The loss of trust in the European Union during the great recession since 2007: The role of heuristics from the national political system

How can we explain the decline in support for the European Union (EU) and the idea of European integration after the onset of the great recession in the fall of 2007? Did the economic crisis and the austerity policies that the EU imposed—in tandem with the IMF—on several member countries help cause this drop? While there is some evidence for this direct effect of EU policies, we find that the most significant determinant of trust and support for the EU remains the level of trust in national governments. Based on cue theory and using concepts of diffuse and specific support, we find that support for the EU is derived from evaluations of national politics and policy, which Europeans know far better than the remote political system of the EU. This effect, however, is somewhat muted for those sophisticated Europeans that are more knowledgeable about the EU and are able to form opinions about it independently of the national contexts in which they live. We also find that the recent economic crisis has led to a discernible increase in the number of those who are disillusioned with politics both at the national and the supranational level. We analyze 133 national surveys from 27 EU countries by estimating a series of cross-classified multilevel logistic regression models.

Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

Theoretical models of planetary system formation: mass vs. semi-major axis

Context. Planet formation models have been developed during the past years to try to reproduce what has been observed of both the solar system and the extrasolar planets. Some of these models have partially succeeded, but they focus on massive planets and, for the sake of simplicity, exclude planets belonging to planetary systems. However, more and more planets are now found in planetary systems. This tendency, which is a result of radial velocity, transit, and direct imaging surveys, seems to be even more pronounced for low-mass planets. These new observations require improving planet formation models, including new physics, and considering the formation of systems. Aims: In a recent series of papers, we have presented some improvements in the physics of our models, focussing in particular on the internal structure of forming planets, and on the computation of the excitation state of planetesimals and their resulting accretion rate. In this paper, we focus on the concurrent effect of the formation of more than one planet in the same protoplanetary disc and show the effect, in terms of architecture and composition of this multiplicity. Methods: We used an N-body calculation including collision detection to compute the orbital evolution of a planetary system. Moreover, we describe the effect of competition for accretion of gas and solids, as well as the effect of gravitational interactions between planets. Results: We show that the masses and semi-major axes of planets are modified by both the effect of competition and gravitational interactions. We also present the effect of the assumed number of forming planets in the same system (a free parameter of the model), as well as the effect of the inclination and eccentricity damping. We find that the fraction of ejected planets increases from nearly 0 to 8% as we change the number of embryos we seed the system with from 2 to 20 planetary embryos. Moreover, our calculations show that, when considering planets more massive than ~5 M⊕, simulations with 10 or 20 planetary embryos statistically give the same results in terms of mass function and period distribution.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

An Early-Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events Based on Fusion of Adaptive Prediction Models

Introduction: Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia / hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy. Methods: The EWS is based on the combination of data-driven online adaptive prediction models and a warning algorithm. Three modeling approaches have been investigated: (i) autoregressive (ARX) models, (ii) auto-regressive with an output correction module (cARX) models, and (iii) recurrent neural network (RNN) models. The warning algorithm performs postprocessing of the models′ outputs and issues alerts if upcoming hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events are detected. Fusion of the cARX and RNN models, due to their complementary prediction performances, resulted in the hybrid autoregressive with an output correction module/recurrent neural network (cARN)-based EWS. Results: The EWS was evaluated on 23 T1DM patients under SAP therapy. The ARX-based system achieved hypoglycemic (hyperglycemic) event prediction with median values of accuracy of 100.0% (100.0%), detection time of 10.0 (8.0) min, and daily false alarms of 0.7 (0.5). The respective values for the cARX-based system were 100.0% (100.0%), 17.5 (14.8) min, and 1.5 (1.3) and, for the RNN-based system, were 100.0% (92.0%), 8.4 (7.0) min, and 0.1 (0.2). The hybrid cARN-based EWS presented outperforming results with 100.0% (100.0%) prediction accuracy, detection 16.7 (14.7) min in advance, and 0.8 (0.8) daily false alarms. Conclusion: Combined use of cARX and RNN models for the development of an EWS outperformed the single use of each model, achieving accurate and prompt event prediction with few false alarms, thus providing increased safety and comfort.

ANALYTICAL MODELS OF EXOPLANETARY ATMOSPHERES. I. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS VIA THE SHALLOW WATER SYSTEM

Within the context of exoplanetary atmospheres, we present a comprehensive linear analysis of forced, damped, magnetized shallow water systems, exploring the effects of dimensionality, geometry (Cartesian, pseudo-spherical, and spherical), rotation, magnetic tension, and hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction. Across a broad range of conditions, we find that the key governing equation for atmospheres and quantum harmonic oscillators are identical, even when forcing (stellar irradiation), sources of friction (molecular viscosity, Rayleigh drag, and magnetic drag), and magnetic tension are included. The global atmospheric structure is largely controlled by a single key parameter that involves the Rossby and Prandtl numbers. This near-universality breaks down when either molecular viscosity or magnetic drag acts non-uniformly across latitude or a poloidal magnetic field is present, suggesting that these effects will introduce qualitative changes to the familiar chevron-shaped feature witnessed in simulations of atmospheric circulation. We also find that hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction have dissimilar phase signatures and affect the flow in fundamentally different ways, implying that using Rayleigh drag to mimic magnetic drag is inaccurate. We exhaustively lay down the theoretical formalism (dispersion relations, governing equations, and time-dependent wave solutions) for a broad suite of models. In all situations, we derive the steady state of an atmosphere, which is relevant to interpreting infrared phase and eclipse maps of exoplanetary atmospheres. We elucidate a pinching effect that confines the atmospheric structure to be near the equator. Our suite of analytical models may be used to develop decisively physical intuition and as a reference point for three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of atmospheric circulation.

