Gibbs point process approximation: Total variation bounds using Stein's method

We obtain upper bounds for the total variation distance between the distributions of two Gibbs point processes in a very general setting. Applications are provided to various well-known processes and settings from spatial statistics and statistical physics, including the comparison of two Lennard-Jones processes, hard core approximation of an area interaction process and the approximation of lattice processes by a continuous Gibbs process. Our proof of the main results is based on Stein's method. We construct an explicit coupling between two spatial birth-death processes to obtain Stein factors, and employ the Georgii-Nguyen-Zessin equation for the total bound.

Der schweizerische Bundesstaat von 1848 bis 1874: Mehrheits- oder Konsensusdemokratie?

Der vorliegende Beitrag geht der Frage nach, ob die schweizerische Demokratie bereits ab der Bundesstaatsgründung im Jahr 1848 eine ausgeprägte Konsensusdemokratie war. Zur Beantwortung dieser Fragestellung bedient sich die Studie des Konzepts von Arend Lijphart (2012) mit der Unterscheidung von Mehrheits- und Konsensusdemokratie. Anhand von Literatur- und Dokumentenanalysen wurden Lijpharts Indikatoren für den schweizerischen Bundesstaat von 1848–1874 codiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das politische System der neu gegründeten Schweiz auf Lijpharts Demokratiekarte insbesondere auf der horizontalen Machtteilungsdimension wie erwartet sehr nahe an der Position der USA zu liegen kommt.

Trends of mean and extreme temperature indices since 1874 at low-elevation sites in the Southern Alps

We describe the recovery of three daily meteorological records for the southern Alps (Domodossola, Riva del Garda, and Rovereto), all starting in the second half of the nineteenth century. We use these new data, along with additional records, to study regional changes in the mean temperature and extreme indices of heat waves and cold spells frequency and duration over the period 1874–2015. The records are homogenized using subdaily cloud cover observations as a constraint for the statistical model, an approach that has never been applied before in the literature. A case study based on a record of parallel observations between a traditional meteorological window and a modern screen shows that the use of cloud cover can reduce the root-mean-square error of the homogenization by up to 30% in comparison to an unaided statistical correction. We find that mean temperature in the southern Alps has increased by 1.4°C per century over the analyzed period, with larger increases in daily minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures. The number of hot days in summer has more than tripled, and a similar increase is observed in duration of heat waves. Cold days in winter have dropped at a similar rate. These trends are mainly caused by climate change over the last few decades.