Reconciling Precipitation with Runoff: Observed Hydrological Change in the Midlatitudes

Century-long observed gridded land precipitation datasets are a cornerstone of hydrometeorological research. But recent work has suggested that observed Northern Hemisphere midlatitude (NHML) land mean precipitation does not show evidence of an expected negative response to mid-twentieth-century aerosol forcing. Utilizing observed river discharges, the observed runoff is calculated and compared with observed land precipitation. The results show a near-zero twentieth-century trendinobserved NHML landmean runoff,in contrast to the significant positive trend in observed NHML land mean precipitation. However, precipitation and runoff share common interannual and decadal variability. An obvious split, or breakpoint, is found in the NHML land mean runoff–precipitation relationship in the 1930s. Using runoff simulated by six land surface models (LSMs), which are driven by the observed precipitation dataset, such breakpoints are absent. These findings support previous hypotheses that inhomogeneities exist in the early-twentieth-century NHML land mean precipitation record. Adjusting the observed precipitation record according to the observed runoff record largely accounts for the departure of the observed precipitation response from that predicted given the real-world aerosol forcing estimate, more than halving the discrepancy from about 6 to around 2 W m 22. Consideration of complementary observed runoff adds support to the suggestion that NHML-wide early-twentieth-century precipitation observations are unsuitable for climate change studies. The agreement between precipitation and runoff over Europe, however, is excellent, supporting the use of whole-twentieth-century observed precipitation datasets here.

Calibration of River Gauge at Afdeyu Research Station, Eritrea: A study conducted by MOA NARI and SLM

Afdeyu Station is one of the few river gauging stations in the highlands of Eritrea where daily measurements are taken. As a result of damages, the station was refurbished, and the cross section of the gauge was changed to have better control of minimal runoff. The gauge therefore had to be re-calibrated. This publication documents this process and also provides the new calibration curve, based on extensive field work carried out in the rainy season 2009

Applying erosion damage mapping to asses and quantify off-site effects of soil erosion in Switzerland

In order to fill existing knowledge gaps in the temporal and spatial distribution of soil erosion, its sources and causes, as well as in relation to its off-site impacts, erosion damage mapping of all visible erosion features was carried out at three study sites in Switzerland. The data illustrate that about one-quarter of the cultivated land was affected by water erosion. Observed mean annual soil loss rates are considered rather low (0.7–2.3 t/ha/y) compared to other European countries. However, substantial losses of >70 t/ha were recorded on individual plots. This paper focuses on the spatial aspects of soil erosion, by observing and comparing the study areas in a 1-year period from October 2005 to October 2006. The analyses illustrate that the sites differ considerably in average soil loss rates, but show similar patterns of off-site effects. In about one-third of the damaged plots an external source of surface runoff upslope contributed to the damage (run-on). Similarly, more than 50 per cent of the soil eroded on arable land deposited downslope on adjacent plots, roads, public/private infrastructure, etc., and 20 per cent of it reached open water bodies. Large amounts of eroded soil which deposit off-site, often related to slope depressions, are considered muddy floods and were frequently observed in Switzerland. Mapping, in conclusion, helps to sheds light on some of the important challenges of today, in particular: to comprehensively assess socioeconomic and ecological off-site effects of soil erosion, to attribute off-site impacts to on-site causes, and to raise awareness of all stakeholders involved, in order to improve ongoing discussions on policy formulation and implementation at the national and international levels.

Comparison of contrast-enhanced multi-station MR angiography and digital subtraction angiography of the lower extremity arterial disease

PURPOSE: To compare diagnostic accuracy of multi-station, high-spatial resolution contrast-enhanced MR angiography (CE-MRA) of the lower extremities with digital subtraction angiography (DSA) as the reference standard in patients with symptomatic peripheral arterial occlusive disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Of 485 consecutive patients undergoing a run-off CE-MRA, 152 patients (86 male, 66 female; mean age, 71.6 years) with suspected peripheral arterial occlusive disease were included into our Institutional Review Board approved study. All patients underwent MRA and DSA of the lower extremities within 30 days. MRA was performed at 1.5 Tesla with a single bolus of 0.1 mmol/kg body weight of gadobutrol administered at a rate of 2.0 mL/s at three stations. Two readers evaluated the MRA images independently for stenosis grade and image quality. Sensitivity and specificity were derived. RESULTS: Sensitivity and specificity ranged from 73% to 93% and 64% to 89% and were highest in the thigh area. Both readers showed comparable results. Evaluation of good and better quality MRAs resulted in a considerable improvement in diagnostic accuracy. CONCLUSION: Contrast-enhanced MRA demonstrates good sensitivity and specificity in the investigation of the vasculature of the lower extremities. While a minor investigator experience dependence remains, it is standardizable and shows good inter-observer agreement. Our results confirm that the administration of Gadobutrol at a standard dose of 0.1 mmol/kg for contrast-enhanced runoff MRA is able to detect hemodynamically relevant stenoses. Use of contrast-enhanced MRA as an alternative to intra-arterial DSA in the evaluation and therapeutic planning of patients with suspected peripheral arterial occlusive disease is well justified. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2013;37:1427-1435. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Multimodality Preoperative Planning and Postoperative Follow-up of a Hybrid Cardiac Intervention

