28 resultados para Spatial lag regression model
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OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate intra- and post-operative risk using the American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) classification which is an important predictor of an intervention and of the entire operating programme. STUDY DESIGN: In this retrospective study, 4435 consecutive patients undergoing elective and emergency surgery at the Gynaecological Clinic of the University Hospital of Zurich were included. The ASA classification for pre-operative risk assessment was determined by an anaesthesiologist after a thorough physical examination. We observed several pre-, intra- and post-operative parameters, such as age, body-mass-index, duration of anaesthesia, duration of surgery, blood loss, duration of post-operative stay, complicated post-operative course, morbidity and mortality. The investigation of different risk factors was achieved by a multiple linear regression model for log-transformed duration of hospitalisation. RESULTS: Age and obesity were responsible for a higher ASA classification. ASA grade correlates with the duration of anaesthesia and the duration of the surgery itself. There was a significant difference in blood loss between ASA grades I (113+/-195 ml) and III (222+/-470 ml) and between classes II (176+/-432 ml) and III. The duration of post-operative hospitalisation could also be correlated with ASA class. ASA class I=1.7+/-3.0 days, ASA class II=3.6+/-4.3 days, ASA class III=6.8+/-8.2 days, and ASA class IV=6.2+/-3.9 days. The mean post-operative in-hospital stay was 2.5+/-4.0 days without complications, and 8.7+/-6.7 days with post-operative complications. Multiple linear regression model showed that not only the ASA classification contained an important information for the duration of hospitalisation. Parameters such as age, class of diagnosis, post-operative complications, etc. also have an influence on the duration of hospitalisation. CONCLUSION: This study shows that the ASA classification can be used as a good and early available predictor for the planning of an intervention in gynaecological surgery. The ASA classification helps the surgeon to assess the peri-operative risk profile of which important information can be derived for the planning of the operation programme.
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BACKGROUND: Exercise capacity after heart transplantation (HTx) remains limited despite normal left ventricular systolic function of the allograft. Various clinical and haemodynamic parameters are predictive of exercise capacity following HTx. However, the predictive significance of chronotropic competence has not been demonstrated unequivocally despite its immediate relevance for cardiac output. AIMS: This study assesses the predictive value of various clinical and haemodynamic parameters for exercise capacity in HTx recipients with complete chronotropic competence evolving within the first 6 postoperative months. METHODS: 51 patients were enrolled in this exercise study. Patients were included when at least >6 months after HTx and without negative chronotropic medication or factors limiting exercise capacity such as significant transplant vasculopathy or allograft rejection. Clinical parameters were obtained by chart review, haemodynamic parameters from current cardiac catheterisation, and exercise capacity was assessed by treadmill stress testing. A stepwise multiple regression model analysed the proportion of the variance explained by the predictive parameters. RESULTS: The mean age of these 51 HTx recipients was 55.4 +/- 13.2 yrs on inclusion, 42 pts were male and the mean time interval after cardiac transplantation was 5.1 +/- 2.8 yrs. Five independent predictors explained 47.5% of the variance observed for peak exercise capacity (adjusted R2 = 0.475). In detail, heart rate response explained 31.6%, male gender 5.2%, age 4.1%, pulmonary vascular resistance 3.7%, and body-mass index 2.9%. CONCLUSION: Heart rate response is one of the most important predictors of exercise capacity in HTx recipients with complete chronotropic competence and without relevant transplant vasculopathy or acute allograft rejection.
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We investigated if the MET-activating point mutation Y1253D influences clinical outcomes in patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSCC). The study population consisted of 152 HNSCC patients treated by hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone or concomitant with chemotherapy between September 1994 and July 2000. Tumors were screened for the presence of the MET-activating point mutation Y1253D. Seventy-eight patients (51%) received radiotherapy alone, 74 patients (49%) underwent radiotherapy concomitant with chemotherapy. Median patient age was 54 years and median follow-up was 5.5 years. Distant metastasis-free survival, local relapse-free survival and overall survival were compared with MET Y1253D status. During follow-up, 29 (19%) patients developed distant metastasis. MET Y1253D was detected in tumors of 21 out of 152 patients (14%). Distant metastasis-free survival (P = 0.008) was associated with MET Y1253D. In a multivariate Cox regression model, adjusted for T-category, only presence of MET Y1253D was associated with decreased distant metastasis-free survival: hazard ratio = 2.5 (95% confidence interval: 1.1, 5.8). The observed association between MET Y1253D-activating point mutation and decreased distant metastasis-free survival in advanced HNSCC suggests that MET may be a potential target for specific treatment interventions.
