29 resultados para Probability and Statistics
Resumo:
This paper presents the asymptotic theory for nondegenerate U-statistics of high frequency observations of continuous Itô semimartingales. We prove uniform convergence in probability and show a functional stable central limit theorem for the standardized version of the U-statistic. The limiting process in the central limit theorem turns out to be conditionally Gaussian with mean zero. Finally, we indicate potential statistical applications of our probabilistic results.
Resumo:
Particle biokinetics is important in hazard identification and characterization of inhaled particles. Such studies intend to convert external to internal exposure or biologically effective dose, and may help to set limits in that way. Here we focus on the biokinetics of inhaled nanometer sized particles in comparison to micrometer sized ones.The presented approach ranges from inhaled particle deposition probability and retention in the respiratory tract to biokinetics and clearance of particles out of the respiratory tract. Particle transport into the blood circulation (translocation), towards secondary target organs and tissues (accumulation), and out of the body (clearance) is considered. The macroscopically assessed amount of particles in the respiratory tract and secondary target organs provides dose estimates for toxicological studies on the level of the whole organism. Complementary, microscopic analyses at the individual particle level provide detailed information about which cells and subcellular components are the target of inhaled particles. These studies contribute to shed light on mechanisms and modes of action eventually leading to adverse health effects by inhaled nanoparticles.We review current methods for macroscopic and microscopic analyses of particle deposition, retention and clearance. Existing macroscopic knowledge on particle biokinetics and microscopic views on particle organ interactions are discussed comparing nanometer and micrometer sized particles. We emphasize the importance for quantitative analyses and the use of particle doses derived from real world exposures.
Resumo:
Background: With expanding pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, children will begin to experience treatment failure and require second-line therapy. We evaluated the probability and determinants of virologic failure and switching in children in South Africa. Methods: Pooled analysis of routine individual data from children who initiated ART in 7 South African treatment programs with 6-monthly viral load and CD4 monitoring produced Kaplan-Meier estimates of probability of virologic failure (2 consecutive unsuppressed viral loads with the second being >1000 copies/mL, after ≥24 weeks of therapy) and switch to second-line. Cox-proportional hazards models stratified by program were used to determine predictors of these outcomes. Results: The 3-year probability of virologic failure among 5485 children was 19.3% (95% confidence interval: 17.6 to 21.1). Use of nevirapine or ritonavir alone in the initial regimen (compared with efavirenz) and exposure to prevention of mother to child transmission regimens were independently associated with failure [adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval): 1.77 (1.11 to 2.83), 2.39 (1.57 to 3.64) and 1.40 (1.02 to 1.92), respectively]. Among 252 children with ≥1 year follow-up after failure, 38% were switched to second-line. Median (interquartile range) months between failure and switch was 5.7 (2.9-11.0). Conclusions: Triple ART based on nevirapine or ritonavir as a single protease inhibitor seems to be associated with a higher risk of virologic failure. A low proportion of virologically failing children were switched.
Resumo:
Employing a scanning tunneling microscopy based beak junction technique and mechanically controlled break junction experiments, we investigated tolane (diphenylacetylene)-type single molecular junctions having four different anchoring groups (SH, pyridyl (PY), NH2, and CN) at a solid/liquid interface. The combination of current–distance and current–voltage measurements and their quantitative statistical analysis revealed the following sequence for junction formation probability and stability: PY > SH > NH2 > CN. For all single molecular junctions investigated, we observed the evolution through multiple junction configurations, with a particularly well-defined binding geometry for PY. The comparison of density functional theory type model calculations and molecular dynamics simulations with the experimental results revealed structure and mechanistic details of the evolution of the different types of (single) molecular junctions upon stretching quantitatively.
Resumo:
Let P be a probability distribution on q -dimensional space. The so-called Diaconis-Freedman effect means that for a fixed dimension d<and sufficient conditions for this phenomenon in a suitable asymptotic framework with increasing dimension q . It turns out, that the conditions formulated by Diaconis and Freedman (1984) are not only sufficient but necessary as well. Moreover, letting P ^ be the empirical distribution of n independent random vectors with distribution P , we investigate the behavior of the empirical process n √ (P ^ −P) under random projections, conditional on P ^ .
Resumo:
This paper introduces and analyzes a stochastic search method for parameter estimation in linear regression models in the spirit of Beran and Millar [Ann. Statist. 15(3) (1987) 1131–1154]. The idea is to generate a random finite subset of a parameter space which will automatically contain points which are very close to an unknown true parameter. The motivation for this procedure comes from recent work of Dümbgen et al. [Ann. Statist. 39(2) (2011) 702–730] on regression models with log-concave error distributions.
Resumo:
This progress report focuses on the contribution of tree-ring series to rockfall research and on recent development and challenges in the field. Dendrogeomorphic techniques have been used extensively since the early 2000s and several approaches have been developed to extract rockfall signals from tree-ring records of conifer trees. The reconstruction of rockfall chronologies has been hampered in the past by sample sizes that decrease as one goes back in time, as well as by a paucity of studies that include broadleaved tree species, which are in fact quite common in rockfall-prone environments. In this report, we propose a new approach considering impact probability and quantification of uncertainty in the reconstruction of rockfall time series as well as a quantitative estimate of presumably missed events. In addition, we outline new approaches and future perspectives for the inclusion of woody vegetation in hazard assessment procedures, and end with future thematic perspectives.
Resumo:
Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a grey-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a BMD-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables and outcomes during follow up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% CI: 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR 1.32, 95%CI: 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95%CI: 1.65, 1.87 vs. 1.70, 95%CI: 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This paper deals with sequences of random variables belonging to a fixed chaos of order q generated by a Poisson random measure on a Polish space. The problem is investigated whether convergence of the third and fourth moment of such a suitably normalized sequence to the third and fourth moment of a centred Gamma law implies convergence in distribution of the involved random variables. A positive answer is obtained for q = 2 and q = 4. The proof of this four moments theorem is based on a number of new estimates for contraction norms. Applications concern homogeneous sums and U-statistics on the Poisson space.