Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr – driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980–2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

Characteristics and comprehensiveness of adult HIV care and treatment programmes in Asia-Pacific, sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas: results of a site assessment conducted by the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Collaboration

INTRODUCTION HIV care and treatment programmes worldwide are transforming as they push to deliver universal access to essential prevention, care and treatment services to persons living with HIV and their communities. The characteristics and capacity of these HIV programmes affect patient outcomes and quality of care. Despite the importance of ensuring optimal outcomes, few studies have addressed the capacity of HIV programmes to deliver comprehensive care. We sought to describe such capacity in HIV programmes in seven regions worldwide. METHODS Staff from 128 sites in 41 countries participating in the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS completed a site survey from 2009 to 2010, including sites in the Asia-Pacific region (n=20), Latin America and the Caribbean (n=7), North America (n=7), Central Africa (n=12), East Africa (n=51), Southern Africa (n=16) and West Africa (n=15). We computed a measure of the comprehensiveness of care based on seven World Health Organization-recommended essential HIV services. RESULTS Most sites reported serving urban (61%; region range (rr): 33-100%) and both adult and paediatric populations (77%; rr: 29-96%). Only 45% of HIV clinics that reported treating children had paediatricians on staff. As for the seven essential services, survey respondents reported that CD4+ cell count testing was available to all but one site, while tuberculosis (TB) screening and community outreach services were available in 80 and 72%, respectively. The remaining four essential services - nutritional support (82%), combination antiretroviral therapy adherence support (88%), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) (94%) and other prevention and clinical management services (97%) - were uniformly available. Approximately half (46%) of sites reported offering all seven services. Newer sites and sites in settings with low rankings on the UN Human Development Index (HDI), especially those in the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief focus countries, tended to offer a more comprehensive array of essential services. HIV care programme characteristics and comprehensiveness varied according to the number of years the site had been in operation and the HDI of the site setting, with more recently established clinics in low-HDI settings reporting a more comprehensive array of available services. Survey respondents frequently identified contact tracing of patients, patient outreach, nutritional counselling, onsite viral load testing, universal TB screening and the provision of isoniazid preventive therapy as unavailable services. CONCLUSIONS This study serves as a baseline for on-going monitoring of the evolution of care delivery over time and lays the groundwork for evaluating HIV treatment outcomes in relation to site capacity for comprehensive care.

Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454–1970

This paper presents a unique 517-yr long documentary data-based reconstruction of spring-summer (MAMJJ) temperatures for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from 1454 to 1970. It is composed of 25 partial series of winter grain (secale cereale) harvest starting dates (WGHD) that are partly based on harvest related bookkeeping of institutions (hospitals, municipalities), partly on (early) phenological observations. The resulting main Basel WGHD series was homogenised with regard to dating style, data type and altitude. The calibration and verification approach was applied using the homogenous HISTALP temperature series from 1774–1824 for calibration (r = 0.78) and from 1920–1970 for verification (r = 0.75). The latter result even suffers from the weak data base available for 1870– 1950. Temperature reconstructions based on WGHD are more influenced by spring temperatures than those based on grape harvest dates (GHD), because rye in contrast to vines already begins to grow as soon as sunlight brings the plant to above freezing. The earliest and latest harvest dates were checked for consistency with narrative documentary weather reports. Comparisons with other European documentarybased GHD and WGHD temperature reconstructions generally reveal significant correlations decreasing with the distance from Switzerland. The new Basel WGHD series shows better skills in representing highly climate change sensitive variations of Swiss Alpine glaciers than available GHD series.

