Predicting future risk of asthma exacerbations using individual conditional probabilities

Determination of future risk of exacerbations is a key issue in the management of asthma. We previously developed a method to calculate conditional probabilities (π) of future decreases in lung function by using the daily fluctuations in peak expiratory flow (PEF).

Unhealthy alcohol use, HIV infection and risk of liver fibrosis in drug users with hepatitis C

Aim To analyze alcohol use, clinical data and laboratory parameters that may affect FIB-4, an index for measuring liver fibrosis, in HCV-monoinfected and HCV/HIV-coinfected drug users. Patients and Methods Patients admitted for substance abuse treatment between 1994 and 2006 were studied. Socio-demographic data, alcohol and drug use characteristics and clinical variables were obtained through hospital records. Blood samples for biochemistry, liver function tests, CD4 cell count, and serology of HIV and HCV infection were collected at admission. Multivariate linear regression was used to analyze the predictors of FIB-4 increase. Results A total of 472 (83% M, 17% F) patients were eligible. The median age at admission was 31 years (Interquartile range (IQR) 27–35 years), and the median duration of drug use was 10 years (IQR 5.5–15 years). Unhealthy drinking (>50 grams/day) was reported in 32% of the patients. The FIB-4 scores were significantly greater in the HCV/HIV-coinfected patients (1.14, IQR 0.76–1.87) than in the HCV-monoinfected patients (0.75, IQR 0.56–1.11) (p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, unhealthy drinking (p = 0.034), lower total cholesterol (p = 0.042), serum albumin (p<0.001), higher GGT (p<0.001) and a longer duration of addiction (p = 0.005) were independently associated with higher FIB-4 scores in the HCV-monoinfected drug users. The effect of unhealthy drinking on FIB-4 scores disappeared in the HCV/HIV-coinfected patients, whereas lower serum albumin (p<0.001), a lower CD4 cell count (p = 0.006), higher total bilirubin (p<0.001) and a longer drug addiction duration (p<0.001) were significantly associated with higher FIB-4 values. Conclusions Unhealthy alcohol use in the HCV-monoinfected patients and HIV-related immunodeficiency in the HCV/HIV-coinfected patients are important risk factors associated with liver fibrosis in the respective populations.

Commensal and probiotic bacteria influence intestinal barrier function and susceptibility to colitis in Nod1-/-; Nod2-/- mice

The intestinal microbiota regulates key host functions. It is unknown whether modulation of the microbiota can affect a genetically determined host phenotype. Polymorphisms in the Nucleotide oligomerization domain (Nod)-like receptor family confer genetic risk for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We investigated whether the intestinal microbiota and the probiotic strain Bifidobacterium breve NCC2950 affect intestinal barrier function and responses to intestinal injury in Nod1(-/-); Nod2(-/-) mice.

Coronary collateral function long after drug-eluting stent implantation

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to compare coronary collateral function in patients after bare-metal stent (BMS) or drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation. BACKGROUND: Drug-eluting stents have an inhibitory effect on the production of cytokines, chemotactic proteins, and growth factors, and may therefore negatively affect coronary collateral growth. METHODS: A total of 120 patients with long-term stable coronary artery disease (CAD) after stent implantation were included. Both the BMS group and the DES group comprised 60 patients matched for in-stent stenosis severity of the vessel undergoing collateral flow index (CFI) measurement at follow-up and for the duration of follow-up. The primary end point of the investigation was invasively determined coronary collateral function 6 months after stent implantation. Collateral function was assessed by simultaneous aortic, coronary wedge, and central venous pressure measurements (yielding CFI) and by intracoronary electrocardiogram during balloon occlusion. RESULTS: There were no differences between the groups regarding age, gender, body mass index, frequency of cardiovascular risk factors, use of cardiovascular drugs, severity of CAD, or site of coronary artery stenoses. Despite equal in-stent stenosis severity (46 +/- 34% and 45 +/- 36%) and equal follow-up duration (6.2 +/- 10 months and 6.5 +/- 5.4 months), CFI was diminished in the DES versus BMS group (0.154 +/- 0.097 vs. 0.224 +/- 0.142; p = 0.0049), and the rate of collaterals insufficient to prevent ischemia during occlusion (intracoronary electrocardiographic ST-segment elevation > or =0.1 mV) was higher with 50 of 60 patients in the DES group and 33 of 60 patients in the BMS group (p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Collateral function long after coronary stenting is impaired with DES (sirolimus and paclitaxel) when compared with BMS. Considering the protective nature of collateral vessels, this could lead to more serious cardiac events in the presence of an abrupt coronary occlusion.

