A longitudinal study on delirium in nursing homes

OBJECTIVE To investigate the evolution of delirium of nursing home (NH) residents and their possible predictors. DESIGN Post-hoc analysis of a prospective cohort assessment. SETTING Ninety NHs in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS Included 14,771 NH residents. MEASUREMENTS The Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set and the Nursing Home Confusion Assessment Method were used to determine follow-up of subsyndromal or full delirium in NH residents using discrete Markov chain modeling to describe long-term trajectories and multiple logistic regression analyses to determine predictors of the trajectories. RESULTS We identified four major types of delirium time courses in NH. Increasing severity of cognitive impairment and of depressive symptoms at the initial assessment predicted the different delirium time courses. CONCLUSION More pronounced cognitive impairment and depressive symptoms at the initial assessment are associated with different subsequent evolutions of delirium. The presence and evolution of delirium in the first year after NH admission predicted the subsequent course of delirium until death.

Synoptic Analysis of the New York March 1888 Blizzard

The meteorological circumstances that led to the Blizzard of March 1888 that hit New York are analysed in Version 2 of the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR). The potential of this data set for studying historical extreme events has not yet been fully explored. A detailed analysis of 20CR data alongside other data sources (including historical instrumental data and weather maps) for historical extremes such as the March 1888 blizzard may give insights into the limitations of 20CR. We find that 20CR reproduces the circulation pattern as well as the temperature development very well. Regarding the absolute values of variables such as snow fall or minimum and maximum surface pressure, there is anunderestimation of the observed extremes, which may be due to the low spatial resolution of 20CR and the fact that only the ensemble mean is considered. Despite this drawback, the dataset allows us to gain new information due to its complete spatial and temporal coverage.

Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU). The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010), which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

Description of the ERA-CLIM historical upper-air data

Historical, i.e. pre-1957, upper-air data are a valuable source of information on the state of the atmosphere, in some parts of the world dating back to the early 20th century. However, to date, reanalyses have only partially made use of these data, and only of observations made after 1948. Even for the period between 1948 (the starting year of the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis) and the International Geophysical Year in 1957 (the starting year of the ERA-40 reanalysis), when the global upper-air coverage reached more or less its current status, many observations have not yet been digitised. The Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network (CHUAN) already compiled a large collection of pre-1957 upper-air data. In the framework of the European project ERA-CLIM (European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations), significant amounts of additional upper-air data have been catalogued (> 1.3 million station days), imaged (> 200 000 images) and digitised (> 700 000 station days) in order to prepare a new input data set for upcoming reanalyses. The records cover large parts of the globe, focussing on, so far, less well covered regions such as the tropics, the polar regions and the oceans, and on very early upper-air data from Europe and the US. The total number of digitised/inventoried records is 61/101 for moving upper-air data, i.e. data from ships, etc., and 735/1783 for fixed upper-air stations. Here, we give a detailed description of the resulting data set including the metadata and the quality checking procedures applied. The data will be included in the next version of CHUAN. The data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.821222

No sports – no mental health? Analysis of longitudinal effects in SHP data.

Results from the Zurich study have shown lasting associations between sport practice and mental health. The effects are pronounced in people with pre-exising mental health problems. This analysis aims to replicate these results with the large Swiss Household Panel data set and to provide more differentiated results. The analysis covered the interviews 1999-2003 and included 3891 stayers, i.e., participants who were interviewed in all years. The outcome variables are depression / blues / anxiety, weakness / weariness, sleeping problems, energy / optimism. Confounding variables include sex, age, education level, citizenship. The analyses were carried out with mixed models (depression, optimism) and GEE models (weakness, sleep). About 60% of the SHP participants practise weekly or daily an individual or a team sport. A similar proportion enjoys a frequent physical activity (for half an hour minimum) which makes oneself slightly breathless. There are slight age-specific differences but also noteworthy regional differences. Practice of sport is clearly interrelated with self-reported depressive symptoms, optimism and weakness. This applies even though some relevant confounders – sex, educational level and citizenship – were introduced into the model. However, no relevant interaction effects with time could be shown. Moreover, direct interrelations commonly led to better fits than models with lagged variables, thus indicating that delayed effects of sport practice on the self-reported psychological complaints are less important. Model variants resulted for specific subgroups, for example, participants with a high vs. low initial activity level. Lack of sport practice is an interesting marker for serious psychological symptoms and mental disorders. The background of this association may differ in different subgroups, and should stimulate further investigations in this area.

