Simulated winter circulation types in the North Atlantic and European region for preindustrial and glacial conditions

[1] Winter circulation types under preindustrial and glacial conditions are investigated and used to quantify their impact on precipitation. The analysis is based on daily mean sea level pressure fields of a highly resolved atmospheric general circulation model and focuses on the North Atlantic and European region. We find that glacial circulation types are dominated by patterns with an east-west pressure gradient, which clearly differs from the predominantly zonal patterns for the recent past. This is also evident in the frequency of occurrence of circulation types when projecting preindustrial circulation types onto the glacial simulations. The elevation of the Laurentide ice sheet is identified as a major cause for these differences. In areas of strong precipitation signals in glacial times, the changes in the frequencies of occurrence of the circulation types explain up to 60% of the total difference between preindustrial and glacial simulations.

Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Estimating the number of motor units using random sums with independently thinned terms

The problem of estimating the numbers of motor units N in a muscle is embedded in a general stochastic model using the notion of thinning from point process theory. In the paper a new moment type estimator for the numbers of motor units in a muscle is denned, which is derived using random sums with independently thinned terms. Asymptotic normality of the estimator is shown and its practical value is demonstrated with bootstrap and approximative confidence intervals for a data set from a 31-year-old healthy right-handed, female volunteer. Moreover simulation results are presented and Monte-Carlo based quantiles, means, and variances are calculated for N in{300,600,1000}.

Increased sensitivity in mapping task demand in visuospatial processing using reaction-time-dependent hemodynamic response predictors in rapid event-related fMRI

Searching for the neural correlates of visuospatial processing using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is usually done in an event-related framework of cognitive subtraction, applying a paradigm comprising visuospatial cognitive components and a corresponding control task. Besides methodological caveats of the cognitive subtraction approach, the standard general linear model with fixed hemodynamic response predictors bears the risk of being underspecified. It does not take into account the variability of the blood oxygen level-dependent signal response due to variable task demand and performance on the level of each single trial. This underspecification may result in reduced sensitivity regarding the identification of task-related brain regions. In a rapid event-related fMRI study, we used an extended general linear model including single-trial reaction-time-dependent hemodynamic response predictors for the analysis of an angle discrimination task. In addition to the already known regions in superior and inferior parietal lobule, mapping the reaction-time-dependent hemodynamic response predictor revealed a more specific network including task demand-dependent regions not being detectable using the cognitive subtraction method, such as bilateral caudate nucleus and insula, right inferior frontal gyrus and left precentral gyrus.

Perceptual Learning via Modification of Cortical Top-Down Signals

The primary visual cortex (V1) is pre-wired to facilitate the extraction of behaviorally important visual features. Collinear edge detectors in V1, for instance, mutually enhance each other to improve the perception of lines against a noisy background. The same pre-wiring that facilitates line extraction, however, is detrimental when subjects have to discriminate the brightness of different line segments. How is it possible to improve in one task by unsupervised practicing, without getting worse in the other task? The classical view of perceptual learning is that practicing modulates the feedforward input stream through synaptic modifications onto or within V1. However, any rewiring of V1 would deteriorate other perceptual abilities different from the trained one. We propose a general neuronal model showing that perceptual learning can modulate top-down input to V1 in a task-specific way while feedforward and lateral pathways remain intact. Consistent with biological data, the model explains how context-dependent brightness discrimination is improved by a top-down recruitment of recurrent inhibition and a top-down induced increase of the neuronal gain within V1. Both the top-down modulation of inhibition and of neuronal gain are suggested to be universal features of cortical microcircuits which enable perceptual learning.

Reduced neuronal efficacy in progressive mild cognitive impairment: a prospective fMRI study on visuospatial processing

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) often refers to the preclinical stage of dementia, where the majority develop Alzheimer's disease (AD). Given that neurodegenerative burden and compensatory mechanisms might exist before accepted clinical symptoms of AD are noticeable, the current prospective study aimed to investigate the functioning of brain regions in the visuospatial networks responsible for preclinical symptoms in AD using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Eighteen MCI patients were evaluated and clinically followed for approximately 3 years. Five progressed to AD (PMCI) and eight remained stable (SMCI). Thirteen age-, gender- and education-matched controls also participated. An angle discrimination task with varying task demands was used. Brain activation patterns as well as task demand-dependent and -independent signal changes between the groups were investigated by using an extended general linear model including individual performance (reaction time [RT]) of each single trial. Similar behavioral (RT and accuracy) responses were observed between MCI patients and controls. A network of bilateral activations, e.g. dorsal pathway, which increased linearly with increasing task demand, was engaged in all subjects. Compared with SMCI patients and controls, PMCI patients showed a stronger relation between task demand and brain activity in left superior parietal lobules (SPL) as well as a general task demand-independent increased activation in left precuneus. Altered brain function can be detected at a group level in individuals that progress to AD before changes occur at the behavioral level. Increased parietal activation in PMCI could reflect a reduced neuronal efficacy due to accumulating AD pathology and might predict future clinical decline in patients with MCI.

