Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.

Pattern and timing of the coronary sinus activation to guide rapid diagnosis of atrial tachycardia after atrial fibrillation ablation

BACKGROUND Atrial tachycardias (AT) during or after ablation of atrial fibrillation frequently pose a diagnostic challenge. We hypothesized that both the patterns and the timing of coronary sinus (CS) activation could facilitate AT mapping. METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 140 consecutive postpersistent atrial fibrillation ablation patients with sustained AT were investigated by conventional mapping. CS activation pattern was defined as chevron or reverse chevron when the activations recorded on both the proximal and the distal CS dipoles were latest or earliest, respectively. The local activation of mid-CS was timed with reference to Ppeak-Ppeak (P-P) interval in lead V1. A ratio, mid-CS activation time to AT cycle length, was computed. Of 223 diagnosed ATs, 124 were macroreentrant (56%) and 99 were centrifugal (44%). When CS activation was chevron/reverse chevron (n=44; 20%), macroreentries were mostly roof dependent. With reference to P-P interval, mid-CS activation timing showed specific consistency for peritricuspid and perimitral AT. Proximal to distal CS activation pattern and mid-CS activation at 50% to 70% of the P-P interval (n=30; 13%) diagnosed peritricuspid AT with 81% sensitivity and 89% specificity. Distal to proximal CS activation and mid-CS activation at 10% to 40% of the P-P interval (n=44; 20%) diagnosed perimitral AT with 88% sensitivity and 75% specificity. CONCLUSIONS The analysis of the patterns and timing of CS activation provides a rapid stratification of most likely macroreentrant ATs and points toward the likely origin of centrifugal ATs. It can be included in a stepwise diagnostic approach to rapidly select the most critical mapping maneuvers.

White matter pathway organization of the reward system is related to positive and negative symptoms in schizophrenia

The reward systemin schizophrenia has been linked to the emergence of delusions on the one hand and to negative symptoms such as affective flattening on the other hand. Previous Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) studies reported white matter microstructure alterations of regions related to the reward system. The present study aimed at extending these findings by specifically investigating connection pathways of the reward system in schizophrenia. Therefore, 24 patients with schizophrenia and 22 healthy controls matched for age and gender underwent DTI-scans. Using a probabilistic fiber tracking approachwe bilaterally extracted pathways connecting the ventral tegmental area (VTA) with the nucleus accumbens (NAcc), themedial and lateral orbitofrontal cortices (mOFC, lOFC), the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) and the amygdala; as well as pathways connecting NAcc with mOFC, lOFC, dlPFC and amygdala resulting in a total of 18 connections. Probability indices forming part of a bundle of interest (PIBI) were compared between groups using independent t-tests. In 6 connection pathways PIBI-valueswere increased in schizophrenia. In 3 of these pathways the spatial extension of connection pathways was decreased. In schizophrenia patients, there was a negative correlation of PIBI-values and PANSS negative scores in the left VTA–amygdala and in the left NAcc–mOFC connection. A sum score of delusions and hallucinations correlated positively with PIBI-values of the left amygdala–NAcc connection. Structural organization of specific segments ofwhite matter pathways of the reward systemin schizophrenia may contribute to the emergence of delusions and negative symptoms in schizophrenia.

A distributed, semiotic-inductive and human-Oriented approach to web-scale knowledge retrieval

Web-scale knowledge retrieval can be enabled by distributed information retrieval, clustering Web clients to a large-scale computing infrastructure for knowledge discovery from Web documents. Based on this infrastructure, we propose to apply semiotic (i.e., sub-syntactical) and inductive (i.e., probabilistic) methods for inferring concept associations in human knowledge. These associations can be combined to form a fuzzy (i.e.,gradual) semantic net representing a map of the knowledge in the Web. Thus, we propose to provide interactive visualizations of these cognitive concept maps to end users, who can browse and search the Web in a human-oriented, visual, and associative interface.

Representation via Probabilities: Models of Probabilistic Modeling

How do probabilistic models represent their targets and how do they allow us to learn about them? The answer to this question depends on a number of details, in particular on the meaning of the probabilities involved. To classify the options, a minimalist conception of representation (Su\'arez 2004) is adopted: Modelers devise substitutes (``sources'') of their targets and investigate them to infer something about the target. Probabilistic models allow us to infer probabilities about the target from probabilities about the source. This leads to a framework in which we can systematically distinguish between different models of probabilistic modeling. I develop a fully Bayesian view of probabilistic modeling, but I argue that, as an alternative, Bayesian degrees of belief about the target may be derived from ontic probabilities about the source. Remarkably, some accounts of ontic probabilities can avoid problems if they are supposed to apply to sources only.