Statistical shape modeling of pathological scoliotic vertebrae: A comparative analysis

Statistical shape models (SSMs) have been used widely as a basis for segmenting and interpreting complex anatomical structures. The robustness of these models are sensitive to the registration procedures, i.e., establishment of a dense correspondence across a training data set. In this work, two SSMs based on the same training data set of scoliotic vertebrae, and registration procedures were compared. The first model was constructed based on the original binary masks without applying any image pre- and post-processing, and the second was obtained by means of a feature preserving smoothing method applied to the original training data set, followed by a standard rasterization algorithm. The accuracies of the correspondences were assessed quantitatively by means of the maximum of the mean minimum distance (MMMD) and Hausdorf distance (H(D)). Anatomical validity of the models were quantified by means of three different criteria, i.e., compactness, specificity, and model generalization ability. The objective of this study was to compare quasi-identical models based on standard metrics. Preliminary results suggest that the MMMD distance and eigenvalues are not sensitive metrics for evaluating the performance and robustness of SSMs.

A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Normative data for lung function and exhaled nitric oxide in unsedated healthy infants

Despite association with lung growth and long-term respiratory morbidity, there is a lack of normative lung function data for unsedated infants conforming to latest European Respiratory Society/American Thoracic Society standards. Lung function was measured using an ultrasonic flow meter in 342 unsedated, healthy, term-born infants at a mean ± sd age of 5.1 ± 0.8 weeks during natural sleep according to the latest standards. Tidal breathing flow-volume loops (TBFVL) and exhaled nitric oxide (eNO) measurements were obtained from 100 regular breaths. We aimed for three acceptable measurements for multiple-breath washout and 5-10 acceptable interruption resistance (R(int)) measurements. Acceptable measurements were obtained in ≤ 285 infants with high variability. Mean values were 7.48 mL·kg⁻¹ (95% limits of agreement 4.95-10.0 mL·kg⁻¹) for tidal volume, 14.3 ppb (2.6-26.1 ppb) for eNO, 23.9 mL·kg⁻¹ (16.0-31.8 mL·kg⁻¹) for functional residual capacity, 6.75 (5.63-7.87) for lung clearance index and 3.78 kPa·s·L⁻¹ (1.14-6.42 kPa·s·L⁻¹) for R(int). In males, TBFVL outcomes were associated with anthropometric parameters and in females, with maternal smoking during pregnancy, maternal asthma and Caesarean section. This large normative data set in unsedated infants offers reference values for future research and particularly for studies where sedation may put infants at risk. Furthermore, it highlights the impact of maternal and environmental risk factors on neonatal lung function.

The STEREO/PLASTIC response to solar wind ions (Flight measurements and models)

The Plasma and Supra-Thermal Ion Composition (PLASTIC) instrument is one of four experiment packages on board of the two identical STEREO spacecraft A and B, which were successfully launched from Cape Canaveral on 26 October 2006. During the two years of the nominal STEREO mission, PLASTIC is providing us with the plasma characteristics of protons, alpha particles, and heavy ions. PLASTIC will also provide key diagnostic measurements in the form of the mass and charge state composition of heavy ions. Three measurements (E/qk, time of flight, ESSD) from the pulse height raw data are used to characterize the solar wind ions from the solar wind sector, and part of the suprathermal particles from the wide-angle partition with respect to mass, atomic number and charge state. In this paper, we present a new method for flight data analysis based on simulations of the PLASTIC response to solar wind ions. We present the response of the entrance system / energy analyzer in an analytical form. Based on stopping power theory, we use an analytical expression for the energy loss of the ions when they pass through a thin carbon foil. This allows us to model analytically the response of the time of flight mass spectrometer to solar wind ions. Thus we present a new version of the analytical response of the solid state detectors to solar wind ions. Various important parameters needed for our models were derived, based on calibration data and on the first flight measurements obtained from STEREO-A. We used information from each measured event that is registered in full resolution in the Pulse Height Analysis words and we derived a new algorithm for the analysis of both existing and future data sets of a similar nature which was tested and works well. This algorithm allows us to obtain, for each measured event, the mass, atomic number and charge state in the correct physical units. Finally, an important criterion was developed for filtering our Fe raw flight data set from the pulse height data without discriminating charge states.

