Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations

We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20 year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of −0.08°C (−0.13°C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called “global dimming” period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

Petrogenesis of rift-related tephrites, phonolites and trachytes (Central European Volcanic Province, Rhon, FRG): Constraints from Sr, Nd, Pb and O isotopes

The volcanic rocks of the Rhön area (Central European Volcanic Province, Germany) belong to a moderately alkali basaltic suite that is associated with minor tephriphonolites, phonotephrites, tephrites, phonolites and trachytes. Based on isotope sytematics (87Sr/86Sr: 0.7033–0.7042; 143Nd/144Nd: 0.51279–0.51287; 206Pb/204Pb: 19.1–19.5), the inferred parental magmas formed by variable degrees of partial melting of a common asthenospheric mantle source (EAR: European Asthenospheric Reservoir of Cebriá and Wilson, 1995). Tephrites, tephriphonolites, phonotephrites, phonolites and trachytes show depletions and enrichments in some trace elements (Sr, Ba, Nb, Zr, Y) indicating that they were generated by broadly similar differentiation processes that were dominated by fractionation of olivine, clinopyroxene, amphibole, apatite and titaniferous magnetite ± plagioclase ± alkalifeldspar. The fractionated samples seem to have evolved by two distinct processes. One is characterized by pure fractional crystallization indicated by increasing Nb (and other incompatible trace element) concentrations at virtually constant 143Nd/144Nd ~ 0.51280 and 87Sr/86Sr ~ 0.7035. The other process involved an assimilation–fractional crystallization (AFC) process where moderate assimilation to crystallization rates produced evolved magmas characterized by higher Nb concentrations at slightly lower 143Nd/144Nd down to 0.51275. Literature data for some of the evolved rocks show more variable 87Sr/86Sr ranging from 0.7037 to 0.7089 at constant 143Nd/144Nd ~ 0.51280. These features may result from assimilation of upper crustal rocks by highly differentiated low-Sr (< 100 ppm Sr) lavas. However, based on the displacement of the differentiated rocks from this study towards lower 143Nd/144Nd ratios and modeled AFC processes in 143Nd/144Nd vs. 87Sr/86Sr and 207Pb/204Pb vs. 143Nd/144Nd space assimilation of lower crustal rocks seems more likely. The view that assimilation of lower crustal rocks played a role is confirmed by high-precision double-spike Pb isotope data that reveal higher 207Pb/204Pb ratios (15.62–15.63) in the differentiated rocks than in the primitive basanites (15.58–15.61). This is compatible with incorporation of radiogenic Pb from lower crustal xenoliths (207Pb/204Pb: 15.63–15.69) into the melt. However, 206Pb/204Pb ratios are similar for the differentiated rocks (19.13–19.35) and the primitive basanites (19.12–19.55) implying that assimilation involved an ancient crustal end member with a higher U/Pb ratio than the mantle source of the basanites. In addition, alteration-corrected δ18O values of the differentiated rocks range from c. 5 to 7‰ which is the same range as observed in the primitive alkaline rocks. This study confirms previous interpretations that highlighted the role of AFC processes in the evolution of alkaline volcanic rocks in the Rhön area of the Central European Volcanic Province.

Northern hemispheric winter warming pattern after tropical volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to the ozone climatology

An important key for the understanding of the dynamic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions is the warming of the tropical lower stratosphere and the concomitant intensification of the polar vortices. Although this mechanism is reproduced by most general circulation models today, most models still fail in producing an appropriate winter warming pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study ensemble sensitivity experiments were carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the influence of different ozone climatologies on the atmospheric dynamics and in particular on the northern hemispheric winter warming. The ensemble experiments were perturbed by a single Tambora-like eruption. Larger meridional gradients in the lower stratospheric ozone favor the coupling of zonal wind anomalies between the stratosphere and the troposphere after the eruption. The associated sea level pressure, temperature, and precipitation patterns are more pronounced and the northern hemispheric winter warming is highly significant. Conversely, weaker meridional ozone gradients lead to a weaker response of the winter warming and the associated patterns. The differences in the number of stratosphere-troposphere coupling events between the ensembles experiments indicate a nonlinear response behavior of the dynamics with respect to the ozone and the volcanic forcing.

