Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

The block numerical range of analytic operator functions

We introduce the block numerical range Wn(L) of an operator function L with respect to a decomposition H = H1⊕. . .⊕Hn of the underlying Hilbert space. Our main results include the spectral inclusion property and estimates of the norm of the resolvent for analytic L . They generalise, and improve, the corresponding results for the numerical range (which is the case n = 1) since the block numerical range is contained in, and may be much smaller than, the usual numerical range. We show that refinements of the decomposition entail inclusions between the corresponding block numerical ranges and that the block numerical range of the operator matrix function L contains those of its principal subminors. For the special case of operator polynomials, we investigate the boundedness of Wn(L) and we prove a Perron-Frobenius type result for the block numerical radius of monic operator polynomials with coefficients that are positive in Hilbert lattice sense.

The Martian Gas-Analytic Package for the Landing Platform Experiments of the ExoMars 2018

The paper describes the architecture of the Martian Gas Analytic Package, which is proposed for the Russian ExoMars Lander 2018.

Analytic validation of a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry method for quantification of six amino acids in canine serum samples.

OBJECTIVE To analytically validate a gas concentration of chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) method for measurement of 6 amino acids in canine serum samples and to assess the stability of each amino acid after sample storage. SAMPLES Surplus serum from 80 canine samples submitted to the Gastrointestinal Laboratory at Texas A&M University and serum samples from 12 healthy dogs. PROCEDURES GC-MS was validated to determine precision, reproducibility, limit of detection, and percentage recovery of known added concentrations of 6 amino acids in surplus serum samples. Amino acid concentrations in serum samples from healthy dogs were measured before (baseline) and after storage in various conditions. RESULTS Intra- and interassay coefficients of variation (10 replicates involving 12 pooled serum samples) were 13.4% and 16.6% for glycine, 9.3% and 12.4% for glutamic acid, 5.1% and 6.3% for methionine, 14.0% and 15.1% for tryptophan, 6.2% and 11.0% for tyrosine, and 7.4% and 12.4% for lysine, respectively. Observed-to-expected concentration ratios in dilutional parallelism tests (6 replicates involving 6 pooled serum samples) were 79.5% to 111.5% for glycine, 80.9% to 123.0% for glutamic acid, 77.8% to 111.0% for methionine, 85.2% to 98.0% for tryptophan, 79.4% to 115.0% for tyrosine, and 79.4% to 110.0% for lysine. No amino acid concentration changed significantly from baseline after serum sample storage at -80°C for ≤ 7 days. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE GC-MS measurement of concentration of 6 amino acids in canine serum samples yielded precise, accurate, and reproducible results. Sample storage at -80°C for 1 week had no effect on GC-MS results.

Vitamin D Deficiency and Depressive Symptomatology in Psychiatric Patients Hospitalized with a Current Depressive Episode: A Factor Analytic Study.

BACKGROUND Low vitamin D levels have been associated with depressive symptoms in population-based studies and non-clinical samples as well as with clinical depression. This study aimed to examine the association of vitamin D levels with the severity and dimensions of depressive symptoms in hospitalized patients with a current episode of depression taking into account confounding variables. METHODS We investigated 380 patients (mean age 47 ± 12 years, 70% women) who were consecutively hospitalized with a main diagnosis of an ICD-10 depressive episode. All patients self-rated depressive symptom severity with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D), the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II), and the Brief Symptom Inventory. A principal component analysis was performed with all 34 items of these questionnaires and serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH D) were measured. RESULTS Vitamin D deficiency (< 50 nmol/l), insufficiency (50-75 nmol/l), and sufficiency (> 75 nmol/l) were present in 55.5%, 31.8% and 12.6%, respectively, of patients. Patients with vitamin D deficiency scored higher on the HADS-D scale and on an anhedonia symptom factor than those with insufficient (p-values ≤ 0.023) or sufficient (p-values ≤ 0.008) vitamin D. Vitamin D deficient patients also scored higher on the BDI-II scale than those with sufficient vitamin D (p = 0.007); BDI-II cognitive/affective symptoms, but not somatic/affective symptoms, were higher in patients with vitamin D deficiency (p = 0.005) and insufficiency (p = 0.041) relative to those with sufficient vitamin D. Effect sizes suggested clinically relevant findings. CONCLUSIONS Low vitamin D levels are frequent in hospitalized patients with a current episode of depression. Especially 25-OH D levels < 50 nmol/l were associated with cognitive/affective depressive symptoms, and anhedonia symptoms in particular.