Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

Das Paradox der Wahlbeteiligung, das keines ist. Eine theoretische Rekonstruktion und empirische Anwendung des Ansatzes von Downs aus der Perspektive der Theorie subjektiver Werterwartung

Seit der richtungweisenden wie einflußreichen Arbeit von Downs (1957) wird in der empirischen Wahlforschung das „Paradox der Wahlbeteiligung“ kontrovers diskutiert. Kritiker des ökonomischen Ansatzes führen gerade dieses Paradox an, um die Grenzen von Rational-Choice-Theorien aufzuzeigen (z.B. Green und Shapiro 1994). Ausgangspunkt dieser Debatte ist zunächst der Versuch von Downs, die Beteiligung von Individuen an politischen Wahlen mit der Theorie rationaler Entscheidung zu erklären: Demnach beteiligen sich Wahlberechtigte an Wahlen, wenn aus ihrer Sicht der erwartete Nutzen der Wahlbeteiligung (etwa persönliche Vorteile nach dem Wahlsieg der präferierten Partei) die anfallenden Kosten der Wahlbeteiligung (etwa zeitlicher Aufwand für Beschaffung, Auswertung und Analyse von Informationen über das Politikangebot) übersteigt. Wahlberechtigte diskontieren den zu maximierenden Nutzen aus ihrer Wahlbeteiligung mit der Wahrscheinlichkeit, daß ihre eigene Stimme der präferierten Partei zum Wahlsieg verhilft. Allerdings tendiert diese Wahrscheinlichkeit, den Wahlausgang alleine zu entscheiden, mit der anwachsenden Größe des Elektorats gegen Null. Da aber aus Sicht des einzelnen Wählers die eigene Stimme so gut wie keinen entscheidenden Einfluß auf den Wahlausgang hat, aber mit Sicherheit Informations-, Opportunitäts- und Teilnahmekosten anfallen, die dann immer größer als die mit der Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeit gewichteten Nutzeneinkommen sind, ist es höchst unwahrscheinlich, daß sich ein instrumentell rationaler Akteur an politischen Wahlen beteiligt (Downs 1957: 244–245). Jedoch sind in modernen Demokratien die Beteiligungen an politischen Wahlen mitunter beträchtlich, und diese empirische Beobachtung widerspricht der ökonomischen Theorie des Wählens von Downs (1957)1. Es stellt sich also die Frage, warum sich Wahlberechtigte an politischen Wahlen beteiligen und warum die Wahlbeteiligungen zumeist recht hoch sind (vgl. Palfrey und Rosenthal 1993).

Enterprise software adoption and perceived business performance — an empirical investigation in Germany and the U.S.

This work contributes to the ongoing debate on the productivity paradox by considering CIOs’ perceptions of IT business value. Applying regression analysis to data from an international survey, we study how the adoption of certain types of enterprise software affects the CIOs’ perception of the impact of IT on the firm’s business activities and vice versa. Other potentially important factors such as country, sector and size of the firms are also taken into account. Our results indicate a more significant support for the impact of perceived IT benefits on adoption of enterprise software than vice versa. CIOs based in the US perceive IT benefits more strongly than their German counterparts. Furthermore, certain types of enterprise software seem to be more prevalent in the US.

The Contested Floodplain. Institutional Change of the Commons in the Kafue Flats, Zambia

The Contested Floodplain tells the story of institutional changes in the management of common pool resources (pasture, wildlife, and fisheries) among Ila and Balundwe agro-pastoralists and Batwa fishermen in the Kafue Flats, in southern Zambia. It explains how and why a once rich floodplain area, managed under local common property regimes, becomes a poor man’s place and a degraded resource area. Based on social anthropological field research, the book explains how well working institutions in the past, regulating communal access to resources, have turned into state property and open access or privatization. The study focuses on the historic developments taking place since pre-colonial and colonial times up to today. Haller shows how the commons had been well regulated by local institutions in the past, often embedded in religious belief systems. He then explains the transformation from common property to state property since colonial times. When the state is unable to provide well-functioning institutions due to a lack in financial income, it contributes to de facto open access and degradation of the commons. The Zambian copper-based economy has faced crisis since 1975, and many Zambians have to look for economic alternatives and find ways to profit from the lack of state control (a paradox of the present-absent state). And while the state is absent, external actors use the ideology of citizenship to justify free use of resources during conflicts with local people. Also within Zambian communities, floodplain resources are highly contested, which is illustrated through conflicts over a proposed irrigation scheme in the area.

