44 resultados para Probit estimations
Resumo:
The double-echo-steady-state (DESS) sequence generates two signal echoes that are characterized by a different contrast behavior. Based on these two contrasts, the underlying T2 can be calculated. For a flip-angle of 90 degrees , the calculated T2 becomes independent of T1, but with very low signal-to-noise ratio. In the present study, the estimation of cartilage T2, based on DESS with a reduced flip-angle, was investigated, with the goal of optimizing SNR, and simultaneously minimizing the error in T2. This approach was validated in phantoms and on volunteers. T2 estimations based on DESS at different flip-angles were compared with standard multiecho, spin-echo T2. Furthermore, DESS-T2 estimations were used in a volunteer and in an initial study on patients after cartilage repair of the knee. A flip-angle of 33 degrees was the best compromise for the combination of DESS-T2 mapping and morphological imaging. For this flip angle, the Pearson correlation was 0.993 in the phantom study (approximately 20% relative difference between SE-T2 and DESS-T2); and varied between 0.429 and 0.514 in the volunteer study. Measurements in patients showed comparable results for both techniques with regard to zonal assessment. This DESS-T2 approach represents an opportunity to combine morphological and quantitative cartilage MRI in a rapid one-step examination.
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To address food safety concerns of the public regarding the potential transfer of recombinant DNA (cry1Ab) and protein (Cry1Ab) into the milk of cows fed genetically modified maize (MON810), a highly specific and sensitive quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and an ELISA were developed for monitoring suspicious presence of novel DNA and Cry1Ab protein in bovine milk. The developed assays were validated according to the assay validation criteria specified in the European Commission Decision 2002/657/EC. The detection limit and detection capability of the qPCR and ELISA were 100 copies of cry1Ab microL(-1) milk and 0.4 ng mL(-1) Cry1Ab, respectively. Recovery rates of 84.9% (DNA) and 97% (protein) and low (<15%) imprecision revealed the reliable and accurate estimations. A specific qPCR amplification and use of a specific antibody in ELISA ascertained the high specificity of the assays. Using these assays for 90 milk samples collected from cows fed either transgenic (n = 8) or non-transgenic (n = 7) rations for 6 months, neither cry1Ab nor Cry1Ab protein were detected in any analyzed sample at the assay detection limits.
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In this paper, a simulation model of glucose-insulin metabolism for Type 1 diabetes patients is presented. The proposed system is based on the combination of Compartmental Models (CMs) and artificial Neural Networks (NNs). This model aims at the development of an accurate system, in order to assist Type 1 diabetes patients to handle their blood glucose profile and recognize dangerous metabolic states. Data from a Type 1 diabetes patient, stored in a database, have been used as input to the hybrid system. The data contain information about measured blood glucose levels, insulin intake, and description of food intake, along with the corresponding time. The data are passed to three separate CMs, which produce estimations about (i) the effect of Short Acting (SA) insulin intake on blood insulin concentration, (ii) the effect of Intermediate Acting (IA) insulin intake on blood insulin concentration, and (iii) the effect of carbohydrate intake on blood glucose absorption from the gut. The outputs of the three CMs are passed to a Recurrent NN (RNN) in order to predict subsequent blood glucose levels. The RNN is trained with the Real Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) algorithm. The resulted blood glucose predictions are promising for the use of the proposed model for blood glucose level estimation for Type 1 diabetes patients.
Resumo:
Data assimilation methods used for transient atmospheric state estimations in paleoclimatology such as covariance-based approaches, analogue techniques and nudging are briefly introduced. With applications differing widely, a plurality of approaches appears to be the logical way forward.
