A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

The use of hindcast climatic data is quite extended for multiple applications. However, this approach needs the support of a validation process to allow its drawbacks and, therefore, confidence levels to be assessed. In this work, the strategy relies on an hourly wind database resulting from a dynamical downscaling experiment, with a spatial resolution of 10 km, covering the Iberian Peninsula (IP), driven by the ERA40 reanalysis (1959–2001) extended by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis (2002–2007) and comprising two main steps. Initially, the skill of the simulation is evaluated comparing the quality-tested observational database (Lorente-Plazas et al., 2014) at local and regional scales. The results show that the model is able to portray the main features of the wind over the IP: annual cycles, wind roses, spatial and temporal variability, as well as the response to different circulation types. In addition, there is a significant added value of the simulation with respect to driving conditions, especially in regions with a complex orography. However, some problems are evident, the major drawback being the systematic overestimation of the wind speed, which is mainly attributed to a missrepresentation of frictional forces. The model skill is also lower along the Mediterranean coast and for the Pyrenees. In a second phase, the high spatio-temporal resolution of the pseudo-real wind database is used to explore the limitations of the observational database. It is shown that missing values do not affect the characterisation of the wind climate over the IP, while the length of the observational period (6 years) is sufficient for most regions, with only a few exceptions. The spatial distribution of the observational sampling schemes should be enhanced to improve the correct assessment of all IP wind regimes, particularly in some mountainous areas.

Constraining planet structure from stellar chemistry: the cases of CoRoT-7, Kepler-10, and Kepler-93

Aims. We explore the possibility that the stellar relative abundances of different species can be used to constrain the bulk abundances of known transiting rocky planets. Methods. We use high resolution spectra to derive stellar parameters and chemical abundances for Fe, Si, Mg, O, and C in three stars hosting low mass, rocky planets: CoRoT-7, Kepler-10, and Kepler-93. These planets follow the same line along the mass-radius diagram, pointing toward a similar composition. The derived abundance ratios are compared with the solar values. With a simple stoichiometric model, we estimate the iron mass fraction in each planet, assuming stellar composition. Results. We show that in all cases, the iron mass fraction inferred from the mass-radius relationship seems to be in good agreement with the iron abundance derived from the host star's photospheric composition. Conclusions. The results suggest that stellar abundances can be used to add constraints on the composition of orbiting rocky planets.

From stellar to planetary composition: Galactic chemical evolution of Mg/Si mineralogical ratio

Aims. The main goal of this work is to study element ratios that are important for the formation of planets of different masses. Methods. We study potential correlations between the existence of planetary companions and the relative elemental abundances of their host stars. We use a large sample of FGK-type dwarf stars for which precise Mg, Si, and Fe abundances have been derived using HARPS high-resolution and high-quality data. Results. A first analysis of the data suggests that low-mass planet host stars show higher [Mg/Si] ratios, while giant planet hosts present [Mg/Si] that is lower than field stars. However, we found that the [Mg/Si] ratio significantly depends on metallicity through Galactic chemical evolution. After removing the Galactic evolution trend only the difference in the [Mg/Si] elemental ratio between low-mass planet hosts and non-hosts was present in a significant way. These results suggest that low-mass planets are more prevalent around stars with high [Mg/Si]. Conclusions. Our results demonstrate the importance of Galactic chemical evolution and indicate that it may play an important role in the planetary internal structure and composition. The results also show that abundance ratios may be a very relevant issue for our understanding of planet formation and evolution.

Reanalysis of the Hamburg Storm Surge of 1962

In February 1962, Hamburg experienced its most catastrophic storm surge event of the 20th century. This paper analyses the event using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset. Responsible for the major flood was a strong low pressure system centred over Scandinavia that was associated with strong north-westerly winds towards the German North Sea coast – the ideal storm surge situation for the Elbe estuary. A comparison of the 20CR dataset with observational data proves the applicability of the reanalysis data for this extreme event.

The Storm Surge Event of the Netherlands in 1953

A disastrous storm surge hit the coast of the Netherlands on 31 January and 1 February 1953. We examine the meteorological situation during this event using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data set. We find a strong pressure gradient between Ireland and northern Germany accompanied by strong north-westerly winds over the North Sea. Storm driven sea level rise combined with spring tide contributed to this extreme event. The state of the atmosphere in 20CR during this extreme event is in good agreement with historical observational data