The New Concept of Universal Service in a Digital Networked Communications Environment

Digitization, sophisticated fiber-optic networks and the resultant convergence of the media, communications and information technology industries have completely transformed the communications ecosystem in the last couple of decades. New contingent business and social models were created that have been mirrored in the amended communications regimes. Yet, despite an overhaul of the communications regulation paradigm, the status of and the rules on universal service have remained surprisingly intact, both during and after the liberalization exercise. The present paper looks into this paradox and examines the sustainability of the existing concept of universal service. It suggests that there is a need for a novel concept of universal service in the digital networked communications environment, whose objectives go beyond the conventional internalizing and redistributional rationales and concentrate on communication and information networks as a public good, where not only access to infrastructure but also access to content may be essential.

Discontinuity in the responses of ecosystem processes and multifunctionality to altered soil community composition

Ecosystem management policies increasingly emphasize provision of multiple, as opposed to single, ecosystem services. Management for such "multifunctionality" has stimulated research into the role that biodiversity plays in providing desired rates of multiple ecosystem processes. Positive effects of biodiversity on indices of multifunctionality are consistently found, primarily because species that are redundant for one ecosystem process under a given set of environmental conditions play a distinct role under different conditions or in the provision of another ecosystem process. Here we show that the positive effects of diversity (specifically community composition) on multifunctionality indices can also arise from a statistical fallacy analogous to Simpson's paradox (where aggregating data obscures causal relationships). We manipulated soil faunal community composition in combination with nitrogen fertilization of model grassland ecosystems and repeatedly measured five ecosystem processes related to plant productivity, carbon storage, and nutrient turnover. We calculated three common multifunctionality indices based on these processes and found that the functional complexity of the soil communities had a consistent positive effect on the indices. However, only two of the five ecosystem processes also responded positively to increasing complexity, whereas the other three responded neutrally or negatively. Furthermore, none of the individual processes responded to both the complexity and the nitrogen manipulations in a manner consistent with the indices. Our data show that multifunctionality indices can obscure relationships that exist between communities and key ecosystem processes, leading us to question their use in advancing theoretical understanding-and in management decisions-about how biodiversity is related to the provision of multiple ecosystem services.

Computable Diagonalizations and Turing’s Cardinality Paradox

A. N. Turing’s 1936 concept of computability, computing machines, and computable binary digital sequences, is subject to Turing’s Cardinality Paradox. The paradox conjoins two opposed but comparably powerful lines of argument, supporting the propositions that the cardinality of dedicated Turing machines outputting all and only the computable binary digital sequences can only be denumerable, and yet must also be nondenumerable. Turing’s objections to a similar kind of diagonalization are answered, and the implications of the paradox for the concept of a Turing machine, computability, computable sequences, and Turing’s effort to prove the unsolvability of the Entscheidungsproblem, are explained in light of the paradox. A solution to Turing’s Cardinality Paradox is proposed, positing a higher geometrical dimensionality of machine symbol-editing information processing and storage media than is available to canonical Turing machine tapes. The suggestion is to add volume to Turing’s discrete two-dimensional machine tape squares, considering them instead as similarly ideally connected massive three-dimensional machine information cells. Three-dimensional computing machine symbol-editing information processing cells, as opposed to Turing’s two-dimensional machine tape squares, can take advantage of a denumerably infinite potential for parallel digital sequence computing, by which to accommodate denumerably infinitely many computable diagonalizations. A three-dimensional model of machine information storage and processing cells is recommended on independent grounds as better representing the biological realities of digital information processing isomorphisms in the three-dimensional neural networks of living computers.

Serious Play as a Practice of Paradox

A recent stream of organizational research has used the term serious play to describe situations in which people engage in playful behaviors deliberately with the intention to achieve serious, work-related objectives. In this article, the authors reflect on the ambiguity of this term, and reframe serious play as a practice characterized by the paradox of intentionality (when actors engage deliberately in a fun, intrinsically motivating activity as a means to achieve a serious, extrinsically motivated work objective). This reframing not only extends the explanatory power of the concept of serious play but also helps bridge the concerns of scholars and practitioners: first, by enabling us to understand a variety of activities in organizations as serious play, which can help practitioners address specific organizational challenges; second, by recognizing the potential for emergent serious play, and the creation of the conditions to foster this emergence; third, by pointing toward specific, individual or group-level outcomes associated with the practice; and finally, by uncovering its ethical dimensions and encouraging the understanding of the role of serious play on ethical decision making.