Children's performance estimation in mathematics and science tests over a school year: A pilot study
Resumo:
The metacognitve ability to accurately estimate ones performance in a test, is assumed to be of central importance for initializing task-oriented effort. In addition activating adequate problem-solving strategies, and engaging in efficient error detection and correction. Although school children's' ability to estimate their own performance has been widely investigated, this was mostly done under highly-controlled, experimental set-ups including only one single test occasion. Method: The aim of this study was to investigate this metacognitive ability in the context of real achievement tests in mathematics. Developed and applied by a teacher of a 5th grade class over the course of a school year these tests allowed the exploration of the variability of performance estimation accuracy as a function of test difficulty. Results: Mean performance estimations were generally close to actual performance with somewhat less variability compared to test performance. When grouping the children into three achievement levels, results revealed higher accuracy of performance estimations in the high achievers compared to the low and average achievers. In order to explore the generalization of these findings, analyses were also conducted for the same children's tests in their science classes revealing a very similar pattern of results compared to the domain of mathematics. Discussion and Conclusion: By and large, the present study, in a natural environment, confirmed previous laboratory findings but also offered additional insights into the generalisation and the test dependency of students' performances estimations.
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The COSMIC-2 mission is a follow-on mission of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) with an upgraded payload for improved radio occultation (RO) applications. The objective of this paper is to develop a near-real-time (NRT) orbit determination system, called NRT National Chiao Tung University (NCTU) system, to support COSMIC-2 in atmospheric applications and verify the orbit product of COSMIC. The system is capable of automatic determinations of the NRT GPS clocks and LEO orbit and clock. To assess the NRT (NCTU) system, we use eight days of COSMIC data (March 24-31, 2011), which contain a total of 331 GPS observation sessions and 12 393 RO observable files. The parallel scheduling for independent GPS and LEO estimations and automatic time matching improves the computational efficiency by 64% compared to the sequential scheduling. Orbit difference analyses suggest a 10-cm accuracy for the COSMIC orbits from the NRT (NCTU) system, and it is consistent as the NRT University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (URCA) system. The mean velocity accuracy from the NRT orbits of COSMIC is 0.168 mm/s, corresponding to an error of about 0.051 μrad in the bending angle. The rms differences in the NRT COSMIC clock and in GPS clocks between the NRT (NCTU) and the postprocessing products are 3.742 and 1.427 ns. The GPS clocks determined from a partial ground GPS network [from NRT (NCTU)] and a full one [from NRT (UCAR)] result in mean rms frequency stabilities of 6.1E-12 and 2.7E-12, respectively, corresponding to range fluctuations of 5.5 and 2.4 cm and bending angle errors of 3.75 and 1.66 μrad .
Resumo:
The diffusion properties of the Opalinus Clay were studied in the underground research laboratory at Mont Terri (Canton Jura, Switzerland) and the results were compared with diffusion data measured in the laboratory on small-scale samples. The diffusion of HTO, Na-22(+), Cs+ and I- were investigated for a period of 10 months. The diffusion equipment used in the field experiment was designed in such a way that a solution of tracers was circulated through a sintered metal screen placed at the end of a borehole drilled in the formation. The concentration decrease caused by the diffusion of tracers into the rock could be followed with time and allowed first estimations of the effective diffusion coefficient. After 10 months, the diffusion zone was over-cored and the tracer profiles measured. From these profiles, effective diffusion coefficients and rock capacity factors Could be extracted by applying a two-dimensional transport model including diffusion and sorption. The simulations were done with the reactive transport code CRUNCH. In addition, results obtained from through-diffusion experiments oil small-sized samples with HTO, Cl-36(-) and Na-22(+) are presented and compared with the in situ data. In all cases. excellent agreement between the two data sets exists. Results for Cs+ indicated five times higher diffusion rates relative to HTO. Corresponding laboratory diffusion measurements are still lacking. However. our Cs+ data are in qualitative agreement wish through-diffusion data for Callovo-Oxfordian argillite rock samples. which also indicate significantly higher effective diffusivities for Cs+ relative to HTO.
