Effect of initial treatment strategy on survival of patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Several treatment strategies are available for adults with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma, but studies assessing two alternative standards of care-increased dose bleomycin, etoposide, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (BEACOPPescalated), and doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD)-were not powered to test differences in overall survival. To guide treatment decisions in this population of patients, we did a systematic review and network meta-analysis to identify the best initial treatment strategy. METHODS We searched the Cochrane Library, Medline, and conference proceedings for randomised controlled trials published between January, 1980, and June, 2013, that assessed overall survival in patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma given BEACOPPbaseline, BEACOPPescalated, BEACOPP variants, ABVD, cyclophosphamide (mechlorethamine), vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (C[M]OPP), hybrid or alternating chemotherapy regimens with ABVD as the backbone (eg, COPP/ABVD, MOPP/ABVD), or doxorubicin, vinblastine, mechlorethamine, vincristine, bleomycin, etoposide, and prednisone combined with radiation therapy (the Stanford V regimen). We assessed studies for eligibility, extracted data, and assessed their quality. We then pooled the data and used a Bayesian random-effects model to combine direct comparisons with indirect evidence. We also reconstructed individual patient survival data from published Kaplan-Meier curves and did standard random-effects Poisson regression. Results are reported relative to ABVD. The primary outcome was overall survival. FINDINGS We screened 2055 records and identified 75 papers covering 14 eligible trials that assessed 11 different regimens in 9993 patients, providing 59 651 patient-years of follow-up. 1189 patients died, and the median follow-up was 5·9 years (IQR 4·9-6·7). Included studies were of high methodological quality, and between-trial heterogeneity was negligible (τ(2)=0·01). Overall survival was highest in patients who received six cycles of BEACOPPescalated (HR 0·38, 95% credibility interval [CrI] 0·20-0·75). Compared with a 5 year survival of 88% for ABVD, the survival benefit for six cycles of BEACOPPescalated is 7% (95% CrI 3-10)-ie, a 5 year survival of 95%. Reconstructed individual survival data showed that, at 5 years, BEACOPPescalated has a 10% (95% CI 3-15) advantage over ABVD in overall survival. INTERPRETATION Six cycles of BEACOPPescalated significantly improves overall survival compared with ABVD and other regimens, and thus we recommend this treatment strategy as standard of care for patients with access to the appropriate supportive care.

Evaluation of control and surveillance strategies for classical swine fever using a simulation model

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.

Multi-scale micro-structure generation strategy for up-scaling transport in clays

Clays and claystones are used as backfill and barrier materials in the design of waste repositories, because they act as hydraulic barriers and retain contaminants. Transport through such barriers occurs mainly by molecular diffusion. There is thus an interest to relate the diffusion properties of clays to their structural properties. In previous work, we have developed a concept for up-scaling pore-scale molecular diffusion coefficients using a grid-based model for the sample pore structure. Here we present an operational algorithm which can generate such model pore structures of polymineral materials. The obtained pore maps match the rock’s mineralogical components and its macroscopic properties such as porosity, grain and pore size distributions. Representative ensembles of grains in 2D or 3D are created by a lattice Monte Carlo (MC) method, which minimizes the interfacial energy of grains starting from an initial grain distribution. Pores are generated at grain boundaries and/or within grains. The method is general and allows to generate anisotropic structures with grains of approximately predetermined shapes, or with mixtures of different grain types. A specific focus of this study was on the simulation of clay-like materials. The generated clay pore maps were then used to derive upscaled effective diffusion coefficients for non-sorbing tracers using a homogenization technique. The large number of generated maps allowed to check the relations between micro-structural features of clays and their effective transport parameters, as is required to explain and extrapolate experimental diffusion results. As examples, we present a set of 2D and 3D simulations and investigated the effects of nanopores within particles (interlayer pores) and micropores between particles. Archie’s simple power law is followed in systems with only micropores. When nanopores are present, additional parameters are required; the data reveal that effective diffusion coefficients could be described by a sum of two power functions, related to the micro- and nanoporosity. We further used the model to investigate the relationships between particle orientation and effective transport properties of the sample.