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BACKGROUND: The role of human herpesvirus (HHV)-8 in the pathogenesis of multiple myeloma and its pre-malignant state of monoclonal gammopathy is unclear. HHV-8 is transmitted by organ transplantation, representing a unique model with which to investigate primary HHV-8 infection. METHODS: The authors studied the incidence of clonal gammopathy in renal transplant recipients and correlated it with previous and recent HHV-8 infection. RESULTS: Clonal gammopathy was observed in 31 of 162 (19%) HHV-8-seronegative patients, in 5 of 17 (29%) HHV-8-seropositive patients, and in 9 of 24 (38%) HHV-8 seroconverters within 5 years after transplantation. Gammopathy was often transient, and no progression to myeloma was observed. Two patients with persistent gammopathy developed B-cell lymphoma. In a logistic regression model, HHV-8 serostatus of the graft recipient was significantly associated with subsequent development of gammopathy, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.9 and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.5 to 6.4 for an HHV-8-seropositive recipient and an RR of 2.9 and a 95% CI of 1.01 to 8.0 for seroconverters as compared with baseline (HHV-8 seronegative). Other significant variables were cytomegalovirus (CMV) serostatus and the intensity of immunosuppression (RR of 10.4 and 95% CI of 2.6-41.7 for a CMV-negative recipient with a CMV-positive donor vs. a CMV-negative recipient with a CMV-negative donor and RR of 17.6 and 95% CI of 2.0-150.8 if OKT3 was used vs. no use of antilymphocytic substances). CONCLUSIONS: Transplant recipients with HHV-8 infection are more likely to develop clonal gammopathy. However, this risk is much lower than the risk conferred by CMV infection and antilymphocytic therapy, arguing against a major role of HHV-8 infection in the pathogenesis of clonal plasma cell proliferation.
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Objective To examine the influence of a low dose dexmedetomidine infusion on the nociceptive withdrawal reflex and temporal summation in dogs during isoflurane anaesthesia. Study design Prospective experimental blinded cross-over study. Animals Eight healthy mixed breed dogs, body weight Mean +/- SD 26.5 +/- 8.4 kg and age 25 +/- 16 months. Methods Anaesthesia was induced with propofol and maintained with isoflurane (Fe'ISO 1.3%) delivered in oxygen and air. After stabilization, baseline recordings (time 0) were obtained, then a dexmedetomidine bolus (1 mug kg(-1) IV) followed by a continuous rate infusion (1 mug kg(-1) hour(-1) ) or saline placebo were administered. At times 10, 30 and 60 minutes after the initial bolus, electrical stimulations of increasing intensity were applied over the lateral plantar digital nerve, and administered both as single and as repeated stimuli. The resulting reflex responses were recorded using electromyography. Data were analysed using a multivariable linear regression model and a Kruskal Wallis test for single stimulation data, and repeated measures anova and paired t-test for repeated stimulation data. Results The AUC for the stimulus-response curves after single stimulation were similar for both treatments at time 0. At times 10, 30 and 60 the AUCs for the stimulus-response curves were significantly lower with dexmedetomidine treatment than with placebo. Temporal summation was evident in both treatments at times 0, 10, 30 and 60 starting from a stimulation intensity of 10 mA. The magnitude of temporal summation was smaller in dexmedetomidine than in placebo treated dogs at time 10, 30 and 60, but not at time 0. Conclusions During isoflurane anaesthesia, low dose dexmedetomidine suppresses the nociceptive reflex responses after single and repeated electrical stimulation. Clinical relevance This experimental study confirms previous reports on its peri-operative efficacy under clinical conditions, and further indicates that dexmedetomidine might reduce the risk of post-operative chronic pain development.
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Fossil pollen data from stratigraphic cores are irregularly spaced in time due to non-linear age-depth relations. Moreover, their marginal distributions may vary over time. We address these features in a nonparametric regression model with errors that are monotone transformations of a latent continuous-time Gaussian process Z(T). Although Z(T) is unobserved, due to monotonicity, under suitable regularity conditions, it can be recovered facilitating further computations such as estimation of the long-memory parameter and the Hermite coefficients. The estimation of Z(T) itself involves estimation of the marginal distribution function of the regression errors. These issues are considered in proposing a plug-in algorithm for optimal bandwidth selection and construction of confidence bands for the trend function. Some high-resolution time series of pollen records from Lago di Origlio in Switzerland, which go back ca. 20,000 years are used to illustrate the methods.