The history of subaquatic volcanism recorded in the sediments of Lake Kivu

Subaquatic volcanic activity has been ongoing in Lake Kivu since the early Holocene and has a dynamic effect on the biological productivity in the surface water, and the preservation of carbonate in the deep anoxic water. Groundwater discharge into the lake’s deepwater propels the upward advection of the water column that ultimately supplies nutrients to the surface water for biological production. The amount of nutrients supplied from the deepwater can be increased suddenly by (1) a cold meteorological event that drives deep seasonal mixing resulting in increased nutrients from below and oxygen from above, or (2) subaquatic volcanic activity that induces a buoyant hydrothermal plume, which entrains nutrients from the deepwater and results in anoxia or suboxic conditions in the surface water. Previous sedimentological studies in Lake Kivu have hypothesized that regional climatic changes are responsible for sudden changes in the preservation of carbonates in the Main Basin. Here we reveal that sublacustrine volcanic events most likely induce the abrupt changes to the geochemistry in the sediment in Lake Kivu. An unprecedented look into the sediment stratigraphy and geochemistry from high-resolution seismic-reflection, and 15N-isotope analyses was conducted in the Main Basin. The results reveal that buoyant hydrothermal plumes caused by subaquatic volcanic activity are a possible trigger for increased biological productivity and organic matter preservation, and that ongoing hydrothermal activity increases the alkalinity in the deepwater, leading to carbonate preservation. The onset of carbonate preservation since the 1970s that is currently observed in the sediment could indicate that hydrothermal discharge has recently increased in the lake.

Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.

European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries

The drop in temperature following large volcanic eruptions has been identified as an important component of natural climate variability. However, due to the limited number of large eruptions that occurred during the period of instrumental observations, the precise amplitude of post-volcanic cooling is not well constrained. Here we present new evidence on summer temperature cooling over Europe in years following volcanic eruptions. We compile and analyze an updated network of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies, spanning the past nine centuries, and compare cooling signatures in this network with exceptionally long instrumental station records and state-of-the-art general circulation models. Results indicate post-volcanic June–August cooling is strongest in Northern Europe 2 years after an eruption (−0.52 ± 0.05 °C), whereas in Central Europe the temperature response is smaller and occurs 1 year after an eruption (−0.18 ± 0.07 °C). We validate these estimates by comparison with the shorter instrumental network and evaluate the statistical significance of post-volcanic summer temperature cooling in the context of natural climate variability over the past nine centuries. Finding no significant post-volcanic temperature cooling lasting longer than 2 years, our results question the ability of large eruptions to initiate long-term temperature changes through feedback mechanisms in the climate system. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to the response seen in general circulation models and emphasize the importance of considering well-documented, annually dated eruptions when assessing the significance of volcanic forcing on continental-scale temperature variations.

Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present

As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now linked not only to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for general circulation model (GCM) and chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600–present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions show reasonable agreement with observations. By providing these new estimates of spatial distributions of shortwave and long-wave radiative perturbations, this volcanic forcing may help to better constrain the climate model responses to volcanic eruptions in the 1600–present period. The final data set consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

Volcanic Influence on European Summer Precipitation through Monsoons: Possible Cause for “Years without Summer”*

Strong tropical volcanic eruptions have significant effects on global and regional temperatures. Their effects on precipitation, however, are less well understood. Analyzing hydroclimatic anomalies after 14 strong eruptions during the last 400 years in climate reconstructions and model simulations, a reduction of the Asian and African summer monsoons and an increase of south-central European summer precipitation in the year following the eruption was found. The simulations provide evidence for a dynamical link between these phenomena. The weaker monsoon circulations weaken the northern branch of the Hadley circulation, alter the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic–European sector, and increase precipitation over Europe. This mechanism is able to explain, for instance, the wet summer in parts of Europe during the “year without a summer” of 1816, which up to now has not been explained. This study underlines the importance of atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and midlatitudes to better understand the regional climate response to stratospheric volcanic aerosols.