Evaluating the Quality and Accuracy of TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Models at Archaeological Sites in the Cilician Plain, Turkey

Satellite remote sensing provides a powerful instrument for mapping and monitoring traces of historical settlements and infrastructure, not only in distant areas and crisis regions. It helps archaeologists to embed their findings from field surveys into the broader context of the landscape. With the start of the TanDEM-X mission, spatially explicit 3D-information is available to researchers at an unprecedented resolution worldwide. We examined different experimental TanDEM-X digital elevation models (DEM) that were processed from two different imaging modes (Stripmap/High Resolution Spotlight) using the operational alternating bistatic acquisition mode. The quality and accuracy of the experimental DEM products was compared to other available DEM products and a high precision archaeological field survey. The results indicate the potential of TanDEM-X Stripmap (SM) data for mapping surface elements at regional scale. For the alluvial plain of Cilicia, a suspected palaeochannel could be reconstructed. At the local scale, DEM products from TanDEM-X High Resolution Spotlight (HS) mode were processed at 2 m spatial resolution using a merge of two monostatic/bistatic interferograms. The absolute and relative vertical accuracy of the outcome meet the specification of high resolution elevation data (HRE) standards from the National System for Geospatial Intelligence (NSG) at the HRE20 level.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Immune cell trafficking across the barriers of the central nervous system in multiple sclerosis and stroke

Each year about 650,000 Europeans die from stroke and a similar number lives with the sequelae of multiple sclerosis (MS). Stroke and MS differ in their etiology. Although cause and likewise clinical presentation set the two diseases apart, they share common downstream mechanisms that lead to damage and recovery. Demyelination and axonal injury are characteristics of MS but are also observed in stroke. Conversely, hallmarks of stroke, such as vascular impairment and neurodegeneration, are found in MS. However, the most conspicuous common feature is the marked neuroinflammatory response, marked by glia cell activation and immune cell influx. In MS and stroke the blood-brain barrier is disrupted allowing bone marrow-derived macrophages to invade the brain in support of the resident microglia. In addition, there is a massive invasion of auto-reactive T-cells into the brain of patients with MS. Though less pronounced a similar phenomenon is also found in ischemic lesions. Not surprisingly, the two diseases also resemble each other at the level of gene expression and the biosynthesis of other proinflammatory mediators. While MS has traditionally been considered to be an autoimmune neuroinflammatory disorder, the role of inflammation for cerebral ischemia has only been recognized later. In the case of MS the long track record as neuroinflammatory disease has paid off with respect to treatment options. There are now about a dozen of approved drugs for the treatment of MS that specifically target neuroinflammation by modulating the immune system. Interestingly, experimental work demonstrated that drugs that are in routine use to mitigate neuroinflammation in MS may also work in stroke models. Examples include Fingolimod, glatiramer acetate, and antibodies blocking the leukocyte integrin VLA-4. Moreover, therapeutic strategies that were discovered in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), the animal model of MS, turned out to be also effective in experimental stroke models. This suggests that previous achievements in MS research may be relevant for stroke. Interestingly, the converse is equally true. Concepts on the neurovascular unit that were developed in a stroke context turned out to be applicable to neuroinflammatory research in MS. Examples include work on the important role of the vascular basement membrane and the BBB for the invasion of immune cells into the brain. Furthermore, tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), the only established drug treatment in acute stroke, modulates the pathogenesis of MS. Endogenous tPA is released from endothelium and astroglia and acts on the BBB, microglia and other neuroinflammatory cells. Thus, the vascular perspective of stroke research provides important input into the mechanisms on how endothelial cells and the BBB regulate inflammation in MS, particularly the invasion of immune cells into the CNS. In the current review we will first discuss pathogenesis of both diseases and current treatment regimens and will provide a detailed overview on pathways of immune cell migration across the barriers of the CNS and the role of activated astrocytes in this process. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Neuro inflammation: A common denominator for stroke, multiple sclerosis and Alzheimer's disease, guest edited by Helga de Vries and Markus Swaninger.

Theoretical models of planetary system formation II. Post-formation evolution

Aims. We extend the results of planetary formation synthesis by computing the long-term evolution of synthetic systems from the clearing of the gas disk into the dynamical evolution phase. Methods. We use the symplectic integrator SyMBA to numerically integrate the orbits of planets for 100 Myr, using populations from previous studies as initial conditions. Results. We show that within the populations studied, mass and semimajor axis distributions experience only minor changes from post-formation evolution. We also show that, depending upon their initial distribution, planetary eccentricities can statistically increase or decrease as a result of gravitational interactions. We find that planetary masses and orbital spacings provided by planet formation models do not result in eccentricity distributions comparable to observed exoplanet eccentricities, requiring other phenomena, such as stellar fly-bys, to account for observed eccentricities.