Similarities in the Subgingival Microbiota Assessed by a Curet Sampling Method at Sites With Chronic Periodontitis

Background: The goal of this study was to determine whether site-specific differences in the subgingival microbiota could be detected by the checkerboard method in subjects with periodontitis. Methods: Subjects with at least six periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PD) between 5 and 7 mm were enrolled in the study. Subgingival plaque samples were collected with sterile curets by a single-stroke procedure at six selected periodontal sites from 161 subjects (966 subgingival sites). Subgingival bacterial samples were assayed with the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method identifying 37 species. Results: Probing depths of 5, 6, and 7 mm were found at 50% (n = 483), 34% (n = 328), and 16% (n = 155) of sites, respectively. Statistical analysis failed to demonstrate differences in the sum of bacterial counts by tooth type (P = 0.18) or specific location of the sample (P = 0.78). With the exceptions of Campylobacter gracilis (P <0.001) and Actinomyces naeslundii (P <0.001), analysis by general linear model multivariate regression failed to identify subject or sample location factors as explanatory to microbiologic results. A trend of difference in bacterial load by tooth type was found for Prevotella nigrescens (P <0.01). At a cutoff level of >/=1.0 x 10(5), Porphyromonas gingivalis and Tannerella forsythia (previously T. forsythensis) were present at 48.0% to 56.3% and 46.0% to 51.2% of sampled sites, respectively. Conclusions: Given the similarities in the clinical evidence of periodontitis, the presence and levels of 37 species commonly studied in periodontitis are similar, with no differences between molar, premolar, and incisor/cuspid subgingival sites. This may facilitate microbiologic sampling strategies in subjects during periodontal therapy.

Overview of analytical approaches

The general model The aim of this chapter is to introduce a structured overview of the different possibilities available to display and analyze brain electric scalp potentials. First, a general formal model of time-varying distributed EEG potentials is introduced. Based on this model, the most common analysis strategies used in EEG research are introduced and discussed as specific cases of this general model. Both the general model and particular methods are also expressed in mathematical terms. It is however not necessary to understand these terms to understand the chapter. The general model that we propose here is based on the statement made in Chapter 3, stating that the electric field produced by active neurons in the brain propagates in brain tissue without delay in time. Contrary to other imaging methods that are based on hemodynamic or metabolic processes, the EEG scalp potentials are thus “real-time,” not delayed and not a-priori frequency-filtered measurements. If only a single dipolar source in the brain were active, the temporal dynamics of the activity of that source would be exactly reproduced by the temporal dynamics observed in the scalp potentials produced by that source. This is illustrated in Figure 5.1, where the expected EEG signal of a single source with spindle-like dynamics in time has been computed. The dynamics of the scalp potentials exactly reproduce the dynamics of the source. The amplitude of the measured potentials depends on the relation between the location and orientation of the active source, its strength and the electrode position.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Modeling the stratospheric warming following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption: uncertainties in aerosol extinctions

In terms of atmospheric impact, the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (1991) is the best characterized large eruption on record. We investigate here the model-derived stratospheric warming following the Pinatubo eruption as derived from SAGE II extinction data including recent improvements in the processing algorithm. This method, termed SAGE_4λ, makes use of the four wavelengths (385, 452, 525 and 1024 nm) of the SAGE II data when available, and uses a data-filling procedure in the opacity-induced "gap" regions. Using SAGE_4λ, we derived aerosol size distributions that properly reproduce extinction coefficients also at much longer wavelengths. This provides a good basis for calculating the absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation and the resulting stratospheric heating. However, we also show that the use of this data set in a global chemistry–climate model (CCM) still leads to stronger aerosol-induced stratospheric heating than observed, with temperatures partly even higher than the already too high values found by many models in recent general circulation model (GCM) and CCM intercomparisons. This suggests that the overestimation of the stratospheric warming after the Pinatubo eruption may not be ascribed to an insufficient observational database but instead to using outdated data sets, to deficiencies in the implementation of the forcing data, or to radiative or dynamical model artifacts. Conversely, the SAGE_4λ approach reduces the infrared absorption in the tropical tropopause region, resulting in a significantly better agreement with the post-volcanic temperature record at these altitudes.

