Higher order elicitability and Osband’s principle

A statistical functional, such as the mean or the median, is called elicitable if there is a scoring function or loss function such that the correct forecast of the functional is the unique minimizer of the expected score. Such scoring functions are called strictly consistent for the functional. The elicitability of a functional opens the possibility to compare competing forecasts and to rank them in terms of their realized scores. In this paper, we explore the notion of elicitability for multi-dimensional functionals and give both necessary and sufficient conditions for strictly consistent scoring functions. We cover the case of functionals with elicitable components, but we also show that one-dimensional functionals that are not elicitable can be a component of a higher order elicitable functional. In the case of the variance, this is a known result. However, an important result of this paper is that spectral risk measures with a spectral measure with finite support are jointly elicitable if one adds the “correct” quantiles. A direct consequence of applied interest is that the pair (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) is jointly elicitable under mild conditions that are usually fulfilled in risk management applications.

Ranking of parameters of pain hypersensitivity according to their discriminative ability in chronic low back pain

Low back pain is associated with plasticity changes and central hypersensitivity in a subset of patients. We performed a case-control study to explore the discriminative ability of different quantitative sensory tests in distinguishing between 40 cases with chronic low back pain and 300 pain-free controls, and to rank these tests according to the extent of their association with chronic pain. Gender, age, height, weight, body mass index, and psychological measures were recorded as potential confounders. We used 26 quantitative sensory tests, including different modalities of pressure, heat, cold, and electrical stimulation. As measures of discrimination, we estimated receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and likelihood ratios. Six tests seemed useful (in order of their discriminative ability): (1) pressure pain detection threshold at the site of most severe pain (fitted area under the ROC, 0.87), (2) single electrical stimulation pain detection threshold (0.87), (3) single electrical stimulation reflex threshold (0.83), (4) pressure pain tolerance threshold at the site of most severe pain (0.81), (5) pressure pain detection threshold at suprascapular region (0.80), and (6) temporal summation pain threshold (0.80). Pressure and electrical pain modalities seemed most promising and may be used for diagnosis of pain hypersensitivity and potentially for identifying individuals at risk of developing chronic low back pain over time.

Grey literature in meta-analyses of randomized trials of health care interventions

BACKGROUND: The inclusion of grey literature (i.e. literature that has not been formally published) in systematic reviews may help to overcome some of the problems of publication bias, which can arise due to the selective availability of data. OBJECTIVES: To review systematically research studies, which have investigated the impact of grey literature in meta-analyses of randomized trials of health care interventions. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Methodology Register (The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2005), MEDLINE (1966 to 20 May 2005), the Science Citation Index (June 2005) and contacted researchers who may have carried out relevant studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: A study was considered eligible for this review if it compared the effect of the inclusion and exclusion of grey literature on the results of a cohort of meta-analyses of randomized trials. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted from each report independently by two reviewers. The main outcome measure was an estimate of the impact of trials from the grey literature on the pooled effect estimates of the meta-analyses. Information was also collected on the area of health care, the number of meta-analyses, the number of trials, the number of trial participants, the year of publication of the trials, the language and country of publication of the trials, the number and type of grey and published literature, and methodological quality. MAIN RESULTS: Five studies met the inclusion criteria. All five studies showed that published trials showed an overall greater treatment effect than grey trials. This difference was statistically significant in one of the five studies. Data could be combined for three of the five studies. This showed that, on average, published trials showed a 9% greater treatment effect than grey trials (ratio of odds ratios for grey versus published trials 1.09; 95% CI 1.03-1.16). Overall there were more published trials included in the meta-analyses than grey trials (median 224 (IQR 108-365) versus 45(IQR 40-102)). Published trials had more participants on average. The most common types of grey literature were abstracts (55%) and unpublished data (30%). There is limited evidence to show whether grey trials are of poorer methodological quality than published trials. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review shows that published trials tend to be larger and show an overall greater treatment effect than grey trials. This has important implications for reviewers who need to ensure they identify grey trials, in order to minimise the risk of introducing bias into their review.

