Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

Long-term outcomes and prognostic factors of skull-base chondrosarcoma patients treated with pencil-beam scanning proton therapy at the Paul Scherrer Institute

BACKGROUND Skull-base chondrosarcoma (ChSa) is a rare disease, and the prognostication of this disease entity is ill defined. METHODS We assessed the long-term local control (LC) results, overall survival (OS), and prognostic factors of skull-base ChSa patients treated with pencil beam scanning proton therapy (PBS PT). Seventy-seven (male, 35; 46%) patients with histologically confirmed ChSa were treated at the Paul Scherrer Institute. Median age was 38.9 years (range, 10.2-70.0y). Median delivered dose was 70.0 GyRBE (range, 64.0-76.0 GyRBE). LC, OS, and toxicity-free survival (TFS) rates were calculated using the Kaplan Meier method. RESULTS After a mean follow-up of 69.2 months (range, 4.6-190.8 mo), 6 local (7.8%) failures were observed, 2 of which were late failures. Five (6.5%) patients died. The actuarial 8-year LC and OS were 89.7% and 93.5%, respectively. Tumor volume > 25 cm(3) (P = .02), brainstem/optic apparatus compression at the time of PT (P = .04) and age >30 years (P = .08) were associated with lower rates of LC. High-grade (≥3) radiation-induced toxicity was observed in 6 (7.8%) patients. The 8-year high-grade TFS was 90.8%. A higher rate of high-grade toxicity was observed for older patients (P = .073), those with larger tumor volume (P = .069), and those treated with 5 weekly fractions (P = .069). CONCLUSIONS This is the largest PT series reporting the outcome of patients with low-grade ChSa of the skull base treated with PBS only. Our data indicate that protons are both safe and effective. Tumor volume, brainstem/optic apparatus compression, and age were prognosticators of local failures.

Pencil Beam Scanning Proton Therapy for Pediatric Parameningeal Rhabdomyosarcomas: Clinical Outcome of Patients Treated at the Paul Scherrer Institute

BACKGROUND Parameningeal rhabdomyosarcomas (PM-RMSs) represent approximately 25% of all rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) cases. These tumors are associated with early recurrence and poor prognosis. This study assessed the clinical outcome and late toxicity of pencil beam scanning (PBS) proton therapy (PT) in the treatment of children with PM-RMS. PROCEDURES Thirty-nine children with PM-RMS received neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by PBS-PT at the Paul Scherrer Institute, with concomitant chemotherapy. The median age was 5.8 years (range, 1.2-16.1). Due to young age, 25 patients (64%) required general anesthesia during PT. The median time from the start of chemotherapy to PT was 13 weeks (range, 3-23 weeks). Median prescription dose was 54 Gy (relative biologic effectiveness, RBE). RESULTS With a mean follow-up of 41 months (range, 9-106 months), 10 patients failed. The actuarial 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 72% (95% CI, 67-94%) and the 5-year overall survival was 73% (95% CI, 69-96%). On univariate analysis, a delay in the initiation of PT (>13 weeks) was a significant detrimental factor for PFS. Three (8%) patients presented with grade 3 radiation-induced toxicity. The estimated actuarial 5-year toxicity ≥grade 3 free survival was 95% (95% CI, 94-96%). CONCLUSIONS Our data contribute to the growing body of evidence demonstrating the safety and effectiveness of PT for pediatric patients with PM-RMS. These preliminary results are encouraging and in line with other combined proton-photon and photons series; observed toxicity was acceptable.

Prognostic markers in lentigo maligna patients treated with imiquimod cream: A long-term follow-up study.

BACKGROUND More data are needed to define factors that predict long-term success after imiquimod therapy for lentigo maligna (LM). OBJECTIVE We sought to determine the demographic, clinical, and histologic prognostic markers of relapse-free survival in patients with LM who were treated with imiquimod. METHODS This was a single-arm, open-label, nonrandomized, prospective study. RESULTS Eighty-nine patients with histologically confirmed LM and a median follow-up time of 4.8 years after imiquimod treatment were included in our study. Sixteen patients (18%) relapsed. Statistically significant indicators of an increased risk of local recurrence included: the total number of melanocytes, the number of basal and suprabasal melanocytes and the number of pagetoid spreading melanocytes. LIMITATIONS Our study was a single-center, nonrandomized study. CONCLUSION An assessment of different melanocyte fractions in the diagnostic baseline biopsy specimen may help to predict the response of LM to imiquimod therapy.

AsaGEI2b: a new variant of a genomic island identified in the Aeromonas salmonicida subsp. salmonicida JF3224 strain isolated from a wild fish in Switzerland.