Resumo:
Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is a valuable tool for the detection and quantification of HIV-1 variants in vivo. However, these technologies require detailed characterization and control of artificially induced errors to be applicable for accurate haplotype reconstruction. To investigate the occurrence of substitutions, insertions, and deletions at the individual steps of RT-PCR and NGS, 454 pyrosequencing was performed on amplified and non-amplified HIV-1 genomes. Artificial recombination was explored by mixing five different HIV-1 clonal strains (5-virus-mix) and applying different RT-PCR conditions followed by 454 pyrosequencing. Error rates ranged from 0.04-0.66% and were similar in amplified and non-amplified samples. Discrepancies were observed between forward and reverse reads, indicating that most errors were introduced during the pyrosequencing step. Using the 5-virus-mix, non-optimized, standard RT-PCR conditions introduced artificial recombinants in a fraction of at least 30% of the reads that subsequently led to an underestimation of true haplotype frequencies. We minimized the fraction of recombinants down to 0.9-2.6% by optimized, artifact-reducing RT-PCR conditions. This approach enabled correct haplotype reconstruction and frequency estimations consistent with reference data obtained by single genome amplification. RT-PCR conditions are crucial for correct frequency estimation and analysis of haplotypes in heterogeneous virus populations. We developed an RT-PCR procedure to generate NGS data useful for reliable haplotype reconstruction and quantification.
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Dendrogeomorphology uses information sources recorded in the roots, trunks and branches of trees and bushes located in the fluvial system to complement (or sometimes even replace) systematic and palaeohydrological records of past floods. The application of dendrogeomorphic data sources and methods to palaeoflood analysis over nearly 40 years has allowed improvements to be made in frequency and magnitude estimations of past floods. Nevertheless, research carried out so far has shown that the dendrogeomorphic indicators traditionally used (mainly scar evidence), and their use to infer frequency and magnitude, have been restricted to a small, limited set of applications. New possibilities with enormous potential remain unexplored. New insights in future research of palaeoflood frequency and magnitude using dendrogeomorphic data sources should: (1) test the application of isotopic indicators (16O/18O ratio) to discover the meteorological origin of past floods; (2) use different dendrogeomorphic indicators to estimate peak flows with 2D (and 3D) hydraulic models and study how they relate to other palaeostage indicators; (3) investigate improved calibration of 2D hydraulic model parameters (roughness); and (4) apply statistics-based cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. This paper presents an overview of these innovative methodologies, with a focus on their capabilities and limitations in the reconstruction of recent floods and palaeofloods.
Resumo:
The clinical demand for a device to monitor Blood Pressure (BP) in ambulatory scenarios with minimal use of inflation cuffs is increasing. Based on the so-called Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) principle, this paper introduces and evaluates a novel concept of BP monitor that can be fully integrated within a chest sensor. After a preliminary calibration, the sensor provides non-occlusive beat-by-beat estimations of Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) by measuring the Pulse Transit Time (PTT) of arterial pressure pulses travelling from the ascending aorta towards the subcutaneous vasculature of the chest. In a cohort of 15 healthy male subjects, a total of 462 simultaneous readings consisting of reference MAP and chest PTT were acquired. Each subject was recorded at three different days: D, D+3 and D+14. Overall, the implemented protocol induced MAP values to range from 80 ± 6 mmHg in baseline, to 107 ± 9 mmHg during isometric handgrip maneuvers. Agreement between reference and chest-sensor MAP values was tested by using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC = 0.78) and Bland-Altman analysis (mean error = 0.7 mmHg, standard deviation = 5.1 mmHg). The cumulative percentage of MAP values provided by the chest sensor falling within a range of ±5 mmHg compared to reference MAP readings was of 70%, within ±10 mmHg was of 91%, and within ±15mmHg was of 98%. These results point at the fact that the chest sensor complies with the British Hypertension Society (BHS) requirements of Grade A BP monitors, when applied to MAP readings. Grade A performance was maintained even two weeks after having performed the initial subject-dependent calibration. In conclusion, this paper introduces a sensor and a calibration strategy to perform MAP measurements at the chest. The encouraging performance of the presented technique paves the way towards an ambulatory-compliant, continuous and non-occlusive BP monitoring system.
