An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250

Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus, can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations, estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate, potassium, and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680, following an extremely dry period AD 1540-1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540-1680, the increase in fire activity AD 1600-1680, and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600-1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years, despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions.

Thermal right-handed neutrino self-energy in the non-relativistic regime

Recently the issue of radiative corrections to leptogenesis has been raised. Considering the "strong washout" regime, in which OPE-techniques permit to streamline the setup, we report the thermal self-energy matrix of heavy right-handed neutrinos at NLO (resummed 2-loop level) in Standard Model couplings. The renormalized expression describes flavour transitions and "inclusive" decays of chemically decoupled right-handed neutrinos. Although CP-violation is not addressed, the result may find use in existing leptogenesis frameworks.

A neural network approach for insulin regime and dose adjustment in type 1 diabetes

A decision support system based on a neural network approach is proposed to advise on insulin regime and dose adjustment for type 1 diabetes patients.

Thermal right-handed neutrino production rate in the relativistic regime

The production rate of right-handed neutrinos from a Standard Model plasma at a temperature above a hundred GeV is evaluated up to NLO in Standard Model couplings. The results apply in the so-called relativistic regime, referring parametrically to a mass M ~ πT, generalizing thereby previous NLO results which only apply in the non-relativistic regime M ≫ πT. The non-relativistic expansion is observed to converge for M ≳ 15T, but the smallness of any loop corrections allows it to be used in practice already for M ≳ 4T. In the latter regime any non-covariant dependence of the differential rate on the spatial momentum is shown to be mild. The loop expansion breaks down in the ultrarelativistic regime M ≪ πT, but after a simple mass resummation it nevertheless extrapolates reasonably well towards a result obtained previously through complete LPM resummation, apparently confirming a strong enhancement of the rate at high temperatures (which facilitates chemical equilibration). When combined with other ingredients the results may help to improve upon the accuracy of leptogenesis computations operating above the electroweak scale.

Lessons from the Multilateral Trading System for Reforming the Architecture of the International Environmental Regime

Recent studies on environmental regimes suggest that important lessons and policy recommendations may be drawn from the functioning of the multilateral trading regime. This brief compares the needs and goals of the trade and environment regimes, and discusses how insights from over sixty years of experience of the multilateral trading system might provide ideas for redesigning the architecture of the international environmental regime. It further calls for a better dialogue and improved complementarities between the two fields in order to enhance coherence within international law.