Health risk appraisal in older people 2: the implications for clinicians and commissioners of social isolation risk in older people

BACKGROUND: Social isolation is associated with poorer health, and is seen by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as one of the major issues facing the industrialised world. AIM: To explore the significance of social isolation in the older population for GPs and for service commissioners. DESIGN OF STUDY: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal. SETTING: A total of 2641 community-dwelling, non-disabled people aged 65 years and over in suburban London. METHOD: Demographic details, social network and risk for social isolation based on the 6-item Lubben Social Network Scale, measures of depressed mood, memory problems, numbers of chronic conditions, medication use, functional ability, self-reported use of medical services. RESULTS: More than 15% of the older age group were at risk of social isolation, and this risk increased with advancing age. In bivariate analyses risk of social isolation was associated with older age, education up to 16 years only, depressed mood and impaired memory, perceived fair or poor health, perceived difficulty with both basic and instrumental activities of daily living, diminishing functional ability, and fear of falling. Despite poorer health status, those at risk of social isolation did not appear to make greater use of medical services, nor were they at greater risk of hospital admission. Half of those who scored as at risk of social isolation lived with others. Multivariate analysis showed significant independent associations between risk of social isolation and depressed mood and living alone, and weak associations with male sex, impaired memory and perceived poor health. CONCLUSION: The risk of social isolation is elevated in older men, older persons who live alone, persons with mood or cognitive problems, but is not associated with greater use of services. These findings would not support population screening for individuals at risk of social isolation with a view to averting service use by timely intervention. Awareness of social isolation should trigger further assessment, and consideration of interventions to alleviate social isolation, treat depression or ameliorate cognitive impairment.

Health risk appraisal in older people 1: are older people living alone an "at-risk" group?

BACKGROUND: In the UK, population screening for unmet need has failed to improve the health of older people. Attention is turning to interventions targeted at 'at-risk' groups. Living alone in later life is seen as a potential health risk, and older people living alone are thought to be an at-risk group worthy of further intervention. AIM: To explore the clinical significance of living alone and the epidemiology of lone status as an at-risk category, by investigating associations between lone status and health behaviours, health status, and service use, in non-disabled older people. Design of study: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in older people. SETTING: Four group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Sixty per cent of 2641 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over registered at a practice agreed to participate in the study; 84% of these returned completed questionnaires. A third of this group, (n = 860, 33.1%) lived alone and two-thirds (n = 1741, 66.9%) lived with someone else. RESULTS: Those living alone were more likely to report fair or poor health, poor vision, difficulties in instrumental and basic activities of daily living, worse memory and mood, lower physical activity, poorer diet, worsening function, risk of social isolation, hazardous alcohol use, having no emergency carer, and multiple falls in the previous 12 months. After adjustment for age, sex, income, and educational attainment, living alone remained associated with multiple falls, functional impairment, poor diet, smoking status, risk of social isolation, and three self-reported chronic conditions: arthritis and/or rheumatism, glaucoma, and cataracts. CONCLUSION: Clinicians working with independently-living older people living alone should anticipate higher levels of disease and disability in these patients, and higher health and social risks, much of which will be due to older age, lower educational status, and female sex. Living alone itself appears to be associated with higher risks of falling, and constellations of pathologies, including visual loss and joint disorders. Targeted population screening using lone status may be useful in identifying older individuals at high risk of falling.

Promotion of health in older people: a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in British general practice

BACKGROUND: there is inadequate evidence to support currently formulated NHS strategies to achieve health promotion and preventative care in older people through broad-based screening and assessment in primary care. The most extensively evaluated delivery instrument for this purpose is Health Risk Appraisal (HRA). This article describes a trial using HRA to evaluate the effect on health behaviour and preventative-care uptake in older people in NHS primary care. METHODS: a randomised controlled trial was undertaken in three London primary care group practices. Functionally independent community-dwelling patients older than 65 years (n = 2,503) received a self-administered Health Risk Appraisal for Older Persons (HRA-O) questionnaire leading to computer-generated individualised written feedback to participants and general practitioners (GPs), integrated into practice information-technology (IT) systems. All primary care staff received training in preventative health in older people. The main outcome measures were self-reported health behaviour and preventative care uptake at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: of 2,503 individuals randomised, 2,006 respondents (80.1%) (intervention, n = 940, control n = 1,066) were available for analysis. Intervention group respondents reported slightly higher pneumococcal vaccination uptake and equivocal improvement in physical activity levels compared with controls. No significant differences were observed for any other categories of health behaviour or preventative care measures at 1-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: HRA-O implemented in this way resulted in minimal improvement of health behaviour or uptake of preventative care measures in older people. Supplementary reinforcement involving contact by health professionals with patients over and above routine clinical encounters may be a prerequisite to the effectiveness of IT-based delivery systems for health promotion in older people.