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Background Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. Methods We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence = Incidence x Duration’ in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship ‘incident = true incident + false incident’ and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. Results Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R2 = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. Conclusions IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.
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Designs for deep geological respositories of nuclear waste include bentonite as a hydraulic and chemisorption buffer material to protect the biosphere from leakage of radionuclides. Bentonite is chosen because it is a cheap, naturally occurring material with the required properties. It consists essentially of montmorillonite, a swelling clay mineral. Upon contact with groundwater such clays can seal the repository by incorporating water in the interlayers of their crystalline structure. The intercalated water exhibits significantly different properties to bulk water in the surrounding interparticle pores, such as lower diffusion coefficients (González Sánchez et. al. 2008). This doctoral thesis presents water distribution and diffusion behavior on various time and space scales in montmorillonite. Experimental results are presented for Na- and Cs-montmorillonite samples with a range of bulk dry densities (0.8 to 1.7 g/cm3). The experimental methods employed were neutron scattering (backscattering, diffraction, time-of-flight), adsorption measurements (water, nitrogen) and tracer-through diffusion. For the tracer experiments the samples were fully saturated via the liquid phase under volume-constrained conditions. In contrast, for the neutron scattering experiments, the samples were hydrated via the vapor phase and subsequently compacted, leaving a significant fraction of interparticle pores unfilled with water. Owing to these differences in saturation, the water contents of the samples for neutron scattering were characterized by gravimetry whereas those for the tracer experiments were obtained from the bulk dry density. The amount of surface water in interlayer pores could be successfully discriminated from the amount of bulk-like water in interparticle pores in Na- and Csmontmorillonite using neutron spectroscopy. For the first time in the literature, the distribution of water between these two pore environments was deciphered as a function of gravimetric water content. The amount was compared to a geometrical estimation of the amount of interlayer and interparticle water determined by neutron diffraction and adsorption measurements. The relative abundances of the 1 to 4 molecular water layers in the interlayer were determined from the area ratios of the (001)-diffraction peaks. Depending on the characterization method, different fractions of surface water and interlayer water were obtained. Only surface and interlayer water exists in amontmorillonite with water contents up to 0.18 g/g according to spectroscopic measurements and up to 0.32 g/g according to geometrical estimations, respectively. At higher water contents, bulk-like and interparticle water also exists. The amounts increase monotonically, but not linearly, from zero to 0.33 g/g for bulk-like water and to 0.43 g/g for interparticle water. It was found that water most likely redistributes between the surface and interlayer sites during the spectroscopic measurements and therefore the reported fraction is relevant only below about -10 ºC (Anderson, 1967). The redistribution effect can explain the discrepancy in fractions between the methods. In a novel approach the fractions of water in different pore environments were treated as a fixed parameter to derive local diffusion coefficients for water from quasielastic neutron scattering data, in particular for samples with high water contents. Local diffusion coefficients were obtained for the 1 to 4 molecular water layers in the interlayer of 0.5·10–9, 0.9·10–9, 1.5·10–9 and 1.4·10–9 m²/s, respectively, taking account of the different water fractions (molecular water layer, bulk-like water). The diffusive transport of 22Na and HTO through Na-montmorillonite was measured on the laboratory experimental scale (i.e. cm, days) by tracer through-diffusion experiments. We confirmed that diffusion of HTO is independent of the ionic strength of the external solution in contact with the clay sample but dependent on the bulk dry density. In contrast, the diffusion of 22Na was found to depend on both the ionic strength of the pore solution and on the bulk dry density. The ratio of the pore and surface diffusion could be experimentally determined for 22Na from the dependence of the diffusion coefficient on the ionic strength. Activation energies were derived from the temperaturedependent diffusion coefficients via the Arrhenius relation. In samples with high bulk dry density the activation energies are slightly higher than those of bulk water whereas in low density samples they are lower. The activation energies as a function of ionic strengths of the pore solutions are similar for 22Na and HTO. The facts that (i) the slope of the logarithmic effective diffusion coefficients as a function of the logarithmic ionic strength is less than unity for low bulk dry densities and (ii) two water populations can be observed for high gravimetric water contents (low bulk dry densities) support the interlayer and interparticle porosity model proposed by Glaus et al. (2007), Bourg et al. (2006, 2007) and Gimmi and Kosakowski (2011).
