Impact of delay in reducing carbon dioxide emissions

Recent downward revisions in the climate response to rising CO2 levels, and opportunities for reducing non-CO2 climate warming, have both been cited as evidence that the case for reducing CO2 emissions is less urgent than previously thought. Evaluating the impact of delay is complicated by the fact that CO2 emissions accumulate over time, so what happens after they peak is as relevant for long-term warming as the size and timing of the peak itself. Previous discussions have focused on how the rate of reduction required to meet any given temperature target rises asymptotically the later the emissions peak. Here we focus on a complementary question: how fast is peak CO2-induced warming increasing while mitigation is delayed, assuming no increase in rates of reduction after the emissions peak? We show that this peak-committed warming is increasing at the same rate as cumulative CO2 emissions, about 2% per year, much faster than observed warming, independent of the climate response.

Hide-and-seek in vegetation: time-to-detection is an efficient design for estimating detectability and occurrence

Ecology and conservation require reliable data on the occurrence of animals and plants. A major source of bias is imperfect detection, which, however, can be corrected for by estimation of detectability. In traditional occupancy models, this requires repeat or multi-observer surveys. Recently, time-to-detection models have been developed as a cost-effective alternative, which requires no repeat surveys and hence costs could be halved. We compared the efficiency and reliability of time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models under varying survey effort. Two observers independently searched for 17 plant species in 44100m(2) Swiss grassland quadrats and recorded the time-to-detection for each species, enabling detectability to be estimated with both time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models. In addition, we gauged the relative influence on detectability of species, observer, plant height and two measures of abundance (cover and frequency). Estimates of detectability and occupancy under both models were very similar. Rare species were more likely to be overlooked; detectability was strongly affected by abundance. As a measure of abundance, frequency outperformed cover in its predictive power. The two observers differed significantly in their detection ability. Time-to-detection models were as accurate as traditional occupancy models, but their data easier to obtain; thus they provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional occupancy models for detection-corrected estimation of occurrence.

Delay effects in the response of low-grade gliomas to radiotherapy: a mathematical model and its therapeutical implications

Low-grade gliomas (LGGs) are a group of primary brain tumours usually encountered in young patient populations. These tumours represent a difficult challenge because many patients survive a decade or more and may be at a higher risk for treatment-related complications. Specifically, radiation therapy is known to have a relevant effect on survival but in many cases it can be deferred to avoid side effects while maintaining its beneficial effect. However, a subset of LGGs manifests more aggressive clinical behaviour and requires earlier intervention. Moreover, the effectiveness of radiotherapy depends on the tumour characteristics. Recently Pallud et al. (2012. Neuro-Oncology, 14: , 1-10) studied patients with LGGs treated with radiation therapy as a first-line therapy and obtained the counterintuitive result that tumours with a fast response to the therapy had a worse prognosis than those responding late. In this paper, we construct a mathematical model describing the basic facts of glioma progression and response to radiotherapy. The model provides also an explanation to the observations of Pallud et al. Using the model, we propose radiation fractionation schemes that might be therapeutically useful by helping to evaluate tumour malignancy while at the same time reducing the toxicity associated to the treatment.

Analysis of TNF-antagonist switch over time and associated risk factors in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Limited data from large cohorts are available on tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists (infliximab, adalimumab, certolizumab pegol) switch over time. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of switching from one TNF antagonist to another and to identify associated risk factors. METHODS Data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Cohort Study (SIBDCS) were analyzed. RESULTS Of 1731 patients included into the SIBDCS (956 with Crohn's disease [CD] and 775 with ulcerative colitis [UC]), 347 CD patients (36.3%) and 129 UC patients (16.6%) were treated with at least one TNF antagonist. A total of 53/347 (15.3%) CD patients (median disease duration 9 years) and 20/129 (15.5%) of UC patients (median disease duration 7 years) needed to switch to a second and/or a third TNF antagonist, respectively. Median treatment duration was longest for the first TNF antagonist used (CD 25 months; UC 14 months), followed by the second (CD 13 months; UC 4 months) and third TNF antagonist (CD 11 months; UC 15 months). Primary nonresponse, loss of response and side effects were the major reasons to stop and/or switch TNF antagonist therapy. A low body mass index, a short diagnostic delay and extraintestinal manifestations at inclusion were identified as risk factors for a switch of the first used TNF antagonist within 24 months of its use in CD patients. CONCLUSION Switching of the TNF antagonist over time is a common issue. The median treatment duration with a specific TNF antagonist is diminishing with an increasing number of TNF antagonists being used.