A tutorial on data-driven methods for statistically assessing ERP topographies

Dynamic changes in ERP topographies can be conveniently analyzed by means of microstates, the so-called "atoms of thoughts", that represent brief periods of quasi-stable synchronized network activation. Comparing temporal microstate features such as on- and offset or duration between groups and conditions therefore allows a precise assessment of the timing of cognitive processes. So far, this has been achieved by assigning the individual time-varying ERP maps to spatially defined microstate templates obtained from clustering the grand mean data into predetermined numbers of topographies (microstate prototypes). Features obtained from these individual assignments were then statistically compared. This has the problem that the individual noise dilutes the match between individual topographies and templates leading to lower statistical power. We therefore propose a randomization-based procedure that works without assigning grand-mean microstate prototypes to individual data. In addition, we propose a new criterion to select the optimal number of microstate prototypes based on cross-validation across subjects. After a formal introduction, the method is applied to a sample data set of an N400 experiment and to simulated data with varying signal-to-noise ratios, and the results are compared to existing methods. In a first comparison with previously employed statistical procedures, the new method showed an increased robustness to noise, and a higher sensitivity for more subtle effects of microstate timing. We conclude that the proposed method is well-suited for the assessment of timing differences in cognitive processes. The increased statistical power allows identifying more subtle effects, which is particularly important in small and scarce patient populations.

A very rare cancer in Down syndrome: medulloblastoma. Epidemiological data from 13 countries

Persons with Down syndrome (DS) uniquely have an increased frequency of leukemias but a decreased total frequency of solid tumors. The distribution and frequency of specific types of brain tumors have never been studied in DS. We evaluated the frequency of primary neural cell embryonal tumors and gliomas in a large international data set. The observed number of children with DS having a medulloblastoma, central nervous system primitive neuroectodermal tumor (CNS-PNET) or glial tumor was compared to the expected number. Data were collected from cancer registries or brain tumor registries in 13 countries of Europe, America, Asia and Oceania. The number of DS children with each category of tumor was treated as a Poisson variable with mean equal to 0.000884 times the total number of registrations in that category. Among 8,043 neural cell embryonal tumors (6,882 medulloblastomas and 1,161 CNS-PNETs), only one patient with medulloblastoma had DS, while 7.11 children in total and 6.08 with medulloblastoma were expected to have DS. (p 0.016 and 0.0066 respectively). Among 13,797 children with glioma, 10 had DS, whereas 12.2 were expected. Children with DS appear to be specifically protected against primary neural cell embryonal tumors of the CNS, whereas gliomas occur at the same frequency as in the general population. A similar protection against neuroblastoma, the principal extracranial neural cell embryonal tumor, has been observed in children with DS. Additional genetic material on the supernumerary chromosome 21 may protect against embryonal neural cell tumor development.