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Background: Accelerometry has been established as an objective method that can be used to assess physical activity behavior in large groups. The purpose of the current study was to provide a validated equation to translate accelerometer counts of the triaxial GT3X into energy expenditure in young children. Methods: Thirty-two children aged 5–9 years performed locomotor and play activities that are typical for their age group. Children wore a GT3X accelerometer and their energy expenditure was measured with indirect calorimetry. Twenty-one children were randomly selected to serve as development group. A cubic 2-regression model involving separate equations for locomotor and play activities was developed on the basis of model fit. It was then validated using data of the remaining children and compared with a linear 2-regression model and a linear 1-regression model. Results: All 3 regression models produced strong correlations between predicted and measured MET values. Agreement was acceptable for the cubic model and good for both linear regression approaches. Conclusions: The current linear 1-regression model provides valid estimates of energy expenditure for ActiGraph GT3X data for 5- to 9-year-old children and shows equal or better predictive validity than a cubic or a linear 2-regression model.
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PURPOSE To extend the capabilities of the Cone Location and Magnitude Index algorithm to include a combination of topographic information from the anterior and posterior corneal surfaces and corneal thickness measurements to further improve our ability to correctly identify keratoconus using this new index: ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X. DESIGN Retrospective case-control study. METHODS Three independent data sets were analyzed: 1 development and 2 validation. The AnteriorCornealPower index was calculated to stratify the keratoconus data from mild to severe. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm was applied to all tomography data collected using a dual Scheimpflug-Placido-based tomographer. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X formula, resulting from analysis of the Development set, was used to determine the logistic regression model that best separates keratoconus from normal and was applied to all data sets to calculate PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X. The sensitivity/specificity of PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X was compared with the original PercentProbabilityKeratoconus, which only uses anterior axial data. RESULTS The AnteriorCornealPower severity distribution for the combined data sets are 136 mild, 12 moderate, and 7 severe. The logistic regression model generated for ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X produces complete separation for the Development set. Validation Set 1 has 1 false-negative and Validation Set 2 has 1 false-positive. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for the logistic model produced using the ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X algorithm are 99.4% and 99.6%, respectively. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for using the original ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm are 89.2% and 98.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X provides a robust index that can detect the presence or absence of a keratoconic pattern in corneal tomography maps with improved sensitivity/specificity from the original anterior surface-only ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm.
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OBJECTIVES Although the use of an adjudication committee (AC) for outcomes is recommended in randomized controlled trials, there are limited data on the process of adjudication. We therefore aimed to assess whether the reporting of the adjudication process in venous thromboembolism (VTE) trials meets existing quality standards and which characteristics of trials influence the use of an AC. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We systematically searched MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library from January 1, 2003, to June 1, 2012, for randomized controlled trials on VTE. We abstracted information about characteristics and quality of trials and reporting of adjudication processes. We used stepwise backward logistic regression model to identify trial characteristics independently associated with the use of an AC. RESULTS We included 161 trials. Of these, 68.9% (111 of 161) reported the use of an AC. Overall, 99.1% (110 of 111) of trials with an AC used independent or blinded ACs, 14.4% (16 of 111) reported how the adjudication decision was reached within the AC, and 4.5% (5 of 111) reported on whether the reliability of adjudication was assessed. In multivariate analyses, multicenter trials [odds ratio (OR), 8.6; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.7, 27.8], use of a data safety-monitoring board (OR, 3.7; 95% CI: 1.2, 11.6), and VTE as the primary outcome (OR, 5.7; 95% CI: 1.7, 19.4) were associated with the use of an AC. Trials without random allocation concealment (OR, 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1, 0.8) and open-label trials (OR, 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1, 1.0) were less likely to report an AC. CONCLUSION Recommended processes of adjudication are underreported and lack standardization in VTE-related clinical trials. The use of an AC varies substantially by trial characteristics.
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The ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor acting as a virus vector constitutes a central mechanism for losses of managed honey bee, Apis mellifera, colonies. This creates demand for an easy, accurate and cheap diagnostic tool to estimate the impact of viruliferous mites in the field. Here we evaluated whether the clinical signs of the ubiquitous and mite-transmitted deformed wing virus (DWV) can be predictive markers of winter losses. In fall and winter 2007/2008, A.m. carnica workers with apparent wing deformities were counted daily in traps installed on 29 queenright colonies. The data show that colonies which later died had a significantly higher proportion of workers with wing deformities than did those which survived. There was a significant positive correlation between V. destructor infestation levels and the number of workers displaying DWV clinical signs, further supporting the mite's impact on virus infections at the colony level. A logistic regression model suggests that colony size, the number of workers with wing deformities and V. destructor infestation levels constitute predictive markers for winter colony losses in this order of importance and ease of evaluation.
