Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

Return to Work after Traumatic Hand Injuries: Medical, Personal and Work-related Factors

PURPOSE This study aimed to examine the work-related impact of open hand injuries, specifically, the amount of lost work days subsequent to the injury and factors associated with work-related rehabilitation. PATIENTS AND METHODS We retrospectivley included consecutive patients with acute hand injuries who were operated between 2008 and 2009 in the Division of Hand Surgery (n=435) at the Department of Orthopaedic, Plastic and Hand Surgery. Information was obtained from the medical records and via a self-reported questionnaire sent out in 2011. Patients younger than 18 or older than 65 years, as well as the unemployed were excluded from the study. Descriptive group analysis was used to establish statistical relationships between time off work (TOW) and possible influencing variables. Multiple linear regression was applied to analyse the impact of injury, personal and/or work-related factors on TOW. RESULTS The sample included 290 patients with a mean age of 38.9 (SD 13.2) years of whom 98.6% returned to work after a median absence of 45.5 days. Univariate analysis demonstrated an association of length of absence from work with socio-demographic, clinical and work-related factors. Multiple regression analysis indicated that the location of injury, the number of injured regions, the need for secondary surgery, age, and the type of occupation were independently associated with TOW. CONCLUSION Most factors associated with TOW after traumatic hand injuries could not be influenced. Possible interventions should probably target improved injury prevention, optimal clinical treatment and rehabilitation starting early after injury. Whether improvements in communication and enhancement of cooperation between the treatment teams, the workplace and the insurance carrier may support a staged and earlier return to work remains to be investigated.