Energetic neutral atom imaging of the lunar surface

Since the Moon is not shielded by a global magnetic field or by an atmosphere, solar wind plasma impinges onto the lunar surface almost unhindered. Until recently, it was assumed that almost all of the impinging solar wind ions are absorbed by the surface. However, recent Interstellar Boundary Explorer, Chandrayaan-1, and Kaguya observations showed that the interaction process between the solar wind ions and the lunar surface is more complex than previously assumed. In contrast to previous assumptions, a large fraction of the impinging solar wind ions is backscattered as energetic neutral atoms. Using the complete Chandrayaan-1 Energetic Neutral Analyzer data set, we compute a global solar wind reflection ratio of 0.16 ± 0.05 from the lunar surface. Since these backscattered neutral particles are not affected by any electric or magnetic fields, each particle's point of origin on the lunar surface can be determined in a straight-forward manner allowing us to create energetic neutral atom maps of the lunar surface. The energetic neutral atom measurements recorded by the Chandrayaan-1 Energetic Neutral Analyzer cover ˜89% of the lunar surface, whereby the lunar farside is almost completely covered. We analyzed all available energetic neutral atom measurements recorded by the Chandrayaan-1 Energetic Neutral Analyzer to create the first global energetic neutral hydrogen maps of the lunar surface.

Fukushima Effects on Media Coverage and Attitudes in Germany

The paper examines the question, in how far Fukushima caused changes in the media coverage and the public opinion about nuclear power in Germany. To answer this question we used two methods, content analysis and survey. Firstly we analysed data from a quantitative content analyses to examine changes in the media coverage about nuclear power between 2010 and 2011. The first investigation period lasted from 10.07.2010 to 04.09.2010, immediately before the German Bundestag vote for the lifetime extension of nuclear power stations. The second investigation period covered the first two months of media coverage after Fukushima from 12.03.2011 to 16.5.2011. Secondly our data consist of a representative telephone panel survey (n=341). As the first wave was carried out from 16.8.2010 to 06.9.2010 and the second wave from 15.5.2011 to 04.06.2011 these data set gives us the unique possibility to investigate attitude changes about nuclear power on the individual level.

Europeanization in parliament and in the press

Europeanization challenges national democratic systems. As part and parcel of the broader internationalization of politics, Europeanization is associated with a shift from policymaking within majoritarian, elected representative bodies towards technocratic decisions among non-majoritarian and non-elected bodies (Kohler-Koch and Rittberger 2008, Lavenex 2013). It is thus said to weaken the influence of citizens and parliaments on the making of policies and to undermine democratic collective identity (Lavenex 2013, Schimmelfennig 2010). The weakening of national parliaments has been referred to as “de-parliamentarisation” (Goetz and Meyer-Sahling 2008) and has nurtured a broader debate regarding the democratic deficit in the EU. While not being a member of the EU, Switzerland has not remained unaffected by these changes. As discussed in the contribution by Fischer and Sciarini, state executive actors take the lead in Switzerland's European policy. They are responsible for the conduct of international negotiations, they own the treaty making power, and it is up to them to decide whether they wish to launch a negotiation with the EU. In addition, the strong take-it or leave-it character of Europeanized acts limits the room for manoeuver of the parliamentary body also in the ratification phase. Among the public, the rejection of the treaty on the European constitution has definitely closed the era of “permissive consensus” (Hooghe and Marks 2009). However, the process of European unification remains far remote from the European public. In Switzerland, the strongly administrative character of international legislation hinders public discussion (Vögeli 2007). In such a context, the media may serve as cue for the public: By delivering information about the extent and nature of Europeanized policymaking, the media enable citizens to form their own opinions and to hold their representatives accountable. In this sense media coverage may not only be considered an indicator of the information delivered to the public, but it may also enhance the democratic legitimacy of Europeanized policymaking (for a similar argument, see Tresch and Jochum 2005). While the previous contributions to this debate have examined the Europeanization of Swiss (primary and secondary) legislation, we take a closer look at two additional domestic arenas that are both supposed to be under pressure due to Europeanization: The parliament and the media. To that end, we rely on data gathered in a research project that two of us carried out in the context of the NCCR Democracy.1 While this project was primarily interested in the mediatization of decision-making processes in Switzerland, it also investigated the conditional role played by internationalization/Europeanization. For our present purposes, we shall exploit the two data-sets that were developed as part of a study of the political agenda-setting power of the media (Sciarini and Tresch 2012, 2013, Tresch et al. 2013): A data-set on issue attention in parliamentary interventions (initiatives, motions, postulates,2 interpellations and questions) and a data-set on issue attention in articles from the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ). The data covers the years 1995 to 2003 and the coding of issues followed the classification system developed in the “Policy Agendas Project” (Baumgartner and Jones 1993).