Body contouring surgery following bariatric surgery and dietetically induced massive weight reduction: a risk analysis

BACKGROUND: This study analyzed the impact of weight reduction method, preoperative, and intraoperative variables on the outcome of reconstructive body contouring surgery following massive weight reduction. METHODS: All patients presenting with a maximal BMI >/=35 kg/m(2) before weight reduction who underwent body contouring surgery of the trunk following massive weight loss (excess body mass index loss (EBMIL) >/= 30%) between January 2002 and June 2007 were retrospectively analyzed. Incomplete records or follow-up led to exclusion. Statistical analysis focused on weight reduction method and pre-, intra-, and postoperative risk factors. The outcome was compared to current literature results. RESULTS: A total of 104 patients were included (87 female and 17 male; mean age 47.9 years). Massive weight reduction was achieved through bariatric surgery in 62 patients (59.6%) and dietetically in 42 patients (40.4%). Dietetically achieved excess body mass index loss (EBMIL) was 94.20% and in this cohort higher than surgically induced reduction EBMIL 80.80% (p < 0.01). Bariatric surgery did not present increased risks for complications for the secondary body contouring procedures. The observed complications (26.9%) were analyzed for risk factors. Total tissue resection weight was a significant risk factor (p < 0.05). Preoperative BMI had an impact on infections (p < 0.05). No impact on the postoperative outcome was detected in EBMIL, maximal BMI, smoking, hemoglobin, blood loss, body contouring technique or operation time. Corrective procedures were performed in 11 patients (10.6%). The results were compared to recent data. CONCLUSION: Bariatric surgery does not increase risks for complications in subsequent body contouring procedures when compared to massive dietetic weight reduction.

Are clustering effects accounted for in statistical analysis in leading dental specialty journals?

OBJECTIVES In dental research multiple site observations within patients or taken at various time intervals are commonplace. These clustered observations are not independent; statistical analysis should be amended accordingly. This study aimed to assess whether adjustment for clustering effects during statistical analysis was undertaken in five specialty dental journals. METHODS Thirty recent consecutive issues of Orthodontics (OJ), Periodontology (PJ), Endodontology (EJ), Maxillofacial (MJ) and Paediatric Dentristry (PDJ) journals were hand searched. Articles requiring adjustment accounting for clustering effects were identified and statistical techniques used were scrutinized. RESULTS Of 559 studies considered to have inherent clustering effects, adjustment for this was made in the statistical analysis in 223 (39.1%). Studies published in the Periodontology specialty accounted for clustering effects in the statistical analysis more often than articles published in other journals (OJ vs. PJ: OR=0.21, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.37, p<0.001; MJ vs. PJ: OR=0.02, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.07, p<0.001; PDJ vs. PJ: OR=0.14, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.28, p<0.001; EJ vs. PJ: OR=0.11, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.22, p<0.001). A positive correlation was found between increasing prevalence of clustering effects in individual specialty journals and correct statistical handling of clustering (r=0.89). CONCLUSIONS The majority of studies in 5 dental specialty journals (60.9%) examined failed to account for clustering effects in statistical analysis where indicated, raising the possibility of inappropriate decreases in p-values and the risk of inappropriate inferences.

