A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions

This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent the majority of the climate diversity in the European sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement is found between the reconstructed and simulated climate features across Europe, supporting consistency in both products. Systematic biases between both data sets can be explained by a priori known deficiencies in the simulation. Simulations and reconstructions, however, largely differ in the temporal evolution of past climate for European subregions. In particular, the simulated anomalies during the Maunder and Dalton minima show stronger response to changes in the external forcings than recorded in the reconstructions. Although this disagreement is to some extent expected given the prominent role of internal variability in the evolution of regional temperature and precipitation, a certain degree of agreement is a priori expected in variables directly affected by external forcings. In this sense, the inability of the model to reproduce a warm period similar to that recorded for the winters during the first decades of the 18th century in the reconstructions is indicative of fundamental limitations in the simulation that preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, the simulated climate is a physically consistent data set, which can be used as a benchmark to analyse the consistency and limitations of gridded reconstructions of different variables. A comparison of the leading modes of SAT and PRE variability indicates that reconstructions are too simplistic, especially for precipitation, which is associated with the linear statistical techniques used to generate the reconstructions. The analysis of the co-variability between sea level pressure (SLP) and SAT and PRE in the simulation yields a result which resembles the canonical co-variability recorded in the observations for the 20th century. However, the same analysis for reconstructions exhibits anomalously low correlations, which points towards a lack of dynamical consistency between independent reconstructions.

Southern Hemisphere high-resolution palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of high-resolution Southern Hemisphere (SH) paleoarchives covering the last 2000 years. We identified 174 monthly to annually resolved climate proxy (tree ring, coral, ice core, documentary, speleothem and sedimentary) records from the Hemisphere. We assess the interannual and decadal sensitivity of each proxy record to large-scale circulation indices from the Pacific, Indian and Southern Ocean regions over the twentieth century. We then analyse the potential of this newly expanded palaeoclimate network to collectively represent predictands (sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation) commonly used in climate reconstructions. The key dynamical centres-of-action of the equatorial Indo-Pacific are well captured by the palaeoclimate network, indicating that there is considerable reconstruction potential in this region, particularly in the post AD 1600 period when a number of long coral records are available. Current spatiotemporal gaps in data coverage and regions where significant potential for future proxy collection exists are discussed. We then highlight the need for new and extended records from key dynamical regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Although large-scale climate field reconstructions for the SH are in their infancy, we report that excellent progress in the development of regional proxies now makes plausible estimates of continental- to hemispheric-scale climate variations possible.

Removal of enamel caries with an air abrasion powder

This study compared the efficiency of air abrasion on enamel caries with selective enamel powder (SEP) or with alumina powder and a negative and positive control group. Ninety-three extracted molars with non-cavitated incipient enamel lesions were selected. After embedding the roots in resin, each lesion was sectioned perpendicular to the surface and photographed. Each lesion was classified microscopically as having or not having dentin involvement. The lesions were distributed into four groups with an equal number of enamel caries with or without dentin involvement. Each group was treated differently: Group 1 had SEP abrasion, Group 2 had alumina abrasion, Group 3 had sodium bicarbonate abrasion (negative control) and Group 4 had bur treatment (positive control). The surface was rephotographed after treatment. Superimposition of the photographs identified areas of "correct-excavation," "under-excavation" and "over-excavation." There were no statistical differences between lesions treated with or without dentin involvement for Groups 2 through 4. However, in the SEP group, all measured areas were significantly influenced by dentin involvement. In pairwise comparisons, no statistical differences were found between the alumina and bur groups. The SEP group, however, showed statistically significant differences for each area compared to the alumina group in enamel caries without dentin involvement. SEP performed as well as alumina and bur in lesions with dentin involvement. SEP is different in its ablative properties toward caries with dentin involvement or no dentin involvement. In terms of dental treatment, SEP seems to have a diagnostic potential for enamel lesions before operative intervention in patients with high caries risk.