The Vulnerable Text. Verwundbarkeit als textuelles Phänomen in Wolframs ›Parzival‹

Intertextuality imposes vulnerability – unter diesem Motto entwickelt der Renaissance-Forscher Thomas M. Greene die These, dass Texte im Zuge von Prozessen der Übertragung und Aneignung ‚verwundbar’ werden (Thomas M. Greene, The vulnerable text, New York 1986). Die so verstandene ‚Verwundbarkeit’ sei insbesondere ein Symptom vormoderner Textualität, die Texte zumeist ‚aus zweiter Hand’ produziere und den Begriff der ‚Originalität’ noch nicht kenne: „Part of the text’s vulnerability lies in its dependence on second hand signifiers, a vulnerability aggravated in a culture which does not yet fetishize originality.“ Während Greenes Ansatz in der Altgermanistik bereits im Hinblick auf die zwischen der Eigengesetzlichkeit vormoderner Texte und deren philologischer Erschließung bestehende Spannung zur Anwendung gebracht und problematisiert wurde (so von Christian Kiening für den ›Ackermann‹: Schwierige Modernität, Tübingen 1998), harrt er in Bezug auf das Verständnis von Intertextualität noch der altgermanistischen Auseinandersetzung. Diese versucht der eingereichte Vorschlag mit einem Fallbeispiel in Gang zu bringen. Als Textgrundlage werden Chrétiens ›Perceval ou le Conte du Graal‹ und dessen Aneignung durch Wolfram von Eschenbach gewählt, dies im Blick auf die Anfortas- und Sigune-Handlung (was es ermöglicht, den ›Titurel‹ mit einzubeziehen). Der Beitrag geht (im Anschluss an Jean Fourquet, Wolfram d’Eschenbach et le Conte del Graal, Paris 1938, 21966) davon aus, dass Wolfram die Bücher III bis VI des ›Parzival‹ (Jugendgeschichte bis zu Kundries Verfluchung wegen der unterlassenen Mitleidsfrage) nach einer handschriftlichen Vorlage des französischen Textes gestaltete, die ihm nach Abschluss dieses Teils abhanden kam. Für die Anfertigung der übrigen Bücher dürfte Wolfram eine anders geartete handschriftliche Vorlage zur Verfügung gehabt haben, was zur Überarbeitung eines bereits in Umlauf befindlichen deutschsprachigen Textes führte, die sich noch in Fassungsvarianten der Überlieferung wiederspiegelt. Aufgrund veränderter intertextueller Relationen wird also Wolframs eigener Text im Zuge der Redaktion ‚verwundbar’. Dieser Sachverhalt soll an Varianzen der Anfortas-Handlung aufgezeigt werden, wie sie insbesondere zwischen Buch V (Parzivals erster Besuch auf der Gralburg) und Buch IX (Parzivals Aufklärung durch den Einsiedler Trevrizent) fassbar werden. Der wunde Anfortas kann dabei auf Handlungsebene als Prototyp der Verletzbarkeit schlechthin gelten – einer Verletzbarkeit, die mit jener des Textes interagiert. Mit in diese Perspektive einbezogen werden sollen Elemente der Sigune-Handlung. Der Vorlagenwechsel veranlasst Wolfram auch im Hinblick auf den Kampfestod von Sigunes Geliebtem Schionatulander (bei Chrétien sind beide Figuren namenlos) zu den erwähnten Adaptationen und hat wohl seinerseits die Entstehung des ›Titurel‹ motiviert, wo die Verletzbarkeit im Umgang mit textlichen ‚Vorlagen’ sogar thematisiert wird: Sigune zerschürft ihre Hände beim Versuch, das beschriftete Brackenseil zu behalten. Das Paradox der ›Titurel‹-Dichtung besteht dabei darin, dass die erwähnte Szene und die darin beschriebene Verwundbarkeit der Figur eine Vorlage thematisiert, die der Text selbst gerade nicht hat. Denn der ›Titurel‹ dürfte unabhängig von einer konkreten Quelle, wie sie Chrétiens ›Perceval‹ darstellt, entstanden sein und besitzt damit gerade jene ‚Originalität’, die Greene im Rahmen seines Konzepts von ‚vulnerabilty’ vormodernen Texten abspricht.

Transregional Interactions between Jansenists, other Catholics, and Protestants in Seventeenth Century Northern Europe

This paper discusses the theological and cultural exchanges between Catholic clergy and theologians, and specifically between the neo-Augustinian-minded, the so-called “Jansenists”, and other Catholics, in Northern Europe during the seventeenth century. It also explores the Jansenists’ encounters and theological engagement with Protestantism. In this period, interaction and transfer between French Jansenist Catholics and other Catholics in other countries took place in various ways: 1. Via traveling and migration: French theologians and clergy returned home from their travels with reports about the situation of Catholicism and Protestantism in other countries; moreover, in the second half of the 17th century, French Jansenists fled to the northern Netherlands. 2. Via networking: it is little known that for a brief period on the North Sea island of Nordstrand, adherents to Port-Royal were buying land, and clergy of the Flemish Oratory provided pastoral care for the island’s Catholics. This project was not successful, but at the end it strengthened the network between French “Jansenists” and Catholics in the Dutch Republic. 3. Via publications by leading Jansenists and their counterparts. In this paper, the focus is on the view of Protestantism held by Jansenist writers.