Implementing fisher Black's simple discounting rule

We propose a simple implementation of Black’s (1988) elegant rule for discounting uncertain future cash flows. Black’s rule avoids the thorny problem of estimating an appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate. Instead, the rule calls for discounting conditional mean cash flows at appropriate riskless interest rates. Our contribution in this article is to describe and illustrate a method of estimating the conditional mean cash flows called for in Black’s rule. The method is quite flexible with respect to the types of information available concerning the distributions of future cash flows. We argue that this approach to computing present values offers a theoretically sound and generally feasible addition to the toolbox of financial managers.

The von Mises-Fisher distribution of the first exit point from the hypersphere of the drifted Brownian motion and the density of the first exit time

A characterization is provided for the von Mises–Fisher random variable, in terms of first exit point from the unit hypersphere of the drifted Wiener process. Laplace transform formulae for the first exit time from the unit hypersphere of the drifted Wiener process are provided. Post representations in terms of Bell polynomials are provided for the densities of the first exit times from the circle and from the sphere.

FGFR3 expression in primary invasive bladder cancers and matched lymph node metastases

PURPOSE FGFR3 is considered a good therapeutic target for bladder cancer. However, to our knowledge it is unknown whether the FGFR3 status of primary tumors is a surrogate for related metastases, which must be targeted by FGFR targeted systemic therapies. We assessed FGFR3 protein expression in primary bladder tumors and matched nodal metastases. MATERIALS AND METHODS We examined matched primary tumor and nodal metastases from 150 patients with bladder cancer clinically staged as N0M0. Four samples per patient were incorporated into a tissue microarray and FGFR3 expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry. FGFR3 expression was tested for an association with categorical clinical data using the Fisher exact test, and with overall and recurrence-free survival by Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS Duplicate spots from primary tumors and lymph node metastases were highly concordant (OR 8.6 and 16.7, respectively, each p <0.001). Overall FGFR protein expression levels did not differ between primary and metastatic lesions (p = 0.78). Up-regulated expression was recorded in 53 of 106 evaluable primary tumor spots and 56 matched metastases. Concordance of FGFR3 expression levels in 79 matched primary tumor and metastasis specimens was high (OR 8.45, p <0.001). In 15 and 12 patients expression was up-regulated in only metastasis and in only the primary tumor, respectively. Overall and recurrence-free survival was not related to FGFR3 expression. CONCLUSIONS FGFR3 expression in matched primary and metastasized bladder cancer specimens showed good but not absolute concordance. Thus, in most patients primary tumor FGFR3 status can guide the selection of FGFR targeted therapy.

Saving the Australian War Effort in 1916? The Significance and Impact of Global Climatic Conditions and Pests on William Morris Hughes’ Negotiations with the British Government

Taking up the thesis of Dipesh Chakrabarty (2009) that human history (including cultural history) on the one hand and natural history on the other must be brought into conversation more than has been done so in the past, this presentation will focus more closely on the significance and the impact of global climatic conditions and pests on the negotiations that Australian Prime Minister William Morris Hughes carried on with the British government between March and November 1916. Whereas Australia had been able to sell most of its produce in 1914 and 1915 the situation looked more serious in 1916, not least due to the growing shortage in shipping. It was therefore imperative for the Australian government to find a way to solve this problem, not least because it wanted to keep up its own war effort at the pace it had been going so far. In this context intentions to make or press ahead with a contribution to a war perceived to be more total those of the past interacted with natural phenomena such as the declining harvest in many parts of the world in 1916 as a consequence of climatic conditions as well as pests in many parts of the world.