Tooth eruption: altered gene expression in the dental follicle of patients with cleidocranial dysplasia

OBJECTIVES The dental follicle plays an important role in tooth eruption by providing key regulators of osteogenesis and bone resorption. Patients with cleidocranial dysplasia (CCD) exhibit delayed tooth eruption in combination with increased bone density in the maxilla and mandible, suggesting disturbances in bone remodeling. The aim of this study was to determine the expression of genes relevant for tooth eruption and bone remodeling in the dental follicles of patients with CCD and normal subjects. MATERIAL AND METHODS Thirteen dental follicles were isolated from five unrelated patients with CCD, and fourteen dental follicles were obtained from 10 healthy individuals. All teeth were in the intraosseous phase of eruption. The expression of RANK, RANKL, OPG, and CSF-1 was determined by quantitative RT-PCR. RESULTS In patients with CCD, the mRNA levels of RANK, OPG, and CSF-1 were significantly elevated compared with the control group. Accordingly, the ratios of RANKL/OPG and RANKL/RANK mRNAs were significantly decreased in patients with CCD. CONCLUSION The observed alterations in the expression and ratios of the aforementioned factors in the dental follicle of CCD individuals suggest a disturbed paracrine signaling for bone remodeling that could be responsible for the impaired tooth eruption seen in these patients.

Tenofovir or zidovudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy after stavudine failure in southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is debate over using tenofovir or zidovudine alongside lamivudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) following stavudine failure. We analyzed outcomes in cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe METHODS: Patients aged ≥16 years who switched from a first-line regimen including stavudine to a ritonavir-boosted lopinavir-based second-line regimen with lamivudine or emtricitabine and zidovudine or tenofovir in seven ART programs in southern Africa were included. We estimated the causal effect of receiving tenofovir or zidovudine on mortality and virological failure using Cox proportional hazards marginal structural models. Its parameters were estimated using inverse probability of treatment weights. Baseline characteristics were age, sex, calendar year and country. CD4 cell count, creatinine and hemoglobin levels were included as time-dependent confounders. RESULTS 1,256 patients on second-line ART, including 958 on tenofovir, were analyzed. Patients on tenofovir were more likely to have switched to second-line ART in recent years, spent more time on first-line ART (33 vs. 24 months) and had lower CD4 cell counts (172 vs. 341 cells/μl) at initiation of second-line ART. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing tenofovir with zidovudine was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.59-1.68) for virologic failure and 1.40 (0.57-3.41) for death. CONCLUSIONS We did not find any difference in treatment outcomes between patients on tenofovir or zidovudine; however, the precision of our estimates was limited. There is an urgent need for randomized trials to inform second-line ART strategies in resource-limited settings.

Mounting behaviour in finishing pigs: Stable individual differences are not due to dominance or stage of sexual development

Every year around 100 million male piglets are castrated in the EU, usually without anaesthesia or post-operative analgesia. This surgical intervention is painful and stressful. Several main players within the pig industry have voluntarily agreed to end the practice of surgical pig castration in the EU by 2018. One alternative to castration is entire male pig production. However, entire males behave differently than castrates, for example, by performing more mounting behaviour, which is suggested to be a welfare problem. The aim of our study was to develop a comprehensive ethogram of different types of mounting and to investigate properties, causes and consequences of mounting behaviour in finishing pigs. The study included 80 entire male and 80 female pigs from two farrowing batches born six weeks apart. Mixed sex and single-sex housing of pigs are both common in pig farming, so to ensure our study was representative, the 160 pigs were assigned to social groups of 20 in three treatments: entire male pigs only (MM, 2 groups, n = 40), entire females only (FF, 2 groups, n = 40) and entire males and females mixed together (MF, 4 groups, n = 80). Measurements took place during the final six weeks before slaughter (between 63.5 and 105.5 kg). Observations of mounting behaviour on 12 days per batch suggested that: (i) males mounted more than females, (ii) within sex, there was no effect of treatment on the amount of mounting (although the statistical power of the study to detect these effects was low), and (iii) there were individual differences in mounting that were stable over time (within sex). Classification of mounting into different categories revealed that sexual mounting was most common overall and in males but only rare in females. Compared to other types of mounting (e.g. caused by crowding or during a fight), sexual mounts lasted longer and provoked more screaming by the recipient. There were no relationships between mounting behaviour on the one hand and dominance rank in food competition tests, the circulating levels of sex hormones (oestradiol, testosterone and progesterone) at the end of the study, the health scores (lameness and scratches) or weight gain on the other hand. The stable individual differences of mounting over time suggest that mounting behaviour is a trait of the individual rather than the appearance of random outbreaks. However, these differences in mounting cannot be explained by dominance behaviour or by differences in sex hormone concentrations that could indicate the onset of puberty. Mounting behaviour and in particular sexual mounting provoked high pitched screaming of the recipients indicating that mounting is a welfare problem. For the welfare assessment of entire male pig production the performance of mounting behaviour should be considered. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD): from biology to control