German Total Ankle Replacement Register of the German Foot and Ankle Society (D. A. F.) - presentation of design and reliability of the data as well as first results

INTRODUCTION Even though arthroplasty of the ankle joint is considered to be an established procedure, only about 1,300 endoprostheses are implanted in Germany annually. Arthrodeses of the ankle joint are performed almost three times more often. This may be due to the availability of the procedure - more than twice as many providers perform arthrodesis - as well as the postulated high frequency of revision procedures of arthroplasties in the literature. In those publications, however, there is often no clear differentiation between revision surgery with exchange of components, subsequent interventions due to complications and subsequent surgery not associated with complications. The German Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Association's (D. A. F.) registry for total ankle replacement collects data pertaining to perioperative complications as well as cause, nature and extent of the subsequent interventions, and postoperative patient satisfaction. MATERIAL AND METHODS The D. A. F.'s total ankle replacement register is a nation-wide, voluntary registry. After giving written informed consent, the patients can be added to the database by participating providers. Data are collected during hospital stay for surgical treatment, during routine follow-up inspections and in the context of revision surgery. The information can be submitted in paper-based or online formats. The survey instruments are available as minimum data sets or scientific questionnaires which include patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). The pseudonymous clinical data are collected and evaluated at the Institute for Evaluative Research in Medicine, University of Bern/Switzerland (IEFM). The patient-related data remain on the register's module server in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The registry's methodology as well as the results of the revisions and patient satisfaction for 115 patients with a two year follow-up period are presented. Statistical analyses are performed with SAS™ (Version 9.4, SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC, USA). RESULTS About 2½ years after the register was launched there are 621 datasets on primary implantations, 1,427 on follow-ups and 121 records on re-operation available. 49 % of the patients received their implants due to post-traumatic osteoarthritis, 27 % because of a primary osteoarthritis and 15 % of patients suffered from a rheumatic disease. More than 90 % of the primary interventions proceeded without complications. Subsequent interventions were recorded for 84 patients, which corresponds to a rate of 13.5 % with respect to the primary implantations. It should be noted that these secondary procedures also include two-stage procedures not due to a complication. "True revisions" are interventions with exchange of components due to mechanical complications and/or infection and were present in 7.6 % of patients. 415 of the patients commented on their satisfaction with the operative result during the last follow-up: 89.9 % of patients evaluate their outcome as excellent or good, 9.4 % as moderate and only 0.7 % (3 patients) as poor. In these three cases a component loosening or symptomatic USG osteoarthritis was present. Two-year follow-up data using the American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society Ankle and Hindfoot Scale (AOFAS-AHS) are already available for 115 patients. The median AOFAS-AHS score increased from 33 points preoperatively to more than 80 points three to six months postoperatively. This increase remained nearly constant over the entire two-year follow-up period. CONCLUSION Covering less than 10 % of the approximately 240 providers in Germany and approximately 12 % of the annually implanted total ankle-replacements, the D. A. F.-register is still far from being seen as a national registry. Nevertheless, geographical coverage and inclusion of "high-" (more than 100 total ankle replacements a year) and "low-volume surgeons" (less than 5 total ankle replacements a year) make the register representative for Germany. The registry data show that the number of subsequent interventions and in particular the "true revision" procedures are markedly lower than the 20 % often postulated in the literature. In addition, a high level of patient satisfaction over the short and medium term is recorded. From the perspective of the authors, these results indicate that total ankle arthroplasty - given a correct indication and appropriate selection of patients - is not inferior to an ankle arthrodesis concerning patients' satisfaction and function. First valid survival rates can be expected about 10 years after the register's start.