Severity of mucosal inflammation as a predictor for alterations of visceral sensory function in a rat model

Transient inflammation is known to alter visceral sensory function and frequently precede the onset of symptoms in a subgroup of patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Duration and severity of the initial inflammatory stimulus appear to be risk factors for the manifestation of symptoms. Therefore, we aimed to characterize dose-dependent effects of trinitrobenzenesulfonic acid (TNBS)/ethanol on: (1) colonic mucosa, (2) cytokine release and (3) visceral sensory function in a rat model. Acute inflammation was induced in male Lewis rats by single administration of various doses of TNBS/ethanol (total of 0.8, 0.4 or 0.2 ml) in test animals or saline in controls. Assessment of visceromotor response (VMR) to colorectal distensions, histological evaluation of severity of inflammation, and measurement of pro-inflammatory cytokine levels (IL-2, IL-6) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were performed 2h and 3, 14, 28, 31 and 42 days after induction. Increased serum IL-2 and IL-6 levels were evident prior to mucosal lesions 2h after induction of colitis and persist up to 14 days (p<0.05 vs. saline), although no histological signs of inflammation were detected at 14 days. In the acute phase, VMR was only significantly increased after 0.8 ml and 0.4 ml TNBS/ethanol (p<0.05 vs. saline). After 28 days, distension-evoked responses were persistently elevated (p<0.05 vs. saline) in 0.8 and 0.4 ml TNBS/ethanol-treated rats. In 0.2 ml TNBS/ethanol group, VMR was only enhanced after repeated visceral stimulation. Visceral hyperalgesia occurs after a transient colitis. However, even a mild acute but asymptomatic colitis can induce long-lasting visceral hyperalgesia in the presence of additional stimuli.

Lung-function tests in neonates and infants with chronic lung disease: tidal breathing and respiratory control

This paper is the fourth in a series of reviews that will summarize available data and critically discuss the potential role of lung-function testing in infants with acute neonatal respiratory disorders and chronic lung disease of infancy. The current paper addresses information derived from tidal breathing measurements within the framework outlined in the introductory paper of this series, with particular reference to how these measurements inform on control of breathing. Infants with acute and chronic respiratory illness demonstrate differences in tidal breathing and its control that are of clinical consequence and can be measured objectively. The increased incidence of significant apnea in preterm infants and infants with chronic lung disease, together with the reportedly increased risk of sudden unexplained death within the latter group, suggests that control of breathing is affected by both maturation and disease. Clinical observations are supported by formal comparison of tidal breathing parameters and control of breathing indices in the research setting.

Relationship between glomerular filtration rate and the adipokines adiponectin, resistin and leptin in coronary patients with predominantly normal or mildly impaired renal function