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is endemic worldwide. Together with classical swine fever and border disease viruses, it belongs to the genus Pestivirus of the family Flaviviridae. Most infections with BVDV take a transient, acute, course. Only rarely BVDV persists in its hosts. Due to the early time point of infection in utero, persistently infected (PI) animals are immunotolerant to the infecting non-cytopathic BVDV. In such animals the virus may mutate to a cytopathic biotype, causing lethal mucosal disease. In BVD-endemic regions, approximately 1% of the animals are PI. Removal of all PI animals leads to extinction of BVD. This approach to BVD eradication has been vindicated in Scandinavia. Following the same principles, regional and country-wide eradication programs are run in different parts of the world. These programs differ in the way PI animals are detected and in the role of vaccines. The Scandinavian two-step method of detecting PI animals is based on (i) the high level of seroprevalence in herds where PI animals are present and (ii) on testing all animals for virus in such herds. However, the high average herd seroprevalence in Switzerland made it impossible to define a reasonable threshold for virus testing. Therefore, all animals were directly tested for virus in the year 2008 and all newborn calves until the end of 2012, when the PI prevalence had dropped to 0.02%. Vaccination remains prohibited. Since 2013, surveillance for BVD is accomplished by serology. As a unique consequence of eradication, over 7500 viral strains are available to us for genetic studies.

The views of European clinicians on guidelines for long-term follow-up of childhood cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND Evidence-based guidelines are needed to guide effective long-term follow-up (LTFU) of childhood cancer survivors (CCS) at risk of late adverse effects (LAEs). We aimed to ascertain the use of LTFU guidelines throughout Europe, and seek views on the need for pan-European LTFU guidelines. PROCEDURES One expert clinician from each of 44 European countries was invited to participate in an online survey. Information was sought regarding the use and content of LTFU guidelines in the respondent's centre and country, and their views about developing pan-European LTFU guidelines. RESULTS Thirty-one countries (70%) responded, including 24 of 26 full EU countries (92%). LTFU guidelines were implemented nationally in 17 countries (55%). All guidelines included recommendations about physical LAEs, specific risk groups and frequency of surveillance, and the majority about psychosocial LAEs (70%), and healthy lifestyle promotion (65%). A minority of guidelines described recommendations about transition to age-appropriate LTFU services (22%), where LTFU should be performed (22%) and by whom (30%). Most respondents (94%) agreed on the need for pan-European LTFU guidelines, specifically including recommendations about surveillance for specific physical LAEs (97%), action to be taken if a specific LAE is detected (90%), minimum requirements for LTFU (93%), transition and health promotion (both 87%). CONCLUSIONS Guidelines are not universally used throughout Europe. However, there is strong support for developing pan-European LTFU guidelines for CCS. PanCareSurFup (www.pancare.eu) will collaborate with partners to develop such guidelines, including recommendations for hitherto relatively neglected topics, such as minimum LTFU requirements, transition and health promotion.

Assessing the reporting quality in abstracts of randomized controlled trials in leading journals of oral implantology.

AIM Abstracts of randomized clinical trials are extremely important as trial appraisal is often based on the information included here. The objective of this study was to assess the quality of the reporting of RCT abstracts in journals of Oral Implantology. MATERIAL AND METHODS Six leading Implantology journals were screened for RCTs between years 2008 and 2012. A 21-item modified CONSORT for abstracts checklist was used to examine the completeness of abstract reporting. Descriptive statistics and linear regression modeling were employed for data analysis. RESULTS One hundred and sixty three RCT abstracts were included in this study. The majority of the RCTs were published in the Clinical Oral Implants Research (42.9%). The mean overall reporting quality score was 58.6% (95% CI: 57.6-59.7). The highest score was noted in the European Journal of Oral Implantology (63.8%; 95% CI: 61.8-65.8). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that abstract quality score was related to publication journal and number of research centers involved. Most abstracts adequately reported interventions (89.0%), objectives (77.9%) and conclusions (74.8%) while failed to report randomization procedures, allocation concealment, effect estimate, confidence intervals, and funding. Registration of RCTs was not reported in any of the abstracts. CONCLUSIONS The reporting quality in abstracts of RCTs published in Oral Implantology journals needs to be improved. Editors and authors should be encouraged to endorse the CONSORT for abstracts guidelines in order to achieve optimal quality in abstract reporting.