We describe the case of a 59-year-old man who had aortic regurgitation and a hypoplastic aortic valve and for whom an echocardiography evaluation revealed a vascular tumor in the roof of the left atrium, which was suspected to be a hemangioma. After undergoing preoperative invasive catheter coronary angiography, echocardiography, and multislice computed tomography examinations, the patient underwent an aortic miniroot replacement. Intraoperative findings confirmed the findings of the preoperative evaluations. The tumor, although macroscopically verified as a hemangioma, was not resected because of the tumor's position and size, and the threat of uncontrollable bleeding. After an uneventful postoperative clinical course, a subsequent successful transcatheter coil occlusion of the coronary fistula from the left circumflex coronary artery was performed as an alternative to surgical resection of the tumor. This case emphasizes the future role of a multimodality hybrid approach for diagnosis, planning (different 2- and 3-dimensional imaging modalities), and treatment in the form of combining interventional (transcatheter) and surgical (open heart) techniques, which could optimize different treatment strategies. This approach could be further improved by increasing the installations of hybrid operating rooms.

The Cardica C-Port System: clinical and angiographic evaluation of a new device for automated, compliant distal anastomoses in coronary artery bypass grafting surgery--a multicenter prospective clinical trial

OBJECTIVES: The C-Port System (Cardica, Inc, Redwood City, Calif) integrates in one tool all functions necessary to enable rapid automated distal coronary anastomoses. The goal of this prospective, nonrandomized, and multicenter study is to determine the safety and efficacy of this novel anastomotic system. METHODS: Five centers enrolled 133 patients awaiting elective coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Outcome variables were intraoperative device performance, incidence of device-related adverse events, predischarge and 6-month angiographic graft patency, and 12-month clinical outcome. Independent core laboratories performed qualitative and quantitative angiographic and computed tomographic assessments. RESULTS: The C-Port was used to perform a vein-to-coronary anastomosis in 130 patients. Intraoperative conversion to a hand-sewn anastomosis was necessary in 11 patients because of inadequate target site preparation, inappropriate target vessel selection, or both. Inadequate blood flow related to poor runoff required conversion in 3 additional patients. Three patients died before discharge of causes unrelated to the device. At discharge, 113 patients had a C-Port implant in place, and 104 C-Port anastomoses were studied by means of angiography, resulting in 100 FitzGibbon A, 3 FitzGibbon B, and 1 FitzGibbon 0 classifications. At 6 months, one additional patient died of a device-unrelated cause, and 98 patients were evaluated by means of angiography (n = 89). Overall patency (FitzGibbon A) was 92.1%. Three C-Port anastomoses were rated FitzGibbon B, and 4 were rated FitzGibbon 0. At 12 months, 107 (98.2%) of 109 alive patients were followed up, without any reports of device-related major adverse cardiac events. CONCLUSIONS: The C-Port System allows for a rapid, reliable, and compliant distal anastomosis and yields favorable 6-month angiographic and 12-month clinical results when compared with published studies.

Rare retinal haemorrhages in translational accidental head trauma in children

PURPOSE: The characteristic findings in accidental head injury consist of linear skull fracture, epidural haematoma, localized subdural haematoma, or cortical contusion because of a linear or translational impact force. Retinal haemorrhages have been found, although uncommon, in accidental head trauma. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 24 consecutive cases of children with severe head injuries caused by falls. Inclusion criteria were skull fractures and/or intracranial haemorrhages documented by computerized tomography. All patients underwent a careful ophthalmic examination including dilated indirect fundoscopy within the first 48 h following admission. RESULTS: No retinal haemorrhages could be found in patients whose accidents were plausible and physical and imaging findings were compatible with reported histories. Excessive bilateral retinal haemorrhages were found in only three children with the typical signs of shaken baby syndrome. In eight children, trauma had led to orbital roof fractures. CONCLUSIONS: Retinal haemorrhages were not found in any of the patients with accidental trauma despite the severity of their head injuries. Hence, we add more evidence that there are strong differences between the ocular involvement in accidental translational trauma and those in victims of non-accidental trauma. Fall-related injuries carry a very low risk of retinal haemorrhages.