BACKGROUND: Due to their molecular weight, it is possible that the adipokines adiponectin, resistin and leptin accumulate when glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is decreased. In reduced renal clearance, altered serum concentrations of these proteins might affect cardiovascular risk. The objective of the study was to investigate the relationship between adipokine concentrations and GFR. METHODS: The association between GFR, as determined by the abbreviated MDRD equation, and the concentrations of the adipokines adiponectin, resistin and leptin was assessed in a cohort of coronary patients (n=538; 363 male, 165 female). After calculation of correlations between GFR and adipokine concentrations, the association was further assessed by analysis of covariance following adjustment for age, gender, BMI, presence of type 2 diabetes, presence of hypertension, history of smoking as well as for serum lipid concentrations. RESULTS: Mean GFR in our study population was 68.74+/-15.27 ml/min/1.73 m(2). 74.3% of the patients had a GFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m(2), 24% of the patients had a GFR between 30 and 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2), and 1.7% of the patients had a GFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m(2). There were significant inverse correlations between adiponectin (r=-0.372; p<0.001), resistin (r=-0.227; p<0.001) and leptin (r=-0.151; p=0.009) concentrations and GFR. After multivariate adjustment, the associations remained significant for adiponectin and resistin. Subgroup analysis in patients with GFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) showed a significant correlation between GFR and adiponectin as well as leptin concentrations. However, after adjustment, these associations no longer were significant. CONCLUSIONS: There is an independent association between GFR and the serum concentrations of adiponectin and resistin. However, this association is not present at GFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). This finding suggests that adipokine concentrations in mildly impaired and normal renal function are influenced by factors other than GFR.

Health risk appraisal in older people 1: are older people living alone an "at-risk" group?

BACKGROUND: In the UK, population screening for unmet need has failed to improve the health of older people. Attention is turning to interventions targeted at 'at-risk' groups. Living alone in later life is seen as a potential health risk, and older people living alone are thought to be an at-risk group worthy of further intervention. AIM: To explore the clinical significance of living alone and the epidemiology of lone status as an at-risk category, by investigating associations between lone status and health behaviours, health status, and service use, in non-disabled older people. Design of study: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in older people. SETTING: Four group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Sixty per cent of 2641 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over registered at a practice agreed to participate in the study; 84% of these returned completed questionnaires. A third of this group, (n = 860, 33.1%) lived alone and two-thirds (n = 1741, 66.9%) lived with someone else. RESULTS: Those living alone were more likely to report fair or poor health, poor vision, difficulties in instrumental and basic activities of daily living, worse memory and mood, lower physical activity, poorer diet, worsening function, risk of social isolation, hazardous alcohol use, having no emergency carer, and multiple falls in the previous 12 months. After adjustment for age, sex, income, and educational attainment, living alone remained associated with multiple falls, functional impairment, poor diet, smoking status, risk of social isolation, and three self-reported chronic conditions: arthritis and/or rheumatism, glaucoma, and cataracts. CONCLUSION: Clinicians working with independently-living older people living alone should anticipate higher levels of disease and disability in these patients, and higher health and social risks, much of which will be due to older age, lower educational status, and female sex. Living alone itself appears to be associated with higher risks of falling, and constellations of pathologies, including visual loss and joint disorders. Targeted population screening using lone status may be useful in identifying older individuals at high risk of falling.

Impaired vascular function in normoglycemic mice prone to autoimmune diabetes: role of nitric oxide

Type 1 diabetes is an immuno-inflammatory condition which increases the risk of cardiovascular disease, particularly in young adults. This study investigated whether vascular function is altered in mice prone to autoimmune diabetes and whether the nitric oxide (NO)-cyclic GMP axis is involved. Aortic rings suspended in organ chambers and precontracted with phenylephrine were exposed to cumulative concentrations of acetylcholine. To investigate the role of NO, some experiments were performed in the presence of either 1400W (N-(3-aminomethyl)benzyl-acetamidine hydrochloride), a selective inhibitor of the iNOS-isoform, L-NAME (N(G)-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester hydrochloride), an inhibitor of all three NOS-isoforms, or ODQ (1H-[1,2,4]oxadiazolo[4,3-a]quinoxalin-1-one), a selective inhibitor of guanylate cyclase. Moreover, contractility to phenylephrine, big endothelin-1, and endothelin-1 was assessed and histological analysis and iNOS immunohistochemistry were performed. Endothelium-dependent relaxation was reduced in prediabetic NOD mice (78+/-4 vs. 88+/-2%, respectively, P<0.05 vs. control) despite normal plasma glucose levels (n.s. vs. control). Preincubation with 1400W further attenuated responses in prediabetic (P<0.05 vs. untreated) but not in diabetic or in control mice. In contrast, basal NO bioactivity remained unaffected until the onset of diabetes in NOD mice. Contractile responses to big endothelin-1 and endothelin-1 were reduced in prediabetic animals (P<0.05 vs. control), whereas in diabetic mice only responses to big endothelin-1 were decreased (P<0.05 vs. control). These data demonstrate that endothelium-dependent and -independent vascular function in NOD mice is abnormal already in prediabetes in the absence of structural injury. Early proinflammatory activation due to iNOS in diabetes-prone NOD mice appears to be one of the mechanisms contributing to impaired vasoreactivity.