Normative MR Cervical Spinal Canal Dimensions

Purpose To provide normal values of the cervical spinal canal and spinal cord dimensions in several planes with respect to spinal level, age, sex, and body height. Materials and Methods This study was approved by the institutional review board; all individuals provided signed informed consent. In a prospective multicenter study, two blinded raters independently examined cervical spine magnetic resonance (MR) images of 140 healthy volunteers who were white. The midsagittal diameters and areas of spinal canal and spinal cord, respectively, were measured at the midvertebral levels of C1, C3, and C6. A multivariate general linear model described the influence of sex, body height, age, and spinal level on the measured values. Results There were differences for sex, spinal level, interaction between sex and level, and body height, while age had significant yet limited influence. Normative ranges for the sagittal diameters and areas of spinal canal and spinal cord were defined at C1, C3, and C6 levels for men and women. In addition to a calculation of normative ranges for a specific sex, spinal level, age, and body height data, data for three different height subgroups at 45 years of age were extracted. These results show a range of the spinal canal dimensions at C1 (from 10.7 to 19.7 mm), C3 (from 9.4 to 17.2 mm), and C6 (from 9.2 to 16.8 mm) levels. Conclusion : The dimensions of the cervical spinal canal and cord in healthy individuals are associated with spinal level, sex, age, and height. © RSNA, 2013 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3 km or 10 km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10 km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.

Tracks of immigrant political incorporation

Models of Immigrant Political Incorporation brings together a multidisciplinary group of scholars to consider pathways by which immigrants may be incorporated into the political processes of western democracies. It builds on a rich tradition of studying immigrant incorporation, but each chapter innovates by moving beyond singular accounts of particular groups and locations toward a general causal model with the scope and breadth to apply across groups, places, and time. Models of Immigrant Political Incorporation addresses three key analytic questions: what, if anything, are the distinctive features of immigrants or immigrant groups? How broadly should one define and study politics? What are the initial premises for analyzing pathways toward incorporation; does one learn more by starting from an assumption of racialization and exclusion or from an assumption of engagement and inclusion? While all models engage with all three key analytic questions, chapters vary in their relative focus on one or another, and in the answers they provide. Most include graphical illustrations of the model, as well as extended examples applying the model to one or more immigrant populations. At a time when research on immigrant political incorporation is rapidly accumulating - and when immigrants are increasingly significant political actors in many democratic polities — this volume makes a timely and valuable intervention by pushing researchers to articulate causal dynamics, provide clear definitions and measurable concepts, and develop testable hypotheses. Furthermore, the wide array of frameworks examining how immigrants become part of a polity or are shunted aside ensure that activists and analysts alike will find useful insights. By including historians, sociologists, and political scientists, by ranging across North America and Western Europe, by addressing successful and failed incorporative efforts, this handbook offers guides for anyone seeking to develop a dynamic, unified, and supple model of immigrant political incorporation.

Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. As well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records.

On the seasonal variations of salinity of the tropical Atlantic mixed layer

The physical processes controlling the mixed layer salinity (MLS) seasonal budget in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are investigated using a regional configuration of an ocean general circulation model. The analysis reveals that the MLS cycle is generally weak in comparison of individual physical processes entering in the budget because of strong compensation. In evaporative regions, around the surface salinity maxima, the ocean acts to freshen the mixed layer against the action of evaporation. Poleward of the southern SSS maxima, the freshening is ensured by geostrophic advection, the vertical salinity diffusion and, during winter, a dominant contribution of the convective entrainment. On the equatorward flanks of the SSS maxima, Ekman transport mainly contributes to supply freshwater from ITCZ regions while vertical salinity diffusion adds on the effect of evaporation. All these terms are phase locked through the effect of the wind. Under the seasonal march of the ITCZ and in coastal areas affected by river (7°S:15°N), the upper ocean freshening by precipitations and/or runoff is attenuated by vertical salinity diffusion. In the eastern equatorial regions, seasonal cycle of wind forced surface currents advect freshwaters, which are mixed with subsurface saline water because of the strong vertical turbulent diffusion. In all these regions, the vertical diffusion presents an important contribution to the MLS budget by providing, in general, an upwelling flux of salinity. It is generally due to vertical salinity gradient and mixing due to winds. Furthermore, in the equator where the vertical shear, associated to surface horizontal currents, is developed, the diffusion depends also on the sheared flow stability.