25 resultados para R15 - Econometric and Input Output Models
Resumo:
Vascular surgical training currently has to cope with various challenges, including restrictions on work hours, significant reduction of open surgical training cases in many countries, an increasing diversity of open and endovascular procedures, and distinct expectations by trainees. Even more important, patients and the public no longer accept a "learning by doing" training philosophy that leaves the learning curve on the patient's side. The Vascular International (VI) Foundation and School aims to overcome these obstacles by training conventional vascular and endovascular techniques before they are applied on patients. To achieve largely realistic training conditions, lifelike pulsatile models with exchangeable synthetic arterial inlays were created to practice carotid endarterectomy and patch plasty, open abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery, and peripheral bypass surgery, as well as for endovascular procedures, including endovascular aneurysm repair, thoracic endovascular aortic repair, peripheral balloon dilatation, and stenting. All models are equipped with a small pressure pump inside to create pulsatile flow conditions with variable peak pressures of ~90 mm Hg. The VI course schedule consists of a series of 2-hour modules teaching different open or endovascular procedures step-by-step in a standardized fashion. Trainees practice in pairs with continuous supervision and intensive advice provided by highly experienced vascular surgical trainers (trainer-to-trainee ratio is 1:4). Several evaluations of these courses show that tutor-assisted training on lifelike models in an educational-centered and motivated environment is associated with a significant increase of general and specific vascular surgical technical competence within a short period of time. Future studies should evaluate whether these benefits positively influence the future learning curve of vascular surgical trainees and clarify to what extent sophisticated models are useful to assess the level of technical skills of vascular surgical residents at national or international board examinations. This article gives an overview of our experiences of >20 years of practical training of beginners and advanced vascular surgeons using lifelike pulsatile vascular surgical training models.
Resumo:
Monte Carlo (code GEANT) produced 6 and 15 MV phase space (PS) data were used to define several simple photon beam models. For creating the PS data the energy of starting electrons hitting the target was tuned to get correct depth dose data compared to measurements. The modeling process used the full PS information within the geometrical boundaries of the beam including all scattered radiation of the accelerator head. Scattered radiation outside the boundaries was neglected. Photons and electrons were assumed to be radiated from point sources. Four different models were investigated which involved different ways to determine the energies and locations of beam particles in the output plane. Depth dose curves, profiles, and relative output factors were calculated with these models for six field sizes from 5x5 to 40x40cm2 and compared to measurements. Model 1 uses a photon energy spectrum independent of location in the PS plane and a constant photon fluence in this plane. Model 2 takes into account the spatial particle fluence distribution in the PS plane. A constant fluence is used again in model 3, but the photon energy spectrum depends upon the off axis position. Model 4, finally uses the spatial particle fluence distribution and off axis dependent photon energy spectra in the PS plane. Depth dose curves and profiles for field sizes up to 10x10cm2 were not model sensitive. Good agreement between measured and calculated depth dose curves and profiles for all field sizes was reached for model 4. However, increasing deviations were found for increasing field sizes for models 1-3. Large deviations resulted for the profiles of models 2 and 3. This is due to the fact that these models overestimate and underestimate the energy fluence at large off axis distances. Relative output factors consistent with measurements resulted only for model 4.
Resumo:
Reproductive skew theory seeks to integrate social and ecological factors thought to influence the division of reproduction among group-living animals. However, most reproductive skew models only examine interactions between individuals of the same sex. Here, we suggest that females can influence group stability and conflict among males by modifying their clutch size and may do so if they benefit from the presence of subordinate male helpers or from reduced conflict. We develop 3 models, based on concessions-based, restraint, and tug-of-war models, in which female clutch size is variable and ask when females will increase their clutch size above that which would be optimal in the absence of male-male conflict. In concessions-based and restraint models, females should increase clutch size above their optima if the benefits of staying for subordinate males are relatively low. Relatedness between males has no effect on clutch size. When females do increase clutch size, the division of reproduction between males is not influenced by relatedness and does not differ between restraint and concessions-based models. Both of these predictions are in sharp contrast to previous models. In tug-of-war models, clutch size is strongly influenced by relatedness between males, with the largest clutches, but the fewest surviving offspring, produced when males are unrelated. These 3 models demonstrate the importance of considering third-party interests in the decisions of group-living organisms.
Resumo:
In many animals, males congregate in leks that females visit for the sole purpose of mating. We observed male and female behavior on 3 different-sized leks of the bower-building cichlid fish Nyassachromis cf. microcephalus to test predictions of 3 prominent lek models: the "hotshot," "hot spot," and "female preference" models. In this system, we were able to refine these predictions by distinguishing between indirect mate choice, by which females restrict their set of potential mates in the absence of individual male assessment, and direct mate choice, by which females assess males and their territories through dyadic behavioral interactions. On no lek were males holding central territories favored by indirect or direct mate choice, contrary to the prediction of the hotshot model that leks form because inferior males establish territories surrounding hotshot males preferred by females. Average female encounter rate of males increased with lek size, a pattern typically interpreted as evidence that leks form through female preference for lekking males, rather than because males congregate in hot spots of high female density. Female propensity to engage in premating behavior once courted did not increase with lek size, suggesting female preference for males on larger leks operated through indirect choice rather than direct choice based on individual assessment. The frequency of male-male competitive interactions increased with lek size, whereas their foraging rate decreased, implying a cost to males maintaining territories on larger leks. Together these data most strongly support the female preference model, where females may benefit through indirect mate choice for males able to meet the competitive cost of occupying larger leks.