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The acquisition of accurate information on the size of traits in animals is fundamental for the study of animal ecology and evolution and their management. We demonstrate how morphological traits of free-ranging animals can reliably be estimated on very large observation distances of several hundred meters by the use of ordinary digital photographic equipment and simple photogrammetric software. In our study, we estimated the length of horn annuli in free-ranging male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) by taking already measured horn annuli of conspecifics on the same photographs as scaling units. Comparisons with hand-measured horn annuli lengths and repeatability analyses revealed a high accuracy of the photogrammetric estimates. If length estimations of specific horn annuli are based on multiple photographs measurement errors of <5.5 mm can be expected. In the current study the application of the described photogrammetric procedure increased the sample size of animals with known horn annuli length by an additional 104%. The presented photogrammetric procedure is of broad applicability and represents an easy, robust and cost-efficient method for the measuring of individuals in populations where animals are hard to capture or to approach.
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In personal and in society related context, people often evaluate the risk of environmental and technological hazards. Previous research addressing neuroscience of risk evaluation assessed particularly the direct personal risk of presented stimuli, which may have comprised for instance aspects of fear. Further, risk evaluation primarily was compared to tasks of other cognitive domains serving as control conditions, thus revealing general risk related brain activity, but not such specifically associated with estimating a higher level of risk. We here investigated the neural basis on which lay-persons individually evaluated the risk of different potential hazards for the society. Twenty healthy subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while evaluating the risk of fifty more or less risky conditions presented as written terms. Brain activations during the individual estimations of 'high' against 'low' risk, and of negative versus neutral and positive emotional valences were analyzed. Estimating hazards to be of high risk was associated with activation in medial thalamus, anterior insula, caudate nucleus, cingulate cortex and further prefrontal and temporo-occipital areas. These areas were not involved according to an analysis of the emotion ratings. In conclusion, we emphasize a contribution of the mentioned brain areas involved to signal high risk, here not primarily associated with the emotional valence of the risk items. These areas have earlier been reported to be associated with, beside emotional, viscerosensitive and implicit processing. This leads to assumptions of an intuitive contribution, or a "gut-feeling", not necessarily dependent of the subjective emotional valence, when estimating a high risk of environmental hazards.
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The upconversion quantum yield (UCQY) is one of the most significant parameters for upconverter materials. A high UCQY is essential for a succesful integration of upconversion in many applications, such as harvesting of the solar radiation. However, little is known about which doping level of the rare-earth ions yields the highest UCQY in the different host lattices and what are the underlying causes. Here, we investigate which Er3+ doping yields the highest UCQY in the host lattices β-NaYF4 and Gd2O2S under 4I15/2 → 4I13/2 excitation. We show for both host lattices that the optimum Er3+ doping is not fixed and it actually decreases as the irradiance of the excitation increases. To find the optimum Er3+ doping for a given irradiance, we determined the peak position of the internal UCQY as a function of the average Er−Er distance. For this purpose, we used a fit on experimental data, where the average Er−Er distance was calculated from the Er3+ doping of the upconverter samples and the lattice parameters of the host materials. We observe optimum average Er−Er distances for the host lattices β-NaYF4 and Gd2O2S with differences <14% at the same irradiance levels, whereas the optimum Er3+ doping are around 2× higher for β-NaYF4 than for Gd2O2S. Estimations by extrapolation to higher irradiances indicate that the optimum average Er−Er distance converges to values around 0.88 and 0.83 nm for β-NaYF4 and Gd2O2S, respectively. Our findings point to a fundamental relationship and focusing on the average distance between the active rare-earth ions might be a very efficient way to optimize the doping of rare-earth ions with regard to the highest achievable UCQY.