Risk factors for patient-reported medical errors in eleven countries

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to identify common risk factors for patient-reported medical errors across countries. In country-level analyses, differences in risks associated with error between health care systems were investigated. The joint effects of risks on error-reporting probability were modelled for hypothetical patients with different health care utilization patterns. DESIGN Data from the Commonwealth Fund's 2010 lnternational Survey of the General Public's Views of their Health Care System's Performance in 11 Countries. SETTING Representative population samples of 11 countries were surveyed (total sample = 19,738 adults). Utilization of health care, coordination of care problems and reported errors were assessed. Regression analyses were conducted to identify risk factors for patients' reports of medical, medication and laboratory errors across countries and in country-specific models. RESULTS Error was reported by 11.2% of patients but with marked differences between countries (range: 5.4-17.0%). Poor coordination of care was reported by 27.3%. The risk of patient-reported error was determined mainly by health care utilization: Emergency care (OR = 1.7, P < 0.001), hospitalization (OR = 1.6, P < 0.001) and the number of providers involved (OR three doctors = 2.0, P < 0.001) are important predictors. Poor care coordination is the single most important risk factor for reporting error (OR = 3.9, P < 0.001). Country-specific models yielded common and country-specific predictors for self-reported error. For high utilizers of care, the probability that errors are reported rises up to P = 0.68. CONCLUSIONS Safety remains a global challenge affecting many patients throughout the world. Large variability exists in the frequency of patient-reported error across countries. To learn from others' errors is not only essential within countries but may also prove a promising strategy internationally.

Interlaboratory variability of MIB1 staining in well-differentiated pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

Neuroendocrine tumors (NET) are routinely graded and staged to judge prognosis. Proliferation index using MIB1 staining has been introduced to assess grading. There are vivid discussions on cutoff definitions, automated counting, and interobserver variability. However, no data exist regarding interlaboratory reproducibility for low proliferation indices which are of importance to discriminate between G1 and G2 NET. We performed MIB1 staining in three different university hospital-based pathology laboratories on a tissue micro array (TMA) of a well-characterized patient cohort, containing pancreatic NET of 61 patients. To calculate the proliferation index, number of positive tumor nuclei was divided by the total number of tumor nuclei. Labeling index was compared to mitotic counts in whole tissue sections and to clinical outcome. Linear regression analysis, intraclass comparison, and log-rank analysis were performed. Intraclass correlation showed moderate-to-fair agreement. Especially low proliferating tumors were affected by interlaboratory differences. Log-rank analysis was performed for each lab and resulted in three different cutoffs (5.0, 3.0, and 0.5 %). Every calculated cutoff stratified the patient cohort to a significant extent for the underlying stain (p < 0.001, <0.001, and <0.001) but showed no or lesser significance when applied to the other stains. Significant and relevant interlab differences for MIB1 exist. Since the MIB1 proliferation index influences grading, local cutoffs or external standardization should urgently be introduced to achieve reliability and reproducibility.

Statistical testing against baseline was common in dental research

OBJECTIVES To assess the presence of within-group comparisons with baseline in a subset of leading dental journals and to explore possible associations with a range of study characteristics including journal and study design. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Thirty consecutive issues of five leading dental journals were electronically searched. The conduct and reporting of statistical analysis in respect of comparisons against baseline or otherwise along with the manner of interpretation of the results were assessed. Descriptive statistics were obtained, and chi-square test and Fisher's exact were undertaken to test the association between trial characteristics and overall study interpretation. RESULTS A total of 184 studies were included with the highest proportion published in Journal of Endodontics (n = 84, 46%) and most involving a single center (n = 157, 85%). Overall, 43 studies (23%) presented interpretation of their outcomes based solely on comparisons against baseline. Inappropriate use of baseline testing was found to be less likely in interventional studies (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Use of comparisons with baseline appears to be common among both observational and interventional research studies in dentistry. Enhanced conduct and reporting of statistical tests are required to ensure that inferences from research studies are appropriate and informative.