Probabilistic contingency learning with limbic or prefrontal damage

AB A fundamental capacity of the human brain is to learn relations (contingencies) between environmental stimuli and the consequences of their occurrence. Some contingencies are probabilistic; that is, they predict an event in some situations but not in all. Animal studies suggest that damage to limbic structures or the prefrontal cortex may disturb probabilistic learning. The authors studied the learning of probabilistic contingencies in amnesic patients with limbic lesions, patients with prefrontal cortex damage, and healthy controls. Across 120 trials, participants learned contingent relations between spatial sequences and a button press. Amnesic patients had learning comparable to that of control subjects but failed to indicate what they had learned. Across the last 60 trials, amnesic patients and control subjects learned to avoid a noncontingent choice better than frontal patients. These results indicate that probabilistic learning does not depend on the brain structures supporting declarative memory.

A web-based non-intrusive ambient system to measure and classify activities of daily living.

BACKGROUND The number of older adults in the global population is increasing. This demographic shift leads to an increasing prevalence of age-associated disorders, such as Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia. With the progression of the disease, the risk for institutional care increases, which contrasts with the desire of most patients to stay in their home environment. Despite doctors' and caregivers' awareness of the patient's cognitive status, they are often uncertain about its consequences on activities of daily living (ADL). To provide effective care, they need to know how patients cope with ADL, in particular, the estimation of risks associated with the cognitive decline. The occurrence, performance, and duration of different ADL are important indicators of functional ability. The patient's ability to cope with these activities is traditionally assessed with questionnaires, which has disadvantages (eg, lack of reliability and sensitivity). Several groups have proposed sensor-based systems to recognize and quantify these activities in the patient's home. Combined with Web technology, these systems can inform caregivers about their patients in real-time (e.g., via smartphone). OBJECTIVE We hypothesize that a non-intrusive system, which does not use body-mounted sensors, video-based imaging, and microphone recordings would be better suited for use in dementia patients. Since it does not require patient's attention and compliance, such a system might be well accepted by patients. We present a passive, Web-based, non-intrusive, assistive technology system that recognizes and classifies ADL. METHODS The components of this novel assistive technology system were wireless sensors distributed in every room of the participant's home and a central computer unit (CCU). The environmental data were acquired for 20 days (per participant) and then stored and processed on the CCU. In consultation with medical experts, eight ADL were classified. RESULTS In this study, 10 healthy participants (6 women, 4 men; mean age 48.8 years; SD 20.0 years; age range 28-79 years) were included. For explorative purposes, one female Alzheimer patient (Montreal Cognitive Assessment score=23, Timed Up and Go=19.8 seconds, Trail Making Test A=84.3 seconds, Trail Making Test B=146 seconds) was measured in parallel with the healthy subjects. In total, 1317 ADL were performed by the participants, 1211 ADL were classified correctly, and 106 ADL were missed. This led to an overall sensitivity of 91.27% and a specificity of 92.52%. Each subject performed an average of 134.8 ADL (SD 75). CONCLUSIONS The non-intrusive wireless sensor system can acquire environmental data essential for the classification of activities of daily living. By analyzing retrieved data, it is possible to distinguish and assign data patterns to subjects' specific activities and to identify eight different activities in daily living. The Web-based technology allows the system to improve care and provides valuable information about the patient in real-time.

Defensive weapons and defense signals in plants: Some metabolites serve both roles

The defense of plants against herbivores and pathogens involves the participation of an enormous range of different metabolites, some of which act directly as defensive weapons against enemies (toxins or deterrents) and some of which act as components of the complex internal signaling network that insures that defense is timed to enemy attack. Recent work reveals a surprising trend: The same compounds may act as both weapons and signals of defense. For example, two groups of well-studied defensive weapons, glucosinolates and benzoxazinoids, trigger the accumulation of the protective polysaccharide callose as a barrier against aphids and pathogens. In the other direction, several hormones acting in defense signaling (and their precursors and products) exhibit activity as weapons against pathogens. Knowing which compounds are defensive weapons, which are defensive signals and which are both is vital for understanding the functioning of plant defense systems.

New anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values for urinary 24-hour creatinine excretion based on the adult Swiss population.

