Variability in outcome and resource use in intensive care units

OBJECTIVE: To examine variability in outcome and resource use between ICUs. Secondary aims: to assess whether outcome and resource use are related to ICU structure and process, to explore factors associated with efficient resource use. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cohort study, based on the SAPS 3 database in 275 ICUs worldwide. PATIENTS: 16,560 adults. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Outcome was defined by standardized mortality rate (SMR). Standardized resource use (SRU) was calculated based on length of stay in the ICU, adjusted for severity of acute illness. Each unit was assigned to one of four groups: "most efficient" (SMR and SRU < median); "least efficient" (SMR, SRU > median); "overachieving" (low SMR, high SRU), "underachieving" (high SMR, low SRU). Univariate analysis and stepwise logistic regression were used to test for factors separating "most" from "least efficient" units. Overall median SMR was 1.00 (IQR 0.77-1.28) and SRU 1.07 (0.76-1.58). There were 91 "most efficient", 91 "least efficient", 47 "overachieving", and 46 "underachieving" ICUs. Number of physicians, of full-time specialists, and of nurses per bed, clinical rounds, availability of physicians, presence of emergency department, and geographical region were significant in univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis only interprofessional rounds, emergency department, and geographical region entered the model as significant. CONCLUSIONS: Despite considerable variability in outcome and resource use only few factors of ICU structure and process were associated with efficient use of ICU. This suggests that other confounding factors play an important role.

Heart rate variability does not discriminate between different levels of haemodynamic responsiveness during surgical anaesthesia

BACKGROUND: Hypnotic depth but not haemodynamic responsiveness is measured with EEG-based monitors. In this study we compared heart rate variability (HRV) in unstimulated patients and stimulation-induced HRV at different levels of anaesthesia. METHODS: A total of 95 ASA I or II patients were randomly assigned to five groups (Group 1: BIS 45(5), remifentanil 1 ng ml(-1); Group 2: BIS 45(5), remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1); Group 3: BIS 45(5), remifentanil 4 ng ml(-1); Group 4: BIS 30(5), remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1); Group 5: BIS 60(5), remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1)). A time- and frequency-domain analysis of the RR interval (RRI) from the electrocardiogram was performed. HRV before induction, before and after a 5 s tetanic stimulus of the ulnar nerve, and before and after tracheal intubation was compared between groups, between stimuli, and between responders to intubation [systolic arterial pressure (SAP) increase >20 mm Hg, a maximal heart rate (HR) after intubation >90 min(-1) or both] and non-responders (anova). RESULTS: Induction of anaesthesia significantly lowered HR and HRV. Mean RRI before stimulation was higher in G3 than in G1, G2, and G4 (P < 0.001), whereas the other HRV parameters were similar. Intubation induced a greater HRV response than tetanic stimulation. The mean RRI after intubation was lower in G3 compared with the other groups and the sd of the RRI after tetanic stimulation was lower in G3 compared with G5. Otherwise, unstimulated HRV and stimulation-induced HRV were similar in responders and non-responders. CONCLUSION: HRV parameters discriminate between awake and general anaesthesia, are different after tracheal intubation and a 5 s ulnar nerve stimulation, but do not discriminate between different levels of haemodynamic responsiveness during surgical anaesthesia.

Variability in pain response to a non-pharmacological intervention across repeated routine pain exposure in preterm infants: a feasibility study

AIM: To explore the variability in pain response in preterm infants across time who received sucrose during routine heel stick. METHOD: Single group, exploratory repeated measures design. SETTING: Two tertiary level neonatal intensive care units (NICU) in Switzerland. SUBJECTS: Nine preterm infants born between 28 2/7 and 31 4/7 weeks of gestation during their first 14 days of life. MEASUREMENTS: Pain was assessed by the Bernese Pain Scale for Neonates (BPSN), the Premature Infant Pain Profile (PIPP) and the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). Salivary cortisol was analysed. RESULTS: 72-94% of the variability was within-subject variability, indicating inconsistency of pain responses across the 5 heel sticks. Interrater agreement was highest during heel sticks 1-3 and decreased during heel stick 4 and 5, indicating a possible alteration of pain patterns. No significant differences in the amount of cortisol could be detected before and after the heel sticks (p = 0.55), indicating no stress-induced peak after the painful intervention. However, a general gradual decrease of cortisol levels across time could be detected. CONCLUSION: A high variability in pain response among preterm neonates across time could be described. Consistency of cortisol levels before and after the heel sticks could indicate the effectiveness of sucrose across time.