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century

Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

Meperidine and skin surface warming additively reduce the shivering threshold: a volunteer study

INTRODUCTION: Mild therapeutic hypothermia has been shown to improve outcome for patients after cardiac arrest and may be beneficial for ischaemic stroke and myocardial ischaemia patients. However, in the awake patient, even a small decrease of core temperature provokes vigorous autonomic reactions-vasoconstriction and shivering-which both inhibit efficient core cooling. Meperidine and skin warming each linearly lower vasoconstriction and shivering thresholds. We tested whether a combination of skin warming and a medium dose of meperidine additively would reduce the shivering threshold to below 34 degrees C without producing significant sedation or respiratory depression. METHODS: Eight healthy volunteers participated on four study days: (1) control, (2) skin warming (with forced air and warming mattress), (3) meperidine (target plasma level: 0.9 mug/ml), and (4) skin warming plus meperidine (target plasma level: 0.9 mug/ml). Volunteers were cooled with 4 degrees C cold Ringer lactate infused over a central venous catheter (rate asymptotically equal to 2.4 degrees C/hour core temperature drop). Shivering threshold was identified by an increase of oxygen consumption (+20% of baseline). Sedation was assessed with the Observer's Assessment of Alertness/Sedation scale. RESULTS: Control shivering threshold was 35.5 degrees C +/- 0.2 degrees C. Skin warming reduced the shivering threshold to 34.9 degrees C +/- 0.5 degrees C (p = 0.01). Meperidine reduced the shivering threshold to 34.2 degrees C +/- 0.3 degrees C (p < 0.01). The combination of meperidine and skin warming reduced the shivering threshold to 33.8 degrees C +/- 0.2 degrees C (p < 0.01). There were no synergistic or antagonistic effects of meperidine and skin warming (p = 0.59). Only very mild sedation occurred on meperidine days. CONCLUSION: A combination of meperidine and skin surface warming reduced the shivering threshold to 33.8 degrees C +/- 0.2 degrees C via an additive interaction and produced only very mild sedation and no respiratory toxicity.

Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU). The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010), which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

The role of upper-level dynamics and surface processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010

In July and August 2010 floods of unprecedented impact afflicted Pakistan. The floods resulted from a series of intense multi-day precipitation events in July and early August. At the same time a series of blocking anticyclones dominated the upper-level flow over western Russia and breaking waves i.e. equatorward extrusions of stratospheric high potential vorticity (PV) air formed along the downstream flank of the blocks. Previous studies suggested that these extratropical upper-level breaking waves were crucial for instigating the precipitation events in Pakistan. Here a detailed analysis is provided of the extratropical forcing of the precipitation. Piecewise PV inversion is used to quantify the extratropical upper-level forcing associated with the wave breaking and trajectories are calculated to study the pathways and source regions of the moisture that precipitated over Pakistan. Limited-area model simulations are carried out to complement the Lagrangian analysis. The precipitation events over Pakistan resulted from a combination of favourable boundary conditions with strong extratropical and monsoonal forcing factors. Above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean led to an elevated lower-tropospheric moisture content. Surface monsoonal depressions ensured the transport of moist air from the ocean towards northeastern Pakistan. Along this pathway the air parcel humidity increased substantially (60–90% of precipitated moisture) via evapotranspiration from the land surface. Extratropical breaking waves influenced the surface wind field substantially by enhancing the wind component directed towards the mountains which reinforced the precipitation.

Glacial–interglacial dynamics of Antarctic firn columns: comparison between simulations and ice core air-δ15N measurements