Genome-wide analysis in German shepherd dogs reveals association of a locus on CFA 27 with atopic dermatitis

Humans and dogs are both affected by the allergic skin disease atopic dermatitis (AD), caused by an interaction between genetic and environmental factors. The German shepherd dog (GSD) is a high-risk breed for canine AD (CAD). In this study, we used a Swedish cohort of GSDs as a model for human AD. Serum IgA levels are known to be lower in GSDs compared to other breeds. We detected significantly lower IgA levels in the CAD cases compared to controls (p = 1.1 × 10(-5)) in our study population. We also detected a separation within the GSD cohort, where dogs could be grouped into two different subpopulations. Disease prevalence differed significantly between the subpopulations contributing to population stratification (λ = 1.3), which was successfully corrected for using a mixed model approach. A genome-wide association analysis of CAD was performed (n cases = 91, n controls = 88). IgA levels were included in the model, due to the high correlation between CAD and low IgA levels. In addition, we detected a correlation between IgA levels and the age at the time of sampling (corr = 0.42, p = 3.0 × 10(-9)), thus age was included in the model. A genome-wide significant association was detected on chromosome 27 (praw = 3.1 × 10(-7), pgenome = 0.03). The total associated region was defined as a ~1.5-Mb-long haplotype including eight genes. Through targeted re-sequencing and additional genotyping of a subset of identified SNPs, we defined 11 smaller haplotype blocks within the associated region. Two blocks showed the strongest association to CAD. The ~209-kb region, defined by the two blocks, harbors only the PKP2 gene, encoding Plakophilin 2 expressed in the desmosomes and important for skin structure. Our results may yield further insight into the genetics behind both canine and human AD.

Health risk appraisal in older people 6: factors associated with self-reported poor vision and uptake of eye tests in older people

BACKGROUND Although free eye testing is available in the UK from a nation-wide network of optometrists, there is evidence of unrecognised, tractable vision loss amongst older people. A recent review identified this unmet need as a priority for further investigation, highlighting the need to understand public perceptions of eye services and barriers to service access and utilisation. This paper aims to identify risk factors for (1) having poor vision and (2) not having had an eyesight check among community-dwelling older people without an established ophthalmological diagnosis. METHODS Secondary analysis of self-reported data from the ProAge trial. 1792 people without a known ophthalmological diagnosis were recruited from three group practices in London. RESULTS Almost two in ten people in this population of older individuals without known ophthalmological diagnoses had self-reported vision loss, and more than a third of them had not had an eye test in the previous twelve months. In this sample, those with limited education, depressed mood, need for help with instrumental and basic activities of daily living (IADLs and BADLs), and subjective memory complaints were at increased risk of fair or poor self-reported vision. Individuals with basic education only were at increased risk for not having had an eye test in the previous 12 months (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.17-1.98 p=0.002), as were those with no, or only one chronic condition (OR 1.850, 95% CI 1.382-2.477, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Self-reported poor vision in older people without ophthalmological diagnoses is associated with other functional losses, with no or only one chronic condition, and with depression. This pattern of disorders may be the basis for case finding in general practice. Low educational attainment is an independent determinant of not having had eye tests, as well as a factor associated with undiagnosed vision loss. There are other factors, not identified in this study, which determine uptake of eye testing in those with self-reported vision loss. Further exploration is needed to identify these factors and lead towards effective case finding.

Cardiac biomarkers and clinical scores for risk stratification in elderly patients with non-high-risk pulmonary embolism.

OBJECTIVE To determine the prognostic accuracy of cardiac biomarkers alone and in combination with clinical scores in elderly patients with non-high-risk pulmonary embolism (PE). DESIGN Ancillary analysis of a Swiss multicentre prospective cohort study. SUBJECTS A total of 230 patients aged ≥65 years with non-high-risk PE. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The study end-point was a composite of PE-related complications, defined as PE-related death, recurrent venous thromboembolism or major bleeding during a follow-up of 30 days. The prognostic accuracy of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), the Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the precursor of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) was determined using sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, logistic regression and reclassification statistics. RESULTS The overall complication rate during follow-up was 8.7%. hs-cTnT achieved the highest prognostic accuracy [area under the ROC curve: 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63-0.86, P < 0.001). At the predefined cut-off values, the negative predictive values of the biomarkers were above 95%. For levels above the cut-off, the risk of complications increased fivefold for hs-cTnT [odds ratio (OR): 5.22, 95% CI: 1.49-18.25] and 14-fold for NT-proBNP (OR: 14.21, 95% CI: 1.73-116.93) after adjustment for both clinical scores and renal function. Reclassification statistics indicated that adding hs-cTnT to the GPS or the PESI significantly improved the prognostic accuracy of both clinical scores. CONCLUSION In elderly patients with nonmassive PE, NT-proBNP or hs-cTnT could be an adequate alternative to clinical scores for identifying low-risk individuals suitable for outpatient management.