Displaced supracondylar humeral fractures: influence of delay of surgery on the incidence of open reduction, complications and outcome.

BACKGROUND Closed reduction and pinning is the accepted treatment choice for dislocated supracondylar humeral fractures in children (SCHF). Rates of open reduction, complications and outcome are reported to be dependent on delay of surgery. We investigated whether delay of surgery had influence on the incidence of open reduction, complications and outcome of surgical treatment of SCHFs in the authors' institution. METHODS Three hundred and forty-one children with 343 supracondylar humeral fractures (Gartland II: 144; Gartland III: 199) who underwent surgery between 2000 and 2009 were retrospectively analysed. The group consisted of 194 males and 149 females. The average age was 6.3 years. Mean follow-up was 6.2 months. Time interval between trauma and surgical intervention was determined using our institutional database. Clinical and radiographical data were collected for each group. Influence of delay of treatment on rates of open reduction, complications and outcome was calculated using logistic regression analysis. Furthermore, patients were grouped into 4 groups of delay (<6 h, n = 166; 6-12 h, n = 95; 12-24 h, n = 68; >24 h, n = 14) and the aforementioned variables were compared among these groups. RESULTS The incidence of open procedures in 343 supracondylar humeral fractures was 2.6 %. Complication rates were similar to the literature (10.8 %) primarily consisting of transient neurological impairments (9.0 %) which all were fully reversible by conservative treatment. Poor outcome was seen in 1.7 % of the patients. Delay of surgical treatment had no influence on rates of open surgery (p = 0.662), complications (p = 0.365) or poor outcome (p = 0.942). CONCLUSIONS In this retrospective study delay of treatment of SCHF did not have significant influence on the incidence of open reduction, complications, and outcome. Therefore, in SCHF with sufficient blood perfusion and nerve function, elective treatment is reasonable to avoid surgical interventions in the middle of the night which are stressful and wearing both for patients and for surgeons. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III (retrospective comparative study).

Time to endovascular reperfusion and degree of disability in acute stroke.

OBJECTIVE Faster time from onset to recanalization (OTR) in acute ischemic stroke using endovascular therapy (ET) has been associated with better outcome. However, previous studies were based on less-effective first-generation devices, and analyzed only dichotomized disability outcomes, which may underestimate the full effect of treatment. METHODS In the combined databases of the SWIFT and STAR trials, we identified patients treated with the Solitaire stent retriever with achievement of substantial reperfusion (Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction [TICI] 2b-3). Ordinal numbers needed to treat values were derived by populating joint outcome tables. RESULTS Among 202 patients treated with ET with TICI 2b to 3 reperfusion, mean age was 68 (±13), 62% were female, and median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was 17 (interquartile range [IQR]: 14-20). Day 90 modified Rankin Scale (mRS) outcomes for OTR time intervals ranging from 180 to 480 minutes showed substantial time-related reductions in disability across the entire outcome range. Shorter OTR was associated with improved mean 90-day mRS (1.4 vs. 2.4 vs. 3.3, for OTR groups of 124-240 vs. 241-360 vs. 361-660 minutes; p < 0.001). The number of patients identified as benefitting from therapy with shorter OTR were 3-fold (range, 1.5-4.7) higher on ordinal, compared with dichotomized analysis. For every 15-minute acceleration of OTR, 34 per 1,000 treated patients had improved disability outcome. INTERPRETATION Analysis of disability over the entire outcome range demonstrates a marked effect of shorter time to reperfusion upon improved clinical outcome, substantially higher than binary metrics. For every 5-minute delay in endovascular reperfusion, 1 of 100 patients has a worse disability outcome. Ann Neurol 2015;78:584-593.