Generation of a murine hepatic angiosarcoma cell line and reproducible mouse tumor model

Hepatic angiosarcoma (AS) is a rare and highly aggressive tumor of endothelial origin with dismal prognosis. Studies of the molecular biology of AS and treatment options are limited as animal models are rare. We have previously shown that inducible knockout of Notch1 in mice leads to spontaneous formation of hepatic AS. The aims of this study were to: (1) establish and characterize a cell line derived from this murine AS, (2) identify molecular pathways involved in the pathogenesis and potential therapeutic targets, and (3) generate a tumor transplantation model. AS cells retained specific endothelial properties such as tube formation activity, as well as expression of CD31 and Von Willebrand factor. However, electron microscopy analysis revealed signs of dedifferentiation with loss of fenestrae and loss of contact inhibition. Microarray and pathway analysis showed substantial changes in gene expression and revealed activation of the Myc pathway. Exposing the AS cells to sorafenib reduced migration, filopodia dynamics, and cell proliferation but did not induce apoptosis. In addition, sorafenib suppressed ERK phosphorylation and expression of cyclin D2. Injection of AS cells into NOD/SCID mice resulted in formation of undifferentiated tumors, confirming the tumorigenic potential of these cells. In summary, we established and characterized a murine model of spontaneous AS formation and hepatic AS cell lines as a useful in vitro tool. Our data demonstrate antitumor activity of sorafenib in AS cells with potent inhibition of migration, filopodia formation, and cell proliferation, supporting further evaluation of sorafenib as a novel treatment strategy. In addition, AS cell transplantation provides a subcutaneous tumor model useful for in vivo preclinical drug testing.Laboratory Investigation advance online publication, 24 November 2014; doi:10.1038/labinvest.2014.141.

A mouse model of HIES reveals pro- and anti-inflammatory functions of STAT3.

Mutations of STAT3 underlie the autosomal dominant form of hyperimmunoglobulin E syndrome (HIES). STAT3 has critical roles in immune cells and thus, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), might be a reasonable therapeutic strategy in this disease. However, STAT3 also has critical functions in nonhematopoietic cells and dissecting the protean roles of STAT3 is limited by the lethality associated with germline deletion of Stat3. Thus, predicting the efficacy of HSCT for HIES is difficult. To begin to dissect the importance of STAT3 in hematopoietic and nonhematopoietic cells as it relates to HIES, we generated a mouse model of this disease. We found that these transgenic mice recapitulate multiple aspects of HIES, including elevated serum IgE and failure to generate Th17 cells. We found that these mice were susceptible to bacterial infection that was partially corrected by HSCT using wild-type bone marrow, emphasizing the role played by the epithelium in the pathophysiology of HIES.

Mechanical restoration and failure analyses of a hydrogel and scaffold composite strategy for annulus fibrosus repair

Unrepaired defects in the annulus fibrosus of intervertebral disks are associated with degeneration and persistent back pain. A clinical need exists for a disk repair strategy that can seal annular defects, be easily delivered during surgical procedures, and restore biomechanics with low risk of herniation. Multiple annulus repair strategies were developed using poly(trimethylene carbonate) scaffolds optimized for cell delivery, polyurethane membranes designed to prevent herniation, and fibrin-genipin adhesive tuned to annulus fibrosus shear properties. This three-part study evaluated repair strategies for biomechanical restoration, herniation risk and failure mode in torsion, bending and compression at physiological and hyper-physiological loads using a bovine injury model. Fibrin-genipin hydrogel restored some torsional stiffness, bending ROM and disk height loss, with negligible herniation risk and failure was observed histologically at the fibrin-genipin mid-substance following rigorous loading. Scaffold-based repairs partially restored biomechanics, but had high herniation risk even when stabilized with sutured membranes and failure was observed histologically at the interface between scaffold and fibrin-genipin adhesive. Fibrin-genipin was the simplest annulus fibrosus repair solution evaluated that involved an easily deliverable adhesive that filled irregularly-shaped annular defects and partially restored disk biomechanics with low herniation risk, suggesting further evaluation for disk repair may be warranted. Statement of significance Lower back pain is the leading cause of global disability and commonly caused by defects and failure of intervertebral disk tissues resulting in herniation and compression of adjacent nerves. Annulus fibrosus repair materials and techniques have not been successful due to the challenging mechanical and chemical microenvironment and the needs to restore biomechanical behaviors and promote healing with negligible herniation risk while being delivered during surgical procedures. This work addressed this challenging biomaterial and clinical problem using novel materials including an adhesive hydrogel, a scaffold capable of cell delivery, and a membrane to prevent herniation. Composite repair strategies were evaluated and optimized in quantitative three-part study that rigorously evaluated disk repair and provided a framework for evaluating alternate repair techniques.