Prognostic factors and risk groups in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients initially treated with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin: results of a retrospective multicenter study of 2451 patients

BACKGROUND The impact of prognostic factors in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (BCa) patients is critical for proper treatment decision making. OBJECTIVE To assess prognostic factors in patients who received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) as initial intravesical treatment of T1G3 tumors and to identify a subgroup of high-risk patients who should be considered for more aggressive treatment. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual patient data were collected for 2451 T1G3 patients from 23 centers who received BCG between 1990 and 2011. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Using Cox multivariable regression, the prognostic importance of several clinical variables was assessed for time to recurrence, progression, BCa-specific survival, and overall survival (OS). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS With a median follow-up of 5.2 yr, 465 patients (19%) progressed, 509 (21%) underwent cystectomy, and 221 (9%) died because of BCa. In multivariable analyses, the most important prognostic factors for progression were age, tumor size, and concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS); the most important prognostic factors for BCa-specific survival and OS were age and tumor size. Patients were divided into four risk groups for progression according to the number of adverse factors among age ≥ 70 yr, size ≥ 3 cm, and presence of CIS. Progression rates at 10 yr ranged from 17% to 52%. BCa-specific death rates at 10 yr were 32% in patients ≥ 70 yr with tumor size ≥ 3 cm and 13% otherwise. CONCLUSIONS T1G3 patients ≥ 70 yr with tumors ≥ 3 cm and concomitant CIS should be treated more aggressively because of the high risk of progression. PATIENT SUMMARY Although the majority of T1G3 patients can be safely treated with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin, there is a subgroup of T1G3 patients with age ≥ 70 yr, tumor size ≥ 3 cm, and concomitant CIS who have a high risk of progression and thus require aggressive treatment.

Usefulness of electrocardiographic parameters for risk prediction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia

The value of electrocardiographic findings predicting adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD) is not well known. We hypothesized that ventricular depolarization and repolarization abnormalities on the 12-lead surface electrocardiogram (ECG) predict adverse outcome in patients with ARVD. ECGs of 111 patients screened for the 2010 ARVD Task Force Criteria from 3 Swiss tertiary care centers were digitized and analyzed with a digital caliper by 2 independent observers blinded to the outcome. ECGs were compared in 2 patient groups: (1) patients with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: a composite of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or arrhythmic syncope) and (2) all remaining patients. A total of 51 patients (46%) experienced MACE during a follow-up period with median of 4.6 years (interquartile range 1.8 to 10.0). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed reduced times to MACE for patients with repolarization abnormalities according to Task Force Criteria (p = 0.009), a precordial QRS amplitude ratio (∑QRS mV V1 to V3/∑QRS mV V1 to V6) of ≤ 0.48 (p = 0.019), and QRS fragmentation (p = 0.045). In multivariable Cox regression, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39 to 6.15, p = 0.005), inferior leads T-wave inversions (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.15 to 5.18, p = 0.020), and QRS fragmentation (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.1 to 6.34, p = 0.029) remained as independent predictors of MACE. In conclusion, in this multicenter, observational, long-term study, electrocardiographic findings were useful for risk stratification in patients with ARVD, with repolarization criteria, inferior leads TWI, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48, and QRS fragmentation constituting valuable variables to predict adverse outcome.