Aerological observations in the Tropics in the Early Twentieth Century

In the first decades of the 20th century, aerological observations were for the first time performed in tropical regions. One of the most prominent endeavours in this respect was ARTHUR BERSON’s aerological expedition to East Africa. Although the main target was the East African monsoon circulation, the expedition provided also other insights that profoundly changed meteorology and climatology. BERSON observed that the tropical tropopause was much higher and colder than that over midlatitudes. Moreover, westerly winds were observed in the lower stratosphere, apparently contradicting the high-altitude equatorial easterly winds that were known since the Krakatoa eruption (‘‘Krakatoa easterlies’’). The puzzle was only resolved five decades later with the discovery of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In this paper we briefly summarize the expedition of BERSON and review the results in a historical context and in the light of the current research. In the second part of the paper we re-visit BERSON’s early aerological observations, which we have digitized. We compare the observed wind profiles with corresponding profiles extracted from the ‘‘Twentieth Century Reanalysis’’, which provides global three-dimensional weather information back to 1871 based on an assimilation of sea-level and surface pressure data. The comparison shows a good agreement at the coast but less good agreement further inland, at the shore of Lake Victoria, where the circulation is more complex. These results demonstrate that BERSON’s observations are still valuable today as input to current reanalysis systems or for their validation.

Strong Down-Valley Low-Level Jets over the Atacama Desert: Observational Characterization

The near-surface wind and temperature regime at three points in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile is described using two-year multi-level measurements from 80-m towers located in an altitude range between 2100 and 2700 m ASL. The data reveal the frequent development of strong nocturnal drainage flows at all sites. Down-valley nose-shaped wind speed profiles are observed with maximum values occurring at heights between 20 m and 60 m AGL. The flow intensity shows considerable inter-daily variability and a seasonal modulation of maximum speeds, which in the cold season can attain hourly average values larger than 20 m s−1. Turbulent mixing appears significant over the full tower layer, affecting the curvature of the nighttime temperature profile and possibly explaining the observed increase of surface temperatures in the down-valley direction. Nocturnal valley winds and temperatures are weakly controlled by upper-air conditions observed at the nearest aerological station. Estimates of terms in the momentum budget for the development and the quasi-stationary phases of the down-valley flows suggest that the pressure gradient force due to the near-surface cooling along the sloping valley axes plays an important role in these drainage flows. A scale for the jet nose height of equilibrium turbulent down-slope jets is proposed, based on surface friction velocity and surface inversion intensity. At one of the sites this scale explains about 70% of the case-to-case observed variance of jet nose heights. Further modeling and observational work is needed, however, in order to better define the dynamics, extent and turbulence structure of this flow system, which has significant wind-energy, climatic and environmental implications.

The 1872 Baltic Sea storm surge

On 13 November 1872, the Baltic Sea coast from Denmark to Pomerania was devastated by an extreme storm surge caused by high winds. This is still the strongest surge on record, and understanding its development can contribute to improved risk assessment and protection. In this paper we trace this event in sea-level pressure and wind data from the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR) and compare the results with other observation-based data sources. The analysis shows that, in the ensemble mean of 20CR, the general development is qualitatively well depicted, but with much reduced strength compared to other data sets. The same is true when selecting the ensemble member with maximum wind speeds.

Seismic stratigraphy of the Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize), a late Holocene climate and storm archive

Five seismic units may be identified in the similar to 8 m thick Holocene sediment package at the bottom of the Blue Hole, a 120 m deep sinkhole located in the atoll lagoon of Lighthouse Reef, Belize. These units may be correlated with the succession of an existing 5.85-m-long sediment core that reaches back to 1385 kyrs BP. The identification of seismic units is based on the fact that uniform, fine-grained background sediments show weak reflections while alternating background and coarser-grained event (storm) beds exhibit strong reflections in the seismic profiles. The main source of sediments is the marginal atoll reef and adjacent lagoon area to the east and north. Northeasterly winds and storms transport sediment into the Blue Hole, as seen in the eastward increase in sediment thickness, i.e., the eastward shallowing of the Blue Hole. Previous assumptions of much thicker Holocene sediment packages in the Blue Hole could not be confirmed. So far, close to 6-m-long cores were retrieved from the Blue Hole but the base of the sedimentary succession remains to be recovered. The nature of the basal sediments is unknown but mid-Holocene and possibly older, Pleistocene sinkhole deposits can be expected. The number of event beds identified in the Blue Hole (n = 37) during a 1.385 kyr-long period and the number of cyclones listed in historical databases suggest that only strong hurricanes (categories 4 and 5) left event beds in the Blue Hole sedimentary succession. Storm beds are numerous during 13-0.9 kyrs BP and 0.8-0.5 kyrs BP.