Distribution and invasiveness of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes in Switzerland, a country with low antibiotic selection pressure, from 2001 to 2004

To describe the serotype-specific epidemiology of colonizing and invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates, which is important for vaccination strategies, we analyzed a total of 2,388 invasive and 1,540 colonizing S. pneumoniae isolates collected between January 2001 and December 2004 within two nationwide surveillance programs. We found that the relative rank orders of the most frequent serotypes (serotypes 1, 3, 4, 6B, 7F, 14, 19F, and 23F) differed among invasive and colonizing isolates. Serotypes 1, 4, 5, 7F, 8, 9V, and 14 had increased invasive potential, and serotypes/serogroups 3, 6A, 7, 10, 11, 19F, and 23F were associated with colonization. The proportion of pediatric serotypes was higher among children < 5 years old (48.5%) and persons > 64 years old (34.1%) than among other age groups (29.1%); it was also higher in West Switzerland (40.2%) than in other geographic regions (34.7%). Likewise, serotype-specific proportions of penicillin-resistant isolates for types 6B, 9V, 14, and 19F were significantly higher in West Switzerland. The relative frequency of pediatric serotypes corresponded with antibiotic consumption patterns. We conclude that the epidemiology of invasive and colonizing S. pneumoniae isolates is influenced by the serotype-specific potential for invasiveness, and therefore, surveillance programs should include colonizing and invasive S. pneumoniae isolates. Antibiotic selection pressure determines the serotype distribution in different age groups and geographic regions and therefore the expected direct and indirect effects of the 7-valent conjugate vaccine.

Tuberculosis in HIV-Negative and HIV-Infected Patients in a Low-Incidence Country: Clinical Characteristics and Treatment Outcomes

Background In Switzerland and other developed countries, the number of tuberculosis (TB) cases has been decreasing for decades, but HIV-infected patients and migrants remain risk groups. The aim of this study was to compare characteristics of TB in HIV-negative and HIV-infected patients diagnosed in Switzerland, and between coinfected patients enrolled and not enrolled in the national Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Methods and Findings All patients diagnosed with culture-confirmed TB in the SHCS and a random sample of culture-confirmed cases reported to the national TB registry 2000–2008 were included. Outcomes were assessed in HIV-infected patients and considered successful in case of cure or treatment completion. Ninety-three SHCS patients and 288 patients selected randomly from 4221 registered patients were analyzed. The registry sample included 10 (3.5%) coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS: the estimated number of HIV-infected patients not enrolled in the SHCS but reported to the registry 2000–2008 was 146 (95% CI 122–173). Coinfected patients were more likely to be from sub-Saharan Africa (51.5% versus 15.8%, P<0.0001) and to present disseminated disease (23.9% vs. 3.4%, P<0.0001) than HIV-negative patients. Coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS were asylum seekers or migrant workers, with lower CD4 cell counts at TB diagnosis (median CD4 count 79 cells/µL compared to 149 cells/µL among SHCS patients, P = 0.07). There were 6 patients (60.0%) with successful outcomes compared to 82 (88.2%) patients in the SHCS (P = 0.023). Conclusions The clinical presentation of coinfected patients differed from HIV-negative TB patients. The number of HIV-infected patients diagnosed with TB outside the SHCS is similar to the number diagnosed within the cohort but outcomes are poorer in patients not followed up in the national cohort. Special efforts are required to address the needs of this vulnerable population.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in a country with low tuberculosis incidence: role of immigration and HIV infection

Immigrants from high-burden countries and HIV-coinfected individuals are risk groups for tuberculosis (TB) in countries with low TB incidence. Therefore, we studied their role in transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Switzerland. We included all TB patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort and a sample of patients from the national TB registry. We identified molecular clusters by spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) analysis and used weighted logistic regression adjusted for age and sex to identify risk factors for clustering, taking sampling proportions into account. In total, we analyzed 520 TB cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2008; 401 were foreign born, and 113 were HIV coinfected. The Euro-American M. tuberculosis lineage dominated throughout the study period (378 strains; 72.7%), with no evidence for another lineage, such as the Beijing genotype, emerging. We identified 35 molecular clusters with 90 patients, indicating recent transmission; 31 clusters involved foreign-born patients, and 15 involved HIV-infected patients. Birth origin was not associated with clustering (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 3.43; P = 0.25, comparing Swiss-born with foreign-born patients), but clustering was reduced in HIV-infected patients (aOR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.93; P = 0.030). Cavitary disease, male sex, and younger age were all associated with molecular clustering. In conclusion, most TB patients in Switzerland were foreign born, but transmission of M. tuberculosis was not more common among immigrants and was reduced in HIV-infected patients followed up in the national HIV cohort study. Continued access to health services and clinical follow-up will be essential to control TB in this population.