Diurnal variability of C-reactive protein in obstructive sleep apnea

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to examine the diurnal variability of C-reactive protein (CRP) in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). METHODS AND MEASUREMENTS: Participants included 44 women and men with untreated OSA (mean apnea/hypopnea index = 37.5, SD +/- 28) and 23 healthy adults with no OSA. Sleep was monitored with polysomnography in the University of California San Diego General Clinical Research Center. Over a 24-h period, blood was collected every 2 h, and CRP levels were determined. RESULTS: Adjusting for age, gender, and body mass index, a significant group by time interaction showed that patients with OSA had higher CRP levels during the daytime (8:00 a.m.-8:00 p.m.) versus the nighttime (10:00 p.m. until 6:00 p.m.; p < 0.001). Non-apneics showed no significant change in CRP levels during the 24 h. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that sleep apnea patients have disproportionately elevated CRP levels in the day versus the nighttime, possibly as a result of carryover effects of nighttime arousal into the daytime.

Climate Variability and Extremes during the Past 100 Years

Large progress has been made in the past few years towards quantifying and understanding climate variability during past centuries. At the same time, present-day climate has been studied using state-of-the-art data sets and tools with respect to the physical and chemical mechanisms governing climate variability. Both the understanding of the past and the knowledge of the processes are important for assessing and attributing the anthropogenic effect on present and future climate. The most important time period in this context is the past approximately 100 years, which comprises large natural variations and extremes (such as long droughts) as well as anthropogenic influences, most pronounced in the past few decades. Recent and ongoing research efforts steadily improve the observational record of the 20th century, while atmospheric circulation models are used to underpin the mechanisms behind large climatic variations. Atmospheric chemistry and composition are important for understanding climate variability and change, and considerable progress has been made in the past few years in this field. The evolving integration of these research areas in a more comprehensive analysis of recent climate variability was reflected in the organisation of a workshop “Climate variability and extremes in the past 100 years” in Gwatt near Thun (Switzerland), 24–26 July 2006. The aim of this workshop was to bring together scientists working on data issues together with statistical climatologists, modellers, and atmospheric chemists to discuss gaps in our understanding of climate variability during the past approximately 100 years.

1200 years of decadal-scale variability of Mediterranean vegetation and climate at Pantelleria Island, Italy

A new sedimentary sequence from Lago di Venere on Pantelleria Island, located in the Strait of Sicily between Tunisia and Sicily was recovered. The lake is located in the coastal infra-Mediterranean vegetation belt at 2 m a.s.l. Pollen, charcoal and sedimentological analyses are used to explore linkages among vegetation, fire and climate at a decadal scale over the past 1200 years. A dry period from ad 800 to 1000 that corresponds to the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (WMP) is inferred from sedimentological analysis. The high content of carbonate recorded in this period suggests a dry phase, when the ratio of evaporation/precipitation was high. During this period the island was dominated by thermophilous and drought-tolerant taxa, such as Quercus ilex, Olea, Pistacia and Juniperus. A marked shift in the sediment properties is recorded at ad 1000, when carbonate content became very low suggesting wetter conditions until ad 1850–1900. Broadly, this period coincides with the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA), which was characterized by wetter and colder conditions in Europe. During this time rather mesic conifers (i.e. Pinus pinaster), shrubs and herbs (e.g. Erica arborea and Selaginella denticulata) expanded, whereas more drought-adapted species (e.g. Q. ilex) declined. Charcoal data suggest enhanced fire activity during the LIA probably as a consequence of anthropogenic burning and/or more flammable fuel (e.g. resinous Pinus biomass). The last century was characterized by a shift to high carbonate content, indicating a change towards drier conditions, and re-expansion of Q. ilex and Olea. The post-LIA warming is in agreement with historical documents and meteorological time series. Vegetation dynamics were co-determined by agricultural activities on the island. Anthropogenic indicators (e.g. Cerealia-type, Sporormiella) reveal the importance of crops and grazing on the island. Our pollen data suggest that extensive logging caused the local extinction of deciduous Quercus pubescens around ad1750.

