main-group pallasites Admire, Ahumada, Albin, Brahin, Brenham, Esquel, Finmarken, Glorieta Mountain, Huckitta, Imilac, Krasnojarsk, Marjalahti, Molong, Seymchan, South Bend, Springwater, and Thiel Mountains and from Eagle Station. The metal separates contained an olivine fraction which although small, <1 wt% in most cases, nonetheless contributes significantly to the budgets of some nuclides (e.g., up to 35% for Ne-21 and Al-26). A correction for olivine is therefore essential and was made using model calculations and/or empirical relations for the production rates of cosmogenic nuclides in iron meteoroids and/or measured elemental concentrations. Cosmic-ray exposure (CRE) ages for the metal phases of the main-group pallasites range from 7 to 180 Ma, but many of the ages cluster around a central peak near 100 Ma. These CRE ages suggest that the parent body of the main-group pallasites underwent a major break-up that produced most of the meteorites analyzed. The CRE age distribution for the pallasites overlaps only a small fraction of the distribution for the IIIAB iron meteorites. Most pallasites and IIIAB irons originated in different collisions, probably on different parent bodies; a few IIIABs and pallasites may have come out of the same collision but a firm conclusion requires further study. CRE ages calculated from noble gas and radionuclide data of the metal fraction are higher on average than the Ne-21 exposure ages obtained for the olivine samples. As the metal and olivine fractions were taken in most cases from different specimens, the depth-dependency of the production rate ratio Be-10/Ne-21 in metal, not accounted for in our calculations, may explain the difference.