Law and science: risk assessment and risk management in the WTO agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures

Assessing and managing risks relating to the consumption of food stuffs for humans and to the environment has been one of the most complex legal issues in WTO law, ever since the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was adopted at the end of the Uruguay Round and entered into force in 1995. The problem was expounded in a number of cases. Panels and the Appellate Body adopted different philosophies in interpreting the agreement and the basic concept of risk assessment as defined in Annex A para. 4 of the Agreement. Risk assessment entails fundamental question on law and science. Different interpretations reflect different underlying perceptions of science and its relationship to the law. The present thesis supported by the Swiss National Research Foundation undertakes an in-depth analysis of these underlying perceptions. The author expounds the essence and differences of positivism and relativism in philosophy and natural sciences. He clarifies the relationship of fundamental concepts such as risk, hazards and probability. This investigation is a remarkable effort on the part of lawyer keen to learn more about the fundamentals based upon which the law – often unconsciously – is operated by the legal profession and the trade community. Based upon these insights, he turns to a critical assessment of jurisprudence both of panels and the Appellate Body. Extensively referring and discussing the literature, he deconstructs findings and decisions in light of implied and assumed underlying philosophies and perceptions as to the relationship of law and science, in particular in the field of food standards. Finding that both positivism and relativism does not provide adequate answers, the author turns critical rationalism and applies the methodologies of falsification developed by Karl R. Popper. Critical rationalism allows combining discourse in science and law and helps preparing the ground for a new approach to risk assessment and risk management. Linking the problem to the doctrine of multilevel governance the author develops a theory allocating risk assessment to international for a while leaving the matter of risk management to national and democratically accountable government. While the author throughout the thesis questions the possibility of separating risk assessment and risk management, the thesis offers new avenues which may assist in structuring a complex and difficult problem

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis.

Synchronous carotid and coronary bypass surgery using minimal extracorporeal circulation does not increase the risk of in-hospital stroke compared to isolated carotid endarterectomy under general anaesthesia

Gebiet: Chirurgie Abstract: Introduction: Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) could be approached in a combined or a staged fashion. Some crucial studies have shown no significant difference in peri-operative stroke and death rate in combined versus staged CEA/CABG. At present conventional extracorporeal circulation (CECC) is regarded as the gold standard for performing on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting. On contrary, the use of minimized extracorporeal circulation (MECC) for CABG diminishes hemodilution, blood-air contact, foreign surface contact and inflammatory response. At the same time, general anaesthesia (GA) is a potential risk factor for higher perioperative stroke rate after isolated CEA, not only for the ipsilateral but also for the contralateral side especially in case of contralateral high-grade stenosis or occlusion. The aim of the study was to analyze if synchronous CEA/CABG using MECC (CEA/CABG group) allows reducing the perioperative stroke risk to the level of isolated CEA performed under GA (CEA-GA group). – Methods: A retrospective analysis of all patients who underwent CEA at our institution between January 2005 and December 2012 was performed. We compared outcomes between all patients undergoing CEA/CABG to all isolated CEA-GA during the same time period. The CEA/CABG group was additionally compared to a reference group consisting of patients undergoing isolated CEA in local anaesthesia. Primary outcome was in-hospital stroke. – Results: A total of 367 CEAs were performed, from which 46 patients were excluded having either off-pump CABG or other cardiac surgery procedures than CABG combined with CEA. Out of 321 patients, 74 were in the CEA/CABG and 64 in the CEA-GA group. There was a significantly higher rate of symptomatic stenoses among patients in the CEA-GA group (p<0.002). Three (4.1%) strokes in the CEA/CABG group were registered, two ipsilateral (2.7%) and one contralateral (1.4%) to the operated side. In the CEA-GA group 2 ipsilateral strokes (3.1%) occurred. No difference was noticed between the groups (p=1.000). One patient with stroke in each group had a symptomatic stenosis preoperatively. – Conclusions: Outcome with regard to mortality and neurologic injury is very good in both -patients undergoing CEA alone as well as patients undergoing synchronous CEA and CABG using the MECC system. Although the CEA/CABG group showed slightly increased risk of stroke, it can be considered as combined treatment in particular clinical situations.

Differences in Demographic Characteristics and Risk Factors in Patients With Spontaneous Vertebral Artery Dissections With and Without Ischemic Events

Spontaneous vertebral artery dissection (sVADs) mainly cause cerebral ischemia, with or without associated local symptoms and signs (headache, neck pain, or cervical radiculopathy), or with local symptoms and signs only.