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

Snow variability in the Swiss Alps 1864-2009

We present a climate analysis of nine unique Swiss Alpine new snow series that have been newly digitized. The stations cover different altitudes (450–1860 m asl) and all time series cover more than 100 years (one from 1864 to 2009). In addition, data from 71 stations for the last 50–80 years for new snow and snow depth are analysed to get a more complete picture of the Swiss Alpine snow variability. Important snow climate indicators such as new snow sums (NSS), maximum new snow (MAXNS) and days with snowfall (DWSF) are calculated and variability and trends analysed. Series of days with snow pack (DWSP) ≥ 1 cm are reconstructed with useful quality for six stations using the daily new snow, local temperature and precipitation data. Our results reveal large decadal variability with phases of low and high values for NSS, DWSF and DWSP. For most stations NSS, DWSF and DWSP show the lowest values recorded and unprecedented negative trends in the late 1980s and 1990s. For MAXNS, however, no clear trends and smaller decadal variability are found but very large MAXNS values (>60 cm) are missing since the year 2000. The fraction of NSS and DWSP in different seasons (autumn, winter and spring) has changed only slightly over the ∼150 year record. Some decreases most likely attributable to temperature changes in the last 50 years are found for spring, especially for NSS at low stations. Both the NSS and DWSP snow indicators show a trend reversal in most recent years (since 2000), especially at low and medium altitudes. This is consistent with the recent ‘plateauing’ (i.e. slight relative decrease) of mean winter temperature in Switzerland and illustrates how important decadal variability is in understanding the trends in key snow indicators.

Intelligence is related to specific processes in visual change detection: Fixed-links modeling of hit rate and reaction time

By means of fixed-links modeling, the present study identified different processes of visual short-term memory (VSTM) functioning and investigated how these processes are related to intelligence. We conducted an experiment where the participants were presented with a color change detection task. Task complexity was manipulated through varying the number of presented stimuli (set size). We collected hit rate and reaction time (RT) as indicators for the amount of information retained in VSTM and speed of VSTM scanning, respectively. Due to the impurity of these measures, however, the variability in hit rate and RT was assumed to consist not only of genuine variance due to individual differences in VSTM retention and VSTM scanning but also of other, non-experimental portions of variance. Therefore, we identified two qualitatively different types of components for both hit rate and RT: (1) non-experimental components representing processes that remained constant irrespective of set size and (2) experimental components reflecting processes that increased as a function of set size. For RT, intelligence was negatively associated with the non-experimental components, but was unrelated to the experimental components assumed to represent variability in VSTM scanning speed. This finding indicates that individual differences in basic processing speed, rather than in speed of VSTM scanning, differentiates between high- and low-intelligent individuals. For hit rate, the experimental component constituting individual differences in VSTM retention was positively related to intelligence. The non-experimental components of hit rate, representing variability in basal processes, however, were not associated with intelligence. By decomposing VSTM functioning into non-experimental and experimental components, significant associations with intelligence were revealed that otherwise might have been obscured.

Phenotypic variability in familial combined pituitary hormone deficiency caused by a PROP1 gene mutation resulting in the substitution of Arg-->Cys at codon 120 (R120C).

As pituitary function depends on the integrity of the hypothalamic-pituitary axis, any defect in the development and organogenesis of this gland may account for a form of combined pituitary hormone deficiency (CPHD). A mutation in a novel, tissue-specific, paired-like homeodomain transcription factor, termed Prophet of Pit-1 (PROP1), has been identified as causing the Ames dwarf (df) mouse phenotype, and thereafter, different PROP1 gene alterations have been found in humans with CPHD. We report on the follow-up of two consanguineous families (n = 12), with five subjects affected with CPHD (three males and two females) caused by the same nucleotide C to T transition, resulting in the substitution of Arg-->Cys in PROP1 at codon 120. Importantly, there is a variability of phenotype, even among patients with the same mutation. The age at diagnosis was dependent on the severity of symptoms, ranging from 9 months to 8 yr. Although in one patient TSH deficiency was the first symptom of the disorder, all patients became symptomatic by exhibiting severe growth retardation and failure to thrive, which was mainly caused by GH deficiency (n = 4). The secretion of the pituitary-derived hormones (GH, PRL, TSH, LH, and FSH) declined gradually with age, following a different pattern in each individual; therefore, the deficiencies developed over a variable period of time. All of the subjects entered puberty spontaneously, and the two females also experienced menarche and periods before a replacement therapy was necessary.

Variability between laboratories performing coagulation tests with identical platforms: a nationwide evaluation study.