Aeromonas salmonicida subsp. salmonicida is the causal agent of furunculosis in salmonids. We recently identified a group of genomic islands (AsaGEI) in this bacterium. AsaGEI2a, one of these genomic islands, has almost exclusively been identified in isolates from North America. To date, Aeromonas salmonicida subsp. salmonicida JF3224, a strain isolated from a wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) caught in Switzerland, was the only European isolate that appeared to bear AsaGEI2a. We analyzed the genome of JF3224 and showed that the genomic island in JF3224 is a new variant of AsaGEI, which we have called AsaGEI2b. While AsaGEI2b shares the same integrase gene and insertion site as AsaGEI2a, it is very different in terms of many other features. Additional genomic investigations combined with PCR genotyping revealed that JF3224 is sensitive to growth at 25°C, leading to insertion sequence-dependent rearrangement of the locus on the pAsa5 plasmid that encodes a type three secretion system, which is essential for the virulence of the bacterium. The analysis of the JF3224 genome confirmed that AsaGEIs are accurate indicators of the geographic origins of A. salmonicida subsp. salmonicida isolates and is another example of the susceptibility of the pAsa5 plasmid to DNA rearrangements.

Phenotype and genotype in 103 patients with tricho-rhino-phalangeal syndrome.

Tricho-rhino-phalangeal syndrome (TRPS) is characterized by craniofacial and skeletal abnormalities, and subdivided in TRPS I, caused by mutations in TRPS1, and TRPS II, caused by a contiguous gene deletion affecting (amongst others) TRPS1 and EXT1. We performed a collaborative international study to delineate phenotype, natural history, variability, and genotype-phenotype correlations in more detail. We gathered information on 103 cytogenetically or molecularly confirmed affected individuals. TRPS I was present in 85 individuals (22 missense mutations, 62 other mutations), TRPS II in 14, and in 5 it remained uncertain whether TRPS1 was partially or completely deleted. Main features defining the facial phenotype include fine and sparse hair, thick and broad eyebrows, especially the medial portion, a broad nasal ridge and tip, underdeveloped nasal alae, and a broad columella. The facial manifestations in patients with TRPS I and TRPS II do not show a significant difference. In the limbs the main findings are short hands and feet, hypermobility, and a tendency for isolated metacarpals and metatarsals to be shortened. Nails of fingers and toes are typically thin and dystrophic. The radiological hallmark are the cone-shaped epiphyses and in TRPS II multiple exostoses. Osteopenia is common in both, as is reduced linear growth, both prenatally and postnatally. Variability for all findings, also within a single family, can be marked. Morbidity mostly concerns joint problems, manifesting in increased or decreased mobility, pain and in a minority an increased fracture rate. The hips can be markedly affected at a (very) young age. Intellectual disability is uncommon in TRPS I and, if present, usually mild. In TRPS II intellectual disability is present in most but not all, and again typically mild to moderate in severity. Missense mutations are located exclusively in exon 6 and 7 of TRPS1. Other mutations are located anywhere in exons 4-7. Whole gene deletions are common but have variable breakpoints. Most of the phenotype in patients with TRPS II is explained by the deletion of TRPS1 and EXT1, but haploinsufficiency of RAD21 is also likely to contribute. Genotype-phenotype studies showed that mutations located in exon 6 may have somewhat more pronounced facial characteristics and more marked shortening of hands and feet compared to mutations located elsewhere in TRPS1, but numbers are too small to allow firm conclusions.

Robustness of the Voluntary Breath-Hold Approach for the Treatment of Peripheral Lung Tumors Using Hypofractionated Pencil Beam Scanning Proton Therapy.

PURPOSE The safe clinical implementation of pencil beam scanning (PBS) proton therapy for lung tumors is complicated by the delivery uncertainties caused by breathing motion. The purpose of this feasibility study was to investigate whether a voluntary breath-hold technique could limit the delivery uncertainties resulting from interfractional motion. METHODS AND MATERIALS Data from 15 patients with peripheral lung tumors previously treated with stereotactic radiation therapy were included in this study. The patients had 1 computed tomographic (CT) scan in voluntary breath-hold acquired before treatment and 3 scans during the treatment course. PBS proton treatment plans with 2 fields (2F) and 3 fields (3F), respectively, were calculated based on the planning CT scan and subsequently recalculated on the 3 repeated CT scans. Recalculated plans were considered robust if the V95% (volume receiving ≥95% of the prescribed dose) of the gross target volume (GTV) was within 5% of what was expected from the planning CT data throughout the simulated treatment. RESULTS A total of 14/15 simulated treatments for both 2F and 3F met the robustness criteria. Reduced V95% was associated with baseline shifts (2F, P=.056; 3F, P=.008) and tumor size (2F, P=.025; 3F, P=.025). Smaller tumors with large baseline shifts were also at risk for reduced V95% (interaction term baseline/size: 2F, P=.005; 3F, P=.002). CONCLUSIONS The breath-hold approach is a realistic clinical option for treating lung tumors with PBS proton therapy. Potential risk factors for reduced V95% are small targets in combination with large baseline shifts. On the basis of these results, the baseline shift of the tumor should be monitored (eg, through image guided therapy), and appropriate measures should be taken accordingly. The intrafractional motion needs to be investigated to confirm that the breath-hold approach is robust.

Improving 4D plan quality for PBS-based liver tumour treatments by combining online image guided beam gating with rescanning.