Refining the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression: Disentangling the effects of genuine self-esteem and narcissism

A growing body of research supports the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression, which states that low self-esteem is a risk factor for depression. The goal of the present research was to refine the vulnerability model, by testing whether the self-esteem effect is truly due to a lack of genuine self-esteem or due to a lack of narcissistic self-enhancement. For the analyses, we used data from 6 longitudinal studies consisting of 2,717 individuals. In each study, we tested the prospective effects of self-esteem and narcissism on depression both separately for each construct and mutually controlling the constructs for each other (i.e., a strategy that informs about effects of genuine self-esteem and pure narcissism), and then meta-analytically aggregated the findings. The results indicated that the effect of low self-esteem holds when narcissism is controlled for (uncontrolled effect = -.26, controlled effect = -.27). In contrast, the effect of narcissism was close to zero when self-esteem was controlled for (uncontrolled effect = -.06, controlled effect = .01). Moreover, the analyses suggested that the self-esteem effect is linear across the continuum from low to high self-esteem (i.e., the effect was not weaker at very high levels of self-esteem). Finally, self-esteem and narcissism did not interact in their effect on depression; that is, individuals with high self-esteem have a lower risk for developing depression, regardless of whether or not they are narcissistic. The findings have significant theoretical implications because they strengthen the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression.

From metaphor to practice in the crafting of strategy

The editors of Strategy as Practice, Johnson, Langley, Melin and Whittington, illustrate theoretical perspectives and alternative methodologies of 'strategy as practice' research by reflecting and commenting on selected 'classic' research papers such as Buergi, Jacobs and Roos' "From metaphor to practice in the crafting of strategy". Their paper explores how the link between the hand and the mind might be exploited in the making of strategy. Using Mintzberg's image of a potter, Buergi et al. develop a three-level theoretical schema, progressing from the physiological to the psychological to the social to trace the consequences of the hand-mind link. They discuss their model in view of an indicative case of managers from a large telecommunications firm experimenting with a process for strategy making in which they actively use their hands to construct representations of their organization and its environment.

Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment.

Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs' roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.

Revisiting the ISN Flow Parameters, using a variable IBEX pointing strategy

The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) has observed the interstellar neutral (ISN) gas flow over the past 6 yr during winter/spring when the Earth's motion opposes the ISN flow. Since IBEX observes the interstellar atom trajectories near their perihelion, we can use an analytical model based upon orbital mechanics to determine the interstellar parameters. Interstellar flow latitude, velocity, and temperature are coupled to the flow longitude and are restricted by the IBEX observations to a narrow tube in this parameter space. In our original analysis we found that pointing the spacecraft spin axis slightly out of the ecliptic plane significantly influences the ISN flow vector determination. Introducing the spacecraft spin axis tilt into the analytical model has shown that IBEX observations with various spin axis tilt orientations can substantially reduce the range of acceptable solutions to the ISN flow parameters as a function of flow longitude. The IBEX operations team pointed the IBEX spin axis almost exactly within the ecliptic plane during the 2012-2014 seasons, and about 5° below the ecliptic for half of the 2014 season. In its current implementation the analytical model describes the ISN flow most precisely for the spin axis orientation exactly in the ecliptic. This analysis refines the derived ISN flow parameters with a possible reconciliation between velocity vectors found with IBEX and Ulysses, resulting in a flow longitude lambda∞ = 74.°5 ± 1.°7 and latitude beta∞ = -5.°2 ± 0.°3, but at a substantially higher ISN temperature than previously reported.

Value Creation in Family Firms: A Model of Fit

We propose a framework describing how family ownership can create or destroy value depending on the goals, resources, and governance of the family firm, which are each influenced by the family owners. Taking a contingency perspective, we suggest that a fit is required for all three elements – family- influenced goals, resources, and governance – for the family firm to flourish over generations. We conclude with a suggested research agenda indicating research opportunities at the nexus of these identified elements. Further we provide some guiding questions for practitioners that might stimulate fruitful discussions among family firm owners and managers about how to realize ‘‘fit.’’