Acute myocardial infarction in early pregnancy: definition of myocardium at risk with noncontrast T2-weighted cardiac magnetic resonance

We report a case of a 34-year-old woman who had a left anterior wall myocardial infarction develop in the first trimester of pregnancy. Despite urgent and successful revascularization, she demonstrated persistent segmental wall motion abnormalities by transthoracic echocardiography. To manage this patient safely through pregnancy with a better definition of myocardium at risk, a cardiac magnetic resonance examination was performed. This identified a large territory of acutely edematous myocardium in addition to providing accurate volumetric measurements of left ventricular size and function. Because of her gravid state, gadolinium was not administered nor was it required to delineate the region of myocardium at risk.

Cardiovascular risk factors impair native collateral development and may impair efficacy of therapeutic interventions

Animal and early clinical studies of gene therapy for tissue ischaemia suggested that this approach might provide benefit to patients with coronary artery disease not amenable to traditional revascularization. This enthusiasm was then tempered by the subsequent disappointing results of randomized clinical trials and led researchers to develop strategies using progenitor cells as an alternative to improve collateral function. However, the recent publication of several randomized clinical trials reporting either negative or weakly positive results using this approach have led to questions regarding its effectiveness. There are several factors that need to be considered in explaining the discordance between the positive studies of such treatments in animals and the disappointing results seen in randomized patient trials. Aside from the practical issues of arteriogenic therapies, such as effective delivery, vascular remodelling is an extraordinarily complex process, and the administration of a single agent or cell in the hope that it would lead to lasting physiological effects may be far too simplistic an approach. In addition, however, evidence now suggests that many of the traditional cardiovascular risk factors-such as age and hypercholesterolemia-may impair the host response not only to ischaemia but, critically, also to treatment as well. This review discusses the evidence and mechanisms for these observations and highlights future directions that might be taken in an effort to provide more effective therapies.

Complexity of chronic asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: implications for risk assessment, and disease progression and control

Although assessment of asthma control is important to guide treatment, it is difficult since the temporal pattern and risk of exacerbations are often unpredictable. In this Review, we summarise the classic methods to assess control with unidimensional and multidimensional approaches. Next, we show how ideas from the science of complexity can explain the seemingly unpredictable nature of bronchial asthma and emphysema, with implications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We show that fluctuation analysis, a method used in statistical physics, can be used to gain insight into asthma as a dynamic disease of the respiratory system, viewed as a set of interacting subsystems (eg, inflammatory, immunological, and mechanical). The basis of the fluctuation analysis methods is the quantification of the long-term temporal history of lung function parameters. We summarise how this analysis can be used to assess the risk of future asthma episodes, with implications for asthma severity and control both in children and adults.

Preclinical disability as a risk factor for falls in community-dwelling older adults