BACKGROUND Urinary creatinine excretion is used as a marker of completeness of timed urine collections, which are a keystone of several metabolic evaluations in clinical investigations and epidemiological surveys. The current reference values for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion rely on observations performed in the 1960s and 1970s in relatively small and mostly selected groups, and may thus poorly fit to the present-day general European population. The aim of this study was to establish and validate anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion on adult populations with preserved renal function. METHODS We used data from two independent Swiss cross-sectional population-based studies with standardised 24-hour urinary collection and measured anthropometric variables. Only data from adults of European descent, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and reported completeness of the urinary collection were retained. A linear regression model was developed to predict centiles of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in 1,137 participants from the Swiss Survey on Salt and validated in 994 participants from the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. RESULTS The mean urinary creatinine excretion was 193 ± 41 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 151 ± 38 μmol/kg/24 hours in women in the Swiss Survey on Salt. The values were inversely correlated with age and body mass index (BMI). Based on current reference values (177 to 221 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 133 to 177 μmol/kg/24 hours in women), 56% of the urinary collections in the whole population and 67% in people >60 years old would have been considered as inaccurate. A linear regression model with sex, BMI and age as predictor variables was found to provide the best prediction of the observed values and showed a good fit when applied to the validation population. CONCLUSIONS We propose a validated prediction equation for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in the general European population, based on readily available variables such as age, sex and BMI, and a few derived normograms to ease its clinical application. This should help healthcare providers to interpret the completeness of a 24-hour urine collection in daily clinical practice and in epidemiological population studies.

Neglect and Motion Stimuli - Insights from a Touchscreen-Based Cancellation Task

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In stroke patients, neglect diagnostic is often performed by means of paper-pencil cancellation tasks. These tasks entail static stimuli, and provide no information concerning possible changes in the severity of neglect symptoms when patients are confronted with motion. We therefore aimed to directly contrast the cancellation behaviour of neglect patients under static and dynamic conditions. Since visual field deficits often occur in neglect patients, we analysed whether the integrity of the optic radiation would influence cancellation behaviour. METHODS: Twenty-five patients with left spatial neglect after right-hemispheric stroke were tested with a touchscreen cancellation task, once when the evenly distributed targets were stationary, and once when the identic targets moved with constant speed on a random path. The integrity of the right optic radiation was analysed by means of a hodologic probabilistic approach. RESULTS: Motion influenced the cancellation behaviour of neglect patients, and the direction of this influence (i.e., an increase or decrease of neglect severity) was modulated by the integrity of the right optic radiation. In patients with an intact optic radiation, the severity of neglect significantly decreased in the dynamic condition. Conversely, in patients with damage to the optic radiation, the severity of neglect significantly increased in the dynamic condition. CONCLUSION: Motion may influence neglect in stroke patients. The integrity of the optic radiation may be a predictor of whether motion increases or decreases the severity of neglect symptoms.

First steps towards probabilistic justification logic

In this article, we introduce the probabilistic justification logic PJ, a logic in which we can reason about the probability of justification statements. We present its syntax and semantics, and establish a strong completeness theorem. Moreover, we investigate the relationship between PJ and the logic of uncertain justifications.

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Socioeconomic Status and Childhood Leukemia Incidence in Switzerland.

Socioeconomic status (SES) discrepancies exist for child and adult cancer morbidity and are a major public health concern. In this Swiss population-based matched case-control study on the etiology of childhood leukemia, we selected the cases from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry diagnosed since 1991 and the controls randomly from census. We assigned eight controls per case from the 1990 and 2000 census and matched them by the year of birth and gender. SES information for both cases and controls was obtained from census records by probabilistic record linkage. We investigated the association of SES with childhood leukemia in Switzerland, and explored whether it varied with different definitions of socioeconomic status (parental education, living condition, area-based SES), time period, and age. In conditional logistic regression analyses of 565 leukemia cases and 4433 controls, we found no consistent evidence for an association between SES and childhood leukemia. The odds ratio comparing the highest with the lowest SES category ranged from 0.95 (95% CI: 0.71-1.26; P trend = 0.73) for paternal education to 1.37 (1.00-1.89; P trend = 0.064) for maternal education. No effect modification was found for time period and age at diagnosis. Based on this population-based study, which avoided participation and reporting bias, we assume the potential association of socioeconomic status and childhood leukemia if existing to be small. This study did not find evidence that socioeconomic status, of Switzerland or comparable countries, is a relevant risk factor or strong confounder in etiological investigations on childhood leukemia.

Intervals for the assessment of measurement agreement: Similarities, differences, and consequences of incorrect interpretations

Several intervals have been proposed to quantify the agreement of two methods intended to measure the same quantity in the situation where only one measurement per method and subject is available. The limits of agreement are probably the most well-known among these intervals, which are all based on the differences between the two measurement methods. The different meanings of the intervals are not always properly recognized in applications. However, at least for small-to-moderate sample sizes, the differences will be substantial. This is illustrated both using the width of the intervals and on probabilistic scales related to the definitions of the intervals. In particular, for small-to-moderate sample sizes, it is shown that limits of agreement and prediction intervals should not be used to make statements about the distribution of the differences between the two measurement methods or about a plausible range for all future differences. Care should therefore be taken to ensure the correct choice of the interval for the intended interpretation.