BACKGROUND While the assessment of analytical precision within medical laboratories has received much attention in scientific enquiry, the degree of as well as the sources causing variation between them remains incompletely understood. In this study, we quantified the variance components when performing coagulation tests with identical analytical platforms in different laboratories and computed intraclass correlations coefficients (ICC) for each coagulation test. METHODS Data from eight laboratories measuring fibrinogen twice in twenty healthy subjects with one out of 3 different platforms and single measurements of prothrombin time (PT), and coagulation factors II, V, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI and XIII were analysed. By platform, the variance components of (i) the subjects, (ii) the laboratory and the technician and (iii) the total variance were obtained for fibrinogen as well as (i) and (iii) for the remaining factors using ANOVA. RESULTS The variability for fibrinogen measurements within a laboratory ranged from 0.02 to 0.04, the variability between laboratories ranged from 0.006 to 0.097. The ICC for fibrinogen ranged from 0.37 to 0.66 and from 0.19 to 0.80 for PT between the platforms. For the remaining factors the ICC's ranged from 0.04 (FII) to 0.93 (FVIII). CONCLUSIONS Variance components that could be attributed to technicians or laboratory procedures were substantial, led to disappointingly low intraclass correlation coefficients for several factors and were pronounced for some of the platforms. Our findings call for sustained efforts to raise the level of standardization of structures and procedures involved in the quantification of coagulation factors.

Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.

Decadal-scale variability in hazardous winds in northern Switzerland since end of the 19th century

The decadal-scale variability in winter hazardous winds in northern Switzerland from 1871 to present is investigated in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR). Independent wind speed measurements taken at Zurich climate station show that the interannual and decadal variability in hazardous winds in northern Switzerland is realistically represented in the 20CR. Both time series exhibit pronounced decadal-scale variability with periods between approximately 36 and 47 years. At these periodicities, the hazardous wind variability in northern Switzerland is positively correlated with the variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation, however the strength and statistical significance of their co-variability varies over time.

Time of emergence of trends in ocean biogeochemistry

For the detection of climate change, not only the magnitude of a trend signal is of significance. An essential issue is the time period required by the trend to be detectable in the first place. An illustrative measure for this is time of emergence (ToE), that is, the point in time when a signal finally emerges from the background noise of natural variability. We investigate the ToE of trend signals in different biogeochemical and physical surface variables utilizing a multi-model ensemble comprising simulations of 17 Earth system models (ESMs). We find that signals in ocean biogeochemical variables emerge on much shorter timescales than the physical variable sea surface temperature (SST). The ToE patterns of pCO2 and pH are spatially very similar to DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon), yet the trends emerge much faster – after roughly 12 yr for the majority of the global ocean area, compared to between 10 and 30 yr for DIC. ToE of 45–90 yr are even larger for SST. In general, the background noise is of higher importance in determining ToE than the strength of the trend signal. In areas with high natural variability, even strong trends both in the physical climate and carbon cycle system are masked by variability over decadal timescales. In contrast to the trend, natural variability is affected by the seasonal cycle. This has important implications for observations, since it implies that intra-annual variability could question the representativeness of irregularly sampled seasonal measurements for the entire year and, thus, the interpretation of observed trends.

Vitamin D time profile based on the contribution of non-genetic and genetic factors in HIV-infected individuals of European ancestry

BACKGROUND Vitamin D deficiency is prevalent in HIV-infected individuals and vitamin D supplementation is proposed according to standard care. This study aimed at characterizing the kinetics of 25(OH)D in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals of European ancestry to better define the influence of genetic and non-genetic factors on 25(OH)D levels. These data were used for the optimization of vitamin D supplementation in order to reach therapeutic targets. METHODS 1,397 25(OH)D plasma levels and relevant clinical information were collected in 664 participants during medical routine follow up visits. They were genotyped for 7 SNPs in 4 genes known to be associated with 25(OH)D levels. 25(OH)D concentrations were analyzed using a population pharmacokinetic approach. The percentage of individuals with 25(OH)D concentrations within the recommended range of 20-40ng/ml during 12 months of follow up and several dosage regimens were evaluated by simulation. RESULTS A one-compartment model with linear absorption and elimination was used to describe 25(OH)D pharmacokinetics, while integrating endogenous baseline plasma concentrations. Covariate analyses confirmed the effect of seasonality, body mass index, smoking habits, the analytical method, darunavir/r and the genetic variant in GC (rs2282679) on 25(OH)D concentrations. 11% of the interindividual variability in 25(OH)D levels was explained by seasonality and other non-genetic covariates and 1% by genetics. The optimal supplementation for severe vitamin D deficient patients was 300000 IU two times per year. CONCLUSIONS This analysis allowed identifying factors associated with 25(OH)D plasma levels in HIV-infected individuals. Improvement of dosage regimen and timing of vitamin D supplementation is proposed based on those results.