Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.

Association between Head Injury and Helmet Use in Alpine Skiers: Cohort Study from a Swiss Level I Trauma Center.

The association between helmet use during alpine skiing and incidence and severity of head injuries was analyzed. All patients admitted to a level 1 trauma center for traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) sustained from skiing accidents during the seasons 2000-2001 and 2010-2011 were eligible. Primary outcome was the association between helmet use and severity of TBI measured by Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), computed tomography (CT) results, and necessity of neurosurgical intervention. Of 1362 patients injured during alpine skiing, 245 (18%) sustained TBI and were included. TBI was fatal in 3%. Head injury was in 76% minor (Glasgow Coma Scale, 13-15), 6% moderate, and 14% severe. Number and percentage of TBI patients showed no significant trend over the investigated seasons. Forty-five percent of the 245 patients had pathological CT findings and 26% of these required neurosurgical intervention. Helmet use increased from 0% in 2000-2001 to 71% in 2010-2011 (p<0.001). The main analysis, comparing TBI in patients with or without a helmet, showed an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.44 (p=0.430) for suffering moderate-to-severe head injury in helmet users. Analyses comparing off-piste to on-slope skiers revealed a significantly increased OR among off-piste skiers of 7.62 (p=0.004) for sustaining a TBI requiring surgical intervention. Despite increases in helmet use, we found no decrease in severe TBI among alpine skiers. Logistic regression analysis showed no significant difference in TBI with regard to helmet use, but increased risk for off-piste skiers. The limited protection of helmets and dangers of skiing off-piste should be targeted by prevention programs.

First results from a Swiss level I trauma centre participating in the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN): Prospective cohort study

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Patient characteristics and risk factors for death of Swiss trauma patients in the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN). METHODS: Descriptive analysis of trauma patients (≥16 years) admitted to a level I trauma centre in Switzerland (September 1, 2009 to August 31, 2010) and entered into TARN. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Of 458 patients 71% were male. The median age was 50.5 years (inter-quartile range [IQR] 32.2-67.7), median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 14 (IQR 9-20) and median Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) was 15 (IQR 14-15). The ISS was >15 for 47%, and 14% had an ISS >25. A total of 17 patients (3.7%) died within 30 days of trauma. All deaths were in patients with ISS >15. Most injuries were due to falls <2 m (35%) or road traffic accidents (29%). Injuries to the head (39%) were followed by injuries to the lower limbs (33%), spine (28%) and chest (27%). The time of admission peaked between 12:00 and 22:00, with a second peak between 00:00 and 02:00. A total of 64% of patients were admitted directly to our trauma centre. The median time to CT was 30 min (IQR 18-54 min). Using multivariable regression analysis, the predictors of mortality were older age, higher ISS and lower GCS. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of Swiss trauma patients derived from TARN were described for the first time, providing a detailed overview of the institutional trauma population. Based on these results, patient management and hospital resources (e.g. triage of patients, time to CT, staffing during night shifts) could be evaluated as a further step.

A chrysophyte-based quantitative reconstruction of winter severity from varved lake sediments in NE Poland during the past millennium and its relationship to natural climate variability

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

Cohort Study on the Association Between Helmet Use and Traumatic Brain Injury in Snowboarders From a Swiss Tertiary Trauma Center.

BACKGROUND Since the introduction of helmets in winter sports there is on-going debate on whether they decrease traumatic brain injuries (TBI). METHODS This cohort study included 117 adult (≥ 16 years) snowboarders with TBI admitted to a level I alpine trauma center in Switzerland between 2000/2001 and 2010/2011. The primary objective was to examine the association between helmet use and moderate-to-severe TBI. Secondary objectives were to describe the epidemiology of TBI during the past decade in relation to increased helmet use. RESULTS Of 691 injured snowboarders evaluated, 117 (17%) suffered TBI. Sixty-six percent were men (median age, 23 years). Two percent of accidents were fatal. Ninety-two percent of patients sustained minor, 1% moderate, and 7% severe TBI according to the Glasgow coma scale. Pathologic computed tomography findings were present in 16% of patients, 26% of which required surgery. Eighty-three percent of TBIs occurred while riding on-slope. There was no trend in the TBI rate during the studied period, although helmet use increased from 10% to 69%. Comparing patients with and without a helmet showed no significant difference in odds ratios for the severity of TBI. However, of the 5 patients requiring surgery only 1 was wearing a helmet. Off-piste compared with on-slope snowboarders showed an odds ratio of 26.5 (P = 0.003) for sustaining a moderate-to-severe TBI. CONCLUSIONS Despite increased helmet use we found no decrease in TBI among snowboarders. The possibility of TBI despite helmet use and the dangers of riding off-piste should be a focus of future prevention programs.

[Influence of the pelvic trauma registry of the DGU on treatment of pelvic ring fractures].

Fractures of the pelvic ring are comparatively rare with an incidence of 2-8 % of all fractures depending on the study in question. The severity of pelvic ring fractures can be very different ranging from simple and mostly "harmless" type A fractures up to life-threatening complex type C fractures. Although it was previously postulated that high-energy trauma was necessary to induce a pelvic ring fracture, over the past decades it became more and more evident, not least from data in the pelvic trauma registry of the German Society for Trauma Surgery (DGU), that low-energy minor trauma can also cause pelvic ring fractures of osteoporotic bone and in a rapidly increasing population of geriatric patients insufficiency fractures of the pelvic ring are nowadays observed with no preceding trauma.Even in large trauma centers the number of patients with pelvic ring fractures is mostly insufficient to perform valid and sufficiently powerful monocentric studies on epidemiological, diagnostic or therapeutic issues. For this reason, in 1991 the first and still the only registry worldwide for the documentation and evaluation of pelvic ring fractures was introduced by the Working Group Pelvis (AG Becken) of the DGU. Originally, the main objectives of the documentation were epidemiological and diagnostic issues; however, in the course of time it developed into an increasingly expanding dataset with comprehensive parameters on injury patterns, operative and conservative therapy regimens and short-term and long-term outcome of patients. Originally starting with 10 institutions, in the meantime more than 30 hospitals in Germany and other European countries participate in the documentation of data. In the third phase of the registry alone, which was started in 2004, data from approximately 15,000 patients with pelvic ring and acetabular fractures were documented. In addition to the scientific impact of the pelvic trauma registry, which is reflected in the numerous national and international publications, the dramatically changing epidemiology of pelvic ring fractures, further developments in diagnostics and the changes in operative procedures over time could be demonstrated. Last but not least the now well-established diagnostic and therapeutic algorithms for pelvic ring fractures, which could be derived from the information collated in registry studies, reflect the clinical impact of the registry.