AccessMod 3.0: computing geographic coverage and accessibility to health care services using anisotropic movement of patients

Background Access to health care can be described along four dimensions: geographic accessibility, availability, financial accessibility and acceptability. Geographic accessibility measures how physically accessible resources are for the population, while availability reflects what resources are available and in what amount. Combining these two types of measure into a single index provides a measure of geographic (or spatial) coverage, which is an important measure for assessing the degree of accessibility of a health care network. Results This paper describes the latest version of AccessMod, an extension to the Geographical Information System ArcView 3.×, and provides an example of application of this tool. AccessMod 3 allows one to compute geographic coverage to health care using terrain information and population distribution. Four major types of analysis are available in AccessMod: (1) modeling the coverage of catchment areas linked to an existing health facility network based on travel time, to provide a measure of physical accessibility to health care; (2) modeling geographic coverage according to the availability of services; (3) projecting the coverage of a scaling-up of an existing network; (4) providing information for cost effectiveness analysis when little information about the existing network is available. In addition to integrating travelling time, population distribution and the population coverage capacity specific to each health facility in the network, AccessMod can incorporate the influence of landscape components (e.g. topography, river and road networks, vegetation) that impact travelling time to and from facilities. Topographical constraints can be taken into account through an anisotropic analysis that considers the direction of movement. We provide an example of the application of AccessMod in the southern part of Malawi that shows the influences of the landscape constraints and of the modes of transportation on geographic coverage. Conclusion By incorporating the demand (population) and the supply (capacities of heath care centers), AccessMod provides a unifying tool to efficiently assess the geographic coverage of a network of health care facilities. This tool should be of particular interest to developing countries that have a relatively good geographic information on population distribution, terrain, and health facility locations.

Improving Management of Distributed Services Using Correlations and Predictions in SLA-Driven Cloud Computing Systems

Recent advancements in cloud computing have enabled the proliferation of distributed applications, which require management and control of multiple services. However, without an efficient mechanism for scaling services in response to changing environmental conditions and number of users, application performance might suffer, leading to Service Level Agreement (SLA) violations and inefficient use of hardware resources. We introduce a system for controlling the complexity of scaling applications composed of multiple services using mechanisms based on fulfillment of SLAs. We present how service monitoring information can be used in conjunction with service level objectives, predictions, and correlations between performance indicators for optimizing the allocation of services belonging to distributed applications. We validate our models using experiments and simulations involving a distributed enterprise information system. We show how discovering correlations between application performance indicators can be used as a basis for creating refined service level objectives, which can then be used for scaling the application and improving the overall application's performance under similar conditions.

Repeated and predictable patterns of ecotypic differentiation during a biological invasion: lake-stream divergence in parapatric Swiss stickleback

The relative importance of ecological selection and geographical isolation in promoting and constraining genetic and phenotypic differentiation among populations is not always obvious. Interacting with divergent selection, restricted opportunity for gene flow may in some cases be as much a cause as a consequence of adaptation, with the latter being a hallmark of ecologi- cal speciation. Ecological speciation is well studied in parts of the native range of the three-spined stickleback. Here, we study this process in a recently invaded part of its range. Switzerland was colonized within the past 140 years from at least three different colonization events involving differ- ent stickleback lineages. They now occupy diverse habitats, ranging from small streams to the pelagic zone of large lakes. We use replicated systems of parapatric lake and stream populations, some of which trace their origins to different invasive lineages, to ask (i) whether phenotypic divergence occurred among populations inhabiting distinct habitats, (ii) whether trajec- tories of phenotypic divergence follow predictable parallel patterns and (iii) whether gene flow constrains divergent adaptation or vice versa. We find consistent phenotypic divergence between populations occupying distinct habitats. This involves parallel evolution in several traits with known eco- logical relevance in independent evolutionary lineages. Adaptive divergence supersedes homogenizing gene flow even at a small spatial scale. We find evidence that adaptive phenotypic divergence places constraints on gene flow over and above that imposed by geographical distance, signalling the early onset of ecological speciation.