Pencil beam scanned (PBS) proton therapy has many advantages over conventional radiotherapy, but its effectiveness for treating mobile tumours remains questionable. Gating dose delivery to the breathing pattern is a well-developed method in conventional radiotherapy for mitigating tumour-motion, but its clinical efficiency for PBS proton therapy is not yet well documented. In this study, the dosimetric benefits and the treatment efficiency of beam gating for PBS proton therapy has been comprehensively evaluated. A series of dedicated 4D dose calculations (4DDC) have been performed on 9 different 4DCT(MRI) liver data sets, which give realistic 4DCT extracting motion information from 4DMRI. The value of 4DCT(MRI) is its capability of providing not only patient geometries and deformable breathing characteristics, but also includes variations in the breathing patterns between breathing cycles. In order to monitor target motion and derive a gating signal, we simulate time-resolved beams' eye view (BEV) x-ray images as an online motion surrogate. 4DDCs have been performed using three amplitude-based gating window sizes (10/5/3 mm) with motion surrogates derived from either pre-implanted fiducial markers or the diaphragm. In addition, gating has also been simulated in combination with up to 19 times rescanning using either volumetric or layered approaches. The quality of the resulting 4DDC plans has been quantified in terms of the plan homogeneity index (HI), total treatment time and duty cycle. Results show that neither beam gating nor rescanning alone can fully retrieve the plan homogeneity of the static reference plan. Especially for variable breathing patterns, reductions of the effective duty cycle to as low as 10% have been observed with the smallest gating rescanning window (3 mm), implying that gating on its own for such cases would result in much longer treatment times. In addition, when rescanning is applied on its own, large differences between volumetric and layered rescanning have been observed as a function of increasing number of re-scans. However, once gating and rescanning is combined, HI to within 2% of the static plan could be achieved in the clinical target volume, with only moderately prolonged treatment times, irrespective of the rescanning strategy used. Moreover, these results are independent of the motion surrogate used. In conclusion, our results suggest image guided beam gating, combined with rescanning, is a feasible, effective and efficient motion mitigation approach for PBS-based liver tumour treatments.

Dose-painting intensity-modulated proton therapy for intermediate- and high-risk meningioma.

BACKGROUND Newly diagnosed WHO grade II-III or any WHO grade recurrent meningioma exhibit an aggressive behavior and thus are considered as high- or intermediate risk tumors. Given the unsatisfactory rates of disease control and survival after primary or adjuvant radiation therapy, optimization of treatment strategies is needed. We investigated the potential of dose-painting intensity-modulated proton beam-therapy (IMPT) for intermediate- and high-risk meningioma. MATERIAL AND METHODS Imaging data from five patients undergoing proton beam-therapy were used. The dose-painting target was defined using [68]Ga-[1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane tetraacetic acid]- d-Phe(1),Tyr(3)-octreotate ([68]Ga-DOTATATE)-positron emission tomography (PET) in target delineation. IMPT and photon intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatment plans were generated for each patient using an in-house developed treatment planning system (TPS) supporting spot-scanning technology and a commercial TPS, respectively. Doses of 66 Gy (2.2 Gy/fraction) and 54 Gy (1.8 Gy/fraction) were prescribed to the PET-based planning target volume (PTVPET) and the union of PET- and anatomical imaging-based PTV, respectively, in 30 fractions, using simultaneous integrated boost. RESULTS Dose coverage of the PTVsPET was equally good or slightly better in IMPT plans: dose inhomogeneity was 10 ± 3% in the IMPT plans vs. 13 ± 1% in the IMRT plans (p = 0.33). The brain Dmean and brainstem D50 were small in the IMPT plans: 26.5 ± 1.5 Gy(RBE) and 0.002 ± 0.0 Gy(RBE), respectively, vs. 29.5 ± 1.5 Gy (p = 0.001) and 7.5 ± 11.1 Gy (p = 0.02) for the IMRT plans, respectively. The doses delivered to the optic structures were also decreased with IMPT. CONCLUSIONS Dose-painting IMPT is technically feasible using currently available planning tools and resulted in dose conformity of the dose-painted target comparable to IMRT with a significant reduction of radiation dose delivered to the brain, brainstem and optic apparatus. Dose escalation with IMPT may improve tumor control and decrease radiation-induced toxicity.

Novel multiple sclerosis susceptibility loci implicated in epigenetic regulation.

We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility in German cohorts with 4888 cases and 10,395 controls. In addition to associations within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region, 15 non-MHC loci reached genome-wide significance. Four of these loci are novel MS susceptibility loci. They map to the genes L3MBTL3, MAZ, ERG, and SHMT1. The lead variant at SHMT1 was replicated in an independent Sardinian cohort. Products of the genes L3MBTL3, MAZ, and ERG play important roles in immune cell regulation. SHMT1 encodes a serine hydroxymethyltransferase catalyzing the transfer of a carbon unit to the folate cycle. This reaction is required for regulation of methylation homeostasis, which is important for establishment and maintenance of epigenetic signatures. Our GWAS approach in a defined population with limited genetic substructure detected associations not found in larger, more heterogeneous cohorts, thus providing new clues regarding MS pathogenesis.