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BACKGROUND In recent years, the occurrence and the relevance of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae infections in suckling pigs has been examined in several studies. Whereas most of these studies were focused on sole prevalence estimation within different age groups, follow-up of infected piglets or assessment of pathological findings, none of the studies included a detailed analysis of individual and environmental risk factors. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate the frequency of M. hyopneumoniae infections in suckling pigs of endemically infected herds and to identify individual risk factors potentially influencing the infection status of suckling pigs at the age of weaning. RESULTS The animal level prevalence of M. hyopneumoniae infections in suckling pigs examined in three conventional pig breeding herds was 3.6% (41/1127) at the time of weaning. A prevalence of 1.2% was found in the same pigs at the end of their nursery period. In a multivariable Poisson regression model it was found that incidence rate ratios (IRR) for suckling pigs are significantly lower than 1 when teeth grinding was conducted (IRR: 0.10). Moreover, high temperatures in the piglet nest during the first two weeks of life (occasionally >40°C) were associated with a decrease of the probability of an infection (IRR: 0.23-0.40). Contrary, the application of PCV2 vaccines to piglets was associated with an increased infection risk (IRR: 9.72). CONCLUSIONS Since single infected piglets are supposed to act as initiators for the transmission of this pathogen in nursery and fattening pigs, the elimination of the risk factors described in this study should help to reduce the incidence rate of M. hyopneumoniae infections and thereby might contribute to a reduced probability of high prevalences in older pigs.
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BACKGROUND Prophylactic measures are key components of dairy herd mastitis control programs, but some are only relevant in specific housing systems. To assess the association between management practices and mastitis incidence, data collected in 2011 by a survey among 979 randomly selected Swiss dairy farms, and information from the regular test day recordings from 680 of these farms was analyzed. RESULTS The median incidence of farmer-reported clinical mastitis (ICM) was 11.6 (mean 14.7) cases per 100 cows per year. The median annual proportion of milk samples with a composite somatic cell count (PSCC) above 200,000 cells/ml was 16.1 (mean 17.3) %. A multivariable negative binomial regression model was fitted for each of the mastitis indicators for farms with tie-stall and free-stall housing systems separately to study the effect of other (than housing system) management practices on the ICM and PSCC events (above 200,000 cells/ml). The results differed substantially by housing system and outcome. In tie-stall systems, clinical mastitis incidence was mainly affected by region (mountainous production zone; incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.73), the dairy herd replacement system (1.27) and farmers age (0.81). The proportion of high SCC was mainly associated with dry cow udder controls (IRR = 0.67), clean bedding material at calving (IRR = 1.72), using total merit values to select bulls (IRR = 1.57) and body condition scoring (IRR = 0.74). In free-stall systems, the IRR for clinical mastitis was mainly associated with stall climate/temperature (IRR = 1.65), comfort mats as resting surface (IRR = 0.75) and when no feed analysis was carried out (IRR = 1.18). The proportion of high SSC was only associated with hand and arm cleaning after calving (IRR = 0.81) and beef producing value to select bulls (IRR = 0.66). CONCLUSIONS There were substantial differences in identified risk factors in the four models. Some of the factors were in agreement with the reported literature while others were not. This highlights the multifactorial nature of the disease and the differences in the risks for both mastitis manifestations. Attempting to understand these multifactorial associations for mastitis within larger management groups continues to play an important role in mastitis control programs.
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Hunter syndrome (mucopolysaccharidosis type II) is a rare and life-limiting multisystemic disorder with an X-linked recessive pattern of inheritance. Short stature is a prominent feature of this condition. This analysis aimed to investigate the effects of enzyme replacement therapy with idursulfase on growth in patients enrolled in HOS - the Hunter Outcome Survey which is a multinational observational database. As of Jan 2012, height data before treatment were available for 567 of 740 males followed prospectively after HOS entry. Cross-sectional analysis showed that short stature became apparent after approximately 8 years of age; before this, height remained within the normal range. Age-corrected standardized height scores (z-scores) before and after treatment were assessed using piecewise regression model analysis in 133 patients (8-15 years of age at treatment start; data available on ≥ 1 occasion within +/-24 months of treatment start; growth hormone-treated patients excluded). Results showed that the slope after treatment (slope=-0.005) was significantly improved compared with before treatment (slope=-0.043) (difference=0.038, p=0.004). Analysis of covariates (age at treatment start, cognitive involvement, presence of puberty at the start of ERT, mutation type, functional classification), showed a significant influence on growth of mutation type (height deficit in terms of z-scores most pronounced in patients with deletions/large rearrangements/nonsense mutations, p<0.0001) and age (most pronounced in the 12-15-year group, p<0.0001). Cognitive involvement, pubertal status at the start of ERT and functional classification were not related to the growth deficit or response to treatment. In conclusion, the data showed an improvement in growth rate in patients with Hunter syndrome following idursulfase treatment.