Tracing glacier wastage in the Northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan/Central Asia) over the last 40 years

The status and dynamics of glaciers are crucial for agriculture in semiarid parts of Central Asia, since river flow is characterized by major runoff in spring and summer, supplied by glacier- and snowmelt. Ideally, this coincides with the critical period of water demand for irrigation. The present study shows a clear trend in glacier retreat between 1963 and 2000 in the Sokoluk watershed, a catchment of the Northern Tien Shan mountain range in Kyrgyzstan. The overall area loss of 28% observed for the period 1963–2000, and a clear acceleration of wastage since the 1980s, correlate with the results of previous studies in other regions of the Tien Shan as well as the Alps. In particular, glaciers smaller than 0.5 km2 have exhibited this phenomenon most starkly. While they registered a medium decrease of only 9.1% for 1963–1986, they lost 41.5% of their surface area between 1986 and 2000. Furthermore, a general increase in the minimum glacier elevation of 78 m has been observed over the last three decades. This corresponds to about one-third of the entire retreat of the minimum glacier elevation in the Northern Tien Shan since the Little Ice Age maximum.

Holocene climatic change and the development of the lake-effect snowbelt in Michigan, USA

Lake-effect snow is an important constraint on ecological and socio-economic systems near the North American Great Lakes. Little is known about the Holocene history of lake-effect snowbelts, and it is difficult to decipher how lake-effect snowfall abundance affected ecosystem development. We conducted oxygen-isotope analysis of calcite in lake-sediment cores from northern Lower Michigan to infer Holocene climatic variation and assess snowbelt development. The two lakes experience the same synoptic-scale climatic systems, but only one of them (Huffman Lake) receives a significant amount of lake-effect snow. A 177-cm difference in annual snowfall causes groundwater inflow at Huffman Lake to be 18O-depleted by 2.3‰ relative to O'Brien Lake. To assess when the lake-effect snowbelt became established, we compared calcite-δ18O profiles of the last 11,500 years from these two sites. The chronologies are based on accelerator-mass-spectrometry 14C ages of 11 and 17 terrestrial-plant samples from Huffman and O'Brien lakes, respectively. The values of δ18O are low at both sites from 11,500 to 9500 cal yr BP when the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) exerted a dominant control over the regional climate and provided periodic pulses of meltwater to the Great Lakes basin. Carbonate δ18O increases by 2.6‰ at O'Brien Lake and by 1.4‰ at Huffman Lake between 9500 and 7000 cal yr BP, suggesting a regional decline in the proportion of runoff derived from winter precipitation. The Great Lakes snowbelt probably developed between 9500 and 5500 cal yr BP as inferred from the progressive 18O-depletion at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake, with the largest increase of lake-effect snow around 7000 cal yr BP. Lake-effect snow became possible at this time because of increasing contact between the Great Lakes and frigid arctic air. These changes resulted from enhanced westerly flow over the Great Lakes as the LIS collapsed, and from rapidly rising Great Lakes levels during the Nipissing Transgression. The δ18O difference between Huffman and O'Brien lakes declines after 5500 cal yr BP, probably because of a northward shift of the polar vortex that brought increasing winter precipitation to the entire region. However, δ18O remains depleted at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake because of the continued production of lake-effect snow.

Supporting, Regulating, and Provisioning Hydrological Services

The natural regulation of the water cycle by tropical montane forests is an important ecosystem service. Within this chapter we focus on water balance and regulation of the water cycle. Differences of rainfall-runoff generation across scales change from a near-surface event water driven system in pristine rainforest-covered micro-catchments to a more groundwater pre-event water dominated one on the mesoscale. The highly dynamic discharges are often correlated with total suspended sediment loads. However, we also observed total suspended sediment peaks at times of low flow, indicating a decoupling of erosion and stream transport and a triggering of landslides not directly related to hydrological processes. We also summarize likely future trends of water-related ecosystem services and expect an increase in human use and benefits of fresh water use whereas changes in water regulation and water purification services remain unchanged on a high level.

The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.