Correct estimation of the firn lock-in depth is essential for correctly linking gas and ice chronologies in ice core studies. Here, two approaches to constrain the firn depth evolution in Antarctica are presented over the last deglaciation: outputs of a firn densification model, and measurements of δ15N of N2 in air trapped in ice core, assuming that δ15N is only affected by gravitational fractionation in the firn column. Since the firn densification process is largely governed by surface temperature and accumulation rate, we have investigated four ice cores drilled in coastal (Berkner Island, BI, and James Ross Island, JRI) and semi-coastal (TALDICE and EPICA Dronning Maud Land, EDML) Antarctic regions. Combined with available ice core air-δ15N measurements from the EPICA Dome C (EDC) site, the studied regions encompass a large range of surface accumulation rates and temperature conditions. Our δ15N profiles reveal a heterogeneous response of the firn structure to glacial–interglacial climatic changes. While firn densification simulations correctly predict TALDICE δ15N variations, they systematically fail to capture the large millennial-scale δ15N variations measured at BI and the δ15N glacial levels measured at JRI and EDML – a mismatch previously reported for central East Antarctic ice cores. New constraints of the EDML gas–ice depth offset during the Laschamp event (~41 ka) and the last deglaciation do not favour the hypothesis of a large convective zone within the firn as the explanation of the glacial firn model–δ15N data mismatch for this site. While we could not conduct an in-depth study of the influence of impurities in snow for firnification from the existing datasets, our detailed comparison between the δ15N profiles and firn model simulations under different temperature and accumulation rate scenarios suggests that the role of accumulation rate may have been underestimated in the current description of firnification models.

Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.

A Biofilm Pocket Model to Evaluate Different Non-Surgical Periodontal Treatment Modalities in Terms of Biofilm Removal and Reformation, Surface Alterations and Attachment of Periodontal Ligament Fibroblasts.

BACKGROUND AND AIM There is a lack of suitable in vitro models to evaluate various treatment modalities intending to remove subgingival bacterial biofilm. Consequently, the aims of this in vitro-study were: a) to establish a pocket model enabling mechanical removal of biofilm and b) to evaluate repeated non-surgical periodontal treatment with respect to biofilm removal and reformation, surface alterations, tooth hard-substance-loss, and attachment of periodontal ligament (PDL) fibroblasts. MATERIAL AND METHODS Standardized human dentin specimens were colonized by multi-species biofilms for 3.5 days and subsequently placed into artificially created pockets. Non-surgical periodontal treatment was performed as follows: a) hand-instrumentation with curettes (CUR), b) ultrasonication (US), c) subgingival air-polishing using erythritol (EAP) and d) subgingival air-polishing using erythritol combined with chlorhexidine digluconate (EAP-CHX). The reduction and recolonization of bacterial counts, surface roughness (Ra and Rz), the caused tooth substance-loss (thickness) as well as the attachment of PDL fibroblasts were evaluated and statistically analyzed by means of ANOVA with Post-Hoc LSD. RESULTS After 5 treatments, bacterial reduction in biofilms was highest when applying EAP-CHX (4 log10). The lowest reduction was found after CUR (2 log10). Additionally, substance-loss was the highest when using CUR (128±40 µm) in comparison with US (14±12 µm), EAP (6±7 µm) and EAP-CHX (11±10) µm). Surface was roughened when using CUR and US. Surfaces exposed to US and to EAP attracted the highest numbers of PDL fibroblasts. CONCLUSION The established biofilm model simulating a periodontal pocket combined with interchangeable placements of test specimens with multi-species biofilms enables the evaluation of different non-surgical treatment modalities on biofilm removal and surface alterations. Compared to hand instrumentation the application of ultrasonication and of air-polishing with erythritol prevents from substance-loss and results in a smooth surface with nearly no residual biofilm that promotes the reattachment of PDL fibroblasts.

Differential effect of elevated intralabyrinthine pressure on ocular vestibular evoked myogenic potentials elicited by air conducted sound and bone conducted vibration

Recently, ocular vestibular evoked myogenic potentials (oVEMP) have emerged as a tool for assessment of utricular function. They are short-latency myogenic potentials which can be elicited in response to vestibular stimulation, e.g. by air-conducted sound (ACS) or bone-conducted vibration (BCV) (reviewed in (Kantner and Gurkov, 2012)). Otolithic afferent neurons trigger reflexive electromyographic activity of the extraocular muscles which can be recorded beneath the eye contralateral to the stimulated ear by use of surface electrodes.