The Science of Exoplanets and Their Systems

A scientific forum on “The Future Science of Exoplanets and Their Systems,” sponsored by Europlanet* and the International Space Science Institute (ISSI)† and co-organized by the Center for Space and Habitability (CSH)‡ of the University of Bern, was held during December 5 and 6, 2012, in Bern, Switzerland. It gathered 24 well-known specialists in exoplanetary, Solar System, and stellar science to discuss the future of the fast-expanding field of exoplanetary research, which now has nearly 1000 objects to analyze and compare and will develop even more quickly over the coming years. The forum discussions included a review of current observational knowledge, efforts for exoplanetary atmosphere characterization and their formation, water formation, atmospheric evolution, habitability aspects, and our understanding of how exoplanets interact with their stellar and galactic environment throughout their history. Several important and timely research areas of focus for further research efforts in the field were identified by the forum participants. These scientific topics are related to the origin and formation of water and its delivery to planetary bodies and the role of the disk in relation to planet formation, including constraints from observations as well as star-planet interaction processes and their consequences for atmosphere-magnetosphere environments, evolution, and habitability. The relevance of these research areas is outlined in this report, and possible themes for future ISSI workshops are identified that may be proposed by the international research community over the coming 2–3 years.

Observations of the northern seasonal polar cap on Mars III: CRISM/HiRISE observations of spring sublimation

We analyze a series of targeted CRISM and HiRISE observations of seven regions of interest at high latitudes in the Northern polar regions of Mars. These data allow us to investigate the temporal evolution of the composition of the seasonal ice cap during spring, with a special emphasis on peculiar phenomena occurring in the dune fields and in the vicinity of the scarps of the North Polar Layered Deposits (NPLDs). The strength of the spectral signature of CO2 ice continuously decreases during spring whereas the one of H2O ice first shows a strong increase until Ls = 50°. This evolution is consistent with a scenario previously established from analysis of OMEGA data, in which a thin layer of pure H2O ice progressively develops at the surface of the volatile layer. During early spring (Ls < 10°), widespread jet activity is observed by HiRISE while strong spectral signatures of CO2 ice are detected by CRISM. Later, around Ls = 20-40°, activity concentrates at the dune fields where CRISM also detects a spectral enrichment in CO2 ice, consistent with "Kieffer's model" (Kieffer, H.H. [2007]. J. Geophys. Res. 112, E08005. doi:10.1029/2006JE002816) for jet activity. Effects of wind are prominent across the dune fields and seem to strongly influence the sublimation of the volatile layer. Strong winds blowing down the scarps could also be responsible for the significant spatial and temporal variability of the surface ice composition observed close to the NPLD.

Two Stable Equilibria of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre

The cyclonic circulation of the Atlantic subpolar gyre is a key mechanism for North Atlantic climate variability on a wide range of time scales. It is generally accepted that it is driven by both cyclonic winds and buoyancy forcing, yet the individual importance and dynamical interactions of the two contributions remain unclear. The authors propose a simplified four-box model representing the convective basin of the Labrador Sea and its shallow and deep boundary current system, the western subpolar gyre. Convective heat loss drives a baroclinic flow of relatively light water around the dense center. Eddy salt flux from the boundary current to the center increases with a stronger circulation, favors the formation of dense waters, and thereby sustains a strong baroclinic flow, approximately 10%–25% of the total. In contrast, when the baroclinic flow is not active, surface waters may be too fresh to convect, and a buoyancy-driven circulation cannot develop. This situation corresponds to a second stable circulation mode. A hysteresis is found for variations in surface freshwater flux and the salinity of the near-surface boundary current. An analytical solution is presented and analyzed.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

Lower-tropospheric humidity: climatology, trends and the relation to the ITCZ

The tropical region is an area of maximum humidity and serves as the major humidity source of the globe. Among other phenomena, it is governed by the so-called Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is commonly defined by converging low-level winds or enhanced precipitation. Given its importance as a humidity source, we investigate the humidity fields in the tropics in different reanalysis data sets, deduce the climatology and variability and assess the relationship to the ITCZ. Therefore, a new analysis method of the specific humidity distribution is introduced which allows detecting the location of the humidity maximum, the strength and the meridional extent. The results show that the humidity maximum in boreal summer is strongly shifted northward over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area and the Gulf of Mexico. These shifts go along with a peak in the strength in both areas; however, the extent shrinks over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area, whereas it is wider over the Gulf of Mexico. In winter, such connections between location, strength and extent are not found. Still, a peak in strength is again identified over the Gulf of Mexico in boreal winter. The variability of the three characteristics is dominated by inter-annual signals in both seasons. The results using ERA-interim data suggest a positive trend in the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic region from 1979 to 2010, showing an increased northward shift in the recent years. Although the trend is only weakly confirmed by the results using MERRA reanalysis data, it is in phase with a trend in hurricane activity�a possible hint of the importance of the new method on hurricanes. Furthermore, the position of the maximum humidity coincides with one of the ITCZ in most areas. One exception is the western and central Pacific, where the area is dominated by the double ITCZ in boreal winter. Nevertheless, the new method enables us to gain more insight into the humidity distribution, its variability and the relationship to ITCZ characteristics.