BACKGROUND: Falls are common and serious problems in older adults. The goal of this study was to examine whether preclinical disability predicts incident falls in a European population of community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Secondary data analysis was performed on a population-based longitudinal study of 1644 community-dwelling older adults living in London, U.K.; Hamburg, Germany; Solothurn, Switzerland. Data were collected at baseline and 1-year follow-up using a self-administered multidimensional health risk appraisal questionnaire, including validated questions on falls, mobility disability status (high function, preclinical disability, task difficulty), and demographic and health-related characteristics. Associations were evaluated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall incidence of falls was 24%, and increased by worsening mobility disability status: high function (17%), preclinical disability (32%), task difficulty (40%), test-of-trend p <.003. In multivariate analysis adjusting for other fall risk factors, preclinical disability (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.5), task difficulty (OR = 1.7, 95% CI, 1.1-2.6) and history of falls (OR = 4.7, 95% CI, 3.5-6.3) were the strongest significant predictors of falls. In stratified multivariate analyses, preclinical disability equally predicted falls in participants with (OR = 1.7, 95% CI, 1.0-3.0) and without history of falls (OR = 1.8, 95% CI, 1.1-3.0). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides longitudinal evidence that self-reported preclinical disability predicts incident falls at 1-year follow-up independent of other self-reported fall risk factors. Multidimensional geriatric assessment that includes preclinical disability may provide a unique early warning system as well as potential targets for intervention.

Vertebroplasty: experimental characterization of polymethylmethacrylate bone cement spreading as a function of viscosity, bone porosity, and flow rate

STUDY DESIGN: This is an experimental study on an artificial vertebra model and human cadaveric spine. OBJECTIVE: Characterization of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) bone cement distribution in the vertebral body as a function of cement viscosity, bone porosity, and injection speed. Identification of relevant parameters for improved cement flow predictability and leak prevention in vertebroplasty. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Vertebroplasty is an efficient procedure to treat vertebral fractures and stabilize osteoporotic bone in the spine. Severe complications result from bone cement leakage into the spinal canal or the vascular system. Cement viscosity has been identified as an important parameter for leak prevention but the influence of bone structure and injection speed remain obscure. METHODS: An artificial vertebra model based on open porous aluminum foam was used to simulate bone of known porosity. Fifty-six vertebroplasties with 4 different starting viscosity levels and 2 different injection speeds were performed on artificial vertebrae of 3 different porosities. A validation on a human cadaveric spine was executed. The experiments were radiographically monitored and the shape of the cement clouds quantitatively described with the 2 indicators circularity and mean cement spreading distance. RESULTS: An increase in circularity and a decrease in mean cement spreading distance was observed with increasing viscosity, with the most striking change occurring between 50 and 100 Pas. Larger pores resulted in significantly reduced circularity and increased mean cement spreading distance whereas the effect of injection speed on the 2 indicators was not significant. CONCLUSION: Viscosity is the key factor for reducing the risk of PMMA cement leakage and it should be adapted to the degree of osteoporosis encountered in each patient. It may be advisable to opt for a higher starting viscosity but to inject the material at a faster rate.

Autonomic function and prothrombotic activity in women after an acute coronary event

BACKGROUND: The link between decreased heart rate variability (HRV) and atherosclerosis progression is elusive. We hypothesized that reduced HRV relates to increased levels of prothrombotic factors previously shown to predict coronary risk. METHODS: We studied 257 women (aged 56 +/- 7 years) between 3 and 6 months after an acute coronary event and obtained very low frequency (VLF), low frequency (LF), and high frequency (HF) power, and LF/HF ratio from 24-hour ambulatory ECG recordings. Plasma levels of activated clotting factor VII (FVIIa), fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor antigen (VWF:Ag), and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) activity were determined, and their levels were aggregated into a standardized composite index of prothrombotic activity. RESULTS: In bivariate analyses, all HRV indices were inversely correlated with the prothrombotic index explaining between 6% and 14% of the variance (p < 0.001). After controlling for sociodemographic factors, index event, menopausal status, cardiac medication, lifestyle factors, self-rated health, metabolic variables, and heart rate, VLF power, LF power, and HF power explained 2%, 5%, and 3%, respectively, of the variance in the prothrombotic index (p < 0.012). There were also independent relationships between VLF power and PAI-1 activity, between LF power and fibrinogen, VWF:Ag, and PAI-1 activity, between HF power and FVIIa and fibrinogen, and between the LF/HF power ratio and PAI-1 activity, explaining between 2% and 3% of the respective variances (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Decreased HRV was associated with prothrombotic changes partially independent of covariates. Alteration in autonomic function might contribute to prothrombotic activity in women with coronary artery disease (CAD).