Glacial–interglacial temperature change in the tropical West Pacific: A comparison of stalagmite-based paleo-thermometers

In the tropics, geochemical records from stalagmites have so far mainly been used to qualitatively reconstruct changes in precipitation, but several new methods to reconstruct past temperatures from stalagmite material have emerged recently: i) liquide vapor homogenization of fluid inclusion water ii) noble gas concentrations in fluid inclusion water, iii) the partitioning of oxygen isotopes between fluid inclusion water and calcite, and iv) the abundance of the 13C18O16O(‘clumped’) isotopologue in calcite. We present, for the first time, a direct comparison of these four paleo-thermometers by applying them to a fossil stalagmite covering nearly two glaciale interglacial cycles (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 12 e 9) and to two modern stalagmites, all from northern Borneo. The temperature estimates from the different methods agree in most cases within errors for both the old and recent samples; reconstructed formation temperatures of the recent samples match within 2-sigma errors with measured cave temperatures. However, slight but systematic deviations are observed between noble gas and liquide vapor homogenization temperatures. Whereas the temperature sensitivity of fluid inclusion d18O and clumped isotopes is currently debated, we find that the calibration of Tremaine et al. (2011) for fluid inclusion d18O and a synthetic calcite-based clumped isotope calibration (Ziegler et al., in prep.) yield temperature estimates consistent with the other methods. All methods (with the potential exception of clumped isotopes) show excellent agreement on the amplitude of glaciale interglacial temperature change, indicating temperature shifts of 4-5 C°. This amplitude is similar to the amplitude of Mg/Ca-based regional sea surface temperature records, when correcting for sea level driven changes in cave elevation. Our reconstruction of tropical temperature evolution over the time period from 440 to 320 thousand years ago (ka) adds support to the view that climate sensitivity to varying greenhouse forcing is substantial also in the deep tropics.

Lateglacial and Holocene vegetation belts in the Pirin Mountains (southwestern Bulgaria)

Pollen stratigraphy of a core 270 cm long from Lake Dalgoto at 2310 m in the Northern Pirin Mountains, southern Bulgaria, was treated by optimal partitioning and compared to a broken-stick model to reveal statistically significant pollen zones. The vegetational reconstructions presented here are based on pollen percentages and pollen influx, on comparisons of modern and fossil pollen spectra, and on macrofossil dates from other sites in the mountains. During the Younger Dryas (11000–10200 14C yr BP), an open xerophytic herb vegetation with Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae was widely developed around the lake. Deciduous trees growing at lower elevations contributed to the pollen rain deposited at the higher-elevation sampling sites. Specifically, from 10200 to 8500 yr BP, Quercus, Ulmus, Tilia and Betula expanded rapidly at low and intermediate elevations, and between 8500 and 6500 yr BP they extended to higher elevations close to the upper forest limit, which was formed by Betula pendula at about 1900 m. Coniferous species were limited in the region at this time. After 6500 yr BP, the expansion of conifers (Pinus peuce, P. sylvestris, P. mugo, Abies alba) at high elevations forced the deciduous trees downward. Between 6500 and 3000 yr BP, the forest limit at 2200 m was formed by P. peuce, and A. alba had its maximum vertical range up to 1900 m. Later the abundance and vertical range of P. peuce and A. alba were reduced. After 3000 yr BP, Picea expanded.

Intensification of tropical Pacific biological productivity due to volcanic eruptions

Major volcanic eruptions generate widespread ocean cooling, which reduces upper ocean stratification. This effect has the potential to increase nutrient delivery into the euphotic zone and boost biological productivity. Using externally forced last millennium simulations of three climate/Earth System models (Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC), Community Earth System Model (CESM), and LOch-Vecode-Ecbilt-CLio-agIsm Model (LOVECLIM)), we test the hypothesis that large volcanic eruptions intensify nutrient-driven export production. It is found that strong volcanic radiative forcing enhances the likelihood of eastern Pacific El Niño-like warming in CESM and LOVECLIM. This leads to an initial reduction of nutrients and export production in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, this initial response reverses after about 3 years in association with La Niña cooling. The resulting delayed enhancement of biological production resembles the multiyear response in MIROC. The model simulations show that volcanic impacts on tropical Pacific dynamics and biogeochemistry persist for several years, thus providing a new source for potential multiyear ecosystem predictability.