Resumo:
Plant diversity has been shown to influence the water cycle of forest ecosystems by differences in water consumption and the associated effects on groundwater recharge. However, the effects of biodiversity on soil water fluxes remain poorly understood for native tree species plantations in the tropics. Therefore, we estimated soil water fluxes and assessed the effects of tree species and diversity on these fluxes in an experimental native tree species plantation in Sardinilla (Panama). The study was conducted during the wet season 2008 on plots of monocultures and mixtures of three or six tree species. Rainfall and soil water content were measured and evapotranspiration was estimated with the Penman-Monteith equation. Soil water fluxes were estimated using a simple soil water budget model considering water input, output, and soil water and groundwater storage changes and in addition, were simulated using the physically based one-dimensional water flow model Hydrus-1D. In general, the Hydrus simulation did not reflect the observed pressure heads, in that modeled pressure heads were higher compared to measured ones. On the other hand, the results of the water balance equation (WBE) reproduced observed water use patterns well. In monocultures, the downward fluxes through the 200 cm-depth plane were highest below Hura crepitans (6.13 mm day−1) and lowest below Luehea seemannii (5.18 mm day−1). The average seepage rate in monocultures (±SE) was 5.66 ± 0.18 mm day−1, and therefore, significantly higher than below six-species mixtures (5.49 ± 0.04 mm day−1) according to overyielding analyses. The three-species mixtures had an average seepage rate of 5.63 ± 0.12 mm day−1 and their values did not differ significantly from the average values of the corresponding species in monocultures. Seepage rates were driven by the transpiration of the varying biomass among the plots (r = 0.61, p = 0.017). Thus, a mixture of trees with different growth rates resulted in moderate seepage rates compared to monocultures of either fast growing or slow growing tree species. Our results demonstrate that tree-species specific biomass production and tree diversity are important controls of seepage rates in the Sardinilla plantation during the wet season.
Resumo:
The purpose of the internet-based teachware mySCM is that students of economics, informatics and industrial engineering get familiar with quantitative methods for supply chain management. Input-output-relationships of various optimization methods can be detected by sampling input values, parameters, and alternative methods for the same problem. Students can gain extra benefits by passing so-called mini-exams that motivate active learning. mySCM can be used for free, round-the-clock, and any place where access to the Internet is available.
Resumo:
Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.
Resumo:
Research has shown repeatedly that the “feeling better” effect of exercise is far more moderate than generally claimed. Examinations of subgroups in secondary analyses also indicate that numerous further variables influence this relationship. One reason for inconsistencies in this research field is the lack of adequate theoretical analyses. Well-being output variables frequently possess no construct definition, and little attention is paid to moderating and mediating variables. This article integrates the main models in an overview and analyzes how secondary analyses define well-being and which areas of the construct they focus on. It then applies a moderator and/or mediator framework to examine which person and environmental variables can be found in the existing explanatory approaches in sport science and how they specify the influence of these moderating and mediating variables. Results show that the broad understanding of well-being in many secondary analyses makes findings difficult to interpret. Moreover, physiological explanatory approaches focus more on affective changes in well-being, whereas psychological approaches also include cognitive changes. The approaches focus mostly on either physical or psychological person variables and rarely combine the two, as in, for example, the dual-mode model. Whereas environmental variables specifying the treatment more closely (e.g., its intensity) are comparatively frequent, only the social support model formulates variables such as the framework in which exercise is presented. The majority of explanatory approaches use simple moderator and/or mediator models such as the basic mediated (e.g., distraction hypothesis) or multiple mediated (e.g., monoamine hypotheses) model. The discussion draws conclusions for future research.
Resumo:
The interaction of a comet with the solar wind undergoes various stages as the comet’s activity varies along its orbit. For a comet like 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, the target comet of ESA’s Rosetta mission, the various features include the formation of a Mach cone, the bow shock, and close to perihelion even a diamagnetic cavity. There are different approaches to simulate this complex interplay between the solar wind and the comet’s extended neutral gas coma which include magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and hybrid-type models. The first treats the plasma as fluids (one fluid in basic single fluid MHD) and the latter treats the ions as individual particles under the influence of the local electric and magnetic fields. The electrons are treated as a charge-neutralizing fluid in both cases. Given the different approaches both models yield different results, in particular for a low production rate comet. In this paper we will show that these differences can be reduced when using a multifluid instead of a single-fluid MHD model and increase the resolution of the Hybrid model. We will show that some major features obtained with a hybrid type approach like the gyration of the cometary heavy ions and the formation of the Mach cone can be partially reproduced with the multifluid-type model.
Resumo:
Despite the strong increase in observational data on extrasolar planets, the processes that led to the formation of these planets are still not well understood. However, thanks to the high number of extrasolar planets that have been discovered, it is now possible to look at the planets as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical formation models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis where synthetic planetary populations are generated and compared to the actual population. The key element of the population synthesis method is a global model of planet formation and evolution. These models directly predict observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disc, linking two important classes of astrophysical objects. To do so, global models build on the simplified results of many specialized models that address one specific physical mechanism. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disc (of gas and solids), those that describe one (proto)planet (its solid core, gaseous envelope and atmosphere), and finally those that describe the interactions (orbital migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches taken in different global models, discuss the links between specialized and global models, and identify physical processes that require improved descriptions in future work. We then shortly address important results of planetary population synthesis like the planetary mass function or the mass-radius relationship. With these statistical results, the global effects of physical mechanisms occurring during planet formation and evolution become apparent, and specialized models describing them can be put to the observational test. Owing to their nature as meta models, global models depend on the results of specialized models, and therefore on the development of the field of planet formation theory as a whole. Because there are important uncertainties in this theory, it is likely that the global models will in future undergo significant modifications. Despite these limitations, global models can already now yield many testable predictions. With future global models addressing the geophysical characteristics of the synthetic planets, it should eventually become possible to make predictions about the habitability of planets based on their formation and evolution.